Courtesy of Benjamin Brooks, Whitney Raas, and Lonn Waters. Used with permission. Image removed due to copyright reasons. Resizing for Effect Presented by Benjamin M Brooks Whitney Raas Lonn Waters 1
US Grand Strategy - Very Selective Engagement Secure American Vital Interests Deter Strategic Competitors Develop and Reinforce Alliance Cooperation Encourage Regional Partnerships Humanitarian Missions 9 December 2004 2
Threats to US Security Images removed due to copyright reasons. Chinese Forces as of 2005 Navy -67 Submarines -24 Destroyers -273 Other Attack Vessels Air Force -120 bombers -1400 fighters 9 Decem ber 2004 3
Worldwide Threats China Terrorism North Korea Middle East WMD Proliferation 9 December 2004 4
US Army - Lean and Lethal 1 Major Theater War 8 Division Equivalents (~275,000) 1 Small Regional Contingency (Korea) 2 Division Equivalent (~70,000) Humanitarian and Peacekeeping Missions 1 Division Equivalent (~35,000) 9 December 2004 5
Results of Resizing Cuts Current End Strength Army Active Duty 82,503 485,315 402,812 Army Reserve 26,850 179,000 152,150 Army Guard 70,000 350,000 280,000 9 December 2004 6
Image removed due to copyright reasons. ARMY Cuts and Savings per Year Active Duty (13 Brigades, 1 Corp Headquarters) ~ $10B Reserve (8 Brigades) ~ $800M National Guard (2 Divisions) ~ $800M 12 Guard Field Artillery Brigades ~ $1.2 Future Combat System $3B MILCON Savings ~$280M 9 December 2004 7
Army Restructuring 82 nd, 101 st, 10 Mountain (reduced by 3 brigades each and reconsolidated into light and airborne brigade teams with organic heavy lift CH-47s) Cut I Corp Headquarters Reassign subordinate units to V Corp Cut 3 rd Infantry Division (Fort Stewart) 9 December 2004 8
6 Month Response Time Identify Threat Determine Response Spin-up Units (Train and Equip) Backstop for deployed units 9 December 2004 9
Image removed due to copyright reasons. Army Modernization Move to Brigade Combat Teams instead of Divisions Accelerate Stryker Acquisition and Deployment (Approp Title 2033) $975M per year, per Unit Cost $3.2M Increase RDTE and Initial Procurement for Communications Upgrades and Sensors (Approp Title 2035) $1B per year redirected from FCS 9 December 2004 10
Army Procurement Refit and Upgrade Abrams and Bradleys $700M (Approp Title 2033) Buy Patriot PAC-3 for deployment in Japan and Taiwan (65 per year at 4.5M per) $300M (Approp Title 2032) Image removed due to copyright reasons. 9 December 2004 11
Overseas Army Basing Europe Halve force Rotate 6 BCTs ~$76M/year savings Iraq 25,000 permanent troops ~$2550M/year cost Korea Land Partnership Plan --- 28,000 permanent troops -- no $ change 9 December 2004 12
Army Base Realignment in Korea Korea - Land Partnership Plan (LPP) Close Outdated Facilities Concentrate Troops at Camp Humphreys and Osan Airfield Mitigate Land Tensions with South Koreans (esp. around Seoul) Reduced Costs of Base Maintenance and Travel Remove forward-deployed units from DPRK artillery Range Koreans pay for 85% Net Cost ~ $0.00 9 December 2004 13
Future Army Budgets 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 F2007 FYDP Army Total Restructured Army Budget 103.9 105.3 105.3 107.2 109.2 90.85 92.3 92.3 94.2 96.2 9 December 2004 14
Effective Cuts on 2007 Budget 2007 FYDP Cuts/ Savings 2007 Final Proc. 12.96 1.975 14.935 RDT&E 10.187-2 8.187 O&S 76.524-12.73 63.794 MilCon 2.724-0.28 2.444 Other 1.49 0 1.49 Total 103.885-13.035 90.85 9 December 2004 15
Air Superiority Images removed due to copyright reasons. 9 December 2004 16
Image removed due to copyright reasons. Strategy Effects on the Air Force Non-intervention policy Short-range air force Undisputed US control of the air No pressing need for extensive expenditures on advanced air capabilities Heavier, smaller Army Large, but fewer, transport aircraft 9 December 2004 17
AF O&S and Military Construction Reduce Active and Reserve forces by 10% Reduce Air National Guard by 20% Suspend 100% of pilot bonus Total Savings of $22.7B over five years 9 December 2004 18
RDT&E Reduce RDT&E for JSF by $200M/year Fund Space-Based Radar at $100M/year Total Savings of $3.73B over five years 9 December 2004 19
Procurement: Airlift Image removed due to copyright reasons. Cancel scheduled buy of 13 C-17s in 2007 (167/180) Reduce C-130J purchases (81/111) Push back C-5 RERP procurement (10/50) Reduce number of CV-22s (10/15) Total Savings of $10.9B over five years 9 December 2004 20
Procurement: F-22F Prior Years FY07 FY08 FY08 FY10 FY11 Total Original Schedule 118 32 32 32 31 28 217 Adjusted Schedule 118 0 0 0 0 0 118 No need for the F-22 No hostile country can challenge US fighter planes SLEP of F-15s reduces need to procure new planes 9 December 2004 21
Procurement: Joint Strike Fighter Original Schedule Adjusted Schedule Prior Years 0 0 FY07 10 0 FY0 8 12 10 Delay in procurement offset by SLEP F-15, previous F-22 buys 0 FY08 25 0 FY10 30 FY11 60 20 Total 137 30 Total Savings in procurement of $37B over five years 9 December 2004 22
Total Air Force Savings by Program Millions of Dollars (FY05) 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 Fiscal Year SBR CV-22 C-5 C-130J C-17 JSF F-22 Milcon O&S 9 December 2004 23
Total AF Savings by Budget Authority Savings in Millions (FY05) 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 MilCon O&S RDT&E Procurement 0 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 Fiscal Year 9 December 2004 24
Missile Defense Fund RDT&E at $1 B per year Total Savings of $47.6B over five years Background image removed due to copyright reasons. 9 December 2004 25
Sea Power Background image removed due to copyright reasons. 9 December 2004 26
Methodology Decided how VSE would affect USN Defined the threat China posed Looked for savings only in the difference between projected budget and resized force Saved by cutting ships and their crews Redefined force projection 9 December 2004 27
VSE Effects on US Navy and Marines Naval Forces Should be Resized Force projection limited to areas of high threat and/or interest only Keep Marines and Amphibious Ships as is Resizing of Army suggests need for ground forces Resizing of Airlift suggests need for high amounts of Sealift 9 December 2004 28
Sizing up the Chinese Navy Large Fleet ~280 ships Strengths ~ 60 Submarines ~ 90 Missile Ships Weaknesses Our ships are much more advanced They have very little to no Naval Air Power Our Fleet will be able to deter them because of the force multipliers obtained by our technology and Naval Air 9 December 2004 29
Force Reductions Effective FY2007 Carriers Approp 1453N, 1804N Decommission USS JFK, Kitty Hawk, and Enterprise Savings in Millions of FY05$ Mil Pers O&M Total 2007 1380 690 2070 2008 1380 690 2070 2009 812 406 1218 2010 812 406 1218 2011 812 406 1218 9 December 2004 30
Force Reductions Effective FY2007 Submarines Approp 1453N, 1804N Resized number of LA Class from 51 to 38 Resized number of Ohio Class SSBNs from 14 to 9 Savings in Millions of FY05$ Mil Pers O&M Total 2007 251.7 125.85 377.55 2008 251.7 125.85 377.55 2009 251.7 125.85 377.55 2010 251.7 125.8 377.55 2011 278.5 139.25 417.75 9 December 2004 31
Force Reductions Effective FY2007 Destroyers Approp 1453N, 1804N Resized number of Arleigh Burke Class from 55 to 45 Decommissioned all 5 Spruance Class Savings in Millions of FY05$ 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Mil Pers 323 323 323 323 323 O&M 161.5 161.5 161.5 161.5 161.5 Total 484.5 484.5 484.5 484.5 484.5 9 December 2004 32
Force Reductions Effective FY2007 Frigates Approp 1453N, 1804N Resized number of Frigates form 25 to 20 Savings in Millions of FY05$ 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Mil Pers 107.5 107.5 107.5 107.5 107.5 O&M 53.75 53.75 53.75 53.75 53.75 Total 161.25 161.25 161.25 161.25 161.25 9 December 2004 33
Force Reductions Effective FY2007 Marines Approp 1105N, 1106N Reduced 3000 enlisted Marines across the service Savings in Millions of FY05$ 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Mil Pers 600 600 600 600 600 O&M 300 300 300 300 300 Total 900 900 900 900 900 9 December 2004 34
Procurement Changes Submarines Approp 1611N Virginia Class 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total Original 1 1 2 2 2 8 Reduced 1 1 0 2 1 5 9 December 2004 35
Procurement Changes Littoral Combat Ship(LCS) Approp 1611N LCS 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total Original 1 3 6 5 5 20 Reduced 1 1 1 0 0 3 9 December 2004 36
Procurement Changes DDX Approp 1611N DDX 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total Original 2 2 3 2 2 11 Reduced 1 1 1 1 1 5 9 December 2004 37
Procurement Changes Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) Approp 1506N JSF 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total Original 2 16 32 28 32 110 Reduced 2 13 20 20 20 75 9 December 2004 38
Total Savings In Millions of FY05$ 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 O&S 3993.3 3993.3 3205.8 3234.8 3471.75 Proc 1400 1610 8440 1960 4640 Total 5393.3 5603.3 11645.8 5294.8 8111.75 9 December 2004 39
Redefining Force Projection All bases will remain Carriers will work off of a resized Fast Response Plan Carrier deployments will be limited in the Atlantic, and focused on the Mediterranean and Pacific More attack submarines will be deployed off the Taiwanese East Coast 9 December 2004 40
9 December 2004 Total Total DoD DoD Savings Savings 200.07 42.67 37.37 44.55 36.07 39.41 Total -12.75-2.55-2.55-2.55-2.55-2.55 Iraq 0.38 0.076 0.076 0.076 0.076 0.076 Basing 47.613 12.5 11 7.606 7.411 9.096 Defense Wide 36.05 8.11 5.29 11.65 5.60 5.39 Navy 63.60 11.50 10.51 14.76 12.49 14.36 AF 65.175 13.035 13.035 13.035 13.035 13.035 Army FY07 FY11 FY11 FY10 FY09 FY08 FY07 41
Conclusions Resizing the military was easy. We don t understand why it hasn t been done yet. Seriously. 9 December 2004 42
Acknowledgements We would like to thank: Prof. Cindy Williams All Military Fellows 9 December 2004 43
References: Assistant Secretary of the Army for Financial Management and Comptroller - ASA (FM&C) - Current Year's Army Budget Materials. Available at: http://www.asafm.army.mil/budget/fybm/fybm.asp. Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Long-Term Implications of Current Defense Plans: Detailed Update for Fiscal Year 2005 (September 2004), Figures 3-20, 3-24, 3-30. Available at: http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=5863&sequence=0. 9 December 2004 44
Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Options for Changing the Army s Overseas Basing. May 2004. Available at: http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=5415&sequence=0. Cote, Owen. Buying...From the Sea : A Defense Budget for a Maritime Strategy. In Holding the Line: U.S. Defense Alternatives for the Early 21st Century, 141-180. Cambridge, Mass. and London: MIT Press, 2001. Department of the Air Force. Fiscal Year 2005 Budget Estimates: Research, Development, Test & Evaluation (RDT&E) Vol. 2 (February 2004). Available at: http://www.defenselink.mil/comptroller/defbudget/fy2005/#. 9 December 2004 45
GlobalSecurity.org: U.S. Army. Available at: http://globalsecurity.org/military/agency/army/ Mikos, Lt. Col. Mike. Interview with author (Lonn Waters). Office of the Secretary of Defense. Budget Materials (DOD Comptrollers Procurement Programs P-1). Available at: http://www.dod.mil/comptroller/defbudget/fy2005/fy2005_p1.xls. Quinlivan, James. Flexible Ground Forces. In Holding the Line: U.S. Defense Alternatives for the Early 21st Century, 228. Cambridge, Mass. and London: MIT Press, 2001. 9 December 2004 46