The Digital Road to Recovery: A Stimulus Plan to Create Jobs, Boost Productivity, and Revitalize America January 7, 2009 Presenters: Rob Atkinson, President, ITIF Stephen Ezell, Senior Analyst, ITIF Respondents: John Irons, Research and Policy Director, Economic Policy Institute Bracken Hendricks, Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress
Summary Findings A stimulus package that spurs or supports investment of $30B in America s IT network infrastructure will create about 950,000 U.S. jobs. Estimates of U.S. by Investments in Network Infrastructures IT Infrastructure Project Investment Small Business Broadband networks $10 billion 498,000 262,050 Health IT $10 billion 212,000 121,675 Smart power grid $10 billion 239,000 140,500 Total $30 billion 949,000 524,225 2009 ITIF page 2
Employment Multipliers 1. Direct jobs created 2. Indirect jobs created 3. Induced jobs created 4. Network effect jobs created 2009 ITIF page 3
The Network Effect Multiplier Network effects arise from the new consumer and business behaviors, functionalities, and downstream industries enabled by digital infrastructure. They occur because digital infrastructure acts as a platform that supports creation of innovative technologies and services. The network effect is greater in networks that are not yet fully mature. Examples: Broadband: Newer computers, peripherals, social networking, more e-commerce and e-government Health IT: WebMD, Microsoft Health Vault, web cams, telehealth Smart Grid: Smart appliances, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, energy storage, and residential solar power 2009 ITIF page 4
Methodology for Measuring Employment Impact 1. Build a bottom-up analysis of employment impact by measuring the total increase in direct spending within each industry created by the stimulus proposal. - Determine the number of direct service, software, and hardware (manufacturing) jobs created in each industry using industry-specific employee compensation data from BLS. - Estimate mix of technologies (e.g. DSL & fiber optic) deployed for each IT infrastructure. - Assess labor component of equipment/hardware needed to deploy infrastructure. - Apply a leakage factor to account for loss of some mfg. jobs due to imports. 1. Calculate the number of indirect and induced jobs created using industry-specific employment multipliers from the BEA. (Type II indirect and induced.) 2. Apply a network effect multiplier to estimate additional job growth based on the anticipated network effect that creation of these digital infrastructures will have on employment growth. 2009 ITIF page 5
Methodology for Measuring Small Business Employment Impact Small businesses are defined as firms with under 500 employees. 1. For direct jobs: - Apply U.S. Census Bureau data on U.S. County Business Patterns showing percentage of small business workforce in each industry (e.g. software, telecommunications, utilities, construction) 2. For indirect jobs: - Determine the 5-6 largest intermediate industries to the industry in question, using annual intermediate input (input-output account) data from the BEA, and - Multiply that percentage by the weighted-average percentage of the workforce found in small businesses in those supplier industries. 3. For induced and network effect jobs: - Apply the average percentage 50.9% of the U.S. workforce situated in small businesses throughout the economy. 2009 ITIF page 6
Employment Growth from $10B Broadband Investment Stimulus Broadband Networks: U.S. for 1 Year by a $10 Billion Broadband Stimulus Package Job Type Small Business Direct telecommunications jobs Direct capital equipment jobs Indirect and induced jobs Network effect Total Jobs 49,820 13,840 165,815 268,480 497,955 24,910 7,280 93,200 136,660 262,050 2009 ITIF page 7
Employment Growth from $10B Health IT Investment Stimulus Job Type Health IT: U.S. for 1 Year by a $10 Billion Stimulus Package Small Business Direct jobs Indirect and induced jobs Network effect Total Jobs 43,410 115,670 53,025 212,105 31,790 62,895 26,990 121,675 2009 ITIF page 8
Employment Growth from $10B Smart Grid Investment Stimulus Smart Power Grid: U.S. Jobs Creation Under Various Options Job Type $50 Billion Over 5 Years $100 Billion Over 5 Years Federal Mandate Direct and indirect jobs 58,645 117,290 22,725 Induced jobs 120,415 240,830 45,630 Network effect jobs 59,685 119,370 22,785 Small business jobs 140,475 280,950 23,385 Total Jobs Over 5 Years 238,745 477,490 91,140 2009 ITIF page 9
Conclusions Spurring additional investment of $30 billion in America s digital infrastructure in 2009 will create about 950,000 U.S. jobs for 1 year. IT infrastructure investments are shovel ready. These projects and the jobs they create can get started in 2009. While most infrastructure investments only create jobs in the year the investment occurs, many jobs created through network effects enabled by digital infrastructure persist once the infrastructure is built out. Immediate short-term stimulus can drive networks for broadband, health IT, and the smart grid to the tipping point, after which investment can be almost exclusively sustained by the private sector. Beyond immediate jobs creation, IT infrastructure investments drive productivity growth and deliver personal and societal benefits that transform quality of life. 2009 ITIF page 10