CITY OF PROVIDENCE: ECONOMIC CLUSTER STRATEGY Presentation to City Council Final Analysis November 18 th, 2015
CONTENTS I. Goals and Preview II. III. IV. Economic Foundation Clusters and Actions Recommendations 2
GOALS OF THE CLUSTER STRATEGY Understand the opportunities to retain and grow existing industries and emerging Identify attraction targets Understand regional opportunities 3
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS PREVIEW + Conduct Feasibility for Food Cluster Actions diverse potential; critical mass of potential partners + Market Strong and Unique Clusters utilize information from this report to promote Life Sciences Food Cluster Social Enterprise Design and Advanced Manufacturing Ed Tech + Develop Innovation Center for Design and Manufacturing active discussion about creating a center in Providence + Partner with State programs Real Jobs and Commerce RI to benefit residents and businesses + Continue to Improve Predictability and Reliability of City Financing Programs businesses want a clear understanding of what to expect and process 4
THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FOUNDATION 5
INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT FOR RESIDENTS Resident Employment by Industry, 2013 As a percentage of the employed population 16 years and over City of Providence, RI Providence County, RI Providence- Warwick, RI-MA Metro Area Rhode Island New England Industry Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 1.9% Construction 3.8% 4.7% 5.6% 5.0% 5.8% 6.2% Manufacturing 12.6% 12.1% 11.3% 11.2% 10.3% 10.5% Wholesale trade 2.1% 2.6% 2.9% 2.3% 2.5% 2.8% Retail trade 10.4% 12.5% 12.6% 12.0% 11.4% 11.6% Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 2.6% 3.5% 3.7% 3.6% 3.7% 4.9% Information 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 2.2% 2.2% Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing 4.5% 6.6% 6.8% 7.0% 7.6% 6.7% Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste management 10.5% 9.6% 9.4% 9.7% 11.5% 10.8% Educational services, and health care and social assistance 31.6% 27.9% 26.9% 27.4% 27.1% 23.2% Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food services 13.1% 10.0% 9.8% 10.6% 8.6% 9.3% Other services, except public administration 4.9% 4.8% 4.6% 4.6% 4.5% 5.0% Public administration 2.2% 3.9% 4.4% 4.4% 4.1% 5.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009-2013 5-Year American Community Survey New England consists of Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont United States A higher percentage of City residents work in Manufacturing, Education & Health Care, and the Arts/Hospitality industries compared to the surrounding area and the U.S. The City has a relatively similar proportion of residents employed in the professional, scientific, and management industry compared to the surrounding area and the U.S; this industry is generally associated with higher wages. 6
GROWTH AND OUTMIGRATION Total population has grown AND there are more jobs for people living outside the city. Change 2002-2011 9,101 But more of those workers are choosing to live outside the city 2,958 2,516-2,072-6,143 Work in the City, Live Outside (Change) City Employment Change City Population Change Live in the City, Work Outside (Change) Source: Census On the Map, City of Providence Live and Work in the City (Change) 7
POPULATION GROWTH & MIGRATION Nearly 1,000 more residents from abroad in 2013 vs 2009 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 Providence City, Residence Prior Year Total Population 169,635 178,056 Abroad + 8,421 Different county Same county A Growing Population + Population grew by 8,421 residents from 2009 to 2013 + Total foreign born population grew by 3,586-43% of the net growth 53,496 Foreign Born Residents in 2013 Europe 7% 60,000 40,000 Same house Asia 16% 20,000 0 2009 2013 Latin America 67% Africa 10% Source: Census American Community Survey 8
COMMUTING PATTERNS 2011 CITY The City of Providence is an employment center 78 percent (86,899) of people working in the City commuted in 21 percent (24,245) of people working in the City were City residents Half of working City residents were employed outside of the City Top 3 sources of City of Providence-based workers: Providence County, RI (60 percent) Kent County, RI (13 percent) Bristol County, MA (7 percent) Top 3 employment destinations for City residents: Providence County, RI (80 percent) Kent County, RI (11 percent) Washington County, RI (3 percent) Source: U.S.Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies 9
LOSING YOUNG WORKING RESIDENTS Change 2002-2011 10,000 8,000 Increases in workers 55 and older, especially those living outside the City 6,000 4,000 2,000 0-2,000 55 or older 30 to 54 29 or younger -4,000-6,000-8,000 Loss of younger workers Live in the City, Work Outside Work in the City, Live Outside Live and Work in the City Source: Census On the Map, City of Providence 10
MORE HIGH WAGE JOBS FOR COMMUTERS Change 2002-2011 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Small gain in top earners living in the City Big gain in top earners living outside Very small gain in Live- Work top earners More than $3,333 per month $1,251 to $3,333 per month 0 $1,250 per month or less -5,000-10,000 Fewer lower wage jobs Live in the City, Work Outside Work in the City, Live Outside Live and Work in the City Source: Census On the Map, City of Providence 11
COUNTY WAGES ARE LOW AND STAGNANT Overall Wages are Low; Hispanics Earn 57 on the Dollar $4,500 $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 Avg Wages 2009Q4 to 2014Q2 County Wages & Jobs + Non Hispanic wages have grown by only 0.2% vs 0.3% for Hispanics & Latinos + Nationally quarterly earnings also grew by an average of 0.2% from 2009Q4 to 2014Q2 + The County added 9,827 Non Hispanic workers and 4,531 Hispanic workers from 2009Q4 to 2014Q2 + Regional GDP would be $5.2B more if there were no income gap $- Not Hispanic or Latino Poverty Line Hispanic or Latino 12
HISPANICS ARE PAID LESS IN EVERY INDUSTRY SELECT INDUSTRIES Employment by Industry Not Hispanic Hispanic or Latino or Latino Hispanic Share of Emp. Earnings by Industry Not Hispanic Hispanic or Latino or Latino Relative Wage Ratio Mining, etc. 130 9 7% Utilities 1,083 31 3% Manufacturing 20,234 4,681 23% Wholesale Trade 10,908 1,014 9% Administrative, Support, Waste Management and Remediation Services 19,951 6,565 33% Accommodation and Food Services 26,333 4,195 16% Mining, etc. $5,548 $3,088 56 Utilities $7,146 $6,588 92 Manufacturing $3,947 $2,482 63 Wholesale Trade $5,277 $2,970 56 Administrative, Support, Waste Management and Remediation Services $3,102 $1,763 57 Accommodation and Food Services $1,536 $1,428 93 Source: Census Quarterly Workforce Indicators, Providence County, 2014Q2 In bold are industries where Hispanic or Latino workers are more than 14% of the employment. In red are industries where Hispanic or Latino wages are the lowest. In green are industries where Hispanic or Latino wages are the highest. 13
14 OFFICE VACANCY AT LOWEST IN 6 YEARS REAL ESTATE
TRENDS REAL ESTATE + Office Market Nearly 16% vacancy in the Downtown Providence office market by the end of 2014 (from a high of +25% in 2009) Class A vacancy is only 8.6% with rents approaching $31 SF Increasing demand for space in the Capital Center near the train station The Empire District is nearly fully leased + Industrial Market Industrial vacancy in RI was 7.8% in 2014 Nearly 300,000 SF added to the industrial inventory Absorption of 618,000 SF of industrial in 2014 Strong demand from existing manufacturing companies looking to modernize Age of the existing inventory will be a challenge for the future 15
16 TALENT PIPELINE
EDUCATION IS A KEY SECTOR AND TALENT DRIVER The City of Providence contains 1/3 of the education jobs in RI 50,000 But more than 4 in 10 higher education students enrolled in RI are in Providence 100,000 45,000 40,000 90,000 80,000 9,723 35,000 70,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 State - County County - City City 60,000 50,000 40,000 37,583 7,398 MA in MSA RI County City 15,000 30,000 10,000 20,000 35,232 5,000 10,000 0 2013 Educational Services Jobs - 2013 Enrollment 17
ATTRACTING STUDENTS TO PROVIDENCE MSA INSTITUTIONS 6,285 First Time Undergrad Students from RI Rhode Island Massachusetts Connecticut New Jersey Foreign Countries New Hampshire Pennsylvania 2013 Higher Education Enrollment New York California Florida Attraction of First-Time Undergrad Students + Diversity of Colleges, Universities and Technical Schools in the Providence MSA + 16,210 first-time undergrad students enrolled in 2013 compared to 16,086 in 2002 An increase of only 124 students + Primarily a regional market 39% of the students from RI 26% of the students from MA - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 Note: Data for 2013 First-Time Undergrad Students 18
ALIGNMENT OF JOB OPENINGS AND DEGREES OF LESS THAN 4 YEARS The supply of new graduates with less than 4 year degrees is not keeping pace with annual job openings except in liberal arts and health Top Ten 2013 Degrees <4 years Degrees per Annual Job Opening City MSA Education Education Engineering Technologies Computer and Information Homeland Security, Law Mechanic and Repair Business, Management, Transportation and Personal and Culinary Liberal Arts and Sciences, Health Professions and 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Engineering Technologies and Engineering-Related Fields Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services Homeland Security, Law Enforcement, Firefighting and Related Protective Mechanic and Repair Technologies/Technicians Business, Management, Marketing, and Related Support Services Transportation and Materials Moving Personal and Culinary Services Liberal Arts and Sciences, General Studies and Humanities Health Professions and Related Programs Excess Supply - 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 19
ALIGNMENT OF JOB OPENINGS AND DEGREES OF MORE THAN 4 YEARS The supply of new BA + graduates generally meets or exceeds the existing demand, except in education and health Top Ten 2013 Degrees > 4 YR Degrees per Annual Job Opening Engineering Communication, Journalism, and Related Programs Biological and Biomedical Sciences City MSA Engineering Communication, Journalism, and Related Programs Biological and Biomedical Sciences Psychology Psychology Family and Consumer Sciences/Human Sciences Visual and Performing Arts Education Social Sciences Health Professions and Related Programs Business, Management, Marketing, and Related Support Services - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Family and Consumer Sciences/Human Sciences Visual and Performing Arts Education Social Sciences Health Professions and Related Programs Business, Management, Marketing, and Related Support Services Excess Supply - 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 20
Overview of Clusters in Providence County MARKET OPPORTUNITIES 21
Average Annual Wages 2013 CLUSTER GROWTH & AVERAGE WAGES Declining in Providence Growing in Providence $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 IT & Digital Media Design Life Science $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 Educational Services Advanced Manufacturing Health Care Average Wages = $49,979 Tourism, Arts & Recreation $20,000 $10,000 $- -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% Providence Job Growth 2009-2013 Bubble size = 2013 Jobs: 50,000 15,000 5,000 22
INDUSTRY CLUSTERS + Opportunity Sectors employ more than 10% of City residents and represent an opportunity for growth because they are traded industries Information Technology and Media Advanced Manufacturing + Emerging Sub-sectors are smaller, but because of wage levels, economic trends, unique local assets, or other factors show promise for contributing to the City economy Life Science an R&D Design EdTech Food Social Enterprise + Base Sectors employ more than 10% of City residents and are place-based, local industries Healthcare Tourism, Arts, Recreation Educational Services 23
ALL CLUSTERS & JOBS BY TRACT
OPPORTUNITY SECTORS ADVANCED MANUFACTURING Advanced Manufacturing Employment Advanced Manufacturing Overview + 2013 Firms: 585 + 2013 Jobs: 12,283 12.6% of City residents employed + Growth 2009: -7% + Industry Growth Driver (326) Plastics & Rubber Products added 145 jobs + Workers 55 & older: (21%) 2,571 oldest of the clusters + Manufactured products are Providence s top exports + A combination of small manufacturers and designers gives Providence a unique market opportunity
OPPORTUNITY SECTORS ADVANCED MANUFACTURING + Actions Partner to provide attraction and growth services to manufacturers- e.g. Voucher program Develop a referral program for introduce local companies to Polaris for technical support and working capital. Join Commerce RI efforts to develop a center for design and manufacturing Partner with Workforce Solutions and Real Jobs RI to address aging workforce and improving skills, with a focus on Latino workers who are earning lower wages. 26
OPPORTUNITY CLUSTERS INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & MEDIA IT & Digital Media IT & Digital Media Overview + 2013 Firms: 810 + 2013 Jobs: 8,478 + Growth 2009-2013: -6% + Local Actual: - 502 Expected Growth: +24 Local Conditions: -900 + Industry Growth Driver (5415) Computer Systems Design & Services added 414 jobs + Workers 55 & older: (13%) 1,144 + National growth markets such as data processing and hosting services align with City strengths 27
OPPORTUNITY CLUSTERS INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY & MEDIA + Actions The City should work with K-12 schools to ensure that students are equipped for and introduced to IT career pathways. Promote existing and add additional collaboration and co-working spaces (live/work) to support the growth of IT firms. Explore regional attraction opportunities due to crowded market in Boston. Leverage strength of Tech Collective to support IT across industries. 28
EMERGING SUB-SECTORS LIFE SCIENCE AND R&D + This is one of the smallest sectors in terms of firms (93) and employees (<2,000), but it has been growing and exceeded expected growth based on industry trends. + Growth in R&D (64%) and pharmaceutical manufacturing (38%) has offset the job loss in medical equipment. + The ratio of related degrees to retiring workers is low, indicating a risk of not being able to fill jobs. + This is an engaged and connected sector, but companies face challenges with reduced funding, a lack of business acumen, and slow product to market timelines. 29
EMERGING SUB-SECTORS LIFE SCIENCE AND R&D + Actions Create an incubator/ wet lab business plan as part of I-195 or other development. Convene a neuroscience and aging in place working group Partner with an industry organization to promote local assets and strengths, as well as connect companies to resources. 30
EMERGING SUB-SECTORS DESIGN Design Employment Design Overview + 2013 Firms: 719 + 2013 Jobs: 4,531 + Growth 2009-2013: -1% + Industry Growth Driver (541330) Engineering Services added 31 jobs + Workers 55 & older: (15%) 482 + Providence has 3 rd highest concentration of Industrial Designers + Strong growth projections due to expanding need to enhance user experience 31
EMERGING SUB-SECTORS DESIGN + Actions Invest in a grant incubator program for design businesses that would include financial support, mentoring, and business growth support. Market the City as a design hub in larger markets to support Providence businesses in attracting clients and talent. Partner with industry organizations to retain talent through placement, skill development, and start-up support. Utilize local designers to support government projects. 32
EMERGING SUB-SECTORS FOOD PROCESSING, PACKAGING, & SALES + Local businesses bucked national and industry trends to add 785 jobs between 09 13. All industries in production, manufacturing, sales, and wholesale grew during this time. + RI is leading the country in young farmers, new farms, and organic farms. Providence has a unique role to play in acting as a hub for processing, packing, and sales. + In particular, co-packing facilities allow small farms and food-based business to increase sales and there is a discrete market opportunity for an organic co-packing facility to serve the state and the region. 33
EMERGING SUB-SECTORS FOOD PROCESSING, PACKAGING, & SALES + Actions Advocate for state to retain ability to certify organic Conduct a feasibility study for an organic co-packing facility Work with ProvPort to explore refrigeration facility potential Consider creation of a special economic zone to support food processing, packaging and distribution businesses around ProvPort. 34
EMERGING SUB-SECTORS EDUCATION TECHNOLOGY + Intersection of Education, IT, and Manufacturing sectors to integrate technology into classrooms, e.g. online learning, hardware and applications, and administrative tools. + Job, firm, and market estimates are hard, but estimates suggest that it could support up to 1,000 jobs in Providence with a total market size of $43B in 2015, which is expected to grow to $93B by 2020. + Local organizations (Highlander, Providence Equity Partners, FuseRI, EdTech RI), national philanthropic opportunities (Gates product efficacy test-bed), and federal support (Office of Educational Technology) provide the basis for a market opportunity. 35
EMERGING SUB-SECTORS EDUCATION TECHNOLOGY + Actions Leverage increasing reliance on education technology in Providence schools with support for local firms Leverage Gates test-bed to support local firms and attract others Support cluster development Increase Providence Schools contracting threshold from $5,000 to at least $25,000 Offer technical support: free wifi downtown (City campus) Encourage rapid cycle testing through collaborative agreements 36
EMERGING SUB-SECTORS SOCIAL ENTERPRISE + Social enterprises combine the social mission of a non-profit or government program with the market-driven approaches of a business, e.g. Goodwill or Seventh Generation. + Social enterprises have increased dramatically in the past 5 10 years, spurred by new legal structures (LC3, B-Corp), graduate school programs (HBS, Brown), impact investing, and specialized incubators & accelerators (more than 40 in the past 10 years). + Providence s Social Enterprise Greenhouse has been at the forefront of this movement, supporting 160 social enterprises over the past 5 years. 37
EMERGING SUB-SECTORS SOCIAL ENTERPRISE + Actions Include social enterprise as a strength in economic development marketing to attract new businesses and investment. Develop a matching loan program with the Providence Economic Development Program. Develop the cluster by taking advantage of the Commerce RI Industry Cluster Program. 38
BASE CLUSTERS HEALTH CARE AND SOCIAL ASSISTANCE + Significant driver of the Providence economy with 56,000 jobs and 9% growth from 09 13. Largest growth was in Social Assistance (individual and family services, community food and housing, emergency relief services, vocational rehabilitation, child care). + Trends in cost-cutting, preventative care, decentralizing through community-based care, and health technology mean that future growth will look different and health care may be less of a consistent stronghold. + However, those trends also offer new opportunities, e.g. health technology and an increased emphasis on the role of nurse practitioners and physicians assistants (re: new URI/RIC Schools of Nursing). 39
BASE CLUSTERS HEALTH CARE AND SOCIAL ASSISTANCE + Actions Promote training programs for in-demand positions, such as Stepping Up. Engage in ongoing discussions with health care lessees about future real estate needs and partnership models. Include health care assets and strengths in economic development marketing. 40
BASE CLUSTERS TOURISM, ART, & RECREATION Arts & Recreation Employment Arts & Recreation Overview + 2013 Firms: 215 + 2013 Jobs: 3,382 + Growth 2009-2013: 6% + Local Actual: +202 Expected Growth: +12 Local Conditions: +57 + Industry Growth Driver (7139) Fitness & Recreation Industries added 204 jobs + Workers 55 & older: (13%) 452 + Tourism will continue to increase new State marketing campaign will drive new growth
BASE CLUSTERS TOURISM, ART, & RECREATION + Actions Work closely with the State to ensure that Providence s core assets and strengths are represented in new tourism promotion efforts. Review health of existing Providence based tourism attractions Work with colleges and universities and the CVB to cross-promote and attract audiences to further explore the city. 42
BASE CLUSTERS EDUCATIONAL SERVICES Educational Services Educational Services Overview + 2013 Firms: + 2013 Jobs: + Growth 2009-2013: Local Actual: Expected Growth: Local Conditions: + Industry Growth Driver (6111) Private Elementary & Secondary Schools added 414 jobs + Workers 55 & older: (29%) 7,518 + Degrees per year: 1,116
BASE CLUSTERS EDUCATIONAL SERVICES + Actions Identify opportunities for collaboration with colleges and universities, especially around place-making. Host events to introduce city businesses, services, and employers to students and their parents. Work with the Chamber s Innovation Partnership to identify multi-institution partnerships to support industry clusters and ensure that the supply of degrees is aligned with demand. 44
City of Providence OVERARCHING RECOMMENDATIONS 45
FOUNDATIONAL RECOMMENDATIONS + Increase Housing Availability Low vacancy and high rents are making housing, especially downtown, unavailable to young professionals. Take advantage of new state programs Rebuild Rhode Island, TIF to increase availability of housing. + Address Wage Disparities Hispanic workers earn 57 cents per every dollar that non-hispanic workers earn. Regional GDP would be $5.2B more if there were no income disparities. + Better Utilize ProvPort Has generated approx. $164M for the City and its 8 tenants employ more than 5,000 workers. 46
THEMES FROM THE ACTIONS + Partner to Deliver Support Services + Be a Real Jobs Partner: Better Jobs for Residents + Market Strong and Unique Cluster: Providence Brand + Encourage Place-making for Economic Development + Collaboration & Innovation Spaces: Lay the Groundwork + Financing Tools: Enhance 47
LEVERAGE RELATIONSHIP TO BROOKINGS WORK
DISCUSSION PRIORITIZATION OF RECOMMENDATIONS + Conduct Feasibility for Food Cluster Actions diverse potential; critical mass of potential partners + Market Strong and Unique Clusters utilize information from this report to promote Life Sciences Food Cluster Social Enterprise Design and Advanced Manufacturing Ed Tech + Develop Innovation Center for Design and Manufacturing active discussion about creating a center in Providence + Partner with State programs Real Jobs and Commerce RI to benefit residents and businesses + Continue to Improve Predictability and Reliability of City Financing Programs businesses want a clear understanding of what to expect and process 49