Public Works Department Annapolis NSA Annapolis & U.S.N.A. Climate Change, Sea Level Rise & Environmental Considerations (May 16, 2017)
Topics - Agenda NSA Annapolis USNA Overview Installation Perspective Climate Change Anticipated Impacts Climate Change DOD & Navy Perspective NSA Annapolis - USNA Hurricane Isabel Historic Lesson Studies, Research, Current Situation & Outcomes Leveraging Science for Planning & Future Decision Making Environmental Considerations & Requirements 2 NAVFAC WASHINGTON PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT ANNAPOLIS
NSA Annapolis USNA - Overview Naval Support Activity (NSA) Annapolis is the installation supporting the U.S. Naval Academy (established in 1845) and is comprised of Upper Yard, Lower Yard (USNA) and North Severn. The City of Annapolis, Severn River and Chesapeake Bay form our boundaries and limit growth other than historical fill. USNA is unique in Navy shore facilities A military university is unique unto itself Working with other academies is helpful Historic facilities = maintenance challenge ($$) DOD budget restrictions causing impacts Aging infrastructure requires long-term costly Master Planning solutions flexible & agile NSA Annapolis has to comply with MDE and Federal environmental statutes Having partnerships with City of Annapolis, MD DNR, USACE & others is very valuable 3 NAVFAC WASHINGTON PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT ANNAPOLIS 3
Climate Change - Anticipated Impacts Global climate is projected to continue to change over this century and beyond. The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades depends primarily on the amount of heat-trapping gases emitted globally, and how sensitive the Earth s climate is to those emissions (National Climate Assessment (NCA), 2014). The following are expected to become increasingly disruptive throughout this century and beyond. Physical Increased Coastal Flooding Increased Coastal Erosion Persistent Drought (SW/MW) Increased Precipitation (NE/SE) Permafrost Melt Increased Wildfires Increased Landslides Operational & Logistical Increased Black Flag & Fire Hazard Days Increased Heating/Cooling Costs Increased Infrastructure Failure & Maintenance Costs Test and Training Days Reduced Access to Installation hampered Supply Chain Disruptions 4 NAVFAC WASHINGTON PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT ANNAPOLIS 4
DoD Climate Change Organization SERDP DoD Senior Sustainability Council (SSC) DUSD (I&E) - DoD SSO DoD Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program CNA DoD Center for Naval Analysis DoD Climate Change Adaptation Working Group (CCAWG) US Navy Task Force Climate Change (TFCC) OPNAV N2/N6/N46 Sustainability & Land Use Planning (NAVFAC HQ AM3) Senior Sustainability Council Originally established in response to EO 13514 The Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Installations and Environment (DUSD(I&E)) is the DoD s Senior Climate Official and reports progress to the SSC. DoD Climate Change Adaption WG Established as part of the 2012 DoD Agency Climate Change Roadmap All Service plus OSD offices Navy Task Force Climate Change (TFCC) Established by CNO in 2009 Initial focus on the Arctic Navy representatives to the CCAWG Navy security & operations focus Navy prepared for 21s century Others 5 NAVFAC WASHINGTON PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT ANNAPOLIS 5
DOD - Navy Roadmaps - Guidance - DOD & Dept. of the Navy have published reviews, roadmaps, and guidance documents (latest DOD Directive 4715.21) high level - DOD Directive 4715.21 establishes broad climate change policy 6 NAVFAC WASHINGTON PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT ANNAPOLIS
Navy Intent Local Partnerships OPNAVINST 11010.40A identifies climate change as a significant encroachment issue Installation Community Planning Liaison Officers are the local lead for this effort Navy encourages developing key climate change readiness partnerships Universities, research institutions, and analysis groups to ensure Navy efforts are informed by the best and latest science and technology initiatives Other government agencies to leverage expertise and experience, and to share costs NSA Annapolis Partnerships NAVFAC HQ Climate Change Sustainability Land Use Planning (AM3) NAVFAC Community Planning Liaison MIDLANT (Norfolk) U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Baltimore District) NOAA Office of Economic Development (JLUS) MD Department of Natural Resources Anne Arundel County City of Annapolis (Hazard Mitigation Committee) City of Annapolis (Public Works & Long Range Planning) 7 NAVFAC WASHINGTON PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT ANNAPOLIS
Local & Regional Studies - Planning 8 NAVFAC WASHINGTON PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT ANNAPOLIS
Additional Important Sea Level Studies 2007 IPCC Assessment Report 4 (AR4) 2008 MD Sea Level Rise Assessment 2011 USACE Guidance 2012 NRC Report on MSLR Processes, NOAA Sea Level Rise Scenarios for National Climate Assessment (NCA) 2013 IPCC AR5, MD Update of 2008 Assessment Updated USACE Guidance 2014 National Climate Assessment 2016 Interagency CARSWG (DOD installations) 9 NAVFAC WASHINGTON PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT ANNAPOLIS
Hurricane Isabel 2003 Historic Lessons U. S. Naval Academy Hurricane Isabel (2003): Damage estimates ranged from $150M - $200M (in 2003 $$) Hurricane Isabel was estimated at 7.8 feet (NAVD88) (1/100 year event) Demonstrates vulnerability to climate change and resulting events Demonstrates the need to plan for more frequent events over time USNA Lower Yard PRV = $1.6B currently train 4,000+ Midshipmen Flooding of USNA from Hurricane Isabel precipitation and storm surge, 19 Sep 2003 10 NAVFAC WASHINGTON PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT ANNAPOLIS
Current Situation NSA Annapolis Climate Change Sea Level Rise: USNA is experiencing sea level rise & land subsidence Dr. David Kriebel, USNA has verified in various oceanographic studies Visual and physical evidence collected by PWD Annapolis over at least two decades verifies these facts (increased service calls, reports) Dr. Richard Moss - April 2014 SERDP study verified climate change & SLR NSA Annapolis experiences about 41 nuisance flooding events annually Unfortunately, geographic location, elevation above sea level and SLR make Annapolis and USNA vulnerable to periodic coastal storms as well Nuisance flooding at Ramsay Road Brownson Road Isabel 2003 11 NAVFAC WASHINGTON PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT ANNAPOLIS
Nuisance & Minor Flooding - USNA Minor flooding along Ramsay Rd occurs when water levels reach 2.75 ft above Mean Lower Low Water. Nuisance flooding has increased in frequency in recent decades due to rising sea level. Sweet et al., 2017 (NOAA tech report) suggest that Mean Higher High Water in Annapolis could reach this level as early as 2025. 12 NAVFAC WASHINGTON PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT ANNAPOLIS 0750 EDT 5 Sep 2016
Storm Water Aged Infrastructure - Flooding Nimitz/Rickover - Parking Lot Non-storm Event Storm Water Backflow September 10, 2015 Rain Event 13 NAVFAC WASHINGTON PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT ANNAPOLIS
USNA Sea Level Rise Advisory Council VADM Walter E. Ted Carter Congressional Hearing: On July 17, 2015 four distinguished members of the U.S. House of Representatives held an important hearing on Climate Change and Sea Level Rise at Alumni, Hall, USNA. Annapolis was chosen by the Congressmen as it is literally on the front lines of this challenge. During the hearing, VADM Carter, Superintendent of the United States Naval Academy, announced the formation of the USNA Sea Level Rise Advisory Council which will take action on behalf of the Superintendent and USNA. 14 NAVFAC WASHINGTON PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT ANNAPOLIS
USNA Sea Level Rise Advisory Council Charter The USNA Sea Level Rise Advisory Council was constituted on July 8, 2015 by direction of the Superintendent of the United States Naval Academy. The Council will provide analysis, guidance, and recommendations to the Naval Academy Superintendent and Senior Leadership Team on issues surrounding sea level rise, coastal flooding and increased occurrences of severe weather events, with specific focus on the impacts to operational requirements of the Naval Academy. The focus area of the Council includes USNA lower yard, upper yard and the federal property on North Severn. Mission The mission of the Sea Level Rise Advisory Council is to develop a Sea Level Adaptation Plan for the Superintendent of the Naval Academy on matters pertaining to flooding due to sea level rise and severe weather events in the Annapolis area. The council will provide analysis of data, identification of vulnerabilities and prioritization of solution sets with the primary goal of minimizing negative impact to the daily operations of USNA and its support activities. This plan, developed in coordination with the City of Annapolis, the State of Maryland and key federal agencies, will suggest a path forward for planning for the impacts of sea level rise on the Naval Academy through 2100. 15 NAVFAC WASHINGTON PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT ANNAPOLIS
Incorporating Recent Science The National Academies of Sciences recently concluded that the National Science Foundation should make research on Antarctica s sea level implications its top priority, with a particular emphasis on West Antarctica. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energyenvironment/wp/2015/09/29/scientists-declare-anurgent-mission-study-west-antarctica-and-fast/ 16 NAVFAC WASHINGTON PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT ANNAPOLIS
SLR - Local Sources (2011-2014) Study Summary of Plausible GMSLR by 2100 Range 2011 USACE Guidance 1.6-4.9 ft /.5-1.5 m 2012 NOAA Guidance 0.7-6.6 ft /.2-1.8 m 2013 IPCC AR5 1.3-2.1 ft /.4-0.6 m 2014 National Climate Assessment Study 1.0-4.0 ft /.3-1.2 m Plausible Maryland SLR by 2100 MD Update Accounts for Ocean Dynamics, Ice, and VLM, USACE Update Accounts for Annapolis VLM Range 2013 Maryland Update 2.1-5.7 ft /.7-1.7 m 2014 USACE Guidance 1.2-5.6 ft /.4-1.7 m 17 NAVFAC WASHINGTON PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT ANNAPOLIS
SLR Global Perspective (2016-2017) Uncertainties in future Sea Level Rise (SLR) include climate forcings (cloud cover, aerosols, etc.), physical system response (Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers, etc.), and human behavior (future greenhouse gas emissions). We should deal with these uncertainties by considering a range of SLR scenarios and risk tolerances. Plausible SLR scenarios for Annapolis, relative to Mean Sea Level in 1992: Hall et al. (2016) Sweet et al. (2017) 2050 0.7 2.7 ft 0.6 3.6 ft 2100 1.4 8.3 ft 0.9 11.7 ft An average high tide adds 0.5 ft to these values. Under the extreme scenario, an average high tide will result in nuisance flooding at USNA just 20 years from now. Flooding due to storm surge will be exacerbated by SLR. Most scenarios considered by Hall et al. (2016) show Hurricane Isabel-like water levels becoming a 1 in 20 year event by 2065 and a 1 in 5 year event by the end of the century. These projections are based on historical storm statistics, and assume no changes in storm frequency or intensity. Provided by CAPT Emil Petruncio USNA Oceanography Department 18 NAVFAC WASHINGTON PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT ANNAPOLIS
Relative Sea Level Rise Scenarios for Annapolis from Hall et al. (2016) and Sweet et al. (2017) with Annapolis Monthly Mean Sea Level Data for 1930-2016 Sea Level Relative to MSL in 2000 (ft) 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Extreme (2.5m) High (2.0m) Intermediate High (1.5m) Intermediate (1.0m) Intermediate Low (0.5m) Low (0.3m) High Emission Scenario with Max Contribution from Ice Sheets; Low Probability, High Consequences Moderate to High Emissions Low Emissions; Requires Major Carbon Cuts and Removal The six Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) scenarios in Sweet et al., 2017, identified by the height in meters in 2100 relative to MSL in 2000, span the range of scientifically plausible sea level rise scenarios. The shaded regions represent a central 80% probability range for each scenario. The five scenarios described in Hall et al., 2016 correspond to GMSL of 2.0m, 1.5m, 1.0m, 0.5m, and 0.2m relative to MSL in 1992, and are indicated by thick black lines. 0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100-1 Year Graphic by E.T. Petruncio 19 NAVFAC WASHINGTON PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT ANNAPOLIS
Environmental Considerations As mentioned previously, NSA Annapolis has to comply with MDE and federal environmental statutes. The installation is much like a small municipality. Reference storm water we are a Phase II MS4 permit. New MDE MS4 permit is imminent (2017-2018) Requires 20% retrofit for all untreated impervious surfaces across the installation (5 years to comply) For NSA Annapolis this equals 40 acres (EPA & MDE) Working ahead of requirement with several projects NAVFAC Environmental has funded several designs and several repair/renovation projects to eliminate impervious surfaces and capture runoff Possum Point Shoreline Restoration Perry Center Storm Water project Two large storm water projects (Bancroft Water Shed & Stribling Walk Water Shed) have been designed by WBCM that if implemented would repair aging infrastructure and exceed MS4 requirements 20 NAVFAC WASHINGTON PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT ANNAPOLIS 20
Possum Point Shoreline Restoration The Possum Point shoreline restoration Cooperative Agreement was awarded on Sept. 21 st, 2015 by NAVFAC Washington Environmental ($1M) The purpose was to restore 1,517 linear feet of shoreline at NSA Annapolis The restoration design included stone revetment along the eastern shoreline where wave energy potential is high and a living shoreline along the western shoreline that features tidal marsh Objectives were to provide erosion control, water quality benefits and habitat enhancement This shoreline restoration benefits water quality for storm water pollutant load reductions by eliminating 113.8 pounds of nitrogen, 103.2 pounds of phosphorus and 207,829 pounds of sediment from entering the Chesapeake Bay each year 21 NAVFAC WASHINGTON PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT ANNAPOLIS
Mill Creek Shoreline Erosion Before After 22 NAVFAC WASHINGTON PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT ANNAPOLIS
Mill Creek Shoreline Erosion Living Shoreline Before During After 23 NAVFAC WASHINGTON PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT ANNAPOLIS
Possum Point Shoreline Erosion Before After 24 NAVFAC WASHINGTON PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT ANNAPOLIS
Perry Center Storm Water Project The Perry Center project was awarded in June, 2013 by NAVFAC Washington Environmental ($2.2M) The purpose was to reduce impervious surfaces, improve storm water management in our industrial center, test rainfall retention, improve outfalls, reduce erosion, & add BMP s to comply with MDE MS 4 permit (FY 2017) (gained 5.7 acres of credit) A coastal plan outfall was created to slow flow and cool water prior to entering College Creek A 25,000 gallon tanking system with controlled transfer pump was installed under the parking lot with the capability to utilize a bio-retention pond for cycling of storm water instead of direct discharge the pump is net zero powered by a solar panel system back-feeding to Bldg. #571 at Perry Center which can make use of the continuous available power This project provided a test bed of concepts that are in design for a very large storm water management system on the Lower Yard at USNA that repairs aged infrastructure, mitigates flooding and exceeds MDE MS 4 permit requirements 25 NAVFAC WASHINGTON PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT ANNAPOLIS
Perry Center Storm Water Project Impervious surface pavement and Geo-grid gravel combine to capture some storm water run-off 26 NAVFAC WASHINGTON PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT ANNAPOLIS
Perry Center Storm Water Project 25,000 buried tanking system with controlled transfer pump utilizes bio-retention pond for storm water. Roof mounted PV array powers the pump and allows building to be net zero. 27 NAVFAC WASHINGTON PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT ANNAPOLIS
Perry Center Storm Water Project Coastal plain outfall slows the flow and pools at different stages cool the water prior to discharge into College Creek. Rain garden BMP s are incorporated for further storm water credit. 28 NAVFAC WASHINGTON PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT ANNAPOLIS
Master Planning Bringing it All Together NSA Annapolis, like many DOD installations has to address numerous challenges and requirements, while remaining focused on the mission of providing 1,000 trained officers to the Navy and Marine Corps annually. We have to proactively Master Plan for the future with one foot in the present where budgets are tight, but with the other foot reaching towards coastal uncertainty and requirements that at times seem nearly impossible to manage, coordinate and fund. To say the next 25 years will be interesting is an understatement Thank you!! 29 NAVFAC WASHINGTON PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT ANNAPOLIS 29