Capturing Opportunities for Innovation in Asia s Metropolitan Regions Edward Leman President, Chreod Ltd. 27 March 2013 1
Russian Federation Indonesia India 6.8 11.1 China 17.8 27.9 Brazil Euro area (15 United States 11.7 16.5 17.8 22.5 United Kingdom Korea Japan Germany France Canada 1.9 1.6 4.2 Source: OECD (2013) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 % of World's GDP 2030 2012 Share of World s Gross Domestic Product (2012, 2030)
Russian Federation 73.9 Indonesia 150.5 India China 208.3 220.7 Brazil 106.7 Euro area (15 countries) 40.6 United States United Kingdom Korea 45.9 55.8 60.8 Japan Germany 25.1 26.0 Source: OECD (2013) France Canada 48.4 47.9 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 % change in GDP, 2012-2030 India s and China s GDP will more than quadruple by 2030
Asia s economic growth will not happen in the countryside 4
Cities will be where Asian economies grow 5
Urbanizing Asia, 2012 6
Metropolitan Regions are key drivers of Asia s economic growth. Source: Chreod Ltd. Generalized Structure of Metropolitan Regions 7
Pearl River Delta: urban builtup area 8
182 of World s 454 metropolitan regions are in Asia (41%) Source: Chreod Global Metropolitan Database Asia s Metropolitan Regions (> 1 mn), 2010 9
Source: Chreod Global Metropolitan Database Population of Asia s Metropolitan Regions
North America 57 52 TOTAL ASIA 148 182 East Asia 82 72 Southeast Asia 21 17 South Asia 43 60 Central Asia 19 16 Source: Chreod Global Metropolitan Database 0 50 100 150 200 number of Metropolitan Regions 2010 2000 Number of Asia s Metropolitan Regions
Tokyo Seoul Shanghai Mumbai Sao Paulo Mexico City New York-Newark Beijing Delhi Hongkong-Shenzhen Kolkota Dhaka Guangzhou-Foshan Chengdu Buenos Aires Karachi Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana Changsha Cairo London Rio de Janeiro Chongqing Istanbul Metro Manila Osaka-Kobe Wuhan Paris Xian Jakarta (DKI) Lagos Moscow Hangzhou Nanjing Shantou Xiamen Chicago Shenyang Kinshasa Jinan Tianjin Hefei Shijiazhuang Dongguan Lima Santa Fé de Bogotá Tehran Changchun Fuzhou, Fujian Bangalore Ho Chi Minh City population millions 0 10 20 30 40 35 of the world s largest metropolitan regions are in Asia; 21 are in China Source: Chreod Global Metropolitan Database World s Most Populous Metropolitan Regions, 2010
13 of the world s largest metropolitan economies in 2020 will be in Asia; 19 in North America Source: PriceWaterhouseCoopers. UK Economic Outlook for March, 2007 50 Largest Metropolitan Economies, 2030
Tokyo New York Los Angeles London Chicago Paris Mexico City Philadelphia Osaka/Kobe Washington DC Buenos Aires Boston Sao Paulo Hong Kong Dallas/Fort Worth Shanghai Seoul Atlanta San Francisco/ Oakland Houston Miami Toronto Moscow Mumbai Madrid Istanbul Detroit Seattle Beijing Metro Manila Sydney Rio de Janiero Jakarta Delhi Phoenix Guangzhou Kolkata Minneapolis San Diego Singapore Cairo Barcelona Melbourne Denver Rome Montreal Bangkok Milan Tehran Riyadh 26 35 38 39 40 33 41 42 42 43 47 43 44 43 41 45 46 45 44 49 44 48 46 52 50 51 57 56 60 59 67 70 69 80 83 82 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 % change in Metropolitan GDP, 2005 2020 Source: PriceWaterhouseCoopers. UK Economic Outlook for March, 2007 93 95 102 109 116 116 fastest growing metropolitan economies in the world are in Asia: 10 will more than double their GDP from 2005-2020 Per cent Change in Metropolitan Economies, 2005-2020 138 138 138 146 159 162 158 170
1988 2012 Shanghai Pudong 15
Not IF but HOW to engage with Asia s metropolitan regions
Canada s engagement must be demand driven and go beyond oil, gas and minerals. We need to better understand market demands.
What is needed? lots of sustainable infrastructure lots of sustainable buildings huge mobility (transport) improvements within and between cities lots of investment innovative financing
Growing middle class demanding: better environmental quality safer cities (natural disasters) smarter cities (energy) affordable cities.
Asia s metropolitan regions need to be hugely innovative if they are to become environmentally, socially, and financially sustainable.
Canada s innovators need to engage with Asian metropolitan regions: companies design professions city governments public agencies universities.
Federal government should take on a coordinative and supportive role in Canada s engagement with Asia s metropolitan regions.
Way Forward two parting ideas on moving forward 23
EDC and CPP Investment Board spearheading a $1 bn innovative urban investment fund to support Canadian innovators in Asia s metropolitan regions
NRC, SSHRC, IDRC, companies to capitalize a $100 mn Urban Innovation Fund to support commercial and academic R+D on sustainable development of Asia s metropolitan regions.
Sorry I couldn t make it to today s session. Best wishes from Beijing for a productive discussion!