2Q16 UNITED STATES MULTIHOUSING MARKET OVERVIEW
TABLE OF CONTENTS 2 United States Multihousing Market Overview 3 Executive Summary 4 Sales Volume 5 Sales Volume by Metro 6 Capitalization Rates 7 Capitalization Rates by Metro 8 Price Per Unit 9 Effective Rent Growth 10 Effective Rent Growth by Metro 11 Employment Growth 12 New Supply Matrix by Metro 13 Occupancy Rate 14 Top Buyers and Sellers 15 Global Yields 16 Foreign Investment into the US 17 International Capital 18 Mortgage Debt Outstanding 19 CMBS Origination Volume by Metro 20 Debt Market Trends 2
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Sales Volume Despite a slow first half for investment sales, multihousing has attracted more investment than any other sector over the past 12 months. Secondary markets have been the major beneficiaries of recent capital. New Supply 18-hour cities such as Austin, Charlotte, Denver and Nashville are experiencing much stronger inventory growth than the major supply-constrained metros. Cap Rates National cap rates compressed 10 basis points quarter-over-quarter, with spreads in secondary markets offering a significant premium over the six major markets. International Capital Robust demand from overseas investors was evident over the past 12 months, as sales volume from international capital rose 65.7%. Rent Growth Annual effective rent grew at a rate of 3.7% nationally, year-over-year. Several Western metros such as Sacramento, Seattle, Phoenix and Portland experienced rent growth that was double the national average. Debt Markets Mortgage debt outstanding increased 10.3% year-over-year, while CMBS origination volume totaled $10.6 billion through the first half of 2016. 3
Billions SALES VOLUME United States Following all-time highs in 2015, sales volume moderated in the first half of 2016, as buyers remained selective. $180 $150 $120 $90 In 2Q16, sales volume reached $32.7 billion, representing a 5.0% year-over-year increase. With $157.5 billion invested in the sector, multihousing has accounted for the largest share of sales volume over the past four quarters, surpassing the traditionally topranked office sector. Volume by Market Tier Past 12 Months $60 $30 Tertiary Markets 12.2% Secondary Markets 50.4% Major Markets 37.4% $0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Rolling 12 Month Total Quarterly Total Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 4
SALES VOLUME Top 20 Metros, Past 12 Months While gateway markets remain a preferred destination, investors are gravitating to key secondary markets with strong demographics. Charlotte $2.3 San Diego $2.5 Raleigh-Durham $2.6 Orlando $2.8 Tampa $2.8 Baltimore $2.9 Austin $3.0 Boston $3.5 Houston $3.6 Chicago $4.1 Phoenix $4.9 Seattle $5.0 San Francisco Metro $6.2 Denver $6.4 South Florida $6.6 Atlanta $6.7 Washington DC Metro $7.8 Dallas $8.2 Los Angeles Metro $10.9 New York Metro $25.8 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 South Florida Significant Year-over-Year Sales Volume Growth 103.2% Las Vegas 97.1% Phoenix 47.9% Denver 47.5% DC Metro 46.1% Charlotte 46.0% Boston 42.8% Tampa 35.9% Billions Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 5
CAPITALIZATION RATES United States National cap rates decreased 10 basis points quarter-over-quarter. Yields remain stable throughout both major and secondary markets. 10.0% By Region Mid-Atlantic 5.1% Midwest 5.4% 8.0% Northeast 4.0% 6.0% 4.0% US Long-Term Average = 5.5% 5.0% Southeast 5.4% Southwest 5.3% West 4.8% By Type Garden 5.2% Mid/Highrise 4.2% Student Housing 4.9% 2.0% By Market Tier Major Markets 4.3% Non-Major Markets 5.3% 0.0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 6
CAPITALIZATION RATES By Metro With major markets averaging a yield of 4.3%, investors are moving into secondary markets for greater yields and attractive growth prospects. SEATTLE 4.4% SAN FRANCISCO 3.8% SAN JOSE 4.2% PORTLAND 5.2% LOS ANGELES 4.2% SACRAMENTO 4.6% SAN DIEGO 4.6% LAS VEGAS 5.3% SALT LAKE CITY 5.2% PHOENIX 4.7% DENVER 4.9% WICHITA 5.9% MINNEAPOLIS 5.2% OKLAHOMA CITY 5.5% TULSA SAN ANTONIO 5.6% KANSAS CITY 5.3% CHICAGO 4.8% 5.8 % LITTLE ROCK 5.9% DALLAS 4.9% AUSTIN 5.0% ST. LOUIS 5.5% HOUSTON 5.5% DETROIT 6.0% INDIANAPOLS 5.8% CINCINNATI 5.8% MEMPHIS 5.6% NASHVILLE 5.4% CLEVELAND 6.2% COLUMBUS 5.6% CHARLOTTE 5.1% ATLANTA 5.0% TAMPA 5.2% BOSTON 4.5% MANHATTAN 3.6% PHIALDELPHIA 5.1% WASHINGTON DC 4.9% RALEIGH-DURHAM 5.2% JACKSONVILE 5.3% ORLANDO 5.2% PALM BEACH 4.8% MIAMI 4.6% Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 7
PRICE PER UNIT United States The national price per unit increased 9.1% year-over-year points to continued net operating income growth at the property level. $250,000 By Region $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $183,254 US Long-Term Average = $133,795 Mid-Atlantic $189,483 Midwest $152,773 Northeast $361,945 Southeast $126,739 Southwest $152,813 West $217,247 By Type Garden $139,827 Mid/Highrise $315,387 Student Housing $225,334 $50,000 By Market Tier Major Markets $302,833 Non-Major Markets $142,737 $0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 8
EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH United States In 2Q16, the national average effective rent rose to $1,277, although annualized rent growth fell to 3.7% year-over-year. $1,500 9.0% $1,200 5.7% 4.8% 6.0% $900 3.0% $600 0.0% $300-3.0% $0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016-6.0% Effective Rent Annualized Effective Rent Growth Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Axiometrics 9
EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH Annual and Quarterly Statistics Rent growth remains strong throughout the country, although Western metros have experienced the largest gains. Top Markets by Annual Effective Rent Growth for 2Q16 Sacramento 10.4% Seattle 7.9% Phoenix 7.6% Portland 7.4% Riverside 7.3% Fort Worth 6.7% Tampa 6.6% Nashville 6.3% Orlando 6.3% Salt Lake City 6.3% Las Vegas 6.3% San Diego 6.3% Palm Beach 5.8% Atlanta 5.8% Austin 5.3% Top Markets by Quarterly Effective Rent Growth for 2Q16 Seattle 5.4% Sacramento 5.3% Boston 4.3% Charleston 4.1% Denver 4.0% Portland 3.8% Chicago 3.6% Las Vegas 3.5% Fort Worth 3.2% San Diego 3.2% Riverside 3.2% Richmond 3.2% Raleigh-Durham 3.1% Oakland 3.1% Washington DC 3.0% Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Axiometrics, Costar 10
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH Top 20 Metros, Year-Over-Year Change Technology and healthcare-driven metros in the Sunbelt and Western region continue to exhibit the strongest job growth. SEATTLE 3.6% PORTLAND 2.7% SAN FRANCISCO 2.9% SAN JOSE 3.7% LOS ANGELES 2.7% RIVERSIDE 3.3% SALT LAKE CITY 3.0% PHOENIX 3.1% DENVER 3.1% DALLAS 3.7% NASHVILLE 2.7% ATLANTA 3.0% RICHMOND 3.7% RALEIGH 3.3% JACKSONVILLE 3.6% ORLANDO 4.2% AUSTIN 3.9% TAMPA 3.7% SAN ANTONIO 2.9% MIAMI 2.6% Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (May 2016) 11
New Supply (Units) NEW SUPPLY MATRIX Select Markets, Past 12 Months Inventory growth remains strongest throughout the Sunbelt, where developers are building new, quality product that is increasingly in demand. 25,000 20,000 New York Houston 15,000 Dallas 10,000 Washington DC Atlanta Seattle Denver Austin Los Angeles San Antonio Phoenix Boston Charlotte Orlando Chicago Miami 5,000 San Diego Portland Nashville San Jose Tampa Raleigh-Durham San Francisco Las Vegas Philadelphia Salt Lake City St. Louis Sacramento 0 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Inventory Growth Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Axiometrics 12
OCCUPANCY RATE United States The national occupancy rate increased to 95.2% in 2Q16, the highest level on record in recent history. 96.0% 95.2% 95.0% 94.8% 94.0% US Long-Term Average = 93.8% 93.0% 92.0% 91.0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Axiometrics 13
TOP BUYERS AND SELLERS Past 12 Months, $ in Billions Several buyers expanded their portfolios considerably, with Starwood, Lone Star and Blackstone adding over 25,000 units. Top Buyers Top Sellers Blackstone $9.2 Home Properties $8.5 Lone Star $7.9 Equity Residential $6.8 Starwood Capital Group $7.2 CWCapital $5.9 Ivanhoé Cambridge $5.7 Greystar Real Estate Partners $3.2 Brookfield Asset Mgmt $2.6 Associated Estates $2.6 Harrison Street Real Estate $1.9 Fairfield Residential $2.4 Guardian Life Insurance $1.5 Landmark Apt Trust $1.9 TruAmerica Multifamily $1.4 Campus Crest $1.8 Scion Group $1.4 InvenTrust $1.4 CPP Investment Board $1.3 Lone Star $1.2 Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 14
554 Bps 523 Bps 501 Bps 477 Bps 417 Bps 392 Bps 363 Bps 345 Bps 325 Bps 299 Bps 213 Bps GLOBAL YIELDS 10 Year Government Bond Yields vs. Multihousing Cap Rates Multihousing continues to offer greater returns in a volatile investment environment, especially compared with foreign government bond yields. 5.50% United States Multihousing Cap Rate Average = 5.0% 4.00% China 2.50% United Kingdom Canada South Korea United States Singapore Australia 1.00% France Japan Germany Switzerland -0.50% -2.00% Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics, Trading Economics (July 15, 2016) 15
FOREIGN INVESTMENT INTO THE US Top Regions and Countries of Origin, Past 12 Months International capital sales volume has surged to $17.4 billion, representing a 65.7% year-overyear increase. NORTH AMERICA Singapore $1.5 B $12.1 B EUROPE China $810.9 M $1.8 B South Korea $175.5 M Canada $12.1 B MIDDLE EAST $2.1 B ASIA PACIFIC $2.7 B UK Sweden Switzerland France Germany $587.2 M $505.0 M $295.8 M $163.5 M $135.9 M Israel Bahrain UAE Qatar Kuwait $571.0 M $539.7 M $398.0 M $381.7 M $208.2 M Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 16
INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL Top Buyers and Destinations, Past 12 Months Overseas investors continue to chase yield into top-tier secondary markets such as Atlanta, Dallas, Phoenix and Raleigh-Durham. Top Buyers Top Market Destinations Ivanhoé Cambridge Canada $5.7 B Brookfield Asset Management Canada $2.6 B GIC Singapore $1.3 B CPP Investment Board Canada $1.3 B Investcorp Bahrain $539.7 M Akelius Residential Sweden $505.0 M Other 33.3% Manhattan 35.4% Electra Ltd Israel $437.7 M ADIA UAE $398.0 M Qatar Investment Authority Qatar $381.7 M Grosvenor UK $373.2 M Kuafu Properties China $303.4 M Venterra Properties Canada $293.0 M Shanghai Construction Group China $260.8 M Ergas Group Canada $247.6 M Pure Multi-Family REIT Canada $236.0 M Charlotte 2.5% San Jose 3.8% Los Angeles 3.8% No. Virginia 3.9% Dallas 4.0% Raleigh- Durham 4.0% Phoenix 4.1% Atlanta 5.3% Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Real Capital Analytics 17
Billions MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDING United States Multihousing debt outstanding rose to an alltime high of $1.1 trillion in 2Q16, growing 62.9% over the past 10 years. $1,200 $1,111.1 Multihousing mortgage debt outstanding increased 10.3% yearover-year to $1.1 trillion. $1,000 $800 $864.4 Despite recent volatility in the treasury rates and broader capital markets, there is very strong liquidity and attractive pricing across the capital stack. $600 $400 $200 Debt capital remains available, particularly for top-quality assets in strong submarkets. The debt market is growing, and debt for non-gateway markets is increasingly available. $0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 18
CMBS ORIGINATION VOLUME Top 20 Markets, 2016 Year-to-Date CMBS origination volume totaled $10.6 billion through the first half of 2016, with the Los Angels metro contributing 10.4% overall. SEATTLE $280.4 M SAN FRANCISCO $610.2 M CHICAGO $438.4 M DETROIT $113.9 M NEW YORK $338.0 M WASHINGTON DC $433.7 M SAN JOSE $110.6 M LOS ANGELES $1.1 B RIVERSIDE $183.9 M SAN DIEGO $298.2 M PHOENIX $128.4 M DENVER $989.3 M DALLAS $646.3 M NASHVILLE $141.7 M ATLANTA $367.7 M CHARLOTTE $112.4 M JACKSONVILLE $114.5 M ORLANDO $131.5 M HOUSTON $480.0 M MIAMI $298.2 M Greater than $1B $500-999M $250-499M $100-249M Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Trepp 19
DEBT MARKET TRENDS United States Continued liquidity coupled with a sustained Fed policy should keep rates at or near their historically low levels for an extended period. Current One Year Ago Banks have become more selective due to increased scrutiny from regulators. Despite early volatility in the market, CMBS lending continues to provide Banks 32.8% Banks 30.9% additional liquidity and thereby providing more options for borrowers. Agency & GSE 44.1% Agency & GSE 42.7% The debt markets are experiencing intense lender competition and increased production targets. CMBS 5.3% CMBS 7.2% Others 12.0% Life Insurance 5.8% Others 13.4% Life Insurance 5.8% Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research, Mortgage Bankers Association 20
New York City HEADQUARTERS 125 Park Avenue New York, NY 10017 212.372.2000 Jonathan Mazur Managing Director, Research 212.372.2154 jmazur@ngkf.com Michael Wolfson Capital Markets Research Analyst 212.372.2453 mwolfson@ngkf.com Newmark Grubb Knight Frank has implemented a proprietary database and our tracking methodology has been revised. With this expansion and refinement in our data, there may be adjustments in historical statistics including availability, asking rents, absorption and effective rents. Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research Reports are also available at www.ngkf.com/research All information contained in this publication is derived from sources that are deemed to be reliable. However, Newmark Grubb Knight Frank (NGKF) has not verified any such information, and the same constitutes the statements and representations only of the source thereof, and not of NGKF. Any recipient of this publication should independently verify such information and all other information that may be material to any decision that recipient may make in response to this publication, and should consult with professionals of the recipient s choice with regard to all aspects of that decision, including its legal, financial, and tax aspects and implications. Any recipient of this publication may not, without the prior written approval of NGKF, distribute, disseminate, publish, transmit, copy, broadcast, upload, download, or in any other way reproduce this publication or any of the information it contains. www.aranewmark.com