Nuclear Physics 7 Current Issues
How close were we to nuclear weapons use? Examples (not all) Korean war (1950-1953) Eisenhower administration considers nuclear weapons to end stalemate Indochina war (1946-1954) US consider nuclear weapons to prevent French defeat by Vietminh (April/May 1954) US considers use if Chinese intervene Berlin Crisis (1961) Kennedy administration reviews plan for nuclear use Cuban missile crisis (1962) Kennedy administration pledges to use nuclear weapons against USSR if any Cuban-based missile is launched Yom Kippur/Ramadan war (1973) Israel: Probable consideration after Israeli counterattack initially failed
Moral & ethical issues http://www.nuclearfiles.org/menu///library/biographies/bio_rotblat-joseph.htm http://www.nuclearfiles.org/menu/key-issues/ethics/issues/scientific/rotblat_ethical-dimensions-deterrence.htm
New Issues Rise of WMD: nuclear + chemical + biological Rise of terrorism Possibility of New Nuclear Age - close connection of peaceful nuclear use & proliferation Rising importance of regional power struggles
Nuclear Proliferation Inevitable? Pessimist: increases risk of war - More nuclear countries -> more risk Optimist: stabilizes against war - Example: Cold War Government stability, control issues - Example: Pakistan Regional Arms Races History of Proliferation
History of Proliferation 1945: Nuclear Age begins; US is sole superpower 1949: USSR 1952: UK 1960: France 1969: China 1974: India (has no first use policy) 1998: Pakistan
Nuclear Status Map Five "nuclear weapons states" from the NPT Other known nuclear powers States formerly possessing nuclear weapons States suspected of being in the process of developing nuclear weapons and/or nuclear programs States which at one point had nuclear weapons and/or nuclear weapons research programs States that claim to possess nuclear weapons
World Nuclear Arsenal http://www.cdi.org/nuclear/database/nukestab.html http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_weapons_and_global_security/ nuclear_weapons/technical_issues/worldwide-nuclear-arsenals.html
Nonproliferation Treaty Signed in 1957-58 by more than a 100 countries Control over the processing of spent fuel rods by IAEA Facts about the nuclear treaty from which North Korea withdrew 1/10/03: - Countries that have nuclear weapons will not help other countries obtain or develop them. Non-weapon states agree not to try to get nuclear arms. - Countries with nuclear weapons will negotiate for nuclear disarmament. - Countries without nuclear weapons will allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to oversee their nuclear facilities. - Countries will exchange peaceful nuclear technology. - Entered into force in 1970; signed by 187 countries. Extended indefinitely in 1995. - India, Pakistan, Israel and Cuba are the only countries that haven't signed on. Cuba is a member of a treaty establishing a nuclear-free zone in Latin America.
Regional Nuclear Issues Proliferation Middle East: Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Israel Asia: China, India, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, Japan, Taiwan
Responses to Proliferation Threat Import/Export Controls Incentives Sanctions Pre-emptive military action
Import/Export Controls ITAR: International Traffic in Arms Regulation regulates both products and technology Examples: nuclear, encryption, satellites, high performance computing Arms Export Control Act: requires nations receiving arms to use them for self-defense
Incentives General diplomatic and economic goodwill Support for peaceful nuclear technology Nuclear umbrella NATO Disincentive: high cost of nuclear technology
Sanctions Tariffs Administrative barriers Embargoes
Pre-emptive Military Action Osirak (also Osiraq) 40 MW light water research reactor built in 1977 by Iraq 11 miles south of Baghdad French technology; used HEU Iranian attack in 1980 fails; crippled in 1981 by an Israeli pre-emptive attack Destroyed in 1991 during 1st Gulf war President Bush: All options are on the table.
1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Currently 189 signatories Recognizes 5 declared Nuclear Weapons States (NWS): China, France, UK, US, USSR Notable non-signatories: India, Israel, and Pakistan North Korea signed, but withdrew in January 2003 and demonstrated a nuclear capability October 9th, 2006
Role of IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency Created by UN in 1957 Regularly inspects nuclear sites Audits material accountability Checks physical security Monitors material itself: seals, surveilance, spot checks
Non-Proliferation Successes 60ʼs: W. Germany and Japan abandon nuclear programs 70ʼs: S. Korea gives up covert program at US insistence 80ʼs: Taiwan is induced by US to abandon secret nuclear initiative 1991: Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine are born nuclear. They hand over weapons to Russia, and sign NPT 2003: Libya abandons program
Pakistan Program launched after loss of E. Paskistan in 1971 war with India Crucial role of Abdul Qadeer Khan Father of Pakistani nuclear program Obtained access to enrichment technology in Holland during the 70ʼs 2004: confesses to involvement in clandestine network providing nuclear technology from Pakistan to Libya and North Korea Pardoned in 2004 by President of Pakistan 1998 weapons test
North Korea Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center: since 1986, enough for about 1 bomb per year. Program halted by 1994 Agreed Framework 1997: Pakistan trades nuclear technology for missle technology Monday, October 9, 2006 the United States Geological Survey (USGS) detected a magnitude 4.2 earthquake event 70 km (45 miles) North of Kimchaek, North Korea indicating a successful nuclear test. The North Korean government announced shortly afterward that they had completed a successful underground test of a nuclear fission device.
Iran Secretly began constructing enrichment facilities in 2001, installing 200 centrifuges in 2002 and 2003. P-1 centrifuge design from A.Q. Khan. October 2003: IAEA places seals on program at 3 sites. January 2006: Iran removes seals and begins enrichment at Natanz in February. Currently 3000 centrifuges, with installation of 6000 more in progress. Official US estimates predict that Iran could have nuclear weapons by 2010-2015. Sufficient Uranium hexafluoride stock for perhaps 20 fission weapons