European Freight Forwarding Index Volume development in April 15 Finn Bjarke Petersen finpe@danskebank.dk +45 45 12 36 Philip Levin phle@danskebank.dk +45 45 13 21 85 Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 9 of this report. Investment Research
Main conclusion from survey Danske Bank Markets European Freight Forwarding Index indicates an increase in volumes in April compared with two months ago. The overall index of current volumes came in at 55 compared with March s figure of 58. Expectation figures suggest an increase in volumes for the coming two months. 7 5 55 3 Jan/1 Apr/1 Jul/1 Oct/1 Jan/11 Apr/11 Jul/11 Oct/11 Jan/12 Apr/12 Jul/12 Oct/12 Jan/13 Apr/13 Jul/13 Oct/13 Jan/14 Apr/14 Jul/14 Oct/14 Jan/15 Apr/15 6 per. Mov. Avg. () 2
Increasing volumes continues in April The volumes increased compared with two months ago, and the overall index for current volumes came in at 55 in April from 58 in March. The forward index values were 61 for May and for June, which indicate expectation of increasing volumes. The road index of 57 indicates higher volumes compared with two months ago. Expectations for Road came in at 61 for June (May figures ended at 68). Thus, We also see an indication of increasing road volumes in the coming two months. The Seafreight index of 5 in April (63 in March) indicates increasing volumes compared with two months ago. Expectations for Seafreight came in at in June, which is higher than May s expectations figure of 56, and suggest increasing volumes in the next two months. The current Airfreight index of 57 (63 in March) indicates higher volumes compared with two months ago. Expectations for Airfreight came in at 57 for June which is greater than May s figure of 54 and implies higher volumes over the coming two months time. 3
Segment breakdown of survey Road 1 Seafreight 1 57 61 5 Mar/1 Feb/11 Jan/12 Dec/12 Nov/13 Oct/14 Mar/1 Feb/11 Jan/12 Dec/12 Nov/13 Oct/14 Airfreight 1 Mar/1 Feb/11 Jan/12 Dec/12 Nov/13 Oct/14 57 57 Source: Danske Bank Markets 4
Country breakdown of survey Denmark 1 Sweden 1 69 69 Finland 56 5 Mar/1 Feb/11 Jan/12 Dec/12 Nov/13 Oct/14 Mar/1 Feb/11 Jan/12 Dec/12 Nov/13 Oct/14 Norway Finland 1 1 5 45 65 55 Mar/1 Feb/11 Jan/12 Dec/12 Nov/13 Oct/14 Mar/1 Feb/11 Jan/12 Dec/12 Nov/13 Oct/14 5
Country breakdown of survey Germany 1 UK 1 5 45 65 5 Mar/1 Feb/11 Jan/12 Dec/12 Nov/13 Oct/14 Mar/1 Feb/11 Jan/12 Dec/12 Nov/13 Oct/14 Eastern Europe Benelux 1 1 75 42 5 Mar/1 Feb/11 Jan/12 Dec/12 Nov/13 Oct/14 Mar/1 Apr/11 May/12 Jun/13 Jul/14 6
Country breakdown of survey Switzerland Other 1 1 57 43 75 58 Mar/1 Feb/11 Jan/12 Dec/12 Nov/13 Oct/14 Mar/1 Feb/11 Jan/12 Dec/12 Nov/13 Oct/14 7
How the survey is conducted Our respondents have answered these two questions: What volume of goods does your company handle today compared with two months ago (adjusted for normal seasonality in the business)? Lower volumes Unchanged volumes Higher volumes How do you expect volumes of goods to develop over the next two months (adjusted for normal seasonality in the business)? Lower volumes Unchanged volumes Higher volumes Their answers have been translated into an index value which can vary between and 1, with values above 5 indicating expansion among participating companies. Other 1% Other 8% Benelux 7% Airfreight 14% Road 42% Switzerland 5% UK 14% Denmark 18% Sweden 9% Eastern Europe 12% Seafreight 34% Norway 7% Germany 11% Finland 9% 8
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