Jane's Defence Weekly [Content preview Subscribe to IHS Jane s Defence Weekly for full article] Briefing - Fettered flight: Indian Air Force procurement and capabilities The Indian Air Force's capabilities are continuing to deteriorate, despite the arrival of a government that seems ready to make big acquisition decisions, report James Hardy and Rahul Bedi In 2006 IHS Jane's World Air Forces ( JWAF ) described the Indian Air Force (IAF) as "a competent, technology-intensive service" that had nonetheless "experienced a sharp shortfall in the number of pilots and an uncomfortably high accident rate, notably in the MiG-21 fleet". Its entire fleet of aircraft, "with the exception of Sukhoi Su-30s, is ageing, and moves are under way to refurbish, upgrade, and replace both combat and transport aircraft. The number of combat squadrons has fallen to 30 from 40 and is unlikely to again reach the authorised establishment of 45", it added. JWAF also noted that "the IAF is in a state of flux, and force structure decision-making is complicated by politics, sensitivity to past corruption in procurement projects, conflicting budget priorities, continuing problems with indigenous systems [and] bureaucratic delays in tendering processes". It would be hard to argue that much has changed. An internal IAF assessment conducted in 2014 and passed to IHS Jane's revealed that the operational availability of the force's combat, transport, and helicopter fleets had averaged about 60% over the preceding three years. Of these fleets, the fighters had the lowest overall operational availability rate of 55%. The helicopter fleet achieved 62%, while trainer and transport aircraft had a rate of 65%. The IAF assessment largely blamed its assets' low operational availability on Ministry of Defence (MoD) delays and poor maintenance and platform support by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). India's Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence certainly believes the MoD has failed to provide the kind of air force that India needs. In a series of reports published at the end of December, the committee noted "consistent deficit budgeting and its negative effect on the preparedness of the air force [and] adhocism in planning and budgeting". The committee's ire was particularly focused on the MoD's inadequate management of the IAF's combat fleets. Noting that combat squadron strength is now "just 34 against a sanctioned number of 42 [the target of 45 has been dropped since 2006]", the committee said the present situation was down to a "lack of futuristic planning". Article 1 Page 1 of 14
The Rafale, seen here in Indian colours, is the subject of ongoing negotiations between Dassault and the Indian MoD. (PA) 1454940 MMRCA In early 2015 Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar suggested that the MoD could opt to buy more Su-30s rather than continue contract talks with Dassault due to the French company's refusal to take responsibility for the 108 Rafales that are to be licence-built by HAL in Bangalore. This view is shared by some senior MoD officials, one of whom told IHS Jane's that India would be forced into taking a final call on acquiring the Rafale before Modi's trip to France and Germany, which is scheduled around April. "The MoD wants Dassault to be fully compliant with the 2007 tender in support of the IAF's requirement for the MMRCA," said a senior IAF officer. A substantial portion of this, he declared, involves Dassault taking responsibility for the 108 HAL-produced Rafales. "But Dassault's reluctance to take on responsibility for this part of the contract, which includes quality assurance, delivery schedules and liquidity damages, could well result in the tender being scrapped," he added. Industry sources said Dassault's objections to these conditions stem from it having neither supervisory nor executive authority over HAL, which, as the parliamentary and IAF reports noted, has repeatedly run into delays and cost overruns on many of its projects. Despite these issues, the IAF remains of the view that the Rafale procurement must go ahead. Article 1 Page 2 of 14
Air Vice Marshal Manmohan Bahadur (rtd) of the Centre for Air Power Studies in New Delhi said he was "guardedly optimistic" over the Rafale procurement and disagreed with Defence Minister Parrikar's recent suggestion that additional Su-30MKIs could be a cheaper substitute for the Rafale. The Su-30MKI is set to be India's frontline fighter for some years to come, especially if delays to the MMRCA programme continue. (IHS/Patrick Allen) 1509879 "Successive air chiefs have urged the government to take a decision on procuring the Rafale: a selection which has been done after a professional assessment that has generated no controversy," he told IHS Jane's. FGFA LCA and MMRCA are not the only irons in the IAF's fire. On 21 January Russia and India agreed to fast-track the Sukhoi/HAL Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) programme. Article 1 Page 3 of 14
The USD11 billion programme is based on the Russian Air Force's Sukhoi T-50 PAK-FA platform, with Delhi paying USD295 million towards the preliminary FGFA design. Under existing plans HAL will build about 130-145 of the type for an estimated USD30 billion from 2020-22. IAF officials have said FGFA numbers are likely to rise significantly given China's development of the J-20 and J-31 fifth-generation fighters (the latter of which may enter Pakistani service). Transport aircraft While the IAF's track record with combat aircraft procurement is patchy at best, it has had much greater success with transport platforms. This is largely due to its selection of US platforms via the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) route and a better strategic relationship between Washington and Delhi. There was much room for improvement. In the mid-2000s the Pentagon's Office of Net Assessment released a report that described a "persistent and, in some cases, deep-seated distrust" in the two countries' military relationship that was a hangover from the Cold War and India's close relationship with the Soviet bloc. The Pentagon looked to overcome this distrust with a charm offensive, which was on view at the 2003 Aero India airshow - two years after US sanctions imposed for India's 1998 nuclear tests were lifted - and brought discussions over the possible sale of Lockheed Martin P-3C Orion maritime patrol and C-130 transport aircraft. The C-130 sale - initially for six aircraft but since doubled - was agreed in 2008. The potential P-3C sale was superseded by the export of the Boeing P-8I Neptune to India: the type's first export and a major capability enhancement for the Indian Navy. As well as C-130s (the first six of which cost USD962 million), the IAF has also acquired 10 Boeing C-17 Globemaster III heavylift transport aircraft (USD4.1 billion) from the US. Meanwhile, negotiations are currently under way for 15 CH-47F Chinook heavylift transport helicopters (along with 22 AH-64E Apache attack helicopters) that India downselected in October 2012. Article 1 Page 4 of 14
The IAF has ordered six more C-130Js to supplement the five now in service. (Indian Air Force) 1486957 While the C-130 and C-17 fleets currently fulfil niche capabilities - the first five C-130s are used by special forces (one was lost in a crash in 2014) - India is also embarking on two ambitious programmes to replace its 105 upgraded Antonov An-32 and 56 obsolete Avro 748M medium transports. The former is intended to be replaced by the Indo-Russian Multirole Transport Aircraft, while the programme for the Avro replacement - the Military Transport Aircraft - is up in the air following two recent decisions to defer approval after only one bidder emerged. That bid was a joint venture between Airbus Defence and Space and Tata Advanced Systems Limited (TASL), designated the Indian Production Agency (IPA), to provide the twin-turboprop C295. Under India's Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP), sole-bidder programmes require special approval by a cabinet committee. If the bid is approved, 16 C295s will be acquired off the shelf and the remaining 40 built in India within eight years of the contract being signed. Article 1 Page 5 of 14
Training The ongoing debate surrounding local vs imported industrial capabilities also affects IAF training procurement. Although local production by HAL of the BAE Systems Hawk Mk 132 advanced jet trainer has been viewed as a success, continuing delays by HAL in designing and building the Sitara intermediate jet trainer (IJT) have affected training, forcing the IAF to divert its ageing Hindustan Jet Trainer 16 (HJT-16) Kiran aircraft into performing this role. The Kirans are scheduled to retire in 2018 as there is no support for their Bristol Siddeley Orpheus engines. The IAF is fighting to expand its fleet of Pilatus PC-7 basic trainers (pictured) over objections from the MoD, which wants to acquire a locally built platform. (IHS/Patrick Allen) 1510533 "This will force the IAF into amending its training regimen by sidestepping the IJT," Bhatia said. Flying time for pilots will therefore increase on newly inducted Swiss Pilatus PC-7 Mk II basic turbo trainers and the Hawks, he declared. Bhatia also believes the IAF should scrap the Hindustan Turbo Trainer 40 (HTT-40), which HAL has been designing for over five years and which is scheduled to make its maiden test flight over the next 12 months. Rotary-wing capabilities Although India appears to be making progress on attack and heavylift helicopters via the US FMS route, the same cannot be said for the IAF's Reconnaissance and Surveillance Helicopter (RSH) programme. Originally put out for tender in 2004, the RSH acquisition was first cancelled in 2007 following allegations of malpractice in the selection procedure. In August 2014 the MoD again terminated plans to import 197 Article 1 Page 6 of 14
helicopters, even though trials between the Eurocopter AS550 Fennec and Kamov Ka-226 'Sergei' had been completed. Under the new RSH plans announced in August, about 400 helicopters will be licence-built under the Defence Procurement Procedure's 'Buy and Make (Indian)' category, according to officials. However, the MoD has had to repeatedly extend the deadline for local manufacturers to respond to its request for information (RfI) for the RSH programme, from 11 November to 23 December 2014 and then to 17 February 2015. While senior MoD officials said that locally constructing the RSHs would generate INR400 billion worth of business for India's developing military-industrial sector and was in line with Modi's emphasis on reducing dependence on defence imports, service officers said cancelling the RSH purchase would force the IAF and Army Aviation Corps (AAC) to fly obsolete platforms such as the licence-built Chetak (Aerospatiale Alouette III) and Cheetah (Aerospatiale SA315B Lama) helicopters, which entered service in the 1960s and 1970s. Attempts to replace the Cheetah have been repeatedly delayed. (IHS/Patrick Allen) 1311785 Air defence Like other capability areas, air defence has suffered from cancelled indigenous programmes and delayed joint ventures or overseas acquisitions. One such programme is the long-pending USD5 billion programme to co-develop the Maitri short-range surface-to-air missile (SR-SAM) system with MBDA. Instead of waiting Article 1 Page 7 of 14
for Maitri, under negotiation since 2007, the IAF and Indian Army have decided on the locally developed medium-range Akash system, official sources told IHS Jane's in September 2014. The decision bypassed concerns over delays in the Maitri programme expressed in July 2014 by French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius to then Indian defence minister Arun Jaitley. A memorandum of understanding, signed in 2013 after six years of talks between MBDA and India's Defence Research and Development Organisation, apportioned the workshare between the two sides but further progress was dependent on MoD approval. The IAF has placed orders for eight Akash squadrons - with plans for more than double this number - while the Indian Army plans on initially inducting four regiments. Indian air capabilities. (IHS) 1569492 Article 1 Page 8 of 14
FORECAST The future capabilities of the IAF depend entirely on the Modi government's approach to procurement. The early signs are that Modi's MoD will adopt a hybrid policy, encouraging local development but with foreign help. A Western defence industry source shared this view, telling IHS Jane's that 'Make in India' was going to be "the big story for Aero India 2015". "We've obviously got products we want to sell, but the main focus is on partnership" with Indian firms, said the source. Since taking power in May 2014, Modi's government has made two decisions that explicitly support such an approach. The first, to raise the cap on foreign direct investment to 49%, intends to make India a more attractive market for foreign primes; the second, the new government's preference for a "pragmatic" approach - to use Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's words - removes the spectre of blacklisting foreign firms for breaking complex procurement rules. This "pragmatic" approach includes a proposal to streamline the Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP) and relax rules on the use of agents or middlemen. Many observers note that local help is vital to negotiating India's labyrinthine procurement procedures; any move to regulate this will certainly increase industry confidence and could streamline lengthy acquisition processes. Copyright IHS Global Limited, 2015 For the full version and more content: IHS Jane's Defence Industry and Markets Intelligence Centre This analysis is taken from IHS Jane s Defence Industry & Markets Intelligence Centre, which provides world-leading analysis of commercial, industrial and technological defence developments, budget and programme forecasts, and insight into new and emerging defence markets around the world. IHS defence industry and markets news and analysis is also available within IHS Jane s Defence Weekly. To learn more and to subscribe to IHS Jane s Defence Weekly online, offline or print visit http://magazines.ihs.com/. For advertising solutions contact the IHS Jane s Advertising team Article 1 Page 9 of 14