Supporting youth integration into the labour market using skills intelligence and VET Expert, Cedefop 22-23 October 2012 Nicosia, Cyprus
2 Overview 1. The Jobs and Skills Puzzle. 2. The role of Labour Market & Skills Intelligence. 3. The role of VET in facilitating employability.
3 The Jobs and Skills Puzzle «What skills are needed in the labour market?»
4 Youth more severely affected by the crisis Unemployment rate by age group (EU27, %) Youth unemployment rate by level of education (EU27, %) 25 20 15 10 % 15 to 24 year olds 25 to 64 year olds % 30 25 20 15 10 Low (ISCED 0-2) Medium (ISCED 3-4) High (ISCED 5-6) 5 5 0 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 0 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 Source: Eurostat Note: data are not seasonally adjusted
5 Difficulty in matching skills with jobs Over-qualification rates by country, 45 employees, aged 25-34 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Over-qualification rates by age group (EU27) 40 20 0 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 Total PT GR IT ES FR IE SE AT NL PL DK LV CY BE UK LU HU BG SI LT RO CZ SK EE FI Source: EULFS, 2009
6 Overview 1. The Jobs and Skills Puzzle. 2. The role of Labour Market & Skills Intelligence. 3. The role of VET in facilitating employability.
7 EUROPE 2020 Agenda for NSJ/Employment package EU Sector Skills Councils Skills Panorama CEDEFOP Pan-European skill supply/demand forecasting 1 st Pan-European Pilot Employer Survey Pan-European skill mismatch & obsolescence survey
8 Demand by 2020 potential for young workforce Million jobs -4 0 4 8 12 16 Technicians and associate professionals Professionals Elementary occupations Legislators, senior officials and managers Service workers and shop and market sales workers Craft and related trades workers Clerks Plant and machine operators and assemblers Skilled agricultural and fishery workers Net change (expansion demand) Replacement demand Total job openings TOP 5 occupations most in demand by 2020 Other associate Sales professionals and services Elementary Personal occupations and Protective services Other workers Professionals Corporate Managers Expansion demand 2.9 1.0 0.5 2.0 1.0 Replacement demand 5.8 6.2 5.6 4.0 4.1 Total job openings 8.7 7.2 6.1 6.0 5.1 Source: Cedefop forecast model
9 Multipliers of Growth - Green & White Jobs People aged 80+ will increase from 4% to 12% by 2050 About 1,5m extra jobs in sector by 2020 About 1m more green jobs predicted by 2020. Need to top up existing skills (especially STEM). Misperceptions of dirty jobs among the young.
10 Overview 1. The Jobs and Skills Puzzle. 2. The role of Labour Market & Skills Intelligence. 3. The role of VET in facilitating employability.
11 VET as passport to labour market entry The EU labour force survey 2009 ad hoc module The entry of young people into the labour market In the EU27, Switzerland & Iceland Excludes Norway and, for transition indicators, Germany and Switzerland At upper secondary and post-secondary non-tertiary levels (ISCED 3 & 4)
12 Large country differences in VET systems VET system intensity and type (%, 25-34 year old graduates) Source: Cedefop calculations based on Eurostat, EULFS 2009 Ad Hoc Module. Excludes countries where VET type was not reported.
Millions Supporting youth integration via skills intelligence and VET 13 VET is key to meeting labour market needs Labour demand by qualification (LF 15-64) in EU-27+ 50% of all jobs will require medium level qualifications in 2020 Demand for more highly qualified workers implies structural changes and a need to diversify VET provision at the higher level 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 22 % 29 % 37 % 47 % 47 % 47 % 31 % 24 % 16 % 2000 2010 2020 Low qualification Medium qualification High qualification Source: Cedefop (IER estimates based on E3ME, EDMOD and BALMOD). Notes: EU27+ refers to the 27 EU Member States plus Norway and Switzerland
14 How many young VET graduates in the EU? 48% of all young people had a medium level qualification in 2009 And 72% of those were in VET Equivalent to over 23 million 25-34 year olds Most young adults (25-34 years old) with medium level educational attainment have VET backgrounds (EU, 2009) Source: Cedefop calculations based on Eurostat, EULFS 2009 Ad Hoc Module.
15 Typical pathways for young people in Europe Pathways for 18-24 year olds with medium level education in EU27 in 2009 (ISCED 3 and 4) General uppersecondary graduates tend to continue studying VET upper-secondary graduates tend to go straight to the labour market Continue study 74.8% Work 16.5% Unemp. or inactive 8.7% Note: many young people may study and work at the same time.
16 Positive labour market outcomes for VET Young VET graduates are more likely to be engaged in the labour market At the medium level: young VET graduates are more likely to be employed and less likely to be unemployed than young adults from the general stream Source: Cedefop calculations based on Eurostat, EULFS 2009 Ad Hoc Module. Data: EU27, 2009, excludes current students.
17 Young VET graduates move slightly more quickly into jobs Length of time between leaving formal education and starting the first job (of over 3 months, 25-29 year olds) Source: Cedefop calculations based on Eurostat, EULFS 2009 Ad Hoc Module. Data: EU27 excluding DE, 2009.
18 Young VET graduates more likely to find a suitable job match Duration of the first job (of over 3 months, 25-29 year olds) Source: Cedefop calculations based on Eurostat, EULFS 2009 Ad Hoc Module. Data: EU27 excluding DE, 2009.
19 Young general graduates more likely to spend prolonged periods without work Cumulative duration of non-employment after leaving formal education for the last time (25-29 year olds) Source: Cedefop calculations based on Eurostat, EULFS 2009 Ad Hoc Module. Data: EU27 excluding DE, 2009.
20 Meeting labour market needs: VET delivers what it is designed for Occupations for medium level graduates (EU27+, employed 15-34 year olds) Source: Cedefop calculations based on Eurostat, EULFS 2009 Ad Hoc Module. Excludes Norway.
21 But replacement and re-training will be necessary over time Future job opportunities: net change and replacement demand by 2020 (EU27+, 15-64 year-olds; VET share: 20-34 year-olds) Technicians and associate professionals Professionals Elementary occupations Legislators, senior officials and managers Service, shop and market sales workers Craft and related trades workers Clerks Plant and machine operators and Skilled agricultural and fishery workers Source: Cedefop (IER estimates based on E3ME, EDMOD and BALMOD). Notes: EU27+ refers to the 27 EU Member States plus Norway and Switzerland -2-2 -0-1 5 3 3 2 1 6% 24% 36% 33% 5 5 8 7 38% 45% 45% 9 9 53% 9 57% -4 0 4 8 12 16 20 12 11 Millions Expansion demand Replacement demand VET share
22 Conclusions VET provides good initial prospects for: Employment Finding a job quickly Finding a stable job Finding a job that matches your skills Over time, many VET & General graduates will need: Career guidance (which occupations will be in demand?) Lifelong learning to update or improve skills (formal or non-formal education) Industry or job-mobility and possibly re-training
Contact Information www.cedefop.europa.eu skills-analysis@cedefop.europa.eu