Challenges and opportunities Trends to address New concepts for: Offensive sea control Sea based AAW Weapons development Increasing offensive sea control capacity Addressing defensive and constabulary missions Capability and program implications Text
In 2001, the Navy planned a new surface warfare approach New family of CG(X), DD(X), LCS Employing Network centric warfare All three ships now cancelled/truncated Navy has an opportunity to implement new surface warfare concept Final specifications for Flight III DDG 51 Concept and design of follow on SSC and modifications to LCS Phased modernization of remaining CGs New weapons and sensors This study proposes a plan focused on: Large and small surface combatants Results possible by mid 2020s
China the pacing challenge but not the only, or most likely, A2/AD threat the surface forces will face
Iran shows less capable militaries can combine geography and fire and forget weapons in effective A2/AD network
40 Number of Active Conflicts 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 100% 80% 9% 13% Types of Active Conflicts 20% 28% 38% 60% 40% 20% 0% 53% 57% 67% 67% 55% 16% 23% 23% 6% 13% 5% 7% 1946 1961 1976 1991 2006 Extrasystemic Conflict Interstate Conflict Internal Conflict Internationalized internal conflict Proxy, paramilitary, and indirect conflicts on the rise
900,000 800,000 Army Navy Air Force Defense Wide Historical Budget Authorities OIF/OEF DRAWDOWN Millions of FY2015 $ 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 KOREA DRAWDOWN VIETNAM DRAWDOWN Air Force Navy COLD WAR DRAWDOWN DoD wide 100,000 0 Army Percent of Budget by Category 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Historical Budget Authorities as Percent of Total DoN Budget Authority Other Spending R&D and Procurement Operations and Maintenance MILPERS DoN Share of Healthcare Budgets unlikely to rise; pressure continues on R&D and procurement
Cold War Outer Air Battle Enabled carriers to approach within striking distance of Russia Surface fleet s contribution was Up, Out and Down Ships & aircraft able to engage Soviet bombers outside anti ship missile range
Surface-Launched Missile Threat to U.S. Surface Combatants Range: 50 nm 100 nm 150 nm 200 nm 250 nm 300 nm SS-N-19 Variation in Y-values is for illustration only, not intended to reflect relative altitude Enemy Combatant Nasr Kosar Karus C-801 C-701 C-704 Range: Tondar BrahMos 50 nm 100 nm 150 nm 200 nm 250 nm 300 nm Enemy Combatant U.S. Surface Combatant Naval Strike Missile range from IHS Jane s Navy International. All other ranges from IHS Jane s Defence: Weapons database. * RGM-84L, a Harpoon Block II variant, is the only variant in service with the U.S. Navy. ** Extended-range Harpoon Block I variant previously in U.S. and foreign service.
Surface combatants will conduct bulk of sea control Subs, carriers, amphibious ships conducting power projection in future scenarios Defeat enemy weapon launchers, not just enemy weapons BAMS SM-6 Future Anti-Ship Missile Secure Data Link DDG Future Anti-Submarine Weapon TAGOS
Mission Missile Number 100 Long range Defensive AAW SM 6 16 90 Mid range Defensive AAW SM 2 32 80 ESSM 32 (8 cells) 70 BMD SM 3 6 Strike Tomahawk 24 Successful Engagements 60 50 40 SUW Harpoon 8 non VLS ASW VLA 10 S L S SS L S 30 20 10 0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 Defending Missile Single Shot Pk
Shift to a single, dense defensive AAW layer Smaller interceptors; just as capable and more numerous as longer range Acknowledges challenges against OTH targets Enables integration of lasers, railgun and electronic warfare Long range interceptors used for offensive AAW ASBM EMRG 30 nm Defensive AAW ASCM Salvo 5 nm Ship Self-Defense Laser RAM ESSM CIWS LCS DDG JHSV LCS
Laser on some Flight III DDG 51 300 500 kw able to conduct air defense Needed power and cooling (~1500kW) too high for other ships Smaller laser (~60 100 kw) could be used for counter ISR, counter UAV EM railgun on JHSV, DDG 1000 32 MJ able to conduct air defense, strike Power requirement of 17MW 64 MJ EMRG on DDG 1000 for strike Shift defensive AAW to ~30 nm range Smaller ESSM like interceptor EW systems Laser Electromagnetic railgun
Mission Missile (replacement) Number Offensive AAW SM 6 32 Defensive AAW ESSM Blk II 96 (24 cells) BMD SM 3 6 Strike Tomahawk (NGLAW) 24 SUW Harpoon (LRASM) 8 non VLS ASW VLA (None) 10 More capacity needed from each VLS cell Emphasize: relevant capability multi mission applicability smaller size; > 1 per cell Planned solutions are large, singlemission weapons No ASW weapon able to outrange sub launched anti ship missiles Getting the most out of the ship s main battery the VLS magazine
Mission Current Missile Number Future Missile Number Offensive AAW SM 6 16 SM 6 42 Defensive AAW SM 2 32 ESSMBlk II 96 (24 cells) ESSM 32 (8 cells) BMD SM 3 6 SM 3 4 Strike Tomahawk 24 LRASM 18 SUW Harpoon 8 non VLS LRASM / SM 18/42 ASW VLA 10 New ASW Missile 8 Multi mission LRASM Long range ASROC SM 6 for offense ESSM for defense
25 20 Number of CGs Ship Count 15 10 Phased Mod CGs CG 47 Replacement 5 Operating CG 52 62 Operating CG 63 73 0 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33 FY34 FY35 FY36 FY37 FY38 FY39 FY40 FY41 FY42 FY43 Fiscal Year Year Cruiser phased modernization needed for offensive sea control, air defense commander capacity
Misawa Air Base Sasebo Naval Base Iwakuni Naval Air Station PAC-3 Batteries THAAD Batteries Tokyo Yokosuka Naval Base Shore based BMD systems should replace BMD ships in defense of fixed Cruiser phased modernization needed for offensive sea control, air defense locations overseas commander
150 to 300 nm range engagement Future Anti Ship Missile Mutually-Supporting Air Defenses Secure Data Link Future Anti Submarine Weapon Passive Listening Variable Depth Sonar Passive Towed Array Enabling small surface combatants able to contribute to offensive sea control with CGs and DDGs or on their own
160 Follow on SSC 140 SSC reqmt LCS MCM Number of Surface Combatants 120 100 80 60 40 Large Surface Combatant reqmt BMD stations PC FFG DDG 1000 Future Large Surface Combatant DDG 51 Flight III DDG 51 Flight IIA DDG 51 Flight II DDG 51 Flight I 20 CG 0 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 FY32 FY33 FY34 FY35 FY36 FY37 FY38 FY39 FY40 FY41 FY42 FY43 FY44 CSG escorts Growing SSC shortfall requires new approaches to escort, training and security missions so CGs and DDGs can focus on offense
LCS Procurement FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 1 1 0 0 2 2 2 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 Follow on SSC Procurement FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Modify LCS to be the follow on SSC Only one variant Equip for defensive AAW, ASW and SUW missions VLS (24 cell) 3D radar (not SPY) ASW mission package Same gun Upgrade selected LCS with VLS
8 LCS 4 LCS Evolve to dedicated LCS crews Forward base 16 LCS Upgrade selected LCS with VLS Consider buying more JHSV 8LCS 8LCS 4 LCS 117 Days 117 Days 117 Days 117 Days 117 Days 117 Days 117 Days 117 Days LCS 1 Deployed Homeport LCS 3 Homeport Deployed Crew 101 Crew 102 LCS 1 Off Hull Off Hull LCS 3 LCS 1 Off Hull LCS 3 LCS 1 Off Hull LCS 3 LCS 1 Off Hull LCS 3 LCS 1 Off Hull LCS 3 Deployed Homeport LCS forward 60 120 days 30 days LCS CONUS 120 210 days 180 days Crew 103 LCS 3 LCS 1 Off Hull LCS 3 LCS 1 Off Hull LCS 3 LCS 1 Shift LCS to dedicated crews; base some in today s overseas SSC ports
Separate mission packages from LCS program Whole MCM mission package Whole SUW mission package Parts of ASW mission package Add new mission packages Electronic warfare Humanitarian assistance Maritime security Consider expanding noncombatant fleet Less expensive option for some operations in low threat environments
Challenges demand a new approach to surface warfare Networked family of CG(X), DD(X), LCS no longer viable Access threats increasing defensive demands on all surface combatants Instability will increase demands for training, cooperation and security Budgets will preclude new designed until 2030s Navy has opportunity to implement a new surface fleet concept Flight III DDG 51 Follow on SSC and modifications to LCS Phased modernization of CGs New weapons and sensors (LRASM, AMDR variants, ESSM Block II, SEWIP) Potential of the National Fleet Surface fleet must refocus on offensive sea control CGs and DDGs equipped and available to defeat enemy platforms Restore ability of SSCs to do escort, training and constabulary missions Restoring the surface fleet s ability to gain sea control, protect noncombatant ships, train allies and partners, and secure sea lanes