Energy Subsidy Reform: Lessons and Implications for India Thomas Richardson IMF Senior Resident Representative India Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) May 6, 2013
Outline 1. Global Experience with Subsidy Reform o Consequences of Energy Subsidies o Magnitude by Product and Region o International Lessons for Subsidy Reform 22 case studies (www.imf.org/subsidies) 2. Subsidy Reform in India (draft IMF WP) o Emphasis on Equity Considerations 3
Consequences of energy subsidies 1. Depress growth o Deter investment in energy sector o Crowd out critical public spending o Distort allocation of resources to energyintensive sectors 2. Put pressure on fiscal and current account deficits 3. Create negative externalities o Global warming (opposite of carbon taxes) 4. Exacerbate inequality (e.g., are regressive) 4
Definitions 1. Producer subsidies o Measured against international (reference) price 2. Consumer subsidies o Pre-tax subsidies o If consumer prices < cost of supply o Tax subsidies o If taxes are below efficient level (including taxes to offset externalities) o Pre-tax plus tax subsidy = post-tax subsidy 5
Magnitude of energy subsidies: Petroleum and electricity dominate pre-tax subsidies Pre tax: $480 billion (0.7% GDP, 2.1% revenues) Coal Electricity Petroleum products Natural gas 6
Magnitude of energy subsidies: Coal is also important for post-tax subsidies Post tax: $1.90 trillion (2.7% GDP, 8.1% revenues) Coal Petroleum products Electricity Natural gas Globally: posttax subsidies are 4 times larger than pre-tax subsidies 7
Middle East dominates pre-tax subsidies, but advanced economies account for 40 percent of post-tax subsidies Pre-tax Post-tax S.S. Africa Advanced S.S. Africa LAC Advanced MENA CEE-CIS MENA E.D. Asia E.D. Asia CEE-CIS LAC 8
Under-pricing for externalities accounts for a large share of post-tax subsidies across all regions 40 35 30 25 20 VAT (% revenues) Externality (% revenues) Pre-tax (% revenues) 15 10 5 0 MENA E.D. Asia CEE-CIS S.S. Africa LAC Advanced 9
International Lessons for Subsidy Reform o Based on 22 case studies o All 5 regions of the world o 28 reform episodes: 12 successes, 11 partial successes, 5 failures Uganda is one (success) Six key reform ingredients 10
Six Key Reform Ingredients 1. Comprehensive reform plan o o Clear long-term objectives Assess impact of reforms (who wins, loses) 2. Extensive communication strategy o o Transparency about size of subsidies Consult w/ stakeholders about benefits of reform 3. Appropriately phased, sequenced price hikes o o Allow time to adjust, build safety net Sequence increases differently across products Petrol & diesel, then LPG, then kerosene 11
Six Key Reform Ingredients 4. Improve efficiency of state-owned firms o Depoliticize, set performance targets, introduce competition if appropriate 5. Target mitigating measures to protect the poor o o Targeted cash transfers are preferred Expand other programs if cash transfers impossible 6. Depoliticize price (tariff) setting o Automatic, rules-based price mechanism May involve price smoothing o Autonomous body to oversee price setting 12
Case Study: Ugandan Electricity Sector Background: Power sector reformed in late 1990s Problem (as of 2011-12): Politicization: Independent regulator left tariffs unchanged for 10 years -- Subsidy (mainly on-budget) > 1% GDP -- Little investment in sector (load shedding) Solution: Broad discussion of incidence of benefits (only better-off families had power) One-off tariff hike & independent tariff setting mechanism 13
2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Million Tonnes India: Background on Fuel Sector Crude Oil and Petroleum Products: Production, Imports, and Exports Dom. Production Imports Exports 250 200 150 100 50 0-50 -100 Crude Petroleum Products Source: Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas 14
Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 India: Evolution of Fuel Product Prices & Subsidies Petrol (rupees/liter) 100 80 60 Subsidies Petrol - Formula price Petrol -Pump price 40 20 - (20) Source: IMF staff estimates based on authorities data 15
Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 India: Evolution of Fuel Product Prices & Subsidies Diesel (rupees/liter) 70 60 50 40 Subsidies Diesel - Formula price Diesel - Pump price 30 20 10 - (10) (20) Source: IMF staff estimates based on authorities data 16
Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 India: Evolution of Fuel Product Prices & Subsidies Kerosene (rupees/liter) 60 50 Subsidies Kerosene - Formula price Kerosene - PDS price 40 30 20 10 - Source: IMF staff estimates based on authorities data 17
Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 India: Evolution of Fuel Product Prices & Subsidies LPG (rupees/14.2 kg gas cylinder) 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 - Subsidies LPG - Formula price LPG - Retail price Source: IMF staff estimates based on authorities data 18
India: Under-pricing of Fuel Products (November 2012, rupees /liter or /cylinder) Import Parity Price Regulated Price Difference Percent of Regulated Price Kerosene 46.9 14.8 32.1 217.4 LPG 911.5 410.5 501.0 122.1 Diesel 57.0 47.2 9.8 20.9 Petrol 72.7 68.1 4.7 6.8 Source: IMF staff estimates 19
Percent of GDP India: Fiscal Cost of Fuel Subsidies 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 LPG Kerosene Diesel Gasoline 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 20
Percent of GDP India: Financing of Fuel Subsidies 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 Upstream OMCs Oil bonds Budget 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 21
Decile 1 Decile 2 Decile 3 Decile 4 Decile 5 Decile 6 Decile 7 Decile 8 Decile 9 Decile 10 India: Who spends what on fuel? Composition of HH Fuel Spending by Income Group, 2009-10 (Rupees per capita/month) 250 10 200 150 Kerosene LPG Petrol Diesel Share in total monthly expenditure (%, right scale) 8 6 100 4 50 2 0 0 Source: IMF staff estimates based on 2009-10 HH Socio-Economic Survey 22
India: Who benefits most from fuel subsidies? 160 Welfare Loss from Subsidy Reform by Income Group (Rupees per capita/month) 140 120 100 80 60 Indirect benefit Kerosene LPG Petrol Diesel 40 20 0 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th Source: IMF staff estimates based on 2009-10 HH Socio-Economic Survey 23
Decile 1 Decile 2 Decile 3 Decile 4 Decile 5 Decile 6 Decile 7 Decile 8 Decile 9 Decile 10 Cumulative Fiscal Cost of Compensating HHs for Subsidy Reform (in 2009-10: Percent of GDP) 1.0 0.8 Other goods and services Fuel only 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Source: IMF staff estimates based on 2009-10 HH Socio-Economic Survey 24
India: Progress is being made Kelkar Commission recommendations aligned with most of 6 key reform ingredients Petrol already mostly unsubsidized; diesel price increased significantly monthly path LPG cylinders limited per household, pilot Roll out of Aadhaar-based direct cash transfers is in pilot phase, to be rolled out across India Kerosene subsidy seen as delicate poverty impact could be significant 25
India: Assessing subsidy reforms to discuss: Comprehensive reform plan? Senior officials have spelled out ultimate goals, but sequencing, winners/losers not well understood by public Extensive communications strategy? PM, FM have made reform plans clear for diesel, less so for LPG and kerosene Gradual, sequenced reforms? Clear, sensible strategy: began with petrol, now diesel (gradual), then other products 26
India: Assessing subsidy reforms to discuss: Improvements in SOE efficiency? SEBs are raising power tariffs, but more work is needed Targeted social safety net? Impressive effort to introduce direct cash transfers based on UID Depoliticize price setting? Mostly done at state level, so picture is mixed across India 27
Thank you Both goals of expanding new investment and achieving energy efficiency require a more rational pricing policy, aligning India s energy prices with global prices. This cannot be done immediately, but we need to outline a phased programme for such adjustment and then work to develop support for making the transition. Prime Minister's Address to the Nation December 31, 2011 28
Want to know more? www.imf.org/subsidies: on energy subsidy reforms www.imf.org/asia: on our work in Asia Pacific www.imf.org/india: on IMF analysis of India 29
References & materials IMF Fiscal Affairs Dept project, with IMF African and Middle East and Central Asian Depts Includes case studies of 22 countries Available at: www.imf.org/subsidies Draft IMF working paper: The Fiscal and Welfare Impacts of Reforming Fuel Subsidies in India, by R. Anand, D. Coady, A. Mohommad, V. Thakoor, & J. P. Walsh Comments welcome! 30