Nordic FB Stakeholder Forum - PDF Free Download

Nordic FB Stakeholder Forum Dec 2015 Stockholm Arlanda airport

Agenda 10:00-10:10 Welcome (Lennart Rosengren, Svenska Kraftnät) 10:10-11:10 The Nordic Flow-Based project Status and plans (Trond Jensen, Statnett) Results from the preliminary market simulations (Nils Ræder, Statnett) 11:10-11:30 The Regulatory Process The CACM requirements on selection of Capacity Calculation Methodology (Toril Naustvoll Gange, NVE) 11:30-12:00 Feedback on issues discussed in the Dec 2014 FB Forum (Lasse Konttinen - Fingrid) 12:00 12:30 Experiences from the FB system in CWE The Regulatory side (Alain Marien, CREG) 12:30-13:30 Lunch 13:30-15:00 Experiences from the FB system in CWE (continued) The TSO side (Christophe Mestdag, ELIA) The market participants side (Hélén Robaye, GDF suez) The PXs side (Andrew Claxton and Joel Hoeksema, APX/EPEX) 15:00-15:30 Coffee break 15:30-16:30 Feedback from the Nordic market participants Stakeholder Group feedback and open floor Wrap up

A short reminder What's it all about Obtain more efficient utilization of the power system. More correct power prices and flows. by providing a grid model to the market algorithm The market, not the operators, will prioritize limited exchange capacity between (bidding zone) borders and critical grid components Our "buzz-words": PTDFs and RAMs are the FB parameters providing transmission capacity to the market algorithm and replacing the NTC value Base case is the forecasted state of the power system at each hour. This is used for calculating the FB parameters State of the grid including load and generation (on a nodal base) GSKs are the weights used for aggregating nodes to bidding zones CNEs are Critical Grid Components (to be monitored by the market algorithm) FRMs are uncertainty margins on the CNEs

Where is the project right now A prototype tool for FB capacity calculation has been developed The work on obtaining an industrialized FB tool is starting FB parameters have been calculated for Jan-Apr 2015 120 days in total 17 days of missing grid models FB Market solutions have been calculated by the "PCR Simulation Facility" for those months Market simulations comprise The Nordics, CWE, UK, The Baltics, Poland (New NTC-solutions where also calculated to form a relevant comparison) FB market results have been obtained for 97 days Not sufficient quality of current FB parameters Quality of grid models/non-converging grid models Quality of CNE definition FRM implementation Forecasting Choice of GSK strategy Continuous simulations was started in week 43 Aim is to improve the quality of the calculation process, tools and FB parameters

FB Project Roadmap Timeline - CACM Dec. 2013 Oct. 2014 Aug 2015 Nov 2015 May 2016 March 2017 Sept 2017 Decision process Project Phases Initiation stage Sept 2012 DP0 PFS Welfare estimates Road map FB Develop concept May 2013 DP1 FS-I FB Methodology Prel. Protot. tool Economic indicators FS-II Final protot. tool Market assessment SH communicati on Req. for Ind. tool Prepare for Implementation Oct 2015 DP2 Prepare for implementation Internal and external parallel runs Improving the prototype FB tool Prepare investment in an industrialized FB tool Stakeholder acceptance Investment Sign contracts March 2017 DP3 Implementation Internal and external parallel runs Develop an industrialized FB tool NRA Approvals and TSO agreements Trained operational personnel Final stakeholder acceptance 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

FB parallel runs/market simulations Oct 2015 Sept 2016 March 2017 Sept 2017 Jan 2018 March 2018 Weekly internal parallel runs Check if quality requirements are met Weekly external parallel runs Check if quality requirements are met Daily External parallel runs Prototype in operation in the //run Industrial tool in operation In the //run Stable Prototype Start publish results TSOs to prop. CCM NRAs approve CCM Access to CGM-E D-2 Publish daily results

Project organisation RGN Øivind Rue (SN) Carsten Jensen (EdK) Reima Päivinen (FG) Erik Ek (Svk) MSG (Steering committee) Kristin Munthe (SN) Søren Dupont Kristensen (EdK) Juha Kekkonen (FG) Ulla Sandborgh (Svk) FBG / PMO Convener: Pieter Schavemaker (E-Bridge) Project manager: Trond Jensen (SN) Ulrik Møller (EdK) Lasse Konttinen (FG) Mattias Ehn (Svk) Lennart Rosengren (Svk) Operational Reference Group Convener: Jan Hystad (SN) Support: Zongyu Liu (E-Bridge) Work Group 1 FB Methodology Convener: Trond Jensen (SN) Support: Pieter Schavemaker (E-Bridge) Work Group 2 IT-Development Convener: Mattias Ehn (Svk) Support: Oliver Obert (E-Bridge ) Work Group 3 Welfare Economics Convener: Ulrik Møller (EdK) Support: Zongyu Liu (E-Bridge)

Detailed plan and timeline for the industrialized tool DP2 DP2.1 DP3 Oct 2015 Jan 2016 Sept 2016 March 2017 RFI Specification RFQ Procurement System construction Trial Phase // Run

Contents o o o Revisiting the benefits of a flow based energy market Two cases from the market simulations Impact on price convergence

Transit flows and uncertainty To day (NTC) Line Max flow A -> B 750 MW A 33 % B B -> C A -> C 750 MW 750 MW 67 % Flow Based C Max flow on lines are 1000 MW Line Max flow A B C A -> B 1000 MW 33 % - 33 % 0 B -> C 1000 MW 33 % 67 % 0 A -> C 1000 MW 67 % 33 % 0

Transit flows and uncertainty 2000 MW 1500 MW 1000 750MW 1000 750 MW 667 1000 500 750 A B A B A B 1000 1000 667 1333 C 750 750 500 1000 C 750 750 750 750 1000 C 1000 2000 MW 1500 MW 1500 MW 2000

Internal grid constraints NTC Method

Loop flow in Southern Norway 5 January 2015 NO5 Flow NO2 NO1 The market exchange between NO1 to NO2 creates significant transit flows through NO5 o This adds additional flow on lines NO1-NO5 and NO5-NO2 compared to the planned market exchange The border NO5-NO2 has a thermal capacity of 900 MW o o The capacity must cover both market exchange between NO5-NO2 and transit flow The market receives an NTC limited of 200 MW to avoid overloads on the line, with the line NO1-NO2 being restricted as well A flow based market do not face the same uncertainty, and more of the capacity can be made available to the market Flow Prices Welfare 0 Hour Hour

Better management of internal CNEs DK2 SE4 FB: The West Coast-cut has a limit, but is not actually overloading, or limiting the market on 8 February Hourly welfare NTC: The DK2-SE4 border was limited some hours of 8 February to avoid overloads on the "West Coast Cut" in Sweden FB: No direct limit on the DK2-SE4 border, and larger trade is possible

More prices more capacity Result of market simulations for 12 February 2015 15:00 NTC market outcome 29.6 Flow based market outcome 30.2 29.6 30.4 29.6 29.6 44.9 29.9 27.2 42.1 28.5 28.5 28.5 44.9 +300 MW 28.8 28.9 28.8 +140 MW +250 MW 37.1 +200 MW 44.9 44.9 44.9 44.6 44.6 44.9

Standard deviation of Nordic prices (Jan-Apr 2015) (ordered from high to low values) 25 FB NTC Standard deviation of Nordic prices (Euro) 20 15 10 5 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 hours

Standard deviation of Nordic prices (Jan-Apr 2015) (ordered from high to low values) 22 20 FB NTC Standard deviation of Nordic prices (Euro) 18 16 14 12 10 8 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 hours

Standard deviation of Nordic prices (Jan-Apr 2015) (ordered from high to low values) 0.35 0.3 FB NTC Standard deviation of Nordic prices (Euro) 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 hours

/MWh Price volatility FB impact on standard deviation of prices January to April 2015 0.4 0.2 0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8-1 -1.2 DK1 DK2 FI NO1 NO2 NO3 NO4 NO5 SE1 SE2 SE3 SE4

Overview current Nordic FB Stakeholder involvement Stakeholder Forum Annual, organized together with NordREG Objective: Forum, open for all stakeholders, where information on the Nordic FB project is shared Stakeholder Group meetings 3-monthly Objective: meeting organized with a nominated and small representation of the stakeholders, in order to establish a more intense interaction and information exchange Newsletter Frequency of publication is not fixed yet (event-driven at the moment) Objective: provide a means to update all stakeholders in an easy way

Nordic FB Forum Dec 2014 During the Nordic FB Forum in Dec 2014, we organized breakout sessions, where the project members in multiple small round-table sessions with the stakeholders dived into FB discussions During the break-out sessions, concerns were touched upon and questions were raised The project has taken those questions on board and will answer them as soon as possible; a part of the answers is currently available

Nordic FB Newsletter As not all stakeholders attend the Forum, the project proposes to address the questions raised, and corresponding answers, in the newsletter Indeed, this guarantees that the information is shared with all stakeholders The Nordic FB newsletter will also be used to share The slides of the Stakeholder Fora The slides of the Stakeholder Group meetings The draft minutes of the Stakeholder Group meetings