GFDRR Country Evaluation: Update and Initial Observations Prepared for: 16 th Consultative Group Meeting May 6, 2015 Presented by: Mark Wagner, ICF International (Lead Evaluator) Jessica Kyle, ICF International (Deputy Evaluator)
Outline Overview of Evaluation Methodology Emerging Observations from Recent Fieldwork in: Ethiopia Eastern Caribbean (Saint Lucia and Dominica) Indonesia Bangladesh Next Steps 2
Evaluation Methodology Evaluation matrix guides the evaluation: Describes evaluation questions, sub-questions, data sources, and methods Key concepts: Leverage: when GFDRR s activities contribute to securing new DRM funding Influence: when GFDRR s activities contribute to improving the enabling environment for DRM or to integrating DRM into existing programs/budgets Data collection methods include: Document review Key informant interviews Focus groups Surveys 3
Fieldwork Two-person ICF evaluation teams recently conducted country visits 4
Evaluation Methodology Analysis methods will include: Qualitative analysis of stakeholder input Contribution and contextual analysis Intermediate outcome indicator mapping Triangulation This presentation reflects selected preliminary observations from desk review and fieldwork Further follow-up and analysis will inform findings and conclusions for the Technical Evaluation Report 5
Ethiopia Addis Ababa & Lasta Woreda 2-10 March 6
Evaluation Mission: Ethiopia Met with 30+ stakeholders through interviews, focus groups, and project site visits 2 5 5 7 World Bank & GFDRR National and local government Development partners NGOs 19 7
GFDRR Grants: Ethiopia GFDRR Grant Ethiopia s Disaster Risk Management Country Plan Mitigating Impacts of Adverse Shocks on Nutrition and Health Weather Risk Management Framework using Weather Based Indices Flood Risk Protection: Facilitating Provision of Baseline Vulnerability Information Implementation Support for Ethiopia Disaster Risk Management Investment Framework Building Capacity in Post- Disaster Needs Assessment Year Approved Amount (US$) 2010 Ongoing $1.275 million 2008 2010 $343,000 2009 2010 $329,000 2007 2012 $344,000 2013 Ongoing $200,000 2012 2013 $47,000 Pillar TOTAL = $2.5 Million 8
GFDRR Approach: Ethiopia GFDRR grants are used to: Test and demonstrate value of DRM approaches/tools Kick-start or pilot certain DRM activities Provide technical assistance and guidance to DRM enabling environment Linked strongly with World Bank programs Focus on drought and food security 9
Emerging Observations: Ethiopia GFDRR grants, combined with World Bank access to national ministries, have helped to shift policy dialogue toward risk reduction and preparedness GFDRR grants have influenced the extent to which DRM is integrated in World Bank programs, mostly notably Productive Safety Nets Program (PSNP-IV, US$600M) GFDRR played a key role in expanding and operationalizing the LEAP model and contributed to leveraging other donor support 10
Eastern Caribbean Saint Lucia & Dominica 24 March 2 April 11
Evaluation Mission: Eastern Caribbean Met with almost 40 stakeholders in two countries through individual and group interviews 2 5 World Bank & GFDRR National and local government Other partners / institutions 32 12
GFDRR Grants: Eastern Caribbean GFDRR Grant Hazard and Disaster Risk Assessment Framework in Saint Lucia: Preparation of Vulnerability Reduction Saint Lucia Damage and Loss Assessment of December 2013 Floods (Saint Lucia) Spatial Data Management and Identification of the Most Vulnerable Schools and Shelters in Dominica Year Approved Amount (US$) 2012 Ongoing $300,000 2013 Ongoing $50,000 2013 Ongoing $522,000 Pillar Regional Projects 2009 Ongoing $3.54 million TOTAL = $4.46 Million 13
GFDRR Approach: Eastern Caribbean Country-specific grants target: Complementary and deeper technical assistance in the larger context of World Bank programs Quick-turn around response efforts (PDNA and DaLA) Regional grants focus on: A regional approach to DRM but not a one-fits-all solution (e.g., data management, physical planners, civil works) Open dialogue, discussion, and longer-term support between Eastern Caribbean countries 14
Emerging Observations: Eastern Caribbean GFDRR disaster response activities have helped Eastern Caribbean nations to set priorities and influence DRM funding for specific investments GFDRR technical assistance and capacity building interventions have: Strengthened DRM investments in Dominica (DVRP of $38M) and St. Lucia ($68M) through coordination with PPCR and World Bank Set the stage for possible future funding (e.g., shelters in Dominica) Through CHaRIM, GFDRR has potential to improve the regional enabling environment by encouraging and supporting inter-governmental and intercountry collaboration platforms 15
Indonesia Jakarta, Yogyakarta, & Padang 23 March 2 April 16
Evaluation Mission: Indonesia Met with 90+ stakeholders through interviews, focus groups, and project site visits 4 World Bank & GFDRR 56 25 National and local government 6 Development partners NGO, academia, and civil society project implementers and/or beneficiaries 17
GFDRR Grants: Indonesia GFDRR Grant Year Approved Amount (US$) Pillar BNPB Capacity Building 2014 Ongoing $800,000 Mainstreaming DRR Phase II 2013 Ongoing $1.6 million Mainstreaming DRR Phase I 2007 2011 $1.2 million Mainstreaming DRR into PNPM 2011 Ongoing $2.4 million West Sumatra and Jambi PDNA 2009 2011 $131,000 Mainstreaming DRR into the World Bank s Local Economic Development Project in Nias 2008 2009 $50,000 TOTAL = $6.2 Million 18
GFDRR Approach: Indonesia Evolved toward a programmatic engagement after 2009 Enabled by focal point in Indonesia Engagement with GFDRR thematic programs, including safe schools, open DRI, and disaster risk financing Proof of concept approach Mainstream DRR Disaster risk financing Capacity building Resilient development Recognizes Indonesia s political economy and decentralized governance Relies on World Bank convening power at national level 19
Emerging Observations: Indonesia GFDRR has improved the enabling environment for DRM through capacity building for BNPB, local BPBDs, and community facilitators GFDRR has influenced, and has contributed to activities with potential to influence how national and local government DRM budgets are used Linkages with operations at the World Bank led to opportunities to influence World Bank investments Focal point has contributed to integration of DRR into >US$500M investment Leveraging of resources for DRM was observed on a pilot scale 20
Bangladesh Dhaka 5 9 April 21
Evaluation Mission: Bangladesh Met with 30+ stakeholders through individual and group interviews 3 5 World Bank & GFDRR National and local government 10 Development partners 15 NGOs 22
GFDRR Grants: Bangladesh GFDRR Grant Year Approved Amount (US$) Pillar Urban Earthquake Resilience Project Phase I and II 2012 Ongoing $2.8 million CEIP Research Support 2013 Ongoing $200,000 Co-financing for Rehabilitation in Cyclone Sidr-affected Areas (ECRRP) 2009 2013 $3.2 million Climate Change and Flood Risks for Agriculture (Study) 2008 2009 $61,000 Agriculture Risk Insurance Feasibility Study 2007 2010 $125,000 Background Studies for Improving Response and Recovery Action 2008 2010 $79,000 Support to UK-Bangladesh Climate Change Conference 2007 2008 $107,000 Joint DLNA for Cyclone Sidr and Capacity Building in Damage and Loss Assessment 2008 2010 2007 2013 $383,000 TOTAL = $6.9 Million approved 23
GFDRR Approach: Bangladesh GFDRR approach has ranged from stand-alone analytical studies, to substantial co-financing for ECRRP, to participatory TA Also engaged with GFDRR regional / thematic programs on disaster risk financing and open DRI Engagement has been guided by a forward-looking joint DLNA led by GFDRR and World Bank GFDRR engagement has deepened since the arrival of the focal point in late 2011 and the launch of urban resilience agenda 24
Emerging Observations: Bangladesh Participatory approach of GFDRR TA contributed to improving the enabling environment for DRM by building consensus around the need to act jointly to address seismic risk in Dhaka May be more likely to lead to longer-term behavioral changes (outcomes) and improve both the effectiveness and sustainability of DRM investments GFDRR has leveraged DRM investments, most notably the recentlyapproved $182 million urban resilience project 25
Next Steps for the Evaluation Follow-up with stakeholders and complete analysis phase to identify and validate findings; develop recommendations Prepare the Technical Evaluation Report and Country Highlights 26
Questions? 27