Cty Research Onlne Cty, Unversty of Lonon Insttutonal Repostory Ctaton: Boyko, V., Dubrovna, N., Zamatn, P., Gerrar, R. J. G., Gurov, A., Sushkov, S., Lazrsky, V., Ivanova, Y. & Zamatn, D. (2015). The Analyss of Inures an Mortalty Rsks Level as a Result of Roa Accent n Regons of the Central an Eastern Europe. Internatonal Journal of Manageral Stues an Research, 3(8), pp. 85-94. Ths s the publshe verson of the paper. Ths verson of the publcaton may ffer from the fnal publshe verson. Permanent repostory lnk: http://openaccess.cty.ac.uk/16960/ Lnk to publshe verson: Copyrght an reuse: Cty Research Onlne ams to make research outputs of Cty, Unversty of Lonon avalable to a wer auence. Copyrght an Moral Rghts reman wth the author(s) an/or copyrght holers. URLs from Cty Research Onlne may be freely strbute an lnke to. Cty Research Onlne: http://openaccess.cty.ac.uk/ publcatons@cty.ac.uk
Internatonal Journal of Manageral Stues an Research (IJMSR) Volume 3, Issue 8, August 2015, PP 85-94 ISSN 2349-0330 (Prnt) & ISSN 2349-0349 (Onlne) www.arcournals.org The Analyss of Inures an Mortalty Rsks Level as a Result of Roa Accent n Regons of the Central an Eastern Europe Valery Boyko a,e, Naya Dubrovna b*, Petro Zamatn a,e, Russell Gerrar c, Alexaner Gurov, Sergey Sushkov a, Vacheslav Lazrsky a, Yula Ivanova a, Dens Zamatn e a GI Zatcev V.T. Insttute of General an Urgent Surgery of NAMS of Ukrane, Balakrev rveway, 1a, Kharkov, 61018, Ukrane b Unversty of Economcs,Dolnozemska cesta 1,Bratslava, 85235,Slovaka c Cass Busness School, Cty Unversty Lonon, 106 Bunhll Row, Lonon EC1Y 8TZ, UK Kharkov Mecal Acaemy of Post Dploma Eucaton, Korchahntsv St.58, Kharkov, 61000, Ukrane e Kharkov Natonal Mecal Unversty, Lenna Av.4, Kharkov, 61022, Ukrane Abstract: In the artcle the analyss of the frequency, traumatsm an mortalty of roa accents has been carre out at the regonal level for the countres of Central an Eastern Europe an has mae t possble to raw conclusons regarng certan spatal features of the strbuton of these ncators an on the nonranom nature of the locaton of ther values on maps of the CEE regons feature n the stuy. On the bass of methos of spatal statstcs an econometrcs we have emonstrate the exstence of a spatal structure n the strbuton of the rsks an consequences of roa accents n the varous regons. Cluster analyss has enable us to stngush unform clusters of regons categorse by the rsks, traumatsm an mortalty rates of roa accents. Base on an analyss of these ncators we have ntrouce the evaluaton of an ntegrate safety level for regons of the countres of Central an Eastern Europe. Ths allows us to estmate the complex nfluence of the rsks an ther consequences roa accents on the level of safety for certan regons or groups of regons. The results of the research whch has been conucte can be use for the mprovement of natonal an regonal programs of roa an transport safety, an for the evelopment of strateges an actons ame at reucng the rsks an consequences of roa accents n certan regons. Keywors: traumatsm, mortalty, roa accents, spatal econometrcs, cluster analyss, safety nex JEL Classfcaton: I18, R10, R41 1. INTRODUCTION Deaths an nures as a result of roa accents are among the pressng questons consere wthn the concept of the European safety [1, 3, 6, 13, 14]. Peroc reports of the Worl Health Organzaton [14] pay partcular attenton to the problem of the rates of mortalty an nury as a result of roa accents n fferent countres of the worl by means of a comparatve analyss of these ncators. Accorng to Eurostat more than 100 people aly, or about 40 thousan nhabtants of the European Unon annually, e as a result of roa accents (RA). More than 40% of all vctms (about 17 thousan people) are peestrans, cyclsts, rvers an passengers of motorcycles an mopes. Accorng to annual surveys n EU countres more than 3 mllon people annually suffer nures of varyng severty as a result of roa accents [14]. Wthn the last ecaes the countres of the EU have manage to acheve a certan amount of progress n ecreasng traumatsm an mortalty on roas; thus n 1972 the quantty of roa accents resultng n eath came to more than 93 thousan, an by 2008 ths quantty ha ecrease to 39 thousan,.e., by more than 50% [14]. In orer to coornate the actons of EU roa safety programs, the specal European Transport Safety Councl (ETSC) was create n 1993. The ETSC untes more than 40 natonal organzatons for roa an transport safety from EU countres, Swtzerlan an Norway; more than 200 nepenent experts from more than 30 European countres partcpate n ETSC work [14]. The tasks of the ETSC are: the evelopment of scentfc an practcal recommenatons towars the formaton of pan-european an natonal roa safety strateges; a complex nvestgaton of ncators of mortalty an nury rates as a result of the use of vehcular transport of all kns; the entfcaton of zones of ncrease rsk of roa accents an the provson of effectve measures for ts ecrease; the settng up of programs to create ARC Page 85
Valery Boyko et al. safe nfrastructure for roas an transport, an to prove for the safety of vehcular traffc; the carryng out of eucatonal programs for roa users, polce structures, paramecal an emergency mecal servces, etc. Over the past few years some large-scale European programs for ecreasng the rsk of mortalty an nury rates on roas were carre out n EU countres. The most well-known programs are the followng: PRAISE Preventng Roa Accents an Inures for the Safety of Employees. The program was begun n 2009 n EU countres n orer to prove an exchange of examples of best practce between all workers ealng wth roa an transport safety, an to create recommenatons for the relevant natonal structures of EU countres. ShLOW - "Show me How Slow". The program was ntate n 2008 an ts tasks nclue tranng stuents for work wth the local populaton on problems of rvers exceeng the spee lmt n bult-up areas. Roas to Respect. Ths program has been uner way for four years an s ame at supportng actons by local authortes to prove a safe roa transport nfrastructure. Safe an Sober an Drnk Drvng Polcy Network. Ths program was ame at the actvaton of socal avertsng at local, regonal an natonal levels aganst excessve alcohol ntake among varous groups of the populaton. The program set tself the task of ecreasng the chance of a roa accent connecte wth alcohol an rug use, an to ncrease the responsblty of rvers an peestrans. SEC Belt. Ths program took root n 2004-2006 an was urge to mprove safety n the countres of the Central, Eastern an Southern Europe. The program was concentrate on sx prncpal areas: the behavor of roa users; vehcle technology an safety; roa nfrastructure; roa technologes; nformaton an atabases on roa accents; an the assessment of natonal polcy on ensurng roa safety. VOICE Vulnerable Roa User Organsatons n Cooperaton across Europe. The proect was mplemente n 2006-2008 an was ame at fulfllng the requrements an maxmsng the safety of ornary roa users. Enforcement Programme. Ths program was realze n 2004-2007 for montorng the system of roa an transport regulaton n EU countres. These programs an proects represent mportant experence for the countres of Eastern Europe an Ukrane, where recors show hgher rates of eath an nury on the roas [1, 2, 6, 13, 14]. Due to the mportance of safety problem on roas n EU countres, especally n the former postsocalst countres such as Polan, Slovaka, Hungary, etc., there are numerous research programs ame at the clarfcaton of the stuaton an the entfcaton of the rsks of roa accents an ther consequences, at natonal, regonal an local levels. Mathematcal an statstcal research nto ncators of nures an mortalty, an an analyss of the spatal strbuton of these ncators usng as examples some countres of Central an Eastern Europe (CEE), was carre out n a number of works [2, 3, 5, 7, 12]. At the same tme, for the evelopment of complex safety strateges on roas at the natonal an local levels t s necessary to efne the rsk factors an to estmate the safety level by means of an ntegrate characterstc. 2. THE PURPOSE OF THE RESEARCH In ths artcle we set the followng obectves: to reveal the maor factors leang to ncrease anger on roas; to characterze, base on a lterature revew, the man types of nures resultng from roa accents an ther nfluence on mortalty ncators; to estmate the level of rsk of roa accents an ther consequences at the regonal level usng sx CEE countres by way of an example; to etermne the safety level at the regonal level usng the same sx CEE countres; to formulate, on the bass of the research an on the experence of the CEE countres, general recommenatons for the reucton of roa accent rsk factors an for ensurng a hgher level of safety on roas. Internatonal Journal of Manageral Stues an Research (IJMSR) Page 86
The Analyss of Inures an Mortalty Rsks Level as a Result of Roa Accent n Regons of the Central an Eastern Europe 3. MATERIALS AND METHODOLOGY Ths research apples methos of comparatve analyss, methos of mathematcal statstcs an spatal econometrcs an methos of multmensonal statstcal analyss (cluster analyss wth the use of the k-means metho an taxonomc methos base on the calculaton of ntegrate ncators). For calculatons we use such packages as Statstca, R an Excel [4, 9, 11]. As the funamental ata set we use the statstcal ata of Eurostat, materals of reports an artcles evote to problems of nures an mortalty as a result of roa accents, an assessment of possble rsks an so forth. 4. MAIN RESULTS As a result of roa accents followe by nures an eath we observe the fferent nature of nury rsks for varous partcpants: rvers, passengers, peestrans, motorcyclsts or cyclsts. As t appears from these varous nvestgatons, the hghest rsk of nures an lethal outcomes of a roa accent s observe for peestrans, cyclsts an motorcyclsts who (n a collson wth a motor vehcle) are less protecte than rvers or passengers. In research by E H.O. [8], ata concernng the nature of anatomc features of the nures suffere by varous partcpants n a roa accent are specfe. The analyss of 1070 cases of roa accent n 2003-2006 was carre out. Table1. Dstrbuton of the number of patents hosptalze as a result of a roa accent, subve accorng to the anatomc character of the nury Boy regon Roa user type p-value for Drver Front seat Rear seat Peestran Cyclst Motorcyclst Fsher s passenger passenger exact test n=395 % n=153 % n=130 % n=229 % n=80 % n=73 % Hea 143 36 45 29 39 30 100 44 32 40 29 40 0.042 Face 111 28 45 29 36 28 46 20 17 21 22 30 0.16 Neck 28 7 5 3 5 4 2 1 2 3 0 0 0.001 Spne 49 12 22 15 16 12 19 8 2 3 5 7 0.002 Thorax 125 32 44 29 36 28 73 32 16 20 15 20 0.15 Abomen an pelvs 24 6 9 6 16 12 26 11 7 9 4 6 0.07 Upper extremty 124 31 48 31 41 31 80 35 36 45 38 52 0.005 Lower extremty 107 27 43 28 40 31 133 58 44 55 33 45 0.001 Source: E H.O., et al. Factors affectng anatomcal regon of nury, severty, an mortalty for roa trauma n a hgh-ncome evelopng country: Lessons for preventon. Inury (2008) As seen from the results of calculatons of Fsher s exact test, n the maorty of cases we are able to reect the hypothess that the anatomcal strbuton of nures s the same for all partcpants n a roa accent. Exceptons to ths are nures to the face an thorax, where Fsher s exact test not prove the essental stncton between relatve ncators. For more etale research see the work of E et al. [8], where the results of nures were groupe for two categores of roa accent partcpants: 1) rvers an passengers of cars; 2) peestrans, cyclsts an motorcyclsts. It was shown that a conserably hgher percentage of nures to the hea an to the upper an lower extremtes s observe among the secon category of roa accent partcpants, whle for the frst category a hgher percentage of nures to the face, neck an spne s observe. As for the frequency of nures to the thorax, abomen an pelvs the fference was statstcally nsgnfcant,.e. approxmately entcal proportons of these nures to vctms are observe from the frst an secon categores. The report of the WHO [14] proves selectve ata on the strbuton of nures suffere by peestrans as a result of a roa accent n fferent countres (tab. 2). As seen from Table 2, there are some, not very sgnfcant, fferences between countres. On the bass of the gven ata t s clear that the two commonest types of nures are nures to the hea an lower extremtes; then follow nures to the thorax, the upper extremtes an the abomen. Internatonal Journal of Manageral Stues an Research (IJMSR) Page 87
Valery Boyko et al. Table2. Comparatve analyss of the strbuton of the kn of nury sustane by peestrans as a result of roa accents worlwe. Boy regon Chna (%) Europe (%) Australa (%) Japan (%) USA (%) Hea 31.5 29.5 39.3 28.6 32.7 Face 5.8 5.3 3.7 2.4 3.7 Neck 0.8 1.8 3.1 4.5 0.0 Thorax 10.9 11.6 10.4 8.5 9.5 Abomen 6.2 3.8 4.9 4.8 7.7 Pelvs 2.6 7.9 4.9 4.5 5.3 Upper extremty 9.4 8.1 8.0 9.0 7.9 Lower extremty 32.8 31.3 25.8 37.2 33.3 Source: WHO (2004) Conserng that, n severe roa accents, vctms have ffcult multple traumas, the chance of survval sgnfcantly epens on the effcency an competence of those renerng emergency frst a. In turn, the coornaton of polce servces, paramecal staff an emergency a work epens on many factors an sgnfcantly ffers n varous countres. In economcally less evelope an poorer countres, more than half of the vctms of severe roa accents e urng the frst hours after the ncent. Thus, accorng to Kumar et al. [10], among the vctms of severe roa accents n Ina, 39.84% e on the spot an 28.51% wthn the frst ays. Only 8.47% of vctms survve for between 4 an 7 ays after a severe roa accent an only 8.82% for between 8 an 14 ays. In the evelope European countres, wth well-organze work of varous securty servces on the roas, much lower ncators of mortalty or nury n roa accents are observe [3, 13, 14]. In [3, 5, 7] the strbutons of roa accent mortalty rates (per 100 thousan populaton) for the NUTS2 regons of the stue CEE countres urng 2001-2010 were analyse, an t was shown that there were sgnfcant fferences n roa accent mortalty rates, both between countres, an n some cases between regons. Comparng roa accent frequences n the specfe countres an n ther regons, t shoul be note that these ncators ffer by factors of up to several ozen. The hghest number of regstere roa accents per 100 km s observe n Germany an the Czech Republc. In aton, there s a clear substantal ncrease of roa accent frequency n the captals or the captal regons, where there s aly heavy traffc of vehcles an peestrans an lmte possbltes of traffc ntersectons. There are also qute hgh rates of roa accent frequency n metropoltan regons an n the regons locate at crossng ponts of ntensve transport communcatons. The lowest values of roa accents mortalty rates are note n Germany an Austra (up to 2% of the number of vctms), an the hghest n Polan (up to 12%). In [5, 7] methos of spatal statstcs an econometrcs were use for the analyss of the spatal strbuton of roa accent frequency ncators an the percentage of partcpants nure an klle n roa accents [4, 9]. For the frequency of roa accents per 100 km we calculate the Moran coeffcents, characterzng the egree of spatal autocorrelaton, for the 84 NUTS2 regons of the sx CEE countres. In 2010 the Moran coeffcent came to 0.35, pontng to moerate spatal correlaton for roa accent frequency. The Moran coeffcent for the ncators of nures n roa accents came to 0.42 n 2010, whch also testfes to the exstence of moerate spatal correlaton of these ncators. A vsual analyss of maps stnctly showe the exstence of clusters forme by groups of NUTS2 regons wth hgher or lower numbers of roa accent nures. In orer to stuy the features of the spatal strbuton of these ncators t s necessary to analyze the spatal moes for regons or ther separate groups. Here we stngush four types of spatal régmes: "HH" regons wth qute hgh rates, surroune by regons wth hgh rates; "HL" - regons wth hgh rates, surroune by regons wth low ncators; "LL" regons wth low ncators, surroune by regons wth qute low ncators; "LH" regons wth low ncators, surroune by regons wth hgh rates [4, 9]. In Fgure 1 the spatal régmes for ncators of roa accent eaths (as a percentage of those nvolve an per 1 mllon nhabtants) are presente for the NUTS2 regons of the CEE countres. For these calculatons we use ata from 2010. Internatonal Journal of Manageral Stues an Research (IJMSR) Page 88
The Analyss of Inures an Mortalty Rsks Level as a Result of Roa Accent n Regons of the Central an Eastern Europe Fg1. The spatal strbuton of those klle n roa accents (as a percentage an per 1 mllon nhabtants) for the NUTS regons of the sx CEE countres Source: ata of Eurostat are processe by N. A. Dubrovna n the program R In fgure 1 we can clearly see the "HH" zones n the terrtores of Polan, Hungary, Slovaka an the Czech Republc where the regons wth qute hgh rates of people klle n roa accents (both as a percentage of those nvolve an also per 1 mllon nhabtants) are surroune by regons wth the same hgh rates. On the contrary, the "LL" zones are locate n the terrtory of western Germany an Austra. The analyss of areas wth the transtonal régmes "HL" an "LH" s also of nterest. For more etale characterstcs of regons an for the rsk analyss of traumatsm an mortalty as a result of roa accents we use four ncators: 1) the number of roa accents per 100 km of roas (VAR1 varable); 2) the mortalty percentage of vctms an people nure n roa accents (VAR2 varable); 3) the number of people klle n roa accents per mllon nhabtants (VAR3 varable); 4) the number of people nure n roa accents per mllon nhabtants (VAR4 varable). Cluster analyss (a metho of k-means) was use to group the regons takng nto account several ncators characterzng the rsk of trauma an mortalty as a result of roa accents. As a result four clusters were stngushe: statstcal characterstcs of the observe clusters are prove n Table 3. Table3. Means an stanar evatons of the VAR1-VAR4 varables for the four clusters Varable Cluster 1 Cluster 2 Cluster 3 Cluster 4 Mean St. ev. Mean St. ev. Mean St. ev. Mean St. ev. VAR1 150.04 83.49 4489.83 1511.32 113.6 72.98 95.25 439.64 VAR2 1.12 0.37 0.3 0.07 1.13 0.28 5.54 2.74 VAR3 49.57 17.09 14.94 4.08 66.15 15 88.71 25.48 VAR4 4350.89 422.69 4881.05 514.97 5808.81 602.45 1713.72 553.31 Source: results of authors research accorng to Eurostat ata Of the 84 NUTS2 regons of the sx CEE countres (Germany, Austra, the Czech Republc, Polan, Hungary an Slovaka), 28 regons came nto the 1st cluster; 3 nto the 2n cluster; 18 n the 3r, an 35 n the 4th. Of the 40 NUTS2 regons of Germany, 28 came nto the 1st cluster; 3 n the 2n an 11 n the 3r. Of the 9 regons of Austra, 7 came nto the 3r cluster an 2 nto the 4th. In the former post-socalst countres (the Czech Republc, Polan, Hungary an Slovaka) all regons appeare n the 4th cluster. On the bass of the results of separatng the regons nto clusters t s possble to conclue that n regons of Germany an Austra the rsks of roa accent nures an mortalty are escrbe by the characterstcs of clusters 1-3, whle for the regons of the four Vsegrá group countres the ncators are locate n the 4th cluster. For the analyss of a generalse measure of rsk we calculate an ntegrate ncator ncorporatng the frequency of accents an the measure of nures an eaths. The ea behn ths s base on methos of taxonomy an t s escrbe n etal n works by the Polsh scentsts Hellwg, Pluta an Młoak, etc. [11]. In our calculatons we use an approach base on the metho of an ntegrate ncator wth an artfcal stanar (etalon) whereby among all the stanarze values of the varables VAR1-VAR4 the best ones are chosen; these are coornates of etalon ponts n multmensonal space, an the Euclean stance of stanarze values from the etalon pont s Internatonal Journal of Manageral Stues an Research (IJMSR) Page 89
Valery Boyko et al. calculate. As fferent ncators can have fferent contrbutons to the formaton of an ntegrate ncator, we note n our calculatons the weghte stance of the stanarze values from the etalon for the evaluaton of the total rsk measure. The algorthm an formulas whch were use for calculatons of an ntegrate evaluaton of rsk measure base on roa accent frequency, nures an mortalty rates are gven below. Calculaton of stanarze values for the VAR1-VAR4 varables: where S x x x x S,,, x, s the stanarze -th value for the -th varable, 1, 4 1, 84, x, s the -th ntal value for the -th varable an x s the average value for the -th varable. The choce of the best values the coornates of the etalon pont among all stanarze ncator ata s: mn e S x x, e where x s the -th coornate for the etalon pont; n ths case the best values are the mnmum values of the stanarze ata. Calculaton of the evatons of the stanarze values of varables from all coornates of the etalon pont: where S x, S S x, x, x s the evaton of the -th stanarze values of the -th varable from the coornate of the etalon pont. Calculaton of the weghte evaton stance of the stanarze values from the coornates of the etalon pont for all values ( 1, 84 ) an all varables ( 1, 4 ): where S 2 S 2 S 2 S 2 w 1/ 2 1 x,1 w2 x,2 w3 x,3 w4 x,4 s the weghte evaton stance of the stanarze values from the etalon pont an s the weghtng coeffcent efnng the mportance of each ncator n the formaton of the ntegrate nex. These coeffcents are etermne by an expert way. We nvte group of experts specalze n the problem of roa accents an safety an ask them to set the weghtng coeffcents efnng the mportance of each ncator n the formaton of the ntegrate Safety Inex. In our research we use w 1 0.15, w 2 0. 3, w 0. 3 3 an w 4 0. 25. Thus, ncators of mortalty have the greatest mportance for rsk assessment, then by egree of mportance follows the ncator of traumatsm (nury rates), an roa accent frequency has least mpact on an ntegrate assessment. It shoul be note that, n vew of the more evelope techncal nfrastructure an the more coornate work of transport polce posts, more roa accents are recore n the evelope countres of Western Europe n comparson wth Eastern Europe, begnnng wth the nsgnfcant accents n whch no trauma or eath were cause an fnshng wth the severe accents. On the bass of values we calculate the quantty Safety Inex as the ntegrate assessment of safety base on measurement of rsk factors. Ths value s etermne by the followng formula: I( SI) e 1 3 w Internatonal Journal of Manageral Stues an Research (IJMSR) Page 90
Frequency 0 5 10 15 20 The Analyss of Inures an Mortalty Rsks Level as a Result of Roa Accent n Regons of the Central an Eastern Europe where I(SI) s an estmate of the safety level (Safety Inex) n the regon from the pont of vew of roa accent rsks, s the average value of the, an s the stanar evaton of the Table 4 gves the results of the strbuton of the calculate values of the safety level n the NUTS2 regons of the sx CEE countres. Table4. Results of the strbuton of the calculate values of the safety level I (SI) Country Mn. value Lower quartle Mean Mean Upper quartle Maxm. value 1 Austra 0.2008 0.2264 0.2991 0.2710 0.3169 0.5855 2 Czech Republc 0.2203 0.2821 0.3266 0.3310 0.3643 0.4300 3 Germany 0.2443 0.3214 0.3606 0.3559 0.4094 0.5047 4 Hungary 0.2657 0.2837 0.3277 0.3145 0.3485 0.4495 5 Polan 0.03488 0.1013 0.1752 0.1577 0.2310 0.3452 6 Slovaka 0.3181 0.3591 0.3854 0.3837 0.4100 0.4561 Source: results of calculatons mae by authors accorng to Eurostat ata The values of the Safety Inex vary n the range from 0 to 1. The closer the nex I(SI) s to 1, the safer s the stuaton n the regon from the pont of vew of roa accents an ther consequences. An, on the other han, values of I (SI) close to 0 characterze the lowest level of safety. As we observe from the ata n Table 4 an Fgure 2, there are sgnfcant fferences n the Safety Inex between the countres an between certan regons from the pont of vew of the generalze rsks of roa accents an ther consequences.. Hstogram of euro.ane$integ_saf_mod 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Integral Safety Inex (ISI) a) The hstogram for the whole sample; b) box-an-whsker plot for the whole sample; c) box-an-whsker plot for each country Fg2. The strbuton of the Safety Inex for the whole sample an by country Source: ata of calculatons are processe by N. A. Dubrovna n the program R It shoul be note that n general the strbuton of the Safety Inex for the whole sample s close to the normal Gaussan strbuton. At the same tme, from the plots presente n Fgure 2(c) we see that the regons of Polan have the lowest values of the Safety Inex from the pont of vew of the generalze rsks of roa accents. The Czech Republc, Hungary an Slovaka have a better stuaton than Polan, as also seen from Table 4 an Fgure 2(c). The hghest safety rates from the pont of vew of roa accent rsks an ther consequences are note n Austra an Germany. In Fgure 3 we present the spatal strbuton of regons, clustere accorng to the ntegrate Safety Inex. As seen from the maps presente n Fgure 3, the lghter areas, corresponng to the fourth cluster of roa accents rsks an to the lowest values of the ntegrate Safety Inex, fall n the regons of Polan an partally n Hungary. The safest regons are locate n the ark colore zone, belongng to the frst an thr clusters accorng to ther rsk characterstcs, an these are the western regons of Germany. It s also seen that n the regons contanng the captals of Austra, the Czech Republc, Internatonal Journal of Manageral Stues an Research (IJMSR) Page 91
Valery Boyko et al. Slovaka an Hungary, we observe hgher rates of the Safety Inex. In Germany (Berln) an n Polan (Mazowecke vovoeshp), on the contrary, safety ncators are rather low. Fg3. The NUTS2 regons of sx CEE countres clustere by rsk of roa accents an the spatal strbuton of the Safety Inex I (SI) Source: ata for calculatons are processe by N. A. Dubrovna n the program R For the analyss of the spatal strbuton of the Safety Inex the Moran coeffcent was calculate. Ths coeffcent came to 0.467, testfyng to the exstence of moerate spatal autocorrelaton of I(SI) values. In Fgure 4 the spatal régmes of the strbuton of I (SI) values are presente. Fg4. Spatal régmes of strbuton of values of ntegrate safety level I (SI) Source: ata from calculatons processe by N. A. Dubrovna n the program R The "LL" zones locate n the conserable terrtory of the Polsh regons are qute clearly vsble; also shown are the southern, mountan regons of Austra where there are also zones wth qute a low level of safety. The "HH" zones presente by the safe regons of western Germany, as well as regons of Slovaka an Hungary wth farly hgh safety levels, are clearly seen. The maps also shows the transtonal régmes "HL" an "LH" wth a sharp change of safety level values between the regon an ts surrounngs. 5. CONCLUSIONS The analyss of the frequency, traumatsm an mortalty of roa accents has been carre out at the regonal level for the countres of Central an Eastern Europe an has mae t possble to raw conclusons regarng certan spatal features of the strbuton of these ncators an on the nonranom nature of the locaton of ther values on maps of the CEE regons feature n the stuy. On the bass of methos of spatal statstcs an econometrcs we have emonstrate the exstence of a spatal structure n the strbuton of the rsks an consequences of roa accents n the varous regons. Cluster analyss has enable us to stngush unform clusters of regons categorse by the rsks, traumatsm an mortalty rates of roa accents. Base on an analyss of these ncators we have ntrouce the evaluaton of an ntegrate safety level for regons of the countres of Central an Eastern Europe. Ths allows us to estmate the complex nfluence of the rsks an ther consequences roa accents on the level of safety for certan regons or groups of regons. Internatonal Journal of Manageral Stues an Research (IJMSR) Page 92
The Analyss of Inures an Mortalty Rsks Level as a Result of Roa Accent n Regons of the Central an Eastern Europe The results of the research whch has been conucte can be use for the mprovement of natonal an regonal programs of roa an transport safety, an for the evelopment of strateges an actons ame at reucng the rsks an consequences of roa accents n certan regons. It s necessary to establsh n more etal the reasons unerlyng the emergence of these factors at the local, regonal or natonal levels an, by takng these reasons nto account, to evelop a complex of target actons; accorng to the recommenatons of the Program of the Worl Health Organzaton presente n 2004 an evote to the problem of ensurng roa an transport safety, such actons have to be base on nteractons between the followng fve components: 1) tasks for the government; 2) tasks for the health system; 3) tasks for vehcle manufacturers; 4) tasks for representatves of funs an chartable organzatons; 5) tasks for representatves of the local populaton, local socal groups an publc organzatons [14]. The coornate work of these maor components wll accor hgher status, n the eyes of the state an of the publc, to the ensung roa an transport safety programs an wll enhance ther socal an economc effcency. An example of ths s the experence of Germany an Austra, where lower roa mortalty an a hgher level of roa an transport safety have been brought about by: the creaton of more flexble mechansms for cooperaton between central government an local government; the coornate work of traffc patrols, rescue workers an emergency mecal servces; the nvolvement of volunteers n carryng out eucatonal programs ame at reucng the rsk of roa accents assocate wth a human factor; an the applcaton of a varety of channels of fnancng. REFERENCES [1] Аналіз небезпек на транспорті та система реагування на них//національна доповідь про стан техногенної та природної безпеки в Україні у 2009 р. С.64-83. [2] Бойко В.В., Замятин П.Н., Яковцов И.З., Крутько Е.Н., Лыхман В.Н., Замятин Д.П. Анализ тяжелых механических повреждений у пострадавших с травматической болезнью //Експериментальна і клінічна медицина. 2011. 4(53). С.143-146. [3] Гуров А.М., Замятин П.Н., Филип С., Дубровина Н.А., Замятин Д.П. Исследование показателей смертности в результате ДТП в странах ЦВЕ//Collectons of Materals of the Internatonal Scentfc Conference Economcs, Healthcare an Eucaton n the Moern Worl. October, 3-8, 2013. Opole. Polan. pp. 32-34. [4] Дубровина Н.А. Применение методов пространственной эконометрики в региональных исследованиях//материалы Международной научно-практической конференции 27-28 мая 2010 г. Бизнес Информ. Харьков. ИД «ИНЖЭК», 5(2), 2010. С.12-16. [5] Лабаш П., Бойко В.В., Гуров А.М., Замятин П.Н., Филип С., Дубровина Н.А., Несторенко Т.П., Замятин Д.П. Математико-статистический анализ региональных показателей смертности в результате ДТП на примере ряда стран ЦВЕ // Moern problems an prospects of Clncal Mecne, Healthcare an Pharmacy Development. Opole: The Acaemy of Management an Amnstraton n Opole, 2014. pp. 98-113. [6] Сердюк А.М., Поліщук М.Є. Медичні та соціально-економічні проблеми травматизму//профілактична медицина. Журн. НАМН України, 2011. т.17, 3. С.264-269. [7] Boyko V., Zamatn P., Labas P., Flp S., Dubrovna N., Zamatn P. Roa safety ssues: RTA eath an nury rates n the countres of Central an Eastern Europe//Publc Amnstraton an Regonal Development. School of Economcs an Management of Publc Amnstraton. No.2 December, 2013. Vol.IX, pp.133-142. [8] E H.O., Barss P., Aam S.H., Torab F.C., Lunso K., Grvna M. an Abu-Zan F.M. Factors affectng anatomcal regon of nury, severty, an mortalty for roa trauma n a hgh-ncome evelopng country: lessons for preventon. Inury 40, pp 703-07 (2009). [9] Kopczewska K. Ekonometra statystyka przestrzenna. Wyane I, Warszawa, 2006. 162 s. [10] Kumar A., Lalwan S., Agrawal D., Raut R. an Dogra T.D. Fatal roa traffc accents an ther relatonshp wth hea nures: An epemologcal survey of fve years//inan Journal of Neurotrauma (IJNT), 2008. Vol. 5, No. 2, pp. 63-67. [11] Młoak A. Analza taksonomczna w statystyce regonalne. Warszawa, Dfn, 2006. 261 s. [12] Sousek R., Dvorak Z. Rsk entfcaton n crtcal transport nfrastructure n case of Central Europe wth focus on transport of angerous shpments //WMSCI 2009: The 13 th worl mult conference on systemcs, cybernetcs an nformatcs, Orlano, Flora, 2009. P. 374-377. Internatonal Journal of Manageral Stues an Research (IJMSR) Page 93
Valery Boyko et al. [13] Whtelegg J., Haq G. Vson Zero: Aoptng a Target of Zero for Roa Traffc Fataltes an Serous Inury. Stockholm Envronment Insttute. Sween, 2006. 115 p. [14] Worl Health Organsaton. Worl report on roa traffc nury preventon, Geneva, 2004. - 66 p. AUTHORS BIOGRAPHY Professor, Doctor of Mecal Scence Valery Boyko s Drector of GI Zatcev V.T. Insttute of General an Urgent Surgery of NAMS of Ukrane. Hs research area s concerne wth general an urgent surgery, surgcal treatment of multple trauma. He s author of more than 500 publcatons an one of the leang surgeon n Ukrane. Dr. Naya Dubrovna s Assocate Professor from Fnance Department of Kharkov Insttute of Trae an Economy (Ukrane) an Researcher of Fnance Department of Unversty of Economcs n Bratslava (Slovaka). Her prmary research topcs are: econometrcs, spatal econometrcs an statstcs, publc amnstraton an fnance. Professor, Doctor of Mecal Scence Petro Zamatn s hea of trauma shock epartment of GI Zatcev V.T. Insttute of General an Urgent Surgery of NAMS of Ukrane. Hs research area s concerne wth general an urgent surgery, surgcal treatment of multple trauma, health care management. Dr. Russell Gerrar s Assocate Professor n Faculty of Actuaral Scence an Insurance n Cass Busness School, Cty Unversty Lonon (UK). Hs man prmary topcs are: actuaral statstcs, econometrcal an statstcal methos, stochastc processes. Professor, Doctor of Mecal Scence Alexaner Gurov s hea of Forensc Mecne Department of Kharkov Mecal Acaemy of Post Dploma Eucaton (Ukrane). Hs research s evote the stuy of analyss of mortalty rsks n the transport accents. Professor, Doctor of Mecal Scence Sergey Sushkov works n GI Zatcev V.T. Insttute of General an Urgent Surgery of NAMS of Ukrane. Hs research area s concerne wth general surgery treatment. Dr. Vacheslav Lazrsky works n GI Zatcev V.T. Insttute of General an Urgent Surgery of NAMS of Ukrane. Hs research area s concerne wth general surgery treatment. Doctor of Mecal Scence Yula Ivanova works n GI Zatcev V.T. Insttute of General an Urgent Surgery of NAMS of Ukrane. She has expertse n general surgery treatment. Dens Zamatn s PhD stuent of Kharkov Natonal Mecal Unversty. Hs research area s concerne wth carovascular aspects of surgery treatment for multple trauma cases. Internatonal Journal of Manageral Stues an Research (IJMSR) Page 94