dgdg Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung Winds of Change: Work Arrangements in Germany July 2009 Conference on Regulating for Decent Work Dr. Ulrich Walwei Vicedirector and Professor ILO - International Labour Office Geneva, July 08 th -10 th 2009 1
Winds of Change: Work Arrangements in Germany What are we talking about? Which developments took place? What might be the reasons behind the changes? What can we conclude? 2
Work Arrangements: Standard, non-standard, precarious? employment security: permanent jobs can be terminated, temporary work may be a stepping stone working time: depending on circumstances and preferences of the individual; the level of working hours can be voluntary or involuntary cumulation of risks: recurrent unemployment, employment traps (possible alternatives such as long-term unemployment need to be born in mind) 3
Work arrangements in Germany 1991 to 2007 - Index, 1991=100-600 500 400 300 200 Total employed Part-time w ork Fixed-term contracts Self-employed Agency w orkers Multiple job holders 100 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Federal Statistical Office and Federal Employment Agency; own calculations. 4
Development of Work Arrangements in Germany from 1991 to 2007 - Thousands - 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 37446 38163 thereof: thereof: thereof. Total employed Part-time work Self-employed Fixed-term contracts Multiple job holders Agency workers 15000 10000 5000 0 4777 9036 3037 4160 3060 2228 1953 804 131 715 1991 2007 Source: Federal Employment Agency 5
Main Categories of Work Arrangements Non-standard work arrangements = Employed with less than 32 hours a week + Non-permanent workers (>31h) + Agency workers + One-person-businesses Specific types of employment = Apprenticeships + Military services + Alternative services + Unpaid family workers Standard work arrangements = Total employed - non-standard work arrangements - specific types of employment 6
Work Arrangements: Development of Main Categories - Thousands, 1991 to 2007-30000 25000 in 1000 20000 15000 Non-standard work arrangements Specific types of employment Standard work arrangements 10000 5000 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Destatis (Labour Force Survey) and Federal Employment Agency 7
Work Arrangements of Women: Development of Main Categories - Thousands, 1991 to 2007-10000 9000 8000 in 1000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 Non-standard work arrangements Specific types of employment Standard work arrangements 1000 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Destatis (Labour Force Survey) and Federal Employment Agency 8
Work Arrangements of Men: Development of Main Categories - Thousands, 1991 to 2007 - in 1000 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Non-standard work arrangements Specific types of employment Standard work arrangements 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Destatis (Labour Force Survey) and Federal Employment Agency 9
Work arrangements by age and skill levels in Germany - percentages - Age groups 15-24 24-49 50-64 Skill levels no degree qualified academics Non-standard work arrangements Standard work arrangements 1991 1999 2007 1991 1999 2007 17,7 28,9 36,2 56,2 35,9 28,1 22,8 28,4 35,0 75,0 70,4 63,9 22,8 29,2 33,6 73,9 69,4 65,3 16,6 33,7 43,1 54,9 46,9 34,0 11,0 27,6 33,9 77,0 71,0 64,8 15,1 27,4 32,1 75,7 71,9 67,5 Source: Federal Statistical Office 10
Possible Reasons for more Heterogeneity of Jobs Economic growth and business cycle Gender composition Sectoral composition Institutions (regulations, social security contributions) 11
14 12 10 Changes of GDP and Work Arrangements 1992 to 2007 -Percent - Change in GDP Change in standard work arrangements Change in non-standard work arrangements 8 6 4 2 0-2 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007-4 Source: Destatis and Federal Employment Agency; own calculations 12
Change of agency workers (percentages) Veränderung der Zahl der befristet Beschäftigten (in Prozent) Changes of GDP and Agency wokers Veränderung der Zahl der befristet Beschäftigten und - Simulation Veränderung based on des employment Bruttoinlandsproduktes elasticities (1991-2007) - -6-5 -4-3 -2-1 0 1 2 3-80 -6-5 -4-3 -2-1 0 1 2 3 30 40 20 20 10 0-10 -20-20 -40-30 -40-60 -50 Change of GDP (percentages) Quelle: Federal Statistical Office and Federal Employment Agency); own calculations 13
Development of work arrangements and sectoral composition of employment - Shift-share-analyses 1991 to 2007,shift effect as a percentage of total change - 40 35 30 25 20 Non-standard work arrangements Marginal workers Fixed-term contracts One-person-businesses Part-time workers ( 31 h) 38,4 15 11,9 10 5 0-5 -0,1 3,2 6,1 shifteffect(%) Source: Federal Statistical Office and Federal Employment Service; own calculations 14
Development of work arrangements and gender specific composition of employment - Shift-share-analyses 1991 to 2007,shift effect as a percentage of total change - 25 23,2 20 15 10 Non-standard work arrangements Marginal workers Fixed-term contracts One-person-businesses Part-time workers ( 31 h) 6,5 5 1,7 2,6 0-5 -2,5 shifteffect(%) Source: Federal Statistical Office and Federal Employment Agency; own calculations 15
Main Elements of German Labour Market Reform More flexible employment New labour market policy - Dismissal protection - Agency work - ''Mini''- and ''Midi''-Jobs - Activation as a guideline - Changes of the organisations involved - Less generous benefits for long-term unemployed - More effective programmes Expected effect: Labour market should be more absorptive and permeable Expected effect: Improved matching More flexible workers 16
OECD-Index of Employment Protection Legislation (EPL), fixed-term-contracts and agency workers in Germany 1991 to 2007 3500 3000 7,00 6,00 thousands 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Employment protection legislation regular work Fixed-term contracts 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005* 2006 2007* * No information available Source: Federal Statistical Office, Federal Employment Agency, OECD 5,00 4,00 3,00 2,00 1,00 0,00 Employment protection legislation temporary work Agency workers EPL (OECD) 17
Social security contributions and related non-standard work arrangements in Germany 1991 to 2007 Source: Federal Statistical Office, Federal Employment Agency, Institute for Employment Research 18
Winds of Change (1) - Main findings and conclusions - Composition of work arrangements is changing Significant employment gains and less structural unemployment during the recent upswing Greater polarization of employment (debate on decent'' work) 19
Winds of Change (2) - Consequences regarding the economic crisis Increased turnover during the business cycle? Question for future research Cyclical sensitiveness of temporary employment Reversal of reforms? Polarization versus permeability Employability needs to be addressed more 20
dgdg Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung July 2009 For more information: www.iab.de dgdg 21