Analysis: North Korea parades newest missiles [Content preview Subscribe to IHS Jane s Defence Weekly for full article] Amid rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula over Pyongyang's weapon development programmes, the North Korean regime recently paraded a number of new missiles and their associated systems to demonstrate its growing military capabilities. Markus Schiller and Neil Gibson report To mark the 105th anniversary of the birth of the country's late founding father and 'eternal president', Kim Il-sung, North Korea held a parade on 15 April in Pyongyang, displaying part of its military arsenal, including some of its newest missiles. While such parades are nothing new, the sheer number of previously unseen missiles and transport vehicles paraded at the event was unusual. Tracked anti-ship cruise missile TEL A number of tracked TEL vehicles carrying launch tubes consistent with the North Korean version of Russia's 3M24 anti-ship cruise missile were the first missile systems displayed at the parade. Tracked TELs carrying launch tubes consistent with the country's version of the Russian 3M24 anti-ship missile system were also displayed. (KCNA) 1693068 The 3M24-like missile, also referred to by the US as the KN-09, has previously been fired from North Korean missile patrol boats, but this is the first time it has been seen carried by a land-based vehicle. This suggests the missile has been adapted for coastal defence, similar to the Russian 3K60 Bal system, most likely to defend against local incursions and sea-borne invasion. The TEL seen carrying the missile seems to also be based on the 2P19 vehicle clone that North Korea uses as a TEL for R-17 'Scud'-type short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs). However, this time around the vehicle was shown with a modified cab and a raisable structure capable of carrying four launch tubes. This would have to be supported by command and detection vehicles, which were not seen at the parade. Pukkuksong-1 SLBM Page 1 of 7
For the first time mock-ups of the Pukkuksong-1 (also referred to as the Bukgeukseong-1, or by the US as the KN-11) submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) were shown at a North Korean parade. The missiles were paraded on the back of trailers that were towed along by trucks with soldiers sitting on the back of the trucks. A Pukkuksong-1 SLBM carried on the back of a trailer. (PA) 1693063 It is common procedure to show only mock-ups or inert training missiles at parades, as opposed to real operational missiles. That said, the recently displayed Pukkuksong-1s were of surprisingly high quality for North Korean parade mock-ups. They showed what appear to be at least four previously unseen small recessed lattice-like stabilising/control fins or vents located at the rear of the missiles. This might be Pyongyang's response to criticism of the poor quality of previous parade mock-ups and another way for the regime to show that its missile development programme is advancing. R-17 'Scud'-like missiles with MaRVs on tracked TELs The regime also paraded six tracked transporter erector launchers (TELs) carrying R-17 'Scud'- based SRBMs with warheads that featured small triangular planform fins at their base section: an indication that, after launch, these warheads are designed to separate from the main body of the missile and may be equipped with a terminal guidance system as part of a manoeuvrable re-entry vehicle (MaRV). The use of fins in a purely separating RV may be meant to improve the RV's stability during reentry and passage through the atmosphere. Using a separating RV would make the missiles harder to target during the exoatmospheric stage of their flight. Once in the atmosphere the two Page 2 of 7
are easily differentiated, but the smaller and faster RV is harder to hit. Nevertheless, US antiballistic missile (ABM) systems such as the later models in the Standard Missile (SM) family, the US Army's Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system and the Patriot Advanced Capability 3 (PAC-3) all have sophisticated targeting systems and seekers, meaning that they should have no problem countering them in the various stages of flight. North Korea paraded several tracked TELs carrying R-17 'Scud'-based missiles (KCNA) 1693069 If the RVs are guided, then the system that uses them will have improved accuracy compared to those using basic ballistic missiles or those fitted with separating RVs. In fact the finned RV unit shows some similarities with smaller designs seen in Iran such as that used for the Emad mediumrange ballistic missile (MRBM). Moreover, the shape of the warhead used by the North Koreans superficially resembles that of advanced MaRVs such as those used for the Pershing II or the Chinese DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile. By doing this North Korea appears to be sending a message that it is seeking to improve missile accuracy, perhaps even in an anti-ship role to possibly target US aircraft carriers. Judging by the missile's size and the visible fuel valves, the MaRV was mounted on an R-17 'Scud'-like missile body, as used in the Hwasong-5 and 6 SRBMs, thus indicating a potential range of up to 500 km depending on the size of the warhead. Although the RVs may be guided, when studied closely no pivot points can be seen at the roots of the small fins. The lack of pivot points may be just down to the fact that these are mock-ups, or that they are armed with separating RVs and not MaRVs. Pukkuksong-2 on tracked TEL During the parade the MaRV 'Scuds' were followed by six bigger tracked TELs carrying large missile containers. On 12 February a TEL of this type was used to launch a Pukkuksong-2, which was described by Pyongyang as a "surface-to-surface medium- to long-range ballistic missile" that was a "new type strategic weapon system" featuring a solid-propellant propulsion system. Page 3 of 7
A tracked domestically developed TEL carrying what appears to be the container for the Pukkuksong-2 'medium- to long-range' ballistic missile. (PA) 1693062 This missile has also been referred to by South Korean and Japanese media outlets as the KN-15. The Pukkuksong-2 appears to be the land-based but modified version of the Pukkuksong-1 SLBM. Musudan on TEL The North Koreans also displayed six familiar MAZ-547V-like TELs carrying Musudan IRBMs. (KCNA) 1693067 The North Koreans also displayed six familiar MAZ-547V-like TELs carrying Musudan (also known as the Hwasong-10) intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs). This type of missile has featured in North Korean parades since 2010. This time, however, there was a huge improvement Page 4 of 7
in the quality of the paraded systems compared to the grey-painted mock-ups that had been shown in previous years. The recently paraded missiles featured the primarily black colour scheme of the real Musudan missiles as well as their characteristic grid fins. New missile on TEL Four more of the MAZ-547V-like TELs followed, equipped with protective covers for the wheels (only seen before at a Musudan launch). These carried a previously unknown missile, also painted black. Preliminary analysis suggests that this missile has the Musudan diameter of 1.5 m, but is significantly longer. North Korea showed MAZ-547V-like TELs carrying a new missile assessed to be a stretched Musudan IRBM armed with a warhead from the KN-08 ICBM. (PA) 1693060 It was equipped with a characteristic warhead known from KN-08 (Hwasong-13) intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) mock-ups. The same warhead had been presented in March 2016 as being designed for a nuclear weapon load. The number of stages of the new missile is still unclear, but it seems to be a stretched version of the Musudan, perhaps in response to claims that the shorter Musudan was incapable of reaching the US base on Guam. Missile canisters on MELs The parade also featured missile containers mounted on four mobile erector-launchers (MELs), which are launch trailers pulled by separate trucks. This configuration is known to be used for the Chinese DF-31 ICBM as well as the DF-21 MRBM. Page 5 of 7
Pyongyang also paraded tractor trailer-based MELs housing an unknown missile (KCNA) 1693070 The canister design also showed some parallels with Chinese designs, with four little struts at the canister base, thus requiring a sturdy concrete pad for launch. Currently, no statement about the potential content of the canister is possible. Missile canisters on TELs The last missile system shown in the parade also featured launch canisters, but these were somewhat different to the previous ones and perhaps a little bigger (a fifth vehicle was seen to veer off to a side street just before passing Kim Jong-un's stand). With a length of more than 20 m, these containers are big enough to potentially house both liquidfuelled North Korean ICBM designs: the KN-08 and the KN-14. North Korea displayed large containers such as this one, carried on a TEL based on a Chinese WS51200 truck, which were assessed as being capable of housing a KN-08 or KN-14 ICBM. (PA) 1693059 Page 6 of 7
These missiles are presumed to use temperature-sensitive propellants, so protecting them with containers would make sense. For now, however, it is unclear what exactly, if anything, was inside these containers, which were carried by eight-axle TELs based on Chinese WS51200 trucks, the latter of which have carried the KN-08 and the KN-14 in previous parades. Canisters on display, not ICBMs North Korea's recent parade has shown that the country has two different TELs in its inventory that are based on a tracked vehicle chassis. While tracked vehicles offer better off-road performance under certain conditions, wheeled chassis offer increased range and higher speeds combined with impressive cross-country mobility. The TELs themselves do not offer any new capabilities. The launch canisters shown at the parade are not limited to housing solid-fuelled missiles. They also enable the safe use of temperature-sensitive propellants for missiles using liquid fuel such as nitrogen tetroxide (NTO). However, such containers are also a great tool to conceal missiles from prying eyes. In this context it is easy to forget that two large canisters were shown, not two new ICBMs. What these containers might actually contain one day is pure speculation for now. For the full version and more content: IHS Jane's Defence Industry and Markets Intelligence Centre This analysis is taken from IHS Jane s Defence Industry & Markets Intelligence Centre, which provides world-leading analysis of commercial, industrial and technological defence developments, budget and programme forecasts, and insight into new and emerging defence markets around the world. IHS defence industry and markets news and analysis is also available within IHS Jane s Defence Weekly. To learn more and to subscribe to IHS Jane s Defence Weekly online, offline or print visit http://magazines.ihs.com/. For advertising solutions contact the IHS Jane s Advertising team Page 7 of 7