Small Business Contracting Trends & Outlook Kevin Plexico Vice President, Research Deltek, Inc.
Agenda Budget Trends and Outlook Small Business Contracting Trends Regulatory Update Keys to Success 2
Budget Trends & Outlook
Federal Contracting Trend After several years of decline, federal contract spending is recovering Civilian recovery began in 2014 In 2016, Defense had first increase in 5 years 2016 vs 2015 DOD up 8% Civilian up 4% 4
President s Budget for FY 2018 Highlights No change in total discretionary spending vs. budget caps Adds $52B to DOD Offset by cuts across most civilian agencies Includes elimination of funding to over 20 independent agencies President s Management Agenda The President s Management Agenda will set goals in areas that are critical to improving effectiveness, efficiency, cybersecurity and accountability By 2020, federal agencies Are managing programs and delivering critical services more effectively Are devoting a greater percentage of taxpayer dollars to mission achievement rather than compliance activities. Are more effective and efficient in supporting program outcomes Have been held accountable for improving performance 5
FY 2018 Request from President Trump vs. 2017 On March 16, President Trump released Budget Summary calling for $52B increase in DOD Increases for DHS & VA as well Offset by significant cuts in civilian spending Labor, USDA, State & EPA all would see 20%+ cuts Ten agencies with double digit cuts proposed
Contract Spending in Relation to Agency Budgets Agencies with likely increases from Trump Administration contract large percentages of budget dollars (e.g., DOD, DHS, VA) Agencies with significant decreases contract little of their budgets (e.g., EPA, Labor, Agriculture, and HUD)
Small Business Contracting Trends
How the Government Defines Small SBA determines size standards based on 3 year average: Business Size Measured by Annual Receipts or Number of Employees Industry Determination Based on North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) Establishing Size Standard Normally one size standard per NAICS, but there are exceptions Sizes vary widely based on factors such as capital requirements 9
Key Federal Socioeconomic Categories Socioeconomic Status Basis Certification Preference Programs Firms Registered Small Business Ownership Self-Certification Set-Aside 200,000+ Small Disadvantaged Business 8(a) BD Program HUBZone Program Women-Owned & Econ Disadv Women- Owned Service Disabled Veteran Owned Ownership Self-Certification N/A 100,000+ Ownership & Control Company HQ & Employee Location Ownership & Control Ownership & Control SBA Certification SBA Certification Self-Certification but moving to SBA Certification Self-Certification (except in the VA) Set-Aside & Sole Source Set-Aside, Sole Source & 10% Price Eval Preference Set-Asides but only in certain NAICS & Sole Source (added to FAR in Dec 2015) Set-Aside & Sole Source 4,500+ 4,100+ 88,000+ 20,000+ 10
The Shift to Small Business Contracting SBA Government Wide Goal 23% 5% 5% 3% 3% Source: Small Business Dashboard 11
Quarterly Spending with Small Businesses Small businesses tend to play a big role in industries that have high Q4 spending patterns (ex. AEC, IT, Prof Svcs) Source: FPDS, Deltek 12
Small Business Contracting by Department Goals vs. Achievement FY 2016 Department Eligible ($B) Goal Actual vs Goal Interior 3.1 53.5% 59.7% 6.2% State 8.6 22.5% 28.6% 6.1% USDA 5.9 52.5% 56.2% 3.7% DHS 14.0 33.5% 36.9% 3.4% Transportation 1.9 49.5% 52.0% 2.5% Defense 251.8 21.3% 23.0% 1.7% Justice 7.1 30.0% 31.6% 1.6% Commerce 4.6 40.0% 41.5% 1.5% HHS 23.7 22.8% 23.0% 0.2% NASA 16.0 16.8% 16.7% -0.1% Energy 26.5 6.4% 5.4% -1.0% Treasury 3.0 37.0% 35.9% -1.2% Education 2.4 25.5% 23.3% -2.2% Veterans Affairs 23.1 32.5% 29.9% -2.6% Source: Small Business Dashboard, Deltek Goals vary widely by agency as does achievement SBA calculates achievement based on Eligible dollars Agencies with the highest goals tend to be administrative organizations Agencies with lowest goals tend to have more technical missions 13
What Is Government Buying from Small Business? Significant growth in IT & Professional Services awarded to Small Business >25% of SB awards in IT Erratic trend in SB AEC spending is more of an indication of fluctuation in federal AEC spending Source: FPDS, Deltek 14
How Are Awards to Small Business Made? Over 35% of awards to Small Business are Unrestricted However, use of Set-Aside is growing rapidly Generally agencies are decreasing use of Sole Source approach Source: FPDS, Deltek 15
Impact of Contract Consolidation on Small Business Participation 25% decrease in the number of small business primes since 2010 16 Source: Deltek, FPDS
Opportunity Landscape GovWin IQ tracking nearly 3,700 opportunities set-aside Total contract value exceeds $172B VA provide most abundant SDVO opportunities Small Business Set-Aside is the most preferred among all other agencies 17
Regulatory Update Size Standard Revisions Recently adjusted for most NAICS with monetary based size standards Similarly Situated Small Business prime can achieve workshare requirement with similarly situated subs Final rule published in May 2016. Still needs to be adopted in the FAR. Mentor Protégé New program available to all small businesses modeled after 8(a) Mentor-Protégé program Final rule issued in July 2016, and SBA began accepting applications in September 2016. WOSB Sole Source Final rule passed in September 2015 and interim rule in the FAR in December 2015 Legislation Small Business Rule Making Process Rule Draft/ Comment Rule Finalized Execution 2-3 Years from Legislation to Execution/Implementation 18
The 4 Cs for Success as a Small Business For a Small Business to succeed, it needs successful execution on the 4 Cs Capabilities Capabilities Bringing to market a differentiated and demonstrable set of capabilities Compliance 4Cs Customers & Partners Customers & Partners Relationships with a set of customers and partners that have demand for those capabilities Contract Vehicles A sound strategy that establishes a foundation of contract vehicles for how those customers can get to you through vehicles they prefer (e.g., GSA Schedule, IDIQs, etc.) Contract Vehicles Compliance A strong understanding of the rules of the market that you can use to your advantage or as a differentiator (e.g., DCAA approved business systems, ISO/CMM certifications, small business rules, HR compliance, etc.) 19
How to Leverage GovWin Finding & Tracking Opportunities Identify future planned small business opportunities Identify expiring contracts to target for small business recompetes Account Planning and Customer Intelligence Research and purchasing patterns on over 1,300 federal organizations Partner and Competitor Intelligence Key primes in government agencies Subs that can augment your capabilities Existing small business competitors Regulatory and Market Intelligence Research, webinars and events to keep you abreast of market and regulatory trends Opportunity and Proposal Management Solutions Purpose built for government contractors Priced for the small business enterprise 20
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