Precision Strike For the Joint Fight Brigadier General James Hunt Deputy Director Force Application, J-8, The Joint Staff 1
Agenda Proficiency Sufficiency Way Ahead 2
J O F S I N T O F S Proficiency and Sufficiency Two Munitions Processes Guidance Assessment and Analysis Validation Decision and Action NSS NMS Joint Operating Concepts CONOPS Illustrative and Planning OPLANS Scenarios Task Analyses Joint Vision Joint Operations Concepts Studies and Wargames support task analyses and capability assessments Overlay what we have with what we need Gap Analysis Risk Assessment Roadmaps JCIDS PPBS JROC (JCIDS) Acquisition Capability Assessments Architectures Functional Concepts SECRET C H I E T A F F CY03 CY04 Jan Apr May Jul Jun Aug Sep Nov Oct Dec Mar Jun Feb Apr May Jul OSD(P) OSD(P) DPG CPG 1 Apr 1 May AT&L Guidance 15 May Policy/AT+L guidance DIA Threat Reports 1 July DIA/CoComs/J-8 (Target lists) CoCom Phased Threat Dist 15 Sept (near yr) J-8 Phased Threat Dist 15 Oct (out yr) Near Year Out Year Services (M unition rqmts) Services Muns Rqmts 15 Mar Services Risk Assessment 15 May DoD MRP Services (Risk assessment) SECRET Aug Services Risk Assessment POM+10 days 3 WHAT DO WE BUY? JCIDS Purpose Driver HOW MUCH OF EACH DO WE BUY? PPBES CJCSI 3170.1E Implementing Doc DoDI 3000.4 May 2005 Date Implemented October 2003 Capability Based Basis Scenario Based 3
PROFICIENCY 4
Threat vs Capability Based Planning Requirements Generation System (RGS)- ~30 years of experiences Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System (JCIDS)- 3 years old Partially Interoperable Capabilities Late Integration Strategic Direction Joint Warfighting Concept Development Services Build Systems Joint Experimentation, Assessment & Analysis, Validation, Selection of Solutions Service Experimentation, Assessment & Analysis, Validation, Selection of Solutions COCOMs, Services Unique Strategic Visions Service Unique Strategic Visions and Requirements Joint Capabilities 5
How It Works CBA CBA on Major Combat Operations ICD Lethal capability in adverse weather CDD CDD GPS / INS kit Smaller weapon for greater loadout capability CPD CPD CPD CPD CPD CPD JDAM tail kits SDB I and SDB II 6
CBP Lessons Learned Capabilities Based Assessments take a long time New Users Guide helps focus efforts and set terms of reference Focus efforts toward a solution fight the urge to solve world hunger Prioritization of capabilities is the goal Focus JROC attention on major issues Develop department-wide strategy to improve combat capability Key Performance Parameters (KPPs) Criteria for selection Cost drivers for each KPPs under review 7
Success Stories Joint Undersea Superiority First Initial Capabilities Document (ICD) on Mine Countermeasures approved. Capabilities Development Document in work Additional ICD for Anti-Submarine Warfare in work Global Strike Raid Scenario CBA FNA complete FSA in work; coordinating with Prompt Global Strike and other efforts Test case for combined Functional Needs Analysis and Analysis of Alternatives (Evaluation of Alternatives) Sea-basing and JC2 CBAs ongoing 148 JCIDS Force Application documents and actions in the past year; up from the previous year 94 Force Application issues presented to JROC for decision in the past year 22 8
Success Stories - JETS Joint Effects Targeting System (JETS) is a single joint targeting system designed to replace 20+ stove-piped and non-interoperable targeting systems. Joint Integrated Product Team Stove-piped efforts addressed similar issues. Nearly identical capability requirements between Services Found 90% commonality in requirements, 10% SOCOM specific JCIDS CBA resulted in approved ICD. Single Joint solution found to be best alternative. Army proposed sponsor, awaiting AT&L approval 9
SUFFICIENCY 10
Munitions Requirement Process DIA Threat Report Maneuver Forces Air Maritime IADS Infrastructure Strategic Total Munitions Requirement Combat Requirement Strategic Readiness Requirement Current Operations/Forward Presence Requirement Test & Training Requirement CoCOM J8 Service Processes Phased Threat Distribution Allies SOCOM USMC (Air& Ground) USA USN USAF Phase I: w% Phase II: x% NNOR (N/MC) NCAA (AF) QWARRM (A) Phase III: y% Phase IV: z% Services 11
Factors Impacting Requirements Target Set - Main Driver Defined by DIA - Apportioned by Combatant Commander Aimpoints identified by Theater Reps at Theater Conf Munitions Inventories and Aircraft Integration Analysis of both Constrained and Unconstrained Inventories Aircraft Integration based on Current POM Delivery Conditions - Weather, standoff, threats etc. Theater Planner Inputs Priority of Target Attacks Aircraft - Target Mission assignments Weapon - Target assignments Model Uses All the Above to Identify the Most Effective Aircraft - Target - Weapon Combinations for each scenario Maximizes Destruction while Minimizing Losses 12
NCAA A/G Methodology Combat Requirements Campaign Model: Combat Forces Assessment Model (CFAM) Problem: Choose available acft/wpn/profile/target options (WEAPS) to... Objective: Destroy the target set in min time with min attrition Force Structure (JSCP) Sortie Rates (WMP) Theater Target Set Sortie Effectiveness (WEAPS) Weapon Inventories Historical Weather (by theater) CFAM Weapons requirements Warfight duration Friendly losses Sorties Flown Warfighter Inputs 13
How to answer the question: If I have $50M to spend on munitions, where is it best spent? Munitions Purchasing Optimization Model
How to look into the Crystal Ball Specify Future Problem: Ignores other possible futures Specify Future Specify Future Specify Future Single Future Approach Determine Investments (Given That future) Multiple Scenario Approach (Existing MRP) Determine Investments (Given That future) Determine Investments (Given That future) Determine Investments (Given That future) Problem: 1) Gives a range of results, none of which know about other possible futures 2) May not even suggest the most robust solution Specify Future Specify Future Specify Future Hedge Approach Specify Investment That Does Best Against All Futures Benefit: Provides a robust solution as well as estimated performance against each future 15
Objective & Assumptions Objective: Determine the optimal munitions purchase at varying budget levels for all MCOs Use approved Analytic Agenda scenarios Assumptions: Futures defined by uncertainty over: Weather conditions Percentages of moving targets Ratio of platforms available (bomber, tactical, ground, and maritime) Weapons not yet in production have an associated one-time fixed cost (RDT&E + NRE) Model uses projected Service inventories for FY07 as the current available inventory 16
MPO Model Maximizes the value of expected kills across all scenarios Value is a weighted combination of PK, platform survivability (range), and collateral damage Higher load-out weapons are preferred Model Approach Weapon will only be used if it has a target PK 0.4 All targets are currently considered with equal priority (no order of battle) No low level (sub 1500 ) deliveries currently allowed for tactical aircraft 17
Notional Results Example Total Weapons Purchased $10 B $12 B $14 B $16 B $18 B $20 B $22 B $24 B $26 B $28 B $30 B $32 B $34 B $36 B $38 B Chart Chart shows shows the the optimal optimal weapons weapons purchased purchased at at each each budget budget level. level. Each Each color color represents represents a a different different weapons weapons capability. capability. Increased Increased spending spending will will either either buy buy additional additional weapons weapons or or will will improve improve the the value value (standoff, (standoff, collateral collateral damage, damage, etc.) etc.) of of the the kills kills obtained. obtained. 18
MRP Vision for the Future Strategy is still the driving force, but Challenge is determining the right mix: Surge Capability Shelf life Demil/Surveillance Risk/Budget Industrial base Weapons must be agile across scenarios Discipline/Rigor accomplished by aligning with the analytic agenda 19
Way Ahead Proficiency JCIDS Process is Evolving Reducing Cycle Time JUSS CBA 2 Years Biometric Quick-look 3 weeks CBA standards are clearer, but still being refined Improving gap analysis for Joint capabilities GOAL: Prioritization of Joint Capabilities 20
Way Ahead Sufficiency MRP vastly improved in the past two years COCOMs, Services, Joint Staff, and OSD involved GOAL: ID Requirements (Qty); Balance Acceptable Operational Risk with the Industrial Base 21
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