CONNECTICUT: ECONOMIC FUTURE WITH EDUCATIONAL REFORM This file contains detailed projections and information from the article: Eric A. Hanushek, Jens Ruhose, and Ludger Woessmann, It pays to improve school quality: States that boost student achievement could reap large economic gains, Education Next, Summer 2016 http://educationnext.org/pays-improve-school-quality-student-achievement-economic-gain/
U.S. and State Interests Future depends on skills of the population True for the nation and for individual states Improvements in student achievement return very large economic returns to states Feasible gains would provide more incomes to state than total spending on K-12 education
Cognitive Skills and Long Run Economic Growth: International Evidence Growth in GDP/pop over1960-2000 as related to math and science skills and conditional on income levels in 1960
Test Scores and Growth: U.S. states ND 2.5 1.5 2 3 MS AL NV UT CT VA LA SD MA MD NY NJ NE CO MN NC NH RI OR GA WA TNKS IL CA AR IA OK PA WI HI SC IN VT MEKY MO NM FL WV MT OH AZ ID TX MI 460 470 480 490 500 510 Conditional average test score Growth in GDP/pop over1970-2010 for states as related to math skills and conditional on income levels in 1970
Connecticut s Position in the U.S. The economic performance of states is dependent upon the skills of their populations. States compete with each other in terms of the skills of their population. National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) for 2013 tracks current schools
Massachusetts New Jersey New Hampshire Vermont Minnesota North Dakota Washington Colorado Pennsylvania Ohio Kansas Montana Wisconsin Maine Texas Virginia Wyoming Indiana South Dakota Maryland Idaho North Carolina Connecticut Iowa Nebraska Illinois National Utah Rhode Island Oregon Missouri Delaware New York Alaska Hawaii Florida Kentucky Michigan South Carolina Arizona Georgia Nevada Arkansas Tennessee California Oklahoma West Virginia New Mexico Louisiana Mississippi Alabama District of Columbia NAEP Score 325 NAEP 8th Grade Mathematics, 2013 Connecticut is at 51st percentile of U.S. distribution Connecticut is at 34th percentile of Massachusetts distribution 300 275 250 225
District of Columbia Massachusetts New Jersey Minnesota Texas Colorado Maryland Pennsylvania New Hampshire Connecticut Vermont North Carolina Illinois Washington Virginia Wisconsin Kansas Alaska North Dakota Ohio National Arizona New York South Dakota Rhode Island Delaware Montana Indiana Nebraska South Carolina Georgia California Florida Idaho Utah Wyoming Hawaii Oregon Maine New Mexico Iowa Nevada Missouri Michigan Arkansas Mississippi Louisiana Tennessee Kentucky Oklahoma Alabama West Virginia NAEP Score 325 NAEP 8th Grade Mathematics, White Students, 2013 Connecticut is at 53rd percentile of U.S. distribution Connecticut is at 38th percentile of Massachusetts distribution 300 275 250
Projection Methodology Educational improvements steady until reaching the post- 2015 goals in 2030 Work life of 40 years Growth rate is based on the average skill of workers Consider horizon of somebody born today (80 years) Future gains in GDP are discounted to the present with a 3% discount rate Implies the projections are directly comparable to current levels of GDP
Value of Improvement to Connecticut 1. Increasing average achievement by ¼ standard deviation. 2. Bringing each state up to the best state (Minnesota). 3. Bringing each state up to the best in the geographic division (Massachusetts). 4. Bringing all students in a state up to the NAEP basic level. 5. Scenario 2 with single state improvement. 6. Equaling Canada 7. Equaling Finland
Mississippi Alabama Louisiana New Mexico Hawaii California Arkansas West Virginia Tennessee Nevada Georgia Florida Arizona Oklahoma Kentucky Rhode Island South Carolina USA Delaware North Carolina New York Illinois Michigan Missouri Maryland Texas Alaska Utah Virginia Pennsylvania Ohio Indiana Oregon Idaho Colorado Washington Wyoming Connecticut Nebraska Maine New Jersey Kansas Wisconsin South Dakota Iowa New Hampshire Vermont Montana Massachusetts North Dakota Minnesota Present Value of State GDP 2. Equal Minnesota level: 205% of current GDP 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
New Mexico Nevada Hawaii California Rhode Island Arizona Louisiana Mississippi Missouri West Virginia Alabama Arkansas Georgia Florida Illinois Michigan Utah New York USA South Carolina Nebraska Idaho Connecticut Colorado Kansas Wyoming Oklahoma Tennessee South Dakota Iowa Maine Delaware North Carolina Ohio Indiana Pennsylvania Alaska New Maryland Vermont North Dakota Oregon Kentucky Massachusetts Minnesota Montana New Jersey Texas Virginia Washington Wisconsin Present Value of State GDP 3. Equal Massachusetts level: 159% of Current GDP 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 Division Leaders 100 0
California Alabama Mississippi Tennessee Louisiana New Mexico Arizona Hawaii West Virginia Nevada Florida Georgia South Carolina New York Arkansas Michigan USA Oregon Rhode Island Alaska Missouri Kentucky Illinois Maryland Pennsylvania Utah Oklahoma Delaware North Carolina Washington Nebraska Connecticut Iowa Virginia Idaho Indiana Maine Wisconsin Colorado Ohio Kansas Vermont Wyoming New Jersey New Hampshire Texas Montana South Dakota Minnesota Massachusetts North Dakota Present Value of State GDP 4. All students to basic: 145% of state GDP 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Mississippi Alabama Louisiana New Mexico Hawaii California Arkansas West Virginia Tennessee Nevada Georgia Florida Arizona Oklahoma Kentucky Rhode Island South Carolina USA Delaware North Carolina New York Illinois Michigan Missouri Maryland Texas Alaska Utah Virginia Pennsylvania Ohio Indiana Oregon Idaho Colorado Washington Wyoming Connecticut Nebraska Maine New Jersey Kansas Wisconsin South Dakota Iowa New Hampshire Vermont Montana Massachusetts North Dakota % of current GDP 5. Single v. All States Improve to Best 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Single-state improvement All states improve to top-performing state
International Challenge Unfortunately the challenge extends beyond U.S. borders and includes countries around the world. Other countries are producing students with both more education and better education.
Mississippi Alabama Louisiana New Mexico Hawaii California Arkansas West Virginia Tennessee Nevada Georgia Florida Arizona Oklahoma Kentucky Rhode Island South Carolina USA Delaware North Carolina New York Illinois Michigan Missouri Maryland Texas Alaska Utah Virginia Pennsylvania Ohio Indiana Oregon Idaho Colorado Washington Wyoming Connecticut Nebraska Maine New Jersey Kansas Wisconsin South Dakota Iowa New Hampshire Vermont Montana Massachusetts North Dakota Minnesota Present Value of State GDP 6. Equal Canadian level: 212% of current GDP 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0
Mississippi Alabama Louisiana New Mexico Hawaii California Arkansas West Virginia Tennessee Nevada Georgia Florida Arizona Oklahoma Kentucky Rhode Island South Carolina USA Delaware North Carolina New York Illinois Michigan Missouri Maryland Texas Alaska Utah Virginia Pennsylvania Ohio Indiana Oregon Idaho Colorado Washington Wyoming Connecticut Nebraska Maine New Jersey Kansas Wisconsin South Dakota Iowa New Hampshire Vermont Montana Massachusetts North Dakota Minnesota Present Value of State GDP 7. Equal Finnish level: 270% of current GDP 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0
Summary of Improvement: Connecticut Improvement Discounted reform billion $ s % current GDP % future GDP without reform 1. ¼ stnd deviation 696 262 5.6 2. Equal Minnesota 544 205 4.4 3. Equal division best (MA) 422 159 3.4 4. All at least basic 384 145 3.1 5. Single state to best (MN) 388 146 3.1 6. Equal Canada 563 212 4.5 7. Equal Finland 717 270 5.8
THE CHALLENGE
Improvement is Possible: Gains on NAEP 1992-2009 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 MD FL DE MA LA SC NC AR NJ MS HI KY VA GA OH CA TX CO PA NY AL USA WY TN MN NH RI ID IN MO AZ CT NM UT MI ND WV NE WI OK ME IA
Test-score gains between 1992 and 2011 No Simple Answers Improvement is possible but not easy 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% Increments in Expenditures and Gains in Student Achievement 1990-2008 FL NC CO CA AZ MI DE SC AR VA KY GA MS OH PA TX USA ID TN IN MO MN UT OK CT WI ND NE IA ME MD MA LA NJ HI NY AL NH WY RI NM WV 0.5% $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 Increase in Expenditures, 1990-2009 (2009 Dollars)*