January 218 January Summary According to recent reports, economic conditions in improved somewhat. Although the unemployment rate rose, payroll employment increased and housing marking indicators were mostly upbeat. Labor Markets: Payroll employment in grew.2 percent in November as firms added,4 net new jobs. The most jobs were added in professional and business services (3,3 jobs), followed by government, financial services, and trade transportation, and utilities, which each added 1,6 jobs in November. On the downside, sizeable job losses were reported in mining, logging, and construction (1,9 jobs) and leisure and hospitality (1,4 jobs). On a year-over-year basis, total employment rose 2.2 percent in as jobs were added to every industry except manufacturing and information. The largest employment gain since last November came from professional and business services firms, which added 2, jobs (4.6 percent). The logging, mining, and construction industry also grew 4.6 percent since last November by adding 7, jobs. A Closer Look at Business Employment Dynamics The BLS Business Employment Dynamics data includes information on job gains and job losses based on a quarterly census of administrative records. Job gains are attributed to establishments that had employment for the first time in the given quarter (openings) and those that had net increases in employment over the period (expansions). Similarly, job losses are attributed to establishments that reported zero employment in the quarter but had previously reported positive employment (closings) and those that had a net decrease in employment over the period (contractions). The number of establishments in reporting job losses in 217 Q1 was 3,687, including 6,98 closings. In the same period 37,776 establishments reported job gains, including 7,84 openings. Household Conditions: The unemployment rate in ticked up.1 percentage point in November to 3.9 percent. The number of unemployed increased 3. percent in the month while the labor force declined.2 percent; the labor force participation rate dipped.2 percentage point to 68.2 percent. In the third quarter of 217, the share of mortgages in with payments 9 or more days overdue was unchanged at 1.6 percent. Delinquency rates for fixed and adjustable rate conventional loans rose slightly in the third quarter as well, to 1.3 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively. Also in the third quarter, real personal income rose.3 percent and increased 1.1 percent since the third quarter of 216. Housing Markets: issued 1,114 new residential permits in November, a 21.4 percent increase from the prior month and an 11. percent increase from November 216. Permitting activity also picked up in Baltimore and Hagerstown in the month and on a year-overyear basis. Housing starts in totaled 16, in November, a.8 percent increase from the prior month and a 2.1 percent increase compared to November 216. According to CoreLogic Information Solutions, home values in depreciated.3 percent in October but appreciated 3.3 percent over the last twelve months. Home prices also declined in each of the state s MSAs in October; however, on a year-over-year basis, home values appreciated in every MSA except Cumberland. 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Private Sector Job Gains and Losses in Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands of Expansion Opening Contraction Closing Q2:216 Q3:216 Q4:216 Q1:217 1
January 218 Labor Market Conditions Payroll Employment (SA) Period Level (s) MoM % Change YoY % Change Year-over-Year Percent Change in November 217 - Total November 147,241..16 1.43 Fifth District - Total November 14,81.4.6 1.4 - Total November 2,782.9.19 2.23 Logging, Mining, and Construction November 169.8-1.11 4.62 Manufacturing November 14.9 1.6 -.1 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities November 472..34 1.3 Information November 3.4-1.94 -.9 Financial Activities November 1.2 1.8.27 Professional and Business Services November 46..71 4.61 Education and Health Services November 477.8 -.4 3.2 Leisure and Hospitality November 27.4 -.1.81 Other Services November 116.9.34 2.27 Payroll Employment Performance Government November 1..31 1.82 Total Employment Performance Year-over-Year Percent Change in November 217 Metro Payroll Employment (NSA) Period Level (s) YoY % Change Baltimore-Towson MSA - Total November 1,428.7 1.2 California-Lexington Park MSA - Total November 4.7.88 Cumberland MSA - Total November 39.4-1.2 Hagerstown MSA - Total November 19.7 -.4 Salisbury MSA - Total November 1. 1.64 Silver Spring-Frederick Metro Div. - Total November 69.8 1.74 - Total Logging, Mining, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government (SA) Fifth District (SA) (SA) Baltimore-Towson MSA California-Lexington Park MSA Cumberland MSA -.1 -.1.3.8 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.3 3. 4.6 4.6-6 - -4-3 -2-1 1 2 3 4 6-1.3.9 1.2 1.4 1. 2.2 Hagerstown MSA -. Salisbury MSA Silver Spring-Frederick Metro Div. 1.6 1.7-2 -1 1 2 3 2
January 218 Labor Market Conditions Unemployment Rate (SA) November 17 October 17 November 16 Through November 217 4.1 4.1 4.6 Fifth District 4.1 4. 4.6 3.9 3.8 4.2 Baltimore-Towson MSA 4.2 3.9 4.3 California-Lexington Park MSA 4.1 3.7 3.9 Cumberland MSA.7.4.8 Hagerstown MSA 4.2 4. 4.3 Salisbury MSA.4.2. Silver Spring-Frederick Metro Div. 3.4 3.2 3.3 Civilian Labor Force (SA) Period Level (s) MoM % Change YoY % Change November 16,29.9.67 Fifth District November 16,31 -.7 1.26 Unemployment Rate November 3,246 -.18 2.3 Labor Force Baltimore-Towson MSA November 1,11 -.2 1.44 Year-over-Year Percent Change through November 217 California-Lexington Park MSA November 6 -.18 2.1 Cumberland MSA November 44 -.23. Hagerstown MSA November 133.1.3 Salisbury MSA November 188.11 1.7 Silver Spring-Frederick Metro Div. November 71 -.26 3.4 11 1 9 8 7 6 4 3 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. Initial Unemployment Claims (NSA) Period Level MoM % Change YoY % Change November 1,97,63 11.18-6.22 Fifth District November 6,173 2.82-2.4 November 1,769 7.43-11.6.. -. -1. -1. 3
January 218 Household Conditions Real Personal Income Real Personal Income (SA) Period Level ($mil) QoQ % Change YoY % Change Year-over-Year Percent Change through Q3:17 Q3:17 14,81,663.29 1.12 Fifth District Q3:17 1,413,29.28 1.48 Q3:17 32,378.2 1.14 Median Family Income Period Level (s) QoQ % Change YoY % Change Baltimore-Towson MSA 217 91.1 ---.7 Silver Spring-Frederick Metro Div. 217 114.2 --- 1.6 Cumberland MSA 217. ---. Hagerstown MSA 217 67.6 --- -3.29 Salisbury MSA 217 68.8 --- 1.97 Non-Business Bankruptcies Period Level QoQ % Change YoY % Change Q3:17 189,4-7.8-2.21 Fifth District Q3:17 1,41-7.4-1.86 Mortgage Delinquencies Q3:17 4,88-8.9 1.7 Percent 9+ Days Delinquent through Q3:17 Mortgage Delinquencies (% 9+ Days Delinquent) Q3:17 Q2:17 Q3:16 All Mortgages 1.29 1.2 1.41 Conventional - Fixed Rate.98.92 1. Conventional - Adjustable Rate 2.17 2.12 2.7 All Mortgages 1.64 1.6 1.8 Conventional - Fixed Rate 1.29 1.2 1.32 Conventional - Adjustable Rate 3.12 3.3 3.47 6 4 2-2 -4-6 6 4 3 2 1 4
January 218 Real Estate Conditions New Housing Units Permits: New Private Housing Units (NSA) Period Level MoM % Change YoY % Change Year-over-Year Percent Change through November 217 November 96,966-14.9 6.26 Fifth District November 13,439 -.86 3. November 1,114 21.3 1.96 Baltimore-Towson MSA November 396 9.9 28.16 Cumberland MSA November 3-66.67 --- Hagerstown MSA November 134 36.73 112.7 Salisbury MSA November 263-2.92-9.31 Total Private Housing Starts (SAAR) Period Level (s) MoM % Change YoY % Change November 1,297 3.26 12.88 Fifth District November 199 2.82 4.71 November 16..7 2.7 2 1 1 - -1 3 Housing Starts Thousands of Units (SAAR) November 217 3 2 2 1 1
January 218 Real Estate Conditions House Price Index (CoreLogic) House Price Index (2=1) Period Level MoM % Change YoY % Change Year-over-Year Percent Change through October 217 October 19.89 6.97 Fifth District October 19.11 4.6 October 199 -.2 3.34 Baltimore-Towson MSA October 19 -.71 2.6 Cumberland MSA October 168 -.24-7.33 Hagerstown MSA October 167 -.24 6. Salisbury MSA October 21 -.2 2.64 1 1 - Median Home Sales Price - NAR (NSA) Period Level ($s) QoQ % Change YoY % Change Baltimore-Towson MSA Q3:17 27-2.3 2.16 Cumberland MSA Q3:17 96-1.83 2.12 Hagerstown MSA Q3:17 173-1.3 3.3-1 -1-2 Median Home Sales Price - NAHB Period Level ($s) QoQ % Change YoY % Change Baltimore-Towson MSA Median Home Sales Price (NAR) Baltimore-Towson MSA Q3:17 2 1.21-7.41 Year-over-Year Percent Change through Q3:17 1 Silver Spring-Frederick Metro Div. Q3:17 4-2.2 14.61 Cumberland MSA Q3:17.. Hagerstown MSA Q3:17 172 1.26 7. Salisbury MSA Q3:17 19 14.71-6.7 - -1-1 6
January 218 Real Estate Conditions Baltimore-Towson MSA Office Vacancy Rate Housing Opportunity Index (%) Q3:17 Q2:17 Q3:16 Through Q3:17 Baltimore-Towson MSA 7.6 77.6 74.1 Silver Spring-Frederick Metro Div. 66.3 64.6 76.4 Cumberland MSA... Hagerstown MSA 84.8 86.7 9.2 Salisbury MSA 79.9 84.8 73.7 Commercial Vacancy Rates (%) Q3:17 Q2:17 Q3:16 Office Vacancies Baltimore-Towson MSA 12.1 12.3 12.2 Retail Vacancies Baltimore-Towson MSA.8 6. 6. Industrial Vacancies Baltimore-Towson MSA 12. 11. 12.8 11 Suburban (Washington, D.C. MSA) --- --- 11.8 Baltimore-Towson MSA Industrial Vacancy Rate 17 16 1 14 13 12 18 17 16 1 14 13 12 Through Q3:17 11 7