Trade Idea - Buy Color Group FRN NOK 2019 (OUTRIGHT) or - finance purchase by Selling Tallink FRN NOK 2018 (SWITCH) Senior Analyst Niklas Ripa niklas.ripa@danskebank.com +45 45 12 80 47 27 October 2015 Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 9 of this presentation Investment Research
Color Group business description Short business description Route network Norway s largest short-sea shipping company, Color Line. Color Group AS is privately owned by Olav Nils Sunde and family. The fleet numbers six vessels. Market shares: 55% of all sea-based passenger traffic into Norway 23% of all goods hauled to Norway by road. The routes Larvik-Hirtshals, Kristiansand-Hirtshals and Sandefjord-Strømstad are efficient transportationinfrastructure -type of routes. The Oslo-Kiel route is primarily a cruise/leisure-type of route. The cruise business resembles a floating resort/leisure company. Color Line s goal is to be Europe s best cruise and freight shipping firm. Please also see the Color Group (and Tallink) company profile in our latest Scandi High Yield Handbook, 15 October 2015. Source: Company data 2
Color Group overview credit profile EBITDA breakdown Credit metrics Cruise Transport NOKm 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2008 2007 2006 2005 Adj. Net debt 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Adj. Net debt/adj. EBITDA, rhs 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Debt maturity profile Expected 12M liquidity profile per H1 15 NOKm 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 Ship mortgages Bond loans NOKm 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 600 400 400 200 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 >2019 200 0 Cash outflow Cash inflow Source all charts: Company reports, Danske Bank Markets estimates Short term debt Dividend CAPEX Cash & Equivalents Est. LTM CFO Committed facilities We expect moderately stronger future credit metrics. 3
Color Group key credit drivers Economic development Transport volumes Passengers, million Freigt units (12m), rhs, thousand 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 Currency Oil price Source all charts: Company reports, Danske Bank Markets & Macrobond Financial Color Lines volumes increased during the crisis years of 2008-2011. 4
Color Group overview credit profile Base case Key figures (NOKm) 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Net sales 4,552 4,594 4,640 4,687 4,780 EBITDA 568 571 657 830 846 EBITDA (adj.) 761 757 843 1,016 1,032 Net financial expenses 223 285 197 202 200 Net income 56-99 137 262 283 FFO 382 235 410 531 541 Capex 88 124 150 100 100 EBITDA-Capex 479 448 507 730 746 Retained cash flow 281 75 160 281 291 FOCF 253 315 256 427 433 Net debt 4,123 3,935 3,929 3,753 3,569 Net debt (adj.) 5,521 5,147 5,141 4,965 4,781 Equity (incl. minorities) 1,875 1,502 1,389 1,401 1,435 Total debt 4,784 4,302 4,118 4,166 4,177 Total capital 6,658 5,805 5,507 5,568 5,612 Ratios (adjusted) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Sales growth -2% 2% -2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% EBITDA (NOKm) 969 914 868 761 757 843 1,016 1,032 EBITDA margin 21% 20% 19% 17% 16% 18% 22% 22% EBITDA Interest coverage 4.3x 3.3x 2.7x 2.6x 2.8x 3.1x 3.6x 3.7x FFO / Net debt 15% 9% 9% 9% 7% 10% 13% 14% Net debt / EBITDA 5.8x 6.0x 6.4x 7.3x 6.8x 6.1x 4.9x 4.6x Total debt / Total capital 73% 75% 76% 76% 78% 79% 79% 79% Source: Company reports, Danske Bank Markets estimates We expect moderately stronger future credit metrics (but leverage will still be high) We include earlier executed cost reductions of NOK120m annually from 2015 onwards. Upside of NOK100-200m annually if/when new seafarer net salary subsidy law is implemented in Norway (maybe already part of fiscal budget 2016 onwards) or alternatively the company decides to reflag its ships to a lower-cost regime. Upside of up to +NOK100m annually if oil price stays low over the coming years (although effect may be mitigated by weak NOK). 5
Color Group valuation Relative value (EUR), ask spreads Credit Spreads* 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 COLLIN 6.44% 2016 COLLIN 5.97% 2015 COLLIN 5.68% 2017 STENA 6.125% 2017 DFDSDC 4.78% 2016 COLLIN 6.43% 2019 COLLIN 5.98% 2020 TALLNK 6.12% 2018 DFDSDC 4.1% 2018 HRGNO 7.5% 2020 STENA 5.875% 2019 STENA 7.875% 2020 DFDSDC 1.63% 2019 MAERSK 3.375% 2019 DSVDC 3.5% 2020 MAERSK 2.875% 2020 STENA 7% 2024 STENA 5.75% 2024 Nordic B** Nordic BB** 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Years to maturity*** * Spreads are swapped to indicated currency and prioritised in accordance with availability of Z-spread, ASW spread, discount margin. ** Nordic BB includes BB+/BB/BB- issues and Nordic B includes B+/B/B- issues with spreads below 700bp. *** Years to legal maturity or years to first-call date (shortest used). Source: Bloomberg and Danske Bank Markets. Credit spread development ASW Issue Currency 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 apr-2015 maj-2015 jun-2015 jul-2015 aug-2015 sep-2015 COLLIN NOK 6.43% 2019 HRGNO EUR 7.5% 2022 TALLNK NOK 6.12% 2018 We continue to view Color Goup as a B+ credit (bond issue level). Recent significant spread widening presents a buying opportunity for investors able/willing to hold NOK exposure, in our view, given our expectation of better cash flows and a moderately stronger future credit profile. Color Group bonds appear undervalued while Tallink bond appear `fairly` valued on a relative value basis. Of the Color Group bonds, we prefer the FRN 2019 NOK due to its current pricing. 6
Sell FRN Tallink 2018, Buy Color Group FRN 2019 Add 0.9 years of Color Group exposure and earn a 105bp higher discount margin/yield p.a. Slightly higher credit risk in Color Group than in Tallink. SELL - Tallink FRN 2018 BUY Color Group FRN 2019 Difference ISIN: NO0010682255 NO0010657919 - Currency NOK NOK - DBM shadow rating `BB-` `B+` -1 notch Type of instrument Senior unsecured Senior unsecured - Coupon Type FRN FRN Coupon 3M NIBOR +500bp 3M NIBOR +525bp - Maturity October 18, 2018 September 18, 2019 Cash price 101.00 (indicative, bid) 98.50 (indicative, ask) -2.500 Callable Yes, @ at price of 101 in case of change of control event. Yes, @ price of100 101 in case of change of control event. Current YTM 5.75% p.a. 6.80% p.a. +1.05% p.a. DM +464bp +569bp +105bp Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets - 7
Color Group Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats Strengths Relatively resilient business, proven during a downturn. Adequate competitive position in the Norwegian seabased cruise and transport sector. Low country risk exposure. Relatively high barriers to entry. Adequate liquidity risk profile. Weaknesses Shipping is cyclical by nature, although cruise and liner shipping is less volatile than commodity-based shipping. High operational and financial leverage. Higher cost levels than direct competitors. Narrow business focus. Below average profitability compared with rated transportation and infrastructure companies. Opportunities Execution of cost reductions. Lower future bunker fuel prices. Lower future capex requirements. Significant cash flow opportunity in a change in the Norwegian Seafarer regime or alternatively a flagging out of Norway if current Norwegian rules are not amended. Threats High competition, direct ferry competitors (e.g. Fjord line) and trucks and airplanes. Cash leakage risk: no firm dividend policy rule in place. Limited covenant protection in unsecured documentation. Exposed to possible legal claim from an old competitor. The company does not see any merit in the claim. Subordination risk in relation to prior ranking ship mortgage debt. 8
Disclosures This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S ( Danske Bank ). The author of the research report is Niklas Ripa, Senior Analyst. Analyst certification Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report. Regulation Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from Danske Bank on request. The research reports of Danske Bank are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Financial Analysts rules of ethics and the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association. Conflicts of interest Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of high-quality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in Danske Bank s research policies. Employees within Danske Bank s Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Bank s Research Departments are organised independently from and do not report to other business areas within Danske Bank. Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions. Danske Bank, its affiliates, subsidiaries and staff may perform services for or solicit business from Color Group ortallink Group and may hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in, the financial instruments mentioned in this research report. The Equity and Corporate Bonds analysts of Danske Bank and undertakings with which the Equity and Corporate Bonds analysts have close links are, however, not permitted to invest in financial instruments that are covered by the relevant Equity or Corporate Bonds analyst or the research sector to which the analyst is linked. Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries are engaged in commercial banking, securities underwriting, dealing, trading, brokerage, investment management, investment banking, custody and other financial services activities, may be a lender to Color Group or Tallink Group and have whatever rights are available to a creditor under applicable law and the applicable loan and credit agreements. At any time, Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries may have credit or other information regarding Color Group or Tallinkg Group that is not available to or may not be used by the personnel responsible for the preparation of this report, which might affect the analysis and opinions expressed in this research report. Within the previous 12 months, Danske Bank has acted as Lead Manager of a public offer of credit bonds for Color Group AS and Co-Lead Manager of a public offer of credit bonds for Color Group ASA. As an investment bank, Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries provide a variety of financial services, including investment banking services. It is possible that Danske Bank and/or its affiliates and/or its subsidiaries might seek to become engaged to provide such services to Color Group or Tallink Group in the next three months. Danske Bank has made no agreement with Color Group or Tallink Group to write this research report. No parts of this research report have been disclosed to Color Group or Talllink Group. No recommendations or opinions have been disclosed to Color Group or Tallink Group and no amendments have accordingly been made to the same before dissemination of the research report. 9
Financial models and/or methodology used in this research report Calculations and presentations in this research report are based on standard econometric tools and methodology as well as publicly available statistics for each individual security, issuer and/or country. Documentation can be obtained from the authors on request. Risk warning Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this research report, including a sensitivity analysis of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text. Expected updates n.a. See the front page of this research report for the date of first publication. Recommendation structure Investment recommendations are based on the expected development in the credit profile as well as relative value compared with the sector and peers. As at 30 September 2015 Danske Bank Markets had investment recommendations on 51 corporate bond issuers. The distribution of recommendations is represented in the distribution of recommendations column below. The proportion of issuers corresponding to each of the recommendation categories above to which Danske Bank provided investment banking services in the previous 12 months ending 30 September 2015 is shown below. Rating Anticipated performance Time horizon Distribution of recommendations Investment banking relationships Overweight Outperformance relative to peer group 3 months 27% 50% Marketweight Performance in line with peer group 3 months 51% 35% Underweight Underperformance relative to peer group 3 months 22% 45% Changes in recommendation for both Color Group and Tallink Group within the past 12 months. Date New recommendation Old recommendation 30 September 2014 Not Rated N/A 10
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