Regional Scan & Program Demand Report. James Sprunt Community College

Regional Scan & Program Demand Report James Sprunt Community College

Contents Executive Summary Regional Population Summary Population: Detailed Data Educational Attainment Projected High School Graduations Regional Industry Summary Regional Industries: Detailed Data Regional Occupation Summary Regional Occupations: Detailed Data Occupation Demand & Program Comparison About EMSI & the Data 3 4 5 7 10 11 12 23 24 2 32 PREPARED FOR: James Sprunt Community College REGION DEFINITION (COUNTIES): Duplin Key Terms and Concepts Understanding the following terms is crucial to interpreting the data included in this report. Introduction This report is designed to integrate and analyze data from multiple sources with the goal of helping community and technical colleges with their strategic planning efforts. The overall goal is to help colleges align their program offerings with the demographic and economic characteristics of their service regions. To do this, the report provides an overview of the region s population, economy, and workforce, using state and national comparisons where appropriate to highlight unique regional characteristics. The industry and occupation employment numbers are based on numerous published sources from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of the Census, and the National Center for Education Statistics. In addition, the report integrates industry/occupation data and projections created by the State of North Carolina, as well as neighboring states if a service region extends outside North Carolina. These data sources have been specially processed and harmonized to provide more complete and detailed data than any individual source used. For more information, see the final page of this report. Earnings: For industries, 2006 total annual earnings per worker is reported; these earnings include wages, salaries, profits, and benefits. Occupational earnings are reported as 2006 median hourly wage only. Industry: A category of business activity defined by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Jobs: Full-time and part-time positions held by proprietors and payroll employees in the public or private sector. May exceed actual worker count. Location Quotient (LQ): A measure of how "concentrated" a particular industry, occupation, or demographic group is in a region as compared to a larger reference region, e.g., state or nation. Occupation: A category of workers defined by the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC). Openings (Annual): The sum of new jobs and replacement jobs for a given occupation. Programs: Courses of postsecondary study defined by CIP (Classification of Instructional Programs) codes. Projections: Estimates of future job or population numbers based on (1) recent regional trends and (2) published forecasts created by a consensus of state and federal agencies Replacement Jobs: The estimated number of job openings in an occupation due to retirement, turnover, and other factors aside from job growth. Based on national percentages by occupation.

Executive Summary Regional Demographics From 2007 to 2013, the region can expect the total population to change by 450 persons, or 0.6%. The age groups with the highest growth are: Age Group in Persons 60 to 64 years 497 55 to 59 years 322 20 to 24 years 273 10 to 14 years 203 65 to 69 years 157 Similarly, the racial/ethnic groups with the highest expected population growth are: Group White Hispanic in Persons Critical Occupations in HighGrowth Industries The following occupations show the most growth within the top ten high-growth industries. Detailed tables begin on p. 1. Retail salespersons Home health aides Cashiers, except gaming Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners Child care workers Personal and home care aides Stock clerks and order fillers Maintenance and repair workers, general Elementary school teachers, except special education Preschool teachers, except special education 1,343 Two or more races 27 Asian 16 High-Growth Occupations (Across All Industries) Detailed tables are on pages 4 6. Educational Attainment & H.S. Graduations Total regional attainment of a college degree (any level) is below average compared to the state and below average compared to the nation. From 2007 to 2013, the total number of high school graduates in the region is expected to decline by 26. Detailed tables are on pages 7 through 10. These occupations show the most total growth across all industries. Detail table is on p. 26. Registered nurses Real estate sales agents First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers Real estate brokers Carpenters Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer Animal trainers Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants Construction managers Automotive service technicians and mechanics High-Growth Industries The following industries show the highest total job growth from 2007 to 2013: Local government Animal slaughtering and processing Department stores Home health care services Business associations Support activities for animal production Janitorial services Supermarkets and other grocery stores Lessors of residential buildings Child day care services College Programs For a quick comparison of the college s enrollment in programs related to the region s high-growth occupations, turn to page 2. 3

Regional Population Summary Knowing regional demographics can help colleges provide more targeted services. For example, regions with an aging population may require more classes for older residents to update their job skills. And, of course, a projected rise or decline in total population has serious implications for college enrollment, funding, and facilities planning. Note that nearly all regional numbers are compared to state or national averages this gives an idea of the unique situation facing the region. Regional Comparison TOTAL POPULATION CHANGE Total regional population change is below the state average. 2007 Total Region State 2013 Total % 52,275 52,724 449 1%,957,3 9,741,345 73,462 CHANGE IN POPULATION AGE 55+ The percentage of people age 55 and over in the region is expected to rise. It is above average compared to the state and below average compared to the nation. Age Total in State % of Region % of State % of Nation 2007 12,161 2,06,270 23% 23% 23% 2013 13,33 2,463,95 25% 25% 26% 2007 Total Region State Nation White, Non-Hispanic 27,41-2% 7% 3% White Hispanic 10,1 13% 25% 14% 330 2% 16% 10% 13,56-4% % 5% American Indian or Alaska Native 136 % 6% Asian 121 13% 1 13% 51 16% 17% % 174 16% 17% 12% Black or African American Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander Two or more races 2007 LQ (State) 70 to 74 years 1.13 25 to 29 years 1.10 5 to 9 years 1.10 65 to 69 years 1.07 10 to 14 years 1.06 Above-average presence compared to nation: CHANGE BY RACE, 2007 2013 Non-White Hispanic These tables show which regional demographic groups have an above-average presence in the region compared to the state and nation. This is calculated using location quotients or LQs (see p. 2). An LQ of 1.0 indicates a group accounts for an average percentage of the total population. AGE GROUPS Above-average presence compared to state: Total in Region Race/Ethnicity Concentrated Groups Age 2007 LQ (Nation) 70 to 74 years 1.14 30 to 34 years 1.11 5 to 9 years 1.10 65 to 69 years 1.0 25 to 29 years 1.06 RACE/ETHNICITY GROUPS Above-average presence compared to state: Group 2007 LQ (State) White Hispanic 3.0 Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander 1.97 Non-White Hispanic 1.31 Above-average presence compared to nation: Group 2007 LQ (Nation) Black or African American 2.16 White Hispanic 1.40 1. Note: for regions that include areas in multiple states, state data uses the sum or average of all states involved. 4

Population: Detailed Data Population by Age Details Age 2007 Population 2013 Population Under 5 years 3,46 3,59 5 to 9 years 3,02 3,721 10 to 14 years 3,651 3,54 15 to 19 years 3,712 3,644 20 to 24 years 2,794 3,067 25 to 29 years 3,40 2,93 30 to 34 years 3,731 3,434 35 to 39 years 3,714 3,751 40 to 44 years 3,793 3,791 45 to 49 years 3,705 3,635 50 to 54 years 3,526 3,649 55 to 59 years 3,060 60 to 64 years 65 to 69 years % 2007 LQ (State) 2007 LQ (Nation) 13 0% 1.06 1.06-1 -2% 1.10 1.10 203 6% 1.06 1.04-6 -2% 0.95 0.99 273 10% 0.0 0.77-57 -22% 1.10 1.06-297 -% 1.06 1.11 37 1% 0.96 1.02-2 0% 0.9 1.00-70 -2% 0.94 0.93 123 3% 0.9 0.97 3,32 322 11% 0.96 0.96 2,37 2,75 497 21% 0.92 0.95 2,021 2,17 157 % 1.07 1.0 70 to 74 years 1,697 1,710 13 1% 1.13 1.14 75 to 79 years 1,272 1,397 125 10% 1.06 1.00 0 to 4 years 2 6-14 -2% 1.00 0.90 5 years and over 51 92 77 1.04 0. 52,275 52,724 449 1% Total Source: (9/2007) 5

Population by Race/Ethnicity Details Race/Ethnicity 2007 Population 2013 Population White, Non-Hispanic 27,41 26,969 White Hispanic 10,1 11,531 330 33 Non-White Hispanic Black or African American % 2007 LQ (State) 2007 LQ (Nation) -449-2% 0.7 0.79 1,343 13% 3.0 1.40 2% 1.31 0.71 13,56 13,342-514 -4% 1.24 2.16 American Indian or Alaska Native 136 147 11 % 0.22 0.35 Asian 121 137 16 13% 0.12 0.05 51 59 16% 1.97 0.70 174 201 27 16% 0.32 0.21 Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander Two or more races Source: (9/2007) 6

Educational Attainment In today s competitive knowledge economy, advanced education, training, and skills are more vital than ever. Studies also show that higher education levels are strongly tied to higher earnings, lower unemployment rates, and improved lifestyles. Regional educational attainment levels help colleges identify educational gaps in the region s workforce (especially in comparison to state and national levels). This helps state, college, and regional policymakers form a targeted plan to increase workforce education. Note that attainment is only tracked for persons age 25 and older. Educational Attainment Summary In the region, college degree attainment is below average compared to the state and below average compared to the nation. % of Region % of State % of Nation Less Than High School Diploma 26.6% 15.% 14.5% High School Diploma or Some College 53.4% 52.0% 50.7% College Degree 20.0% 32.3% 34.7% Educational Attainment Totals, Detail Educational Level Less Than 9th Grade 9th Grade to 12th Grade 2007 Total (age 25+) % of Region (age 25+) % of State (age 25+) % of Nation (age 25+) 3,919 11.4% 5.3% 5.5% 5,246 15.2% 10.5% 9.0% 11,744 34.1% 29.5% 2.7% Some College 6,673 19.4% 22.5% 22.0% Associate's Degree 2,603 7.6% 7.1% 6.4% Degree 2,965.6% 17.1% 1.0% Graduate Degree and Higher 1,319 3.%.1% 10.3% 34,469 100% 100% 100% High School Diploma Source: (9/2007) 7

Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity COMPARISON OF COLLEGE DEGREE ATTAINMENT TO STATE AND NATION Differences are expressed in percentage points. Positive numbers indicate higher attainment levels in the region compared to the state or nation; negative numbers indicate lower attainment levels in the region. Difference in College Attainment (State) Difference in College Attainment (Nation) White, Non-Hispanic -10.6-12.3 White Hispanic -12.4-10.5 Non-White Hispanic -6.0-7. Black or African American -6.3-9.6 American Indian or Alaska Native -1.4-23.2 Asian -43.0-47. Race/Ethnicity Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander Two or more races 5.6-1.2-17.6-19.0 REGIONAL ATTAINMENT BY RACE/ETHNICITY, DETAIL 2007 Persons (age 25+) Less Than High School HS Diploma or Some College College Degree 19,720 3,599 11,235 4,5 5,362 3,25 1,561 543 170 106 50 14,96 2,111 5,442 1,416 American Indian or Alaska Native 7 4 40 0 Asian 21 54 13 Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander 32 15 9 9 Two or more races 41 27 6 34,469 9,165 1,417 6,7 Race/Ethnicity White, Non-Hispanic White Hispanic Non-White Hispanic Black or African American Source: (9/2007)

Educational Attainment by Gender In the region, females have lower high school attainment rates and higher college degree attainment rates compared to males. 2007 Total (age 25+) Less Than High School High School Diploma College Degree Males 16,95 2. 54.0% 17.1% Females 17,575 24.4% 52. 22.7% Source: (9/2007) 9

Projected High School Graduations By estimating the total number and demographic makeup of future high school graduates, colleges can be prepared to market their programs effectively to the next generation of students. If the total pool of graduates is declining, for example, then colleges must be able to recruit a greater percentage of them in order to maintain enrollments. Snapshot of Graduations by Race/Ethnicity, 2007 Projected Graduations by Race/Ethnicity Race/Ethnicity 2007 Graduations 2013 Graduations % White, Non-Hispanic White Hispanic Non-White Hispanic Black or African American 271 25-13 -5% 23 36 13 57% 1 2 1 100% 156 12-2 -1% American Indian or Alaska Native 1 1 0 0% Asian 0 0 0 0% Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander 0 0 0 0% Two or more races 3 3 0 0% 455 429-26 -6% Projected Graduations by Gender Gender 2007 Graduations 2013 Graduations % Males 243 233-10 -4% Females 212 196-16 -% Source: (9/2007) 10

Regional Industry Summary Part of a college s mission is to support the workforce needs of vital regional industries. By using several different metrics for identifying such industries, this section of the report provides a map of the region s economy, thus helping colleges allocate workforce training resources. The listing of critical occupations within high-growth industries (right column) highlights high-growth occupations in these industries. Because these occupations are not filtered by education level, they may by served by non-credit continuing education, for-credit certificate or associate s track courses, or courses designed for transfer to four-year institutions. Industries with the Most Jobs Animal slaughtering and processing Local government Crop and animal production State government Limited-service eating places Critical Occupations in HighGrowth Industries Local government: High-Growth Industries Local government Animal slaughtering and processing Department stores Home health care services Business associations Elementary school teachers, except special education Teacher assistants Secondary school teachers, except special and vocational education Middle school teachers, except special and vocational education Registered nurses Animal slaughtering and processing: Concentrated Industries These industries have an above-average share of total regional employment (compared to the U.S.): Knit fabric mills Fiber, yarn, and thread mills Animal slaughtering and processing Artificial fibers and filaments manufacturing Fruit and vegetable canning and drying Meat, poultry, and fish cutters and trimmers Helpers--Production workers Packers and packagers, hand First-line supervisors/managers of production and operating workers Maintenance and repair workers, general Department stores: Retail salespersons Cashiers, except gaming Stock clerks and order fillers First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers Customer service representatives Home health care services: Competitive Industries These industries are outperforming national trends: Department stores Support activities for animal production Fiber, yarn, and thread mills Business associations All other general purpose machinery mfg. Home health aides Personal and home care aides Registered nurses Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses Business associations: General and operations managers Business operation specialists, all other Executive secretaries and administrative assistants Maintenance and repair workers, general Office clerks, general 11

Regional Industries: Detailed Data Industry Sectors, Region and State, 2007 2013 The following table summarizes the region s economy in comparison to the state s. Broad industry sectors are sorted by total 2007 jobs. REGION NAICS Code Description 31-33 90 STATE % EPW State 2007 State 2013 State % State EPW -1% $30,11 571,52 556,220-3% $60,651 6% $3,551 14,295 60,222 6% $50,06-306 - $20,951 9,45,26-10% $17,591 2,904 321 12% $21,091 577,05 631,034 $27,432 2,516 447 22% $22,951 512,364 62,46 23% $40,919 1,996 2,326 330 17% $17,7 299,546 33,24 13% $21,530 Construction 1,56 2,007 151 % $34,622 33,703 401,625 5% $41,402 Accommodation and food services 1,305 1,472 167 13% $11,579 357,639 392,026 10% $16,166 Administrative and waste services 940 1,204 264 2% $22,161 342,454 406,936 1 $24,537 4-49 Transportation and warehousing 61 1,024 163 1 $37,44 173,261 17,672 % $46,159 42 Wholesale trade 629 654 25 4% $33,937 202,236 220,256 $60,924 54 Professional and technical services 600 773 173 2 $21,442 293,794 342,10 17% $55,059 52 Finance and insurance 509 557 4 $49,015 203,026 21,027 7% $79,320 53 Real estate and rental and leasing 471 603 132 2% $37,013 16,230 216,970 17% $40,575 71 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 16 200 32 1 $21,911 9,97 104,593 16% $29,790 55 Management of companies and enterprises 165 146-19 -12% $50,92 75,41 3,732 11% $91,516 51 Information 111 129 1 16% $70,119 9,15 107,752 21% $66,662 61 Educational services 2 105 23 2% $13,595 95,99 119,933 25% $30,220 22 Utilities 55 47 - -15% $63,426 14,703 13,907-5% $92,555 21 Mining 10 7-3 -30% $5,620 6,125 6,644 % $62,50 27,592 29,760 2,16 % $27,921 5,3,069 5,925,93 10% $42,944 2007 Jobs 2013 Jobs Manufacturing 5,57 5,1-39 Government 3,33 4,01 24 11 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 3,493 3,17 44-45 Retail trade 2,53 62 Health care and social assistance 2,069 1 Other services, except public administration 23 72 56 Source: (9/2007) EPW stands for earnings per worker, which is the total wage, salary, bonuses, and other compensation paid in the industry divided by the number of workers. Note that for regions including areas in multiple states, the State values are the sum or average of the values for all states involved. Industry sectors and specific industries in the following sections are listed by NAICS code. For more information, see http://www.bls.gov/bls/naics.htm. 12

Regional Industries Providing the Most Jobs, 2007 This section shows industries at a much greater level of detail than the sectors on the previous page. NAICS Code Description 2007 Jobs 2013 Jobs % 2006 EPW 31161 93000 Animal slaughtering and processing 3,3 4,025 17 5% $23,19 Local government 2,93 3,19 206 7% $37,670 11A00 Crop and animal production 2,375 1,962-413 -17% $15,972 92000 State government 639 67 4 % $37,93 72221 Limited-service eating places 593 637 44 7% $10,5 1391 Business associations 546 693 147 27% $20,29 11511 Support activities for crop production 542 590 4 $24,124 72211 Full-service restaurants 519 51 62 12% $11,057 31311 Fiber, yarn, and thread mills 515 411-104 -20% $30,212 44511 Supermarkets and other grocery stores 460 53 7 17% $1,969 62311 Nursing care facilities 426 41 - -2% $1,5 62161 Home health care services 416 57 171 41% $16,237 31142 Fruit and vegetable canning and drying 404 421 17 4% $26,172 1411 Private households 35 419 34 $6,516 11521 Support activities for animal production 351 436 5 24% $45,924 62441 Child day care services 346 415 69 20% $13,424 45211 Department stores 310 490 10 5% $1,653 44711 Gasoline stations with convenience stores 306 344 3 12% $24,933 56172 Janitorial services 254 339 5 33% $1,062 4411 General freight trucking, local 252 316 64 25% $30,73 Source: (9/2007) 13

Highest Growth Regional Industries, 2007 2013 These industries are projected to add the most total jobs. NAICS Code Description 2007 Jobs 2013 Jobs % 2006 EPW 93000 31161 Local government 2,93 3,19 206 7% $37,670 Animal slaughtering and processing 3,3 4,025 17 5% 45211 $23,19 Department stores 310 490 10 5% $1,653 62161 Home health care services 416 57 171 41% $16,237 1391 Business associations 546 693 147 27% $20,29 11521 Support activities for animal production 351 436 5 24% $45,924 56172 Janitorial services 254 339 5 33% $1,062 44511 Supermarkets and other grocery stores 460 53 7 17% $1,969 53111 Lessors of residential buildings 174 245 71 41% $41,162 62441 Child day care services 346 415 69 20% $13,424 4411 General freight trucking, local 252 316 64 25% $30,73 72211 Full-service restaurants 519 51 62 12% $11,057 62331 Community care facilities for the elderly 169 230 61 36% $16,793 33399 All other general purpose machinery mfg. 3 90 52 137% $139, 72111 Hotels and motels, except casino hotels 130 12 52 40% $14,521 2399 All other specialty trade contractors 213 264 51 24% $24,906 62111 Offices of physicians 224 273 49 22% $51,513 92000 State government 639 67 4 % $37,93 11511 Support activities for crop production 542 590 4 $24,124 72221 Limited-service eating places 593 637 44 7% $10,5 Source: (9/2007) 14

Most Concentrated Regional Industries, 2007 2013 Location quotients (LQs) are a way of measuring an industry s regional concentration. A region with an average presence (or concentration) of a certain industry, compared to the national economy, will have an LQ of 1.0 for that industry. High-LQ industries are generally ones that are important to the region s economic base that is, they bring money into the region rather than circulating what is already there. As such, they are important targets for retention, expansion, and workforce development efforts. Note: circle size indicates number of jobs in the industry. NAICS Code Description 2013 Jobs 2007 LQ 31324 Knit fabric mills 31311 Fiber, yarn, and thread mills 134 3 515 411 31161 Animal slaughtering and processing 32522 Artificial fibers and filaments manufacturing 3,3 4,025 139 52 31142 Fruit and vegetable canning and drying 404 32511 Petrochemical manufacturing 102 11321 Forest nursery and gathering forest products 11521 Support activities for animal production 31111 Animal food manufacturing 1391 Business associations 33122 42442 33111 2007 Jobs 2007-2013 % in LQ 2006 EPW 1.55 $33,252 76.6 32% $30,212 4.40-4% $23,19 32.09-3% $26,75 421 29.34 10% $26,172 46 24.61-40% $63,004 16 24 1.01 33% $49,095 351 436 11.40 36% $45,924 9 107 11.26 27% $64,373 546 693 10.91 1% $20,29 Rolling and drawing of purchased steel 53 54 10.3 1% $19,959 Packaged frozen food merchant wholesalers 4 37 10.0-20% $33,392 Iron and steel mills and ferroalloy mfg. 136 141 9.46 22% $43,557 11511 Support activities for crop production 542 590 7.63 0% $24,124 11331 Logging 146 123 7.31-14% $34,444 31529 Other cut and sew apparel manufacturing 24 6 7.25-57% $77,39 31122 Starch and vegetable oil manufacturing 29 2 6.93 0% $237,451 11A00 Crop and animal production 2,375 1,962 5.42 0% $15,972 11421 Hunting and trapping 12 12 4.49 0% $45,535 42491 Farm supplies merchant wholesalers 69 7 4.02 25% $34,550 Source: (9/2007) 15

Most Competitive Regional Industries, 2007 2013 The regional competitiveness of an industry can be quantified using the standard shift share method. This method generates a competitiveness effect for the industry, which is basically regional job growth in the industry that exceeded national trends. These national trends include the percent growth of the U.S. economy and the percent growth of the given industry at the national level. The higher the competitiveness effect, the more the regional industry is outperforming national averages. Industries with a high competitiveness effect can give clues about the region s comparative advantages, and are prime targets for regional workforce initiatives. INDUSTRIES WITH HIGHEST COMPETITIVE EFFECT NAICS Code Description Job Ind. Mix Effect Natl. Effect Expected Competitive Effect 45211 Department stores 11521 Support activities for animal production 10 5 5-56 24 29 151 27-2 113 31311 Fiber, yarn, and thread mills 1391 Business associations -104 147-246 40-206 102 9 43 52 33399 All other general purpose machinery mfg. 96 52-3 -5 44511 57 Supermarkets and other grocery stores 77-16 36 20 57 53111 Lessors of residential buildings 71 6 14 20 51 56172 Janitorial services 5 15 20 35 49 4411 General freight trucking, local 64-2 20 17 47 45439 Other direct selling establishments 36-26 20-7 43 62161 Home health care services 171 9 32 131 40 72111 Hotels and motels, except casino hotels 52 2 10 13 39 54141 Interior design services 40 2 2 4 36 44711 Gasoline stations with convenience stores 3-17 24 7 31 52392 Portfolio management 30-6 -1 31 31142 Fruit and vegetable canning and drying 17-45 32-14 31 1131 Commercial machinery repair and maintenance 32-9 10 1 31 16

Industries With Highest Competitive Effect (Cont.) NAICS Code Description Job Ind. Mix Effect Natl. Effect Expected Competitive Effect 42345 Medical equipment merchant wholesalers 36 3 2 5 30 32619 Other plastics product manufacturing 24-12 7-5 29 1411 Private households 34-23 30 7 27 Source: (9/2007) NOTE ON SHIFT SHARE TERMINOLOGY In shift share analysis, expected job growth is based on the total regional industry jobs at the beginning of the timeframe, the regional jobs that could be attributed to the growth rate of the national economy during the timeframe ( national growth effect ), and the regional jobs that could be attributed to the growth rate of the same industry at the national level during the timeframe ( industry mix effect ). The difference between this expected job change and actual job change is called the regional competitiveness effect. 17

Critical Occupations in High-Growth Industries The following tables show the highest-growth occupations within each of the highest-growth regional industries from 2007 to 2013. They provide a business-oriented view of the most in-demand jobs over that timeframe, and the demand-driven college will seek to align its offerings accordingly. Many jobs found here, especially with an education level of short-term or moderate-term on-the-job training (ST OJT or ), are likely to be good candidates for industry-oriented continuing education programs. Education level abbreviations: : Short-term on-the-job training; : Moderate-term on-the-job training; LT OJT: Longterm on-the-job training; : Work experience in a related field; PS Award: Postsecondary award; Associate's: Associate's degree; : degree; DG + Exp.: Degree plus work experience; Master's: Master's degree; Doctoral: Doctoral degree; Prof. DG: First professional degree Critical Occupations: Local government Job Growth (In Industry) Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) Average Education Elementary school teachers, except special education 26 $16.60 Teacher assistants 15 $7.61 Secondary school teachers, except special and vocational education Occupation 11 $15.9 Middle school teachers, except special and vocational education 9 $15.67 Registered nurses $21.16 Associate's Special education teachers, preschool, kindergarten, and elementary school $15.72 Fire fighters 7 $13.22 LT OJT Police and sheriff's patrol officers 7 $12.57 LT OJT Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners 5 $7.17 Emergency medical technicians and paramedics 5 $10.95 PS Award Source: (9/2007) Critical Occupations: Animal slaughtering and processing Job Growth (In Industry) Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) Average Education Meat, poultry, and fish cutters and trimmers 25 $7.66 Helpers--Production workers 16 $.43 Packers and packagers, hand 15 $6.43 First-line supervisors/managers of production and operating workers 14 $1.36 Maintenance and repair workers, general 13 $13.15 Team assemblers 12 $9.00 Slaughterers and meat packers 12 $.34 Industrial machinery mechanics $19.09 LT OJT Extruding, forming, pressing, and compacting machine setters, operators, and tenders 7 $9.61 Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners 5 $7.17 Occupation Source: (9/2007) 1

Critical Occupations: Department stores Job Growth (In Industry) Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) Average Education Retail salespersons 92 $7.75 Cashiers, except gaming 27 $6.23 Stock clerks and order fillers 25 $.14 First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers 10 $12.27 Customer service representatives $10.50 Shipping, receiving, and traffic clerks $10.24 Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food $6.14 Pharmacy technicians $9.61 Pharmacists $41.20 Prof. DG First-line supervisors/managers of office and administrative support workers $15.1 Job Growth (In Industry) Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) Average Education Home health aides 90 $7.03 Personal and home care aides 30 $6.33 Registered nurses 14 $21.16 Associate's Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 11 $9.07 PS Award 6 $14.25 PS Award Occupation Source: (9/2007) Critical Occupations: Home health care services Occupation Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses Psychiatric aides $7.09 Medical and health services managers $25.70 DG + Exp. Physical therapists $29.27 Master's General and operations managers $31.24 DG + Exp. Office clerks, general $.13 Source: (9/2007) 19

Critical Occupations: Business associations Job Growth (In Industry) Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) General and operations managers 9 $31.24 DG + Exp. Business operation specialists, all other 9 $20.10 Executive secretaries and administrative assistants $12.22 Maintenance and repair workers, general 7 $13.15 Office clerks, general 7 $.13 Public relations specialists 7 $15.41 Customer service representatives 5 $10.50 Receptionists and information clerks 5 $.4 Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners 5 $7.17 $10.93 Occupation Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks Average Education Source: (9/2007) Critical Occupations: Support activities for animal production Job Growth (In Industry) Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) Average Education Animal trainers 24 $7.45 Nonfarm animal caretakers 19 $6.70 Farmers and ranchers 13 $6.15 LT OJT 5 $13.46 DG + Exp. Supervisors, farming, fishing, and forestry workers $17.29 Conservation scientists $1.57 Foresters $1.0 Managers, all other $24.61 Forest and conservation workers $7.77 Commercial pilots $20.36 PS Award Occupation Farm, ranch, and other agricultural managers Source: (9/2007) 20

Critical Occupations: Janitorial services Job Growth (In Industry) Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) Average Education Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners 26 $7.17 Maids and housekeeping cleaners 1 $6.15 Building cleaning workers, all other 15 $.29 9 $9.92 Occupation First-line supervisors/managers of housekeeping and janitorial workers Laundry and dry-cleaning workers $7.07 Managers, all other $24.61 Pest control workers $9.23 General and operations managers $31.24 DG + Exp. Chief executives $60.09 DG + Exp. Maintenance and repair workers, general $13.15 Source: (9/2007) Critical Occupations: Supermarkets and other grocery stores Job Growth (In Industry) Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) Average Education 22 $6.23 Packers and packagers, hand $6.43 Stock clerks and order fillers 7 $.14 Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food 6 $6.14 Food preparation workers 6 $6.4 First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers $12.27 Butchers and meat cutters $9.73 LT OJT Retail salespersons $7.75 Customer service representatives $10.50 First-line supervisors/managers of food preparation and serving workers $10.69 Occupation Cashiers, except gaming Source: (9/2007) 21

Critical Occupations: Lessors of residential buildings Job Growth (In Industry) Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) Real estate sales agents 20 $16.0 PS Award Real estate brokers 20 $14.57 Property, real estate, and community association managers 12 $17.45 Appraisers and assessors of real estate $15.03 PS Award Maintenance and repair workers, general $13.15 Chief executives $60.09 DG + Exp. Building cleaning workers, all other $.29 Counter and rental clerks $.40 Maids and housekeeping cleaners $6.15 Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners $7.17 Job Growth (In Industry) Median Hourly Wage (All Industries) Average Education 36 $6.30 Preschool teachers, except special education 23 $6.6 PS Award Teacher assistants $7.61 Education administrators, preschool and child care center/program $15.52 DG + Exp. Kindergarten teachers, except special education $16.56 Bus drivers, school $.7 Education administrators, all other $23.76 DG + Exp. Education administrators, elementary and secondary school $24.9 DG + Exp. First-line supervisors/managers of personal service workers $11.11 Education administrators, postsecondary $22.70 DG + Exp. Occupation Average Education Source: (9/2007) Critical Occupations: Child day care services Occupation Child care workers Source: (9/2007) 22

Regional Occupation Summary Employment outlooks organized by occupation provide a more workforce-oriented (rather than industryoriented) perspective. These are jobs that are in demand across all industries in the region. All tables except those showing major occupation groups have been filtered to include only occupations with an average education level between Moderate-term on-the-job training and Bachelor s degree inclusive. These jobs can be well-served through the development of for-credit certificate, associate s, or transfer programs. Occupation Groups Providing the Most Jobs The major occupation groups accounting for the most total regional jobs in 2007 are: Production occupations Sales and related occupations Transportation and material moving occupations Office and administrative support occupations Management occupations Specific Occupations Providing the Most Jobs The largest specific occupations are: Farmers and ranchers First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks Maintenance and repair workers, general Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer High-Growth Occupations The occupations with the most total new jobs from 2007 to 2013 are: Registered nurses Real estate sales agents First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers Real estate brokers Carpenters Occupations with Most Total Openings The occupations with the most estimated openings (new jobs plus replacement jobs) are: Registered nurses Maintenance and repair workers, general Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer Elementary school teachers, except special education 23

Regional Occupations: Detailed Data Major Occupation Groups, Region and State, 2007 2013 The following table summarizes regional occupations by major group, sorted by total 2007 jobs. REGION STATE SOC Code Description 2007 Jobs 2013 Jobs State 2007 State 2013 State Median Earnings 51 Production occupations 3,475 3,455-20 -1% 559 $10.52 423,917 425,02 $12.7 41 Sales and related occupations 2,943 3,304 361 12% 501 $10.62 673,532 743,016 $13.29 53 Transportation and material moving occupations 2,922 3,050 12 4% 535 $9.43 354,515 379,474 $12.39 43 Office and administrative support occupations 2,65 3,039 174 6% 4 $10.54 70,523 754,171 $13.15 11 Management occupations 2,05 2,55 50 2% 244 $1.52 3,345 423,146 $31.69 47 Construction and extraction occupations 1,54 1,65 110 7% 213 $12.25 307,133 325,597 $14.01 35 Food preparation and serving related occupations 1,44 1,635 151 10% 437 $6.0 372,191 411,20 $7.62 49 Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations 1,464 1,55 94 6% 252 $14.70 215,096 234,240 $16.71 25 Education, training, and library occupations 1,35 1,536 151 11% 23 $12.67 240,249 272,624 $14.69 37 Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations 1,261 1,434 173 14% 194 $7.52 22,06 259,209 $.71 39 Personal care and service occupations 1,261 1,444 13 15% 19 $7.12 190,335 223,29 $.46 31 Healthcare support occupations 79 1,075 196 22% 217 $.31 152,997 196,015 $10.20 29 Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations 52 993 141 17% 194 $23.26 239,774 21,557 $31.27 13 Business and financial operations occupations 612 710 9 16% 90 $21.03 217,74 24,111 $22.94 27 Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations 34 417 69 20% 32 $12.74 112,11 127,996 $15.13 33 Protective service occupations 306 334 2 1 $11.92 92,934 103,711 $14.0 45 Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations 301 24-17 -6% 55 $9.20 15,729 15,215 $9.92 21 Community and social services occupations 207 236 29 14% 51 $14.03 66,709 79,76 $16.21 19 Life, physical, and social science occupations 10 197 17 29 $1.77 55,52 63,97 $23.75 15 Computer and mathematical science occupations 167 210 43 26% 32 $21.52 102,034 123,505 $30.36 17 Architecture and engineering occupations 140 153 13 25 $22.16 6,679 75,53 $26.61 55 Military Occupations 129 121 - -6% 19 $21.9 131,464 123,061 $26.11 23 Legal occupations 59 65 6 10% $2.92 29,915 35,299 $30.55 27,592 29,760 2,16 % 4,72 $12.06 5,3,065 5,925,936 $16.1 % Repl. Median Jobs Earnings Source: (9/2007) Note: For regions including areas in multiple states, state values are the sum or average of all states involved. 24

Top-Ranked Occupations by Total Jobs, 2007 Occupations have been filtered by average education level to include only those between Moderateterm on-the-job training and Bachelor s degree inclusive. SOC Code Description 2007 Jobs 2013 Jobs % Repl. Jobs Median Earnings Education Level 11-9012 Farmers and ranchers 1,091 1,000-91 -% 24 $6.15 LT OJT 41-1011 First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers 509 545 36 7% 45 $12.27 43-3031 Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks 400 395-5 -1% 53 $10.93 49-9042 Maintenance and repair workers, general 39 424 26 7% 77 $13.15 53-3032 Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer 352 37 35 10% 53 $11.77 31-1012 Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 342 373 31 70 $9.07 PS Award 47-2031 Carpenters 329 365 36 11% 44 $11.47 LT OJT 51-3021 Butchers and meat cutters 290 296 6 2% 53 $9.73 LT OJT 43-6014 Secretaries, except legal, medical, and executive 27 23-4 -1% 34 $10.14 25-2021 Elementary school teachers, except special education 275 302 27 10% 59 $16.60 51-2092 Team assemblers 270 294 24 50 $9.00 51-1011 First-line supervisors/managers of production and operating workers 269 27 9 3% 37 $1.36 29-1111 Registered nurses 260 309 49 1 72 $21.16 Associate's 41-4012 Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products 253 257 4 2% 52 $15.37 47-1011 First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers 250 271 21 % 2 $17.2 11-9021 Construction managers 21 247 29 13% 20 $24.52 49-9041 Industrial machinery mechanics 216 21 2 1% 21 $19.09 LT OJT 39-2011 Animal trainers 214 24 34 16% 13 $7.45 11-9199 Managers, all other 213 22 15 7% 22 $24.61 47-2061 Construction laborers 20 220 12 6% 17 $7.0 Source: (9/2007) 25

Top-Ranked Occupations by Total Growth, 2007 2013 Occupations have been filtered by average education level to include only those between Moderateterm on-the-job training and Bachelor s degree inclusive. SOC Code Description 2007 Jobs 2013 Jobs % Repl. Jobs Median Earnings Education Level 29-1111 41-9022 Registered nurses 260 309 49 1 72 $21.16 Associate's Real estate sales agents 125 163 3 30% 5 $16.0 PS Award 41-1011 First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers 509 545 36 7% 45 $12.27 41-9021 Real estate brokers 119 155 36 30% 1 $14.57 47-2031 Carpenters 329 365 36 11% 44 $11.47 LT OJT 53-3032 Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer 352 37 35 10% 53 $11.77 39-2011 Animal trainers 214 24 34 16% 13 $7.45 31-1012 Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 342 373 31 70 $9.07 PS Award 11-9021 Construction managers 21 247 29 13% 20 $24.52 49-3023 Automotive service technicians and mechanics 17 205 27 15% 41 $13.17 PS Award 25-2011 Preschool teachers, except special education 129 157 2 22% 36 $6.6 PS Award 25-2021 Elementary school teachers, except special education 275 302 27 10% 59 $16.60 43-4051 Customer service representatives 160 17 27 17% 32 $10.50 49-9042 Maintenance and repair workers, general 39 424 26 7% 77 $13.15 13-2011 Accountants and auditors 162 1 26 16% 2 $24.55 11-9141 Property, real estate, and community association managers 5 110 25 2 5 $17.45 51-2092 Team assemblers 270 294 24 50 $9.00 29-2041 Emergency medical technicians and paramedics 99 123 24 24% 20 $10.95 PS Award 47-2141 Painters, construction and maintenance 149 171 22 15% 19 $11.33 47-1011 First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers 250 271 21 % 2 $17.2 Source: (9/2007) 26

Top-Ranked Occupations by New + Repl. Jobs, 2007 2013 Occupations have been filtered by average education level to include only those between Moderateterm on-the-job training and Bachelor s degree inclusive. SOC Code Description 2007 Jobs 2013 Jobs New + Repl. Jobs Median Earnings Education Level 29-1111 49-9042 Registered nurses 260 309 121 $21.16 Associate's Maintenance and repair workers, general 39 424 103 $13.15 31-1012 Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 342 373 101 $9.07 PS Award 53-3032 Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer 352 37 $11.77 25-2021 Elementary school teachers, except special education 275 302 6 $16.60 41-1011 First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers 509 545 1 $12.27 47-2031 Carpenters 329 365 0 $11.47 LT OJT 51-2092 Team assemblers 270 294 74 $9.00 49-3023 Automotive service technicians and mechanics 17 205 6 $13.17 PS Award 25-2011 Preschool teachers, except special education 129 157 64 $6.6 PS Award 43-4051 Customer service representatives 160 17 59 $10.50 51-3021 Butchers and meat cutters 290 296 59 $9.73 LT OJT 41-4012 Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products 253 257 56 $15.37 13-2011 Accountants and auditors 162 1 54 $24.55 51-3023 Slaughterers and meat packers 176 17 50 $.34 11-9021 Construction managers 21 247 49 $24.52 47-1011 First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers 250 271 49 $17.2 43-3031 Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks 400 395 4 $10.93 43-6011 Executive secretaries and administrative assistants 10 196 4 $12.22 39-2011 Animal trainers 214 24 47 $7.45 Source: (9/2007) 27

Occupation Demand & Program Comparison This section compares regional occupations with the most annual openings to the college s current enrollment by program, with the goal of indicating where the college might look to increase its capacity. The occupations are taken directly from the "Top-Ranked Occupations by New + Repl. Jobs" table on the previous page. Related programs associated with occupations are identified using a crosswalk developed by the U.S. Department of Education with some customizations by EMSI. College enrollment numbers by CIP code are provided by the North Carolina Community College System. Summary: High-Demand Occupations and Related Enrollment 2007-2013 Avg. Annual Openings Median Hourly Earnings Annual Enrollment at College, All Related Programs Registered nurses 20 $21.16 95 Maintenance and repair workers, general 17 $13.15 Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 17 $9.07 Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer 15 $11.77 Elementary school teachers, except special education 14 $16.60 First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers 13 $12.27 Carpenters 13 $11.47 Team assemblers 12 $9.00 Automotive service technicians and mechanics 12 $13.17 2 Preschool teachers, except special education 11 $6.6 11 Customer service representatives 10 $10.50 Butchers and meat cutters Description 25 10 $9.73 Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products 9 $15.37 Accountants and auditors 9 $24.55 Slaughterers and meat packers $.34 First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers $17.2 72 Construction managers $24.52 74 Executive secretaries and administrative assistants $12.22 4 Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks $10.93 16 First-line supervisors/managers of production and operating workers $1.36 29 Source: (9/2007) Note that many occupations have multiple related programs and vice versa, so students enrolled in a program may be included in more than one row in the table above. Average annual openings is total new and replacement jobs divided by the number of years in the given timeframe. 2

Detail: High-Demand Occupations and Related Program Enrollment Occupation Registered nurses 2007-2013 Avg. Annual Openings 20 Median Hourly Earnings Related Programs $21.16 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Annual Enrollment at College 95 Adult Health Nurse/Nursing Public Health/Community Nurse/Nursing Nurse Anesthetist Perioperative/Operating Room and Surgical Nurse/Nursing Family Practice Nurse/Nurse Practitioner Maternal/Child Health and Neonatal Nurse/Nursing Clinical Nurse Specialist Nurse Midwife/Nursing Midwifery Critical Care Nursing Pre-Nursing Studies Nursing Science (MS, PhD) Occupational and Environmental Health Nursing Health/Medical Preparatory Programs, Other Pediatric Nurse/Nursing Nursing, Other Nursing/Registered Nurse (RN, ASN, BSN, MSN) 95 Psychiatric/Mental Health Nurse/Nursing Maintenance and repair workers, general 17 $13.15 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Building/Construction Site Management/Manager Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 17 $9.07 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Nurse/Nursing Assistant/Aide and Patient Care Assistant Health Aide Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer 15 $11.77 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Truck and Bus Driver/Commercial Vehicle Operation Elementary school teachers, except special education 14 $16.60 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 25 Montessori Teacher Education Waldorf/Steiner Teacher Education Education, General Elementary Education and Teaching 25 Teacher Education, Multiple Levels First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers 13 $12.27 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Floriculture/Floristry Operations and Management Specialized Merchandising, Sales, and Marketing Operations, Other Retailing and Retail Operations Selling Skills and Sales Operations Business, Management, Marketing, and Related Support Services, Other E-Commerce/Electronic Commerce Special Products Marketing Operations Consumer Merchandising/Retailing Management Carpenters 13 $11.47 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Carpentry/Carpenter Team assemblers 12 $9.00 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 29

Occupation Automotive service technicians and mechanics 2007-2013 Avg. Annual Openings 12 Median Hourly Earnings Related Programs $13.17 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Annual Enrollment at College 2 Vehicle Emissions Inspection and Maintenance Technology/Technician Medium/Heavy Vehicle and Truck Technology/Technician Alternative Fuel Vehicle Technology/Technician Automotive Engineering Technology/Technician Automobile/Automotive Mechanics Technology/Technician Preschool teachers, except special education 11 $6.6 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Child Care and Support Services Management 2 11 4 Waldorf/Steiner Teacher Education Education, General Kindergarten/Preschool Education and Teaching Early Childhood Education and Teaching 133 Montessori Teacher Education Customer service representatives 10 $10.50 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Receptionist Customer Service Support/Call Center/Teleservice Operation Butchers and meat cutters 10 $9.73 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 9 $15.37 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Meat Cutting/Meat Cutter Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products Sales, Distribution, and Marketing Operations, General Specialized Merchandising, Sales, and Marketing Operations, Other General Merchandising, Sales, and Related Marketing Operations, Other Fashion Merchandising Business, Management, Marketing, and Related Support Services, Other Apparel and Accessories Marketing Operations Special Products Marketing Operations Accountants and auditors 9 $24.55 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 29 Accounting and Finance Accounting and Computer Science Accounting and Business/Management Accounting 29 Auditing Taxation Slaughterers and meat packers $.34 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Meat Cutting/Meat Cutter First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers $17.2 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 72 Electrical and Power Transmission Installers, Other Building/Construction Site Management/Manager Building/Property Maintenance and Management Mason/Masonry 32 Concrete Finishing/Concrete Finisher 30

Occupation 2007-2013 Avg. Annual Openings Median Hourly Earnings Related Programs Annual Enrollment at College Building/Construction Finishing, Management, and Inspection, Other Construction Management Carpentry/Carpenter Building/Home/Construction Inspection/Inspector Plumbing Technology/Plumber Drywall Installation/Drywaller Well Drilling/Driller Electrical and Power Transmission Installation/Installer, General Glazier Blasting/Blaster Electrician 40 Painting/Painter and Wall Coverer Construction Trades, Other Lineworker Roofer Construction managers $24.52 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 74 Business/Commerce, General Business Administration and Management, General 74 Operations Management and Supervision Construction Engineering Technology/Technician Executive secretaries and administrative assistants $12.22 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 4 Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science, General Medical Administrative/Executive Assistant and Medical Secretary Executive Assistant/Executive Secretary Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks $10.93 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS 4 16 Accounting and Related Services, Other Accounting Technology/Technician and Bookkeeping First-line supervisors/managers of production and operating workers 16 $1.36 TOTAL, ALL RELATED PROGRAMS Operations Management and Supervision Source: (9/2007) 31

About EMSI & the Data (EMSI) is a professional services firm that specializes in integrated, value-added datasets, web-based analysis tools (Strategic Advantage), data-driven reports, and custom consulting. EMSI s comprehensive dataset is generated from over 70 state, federal, and private sources. Population Data EMSI s custom population data and projections are based on several sources, including the 1990 and 2000 Census, U.S. Census Bureau annual estimates (including net migration), localized fertility/mortality rates by race/ethnicity and gender from the U.S. Health Department, and even projected regional job growth estimated from state and national employment projections, on the assumption that people will follow jobs. Educational Attainment Data EMSI s educational attainment numbers are based on Census 1990, Census 2000, the Current Population Survey, and EMSI s demographic data. By combining these sources, EMSI interpolates for missing years and projects data at the county level. Educational attainment data cover only the population aged 25 years or more and indicate the highest level achieved. High School Graduation Data High school graduation data are created by EMSI using the U.S. Department of Education s National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), as well as from EMSI s own demographic projections. Because the race/ethnicity categories used by NCES are somewhat different from EMSI s standard categories, they are converted to EMSI s categories. In addition, every year there are some U.S. counties with missing data, so EMSI generates estimates based on a regression of demographically and economically similar counties. Finally, the original numbers do not include private school graduations, so EMSI adds in estimates of these numbers based on a state-level NCES data source, using interpolation techniques to distribute the numbers to the county level. Industry Data In order to capture a complete picture of industry employment, EMSI basically combines covered employment data from Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) produced by the Department of Labor with total employment data in Regional Economic Information System (REIS) published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), augmented with County Business Patterns (CBP) and Nonemployer Statistics (NES) published by the U.S. Census Bureau. Projections are based on the latest available EMSI industry data combined with past trends in each industry and the industry growth rates in national projections (Bureau of Labor Statistics) and states own projections, where available. Occupation Data Organizing regional employment information by occupation provides a workforce-oriented view of the regional economy. EMSI s occupation data are based on EMSI s industry data and regional staffing patterns taken from the Occupational Employment Statistics program (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics). Wage information is partially derived from the American Community Survey. The occupation-toprogram (SOC-to-CIP) crosswalk is based on one from the U.S. Department of Education, with customizations by EMSI. 32