Southwestern Electric Power Company Southern States Energy Board 2014 Briefing to Southern Legislators Li?le Rock, Arkansas July 26, 2014
Proposed EPA 111(d) Regulatory Timeline Rule Proposed Enforceable Compliance Program Begins Final Rule Issued Ini1al SIPs* Due 1 Year for Approval Extension for 1 State SIPs* 1 Year for Approval CO 2 Emission Rate Reduc1on Requirements Gradually Become More Stringent Extension for Mul1- State SIPs* 1 Year for Approval 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020. 2030 *SIP: State Implementa1on Plan p.2
Key Assumptions in Building Blocks EPA assumes that all coal generators can improve their heat rate by 6% at a cost of $100/kW. EPA assumes that exisgng and new natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) units could increase their uglizagon to a 70% capacity factor, with a resulgng decrease in coal unit uglizagon. EPA assumes that a renewable poroolio standard is a component of BSER; effecgvely results in 13% nagonal RPS by 2030, although individual state requirements range from 2%- 25% of generagon. EPA assumes that states can ramp annual energy efficiency levels to 1.5% of sales at a cost of ~8.5 to 9.0 /kwh. 3 p.3
Relative Impacts of Building Blocks in 2030 % Contribution of Rate Reduction by Building Block State Coal HRI Redispatch Nuclear RE EE Arkansas 9% 60% 3% 11% 17% Indiana 24% 11% 0% 17% 48% Kentucky 29% 15% 0% 8% 48% Louisiana 7% 54% 3% 13% 22% Michigan 13% 32% 6% 13% 37% Ohio 16% 14% 3% 29% 38% Oklahoma 9% 50% 0% 21% 20% Texas 8% 44% 1% 27% 20% Virginia 6% 33% 7% 31% 24% West Virginia 27% 0% 0% 52% 21% q Building blocks play varying roles in driving emission goals amongst states due to inherent differences in the genera1ng fleet and EPA s assump1ons surrounding EE and RE. 4 p.4
Impacts of Redispatch in 2020 Reduction in Coal Generation Due to Redispatch State % Arkansas 64% Indiana 5% Kentucky 1% Louisiana 53% Michigan 23% Ohio 7% Oklahoma 52% Texas 52% Virginia 44% West Virginia 0% q EPA assumes that a large amount of coal genera1on is displaced under its determina1on that NGCC should have preferen1al dispatch. q EPA s analysis of the proposed rule projects an incremental 46-49 GW of coal re1ring by 2020, in addi1on to the 60+ GW that will already re1re this decade. 5 p.5
Comparison of 111(d) Rule Baseline CO 2 Emission Rates (lbs/mwh) 2500 2246 2000 1500 1284 1000 500 339 0 Montana Kentucky Wyoming West Virginia Nebraska North Dakota Missouri Kansas Indiana Tennessee Illinois Maryland Ohio Wisconsin Utah Colorado Michigan North Carolina Arkansas South Carolina New Mexico Iowa Hawaii Pennsylvania Georgia Minnesota Louisiana Arizona Alabama Oklahoma Alaska Virginia Texas (#33) Delaware Florida South Dakota Mississippi Nevada New York New Jersey Massachusetts Rhode Island New Hampshire Connecticut Washington Oregon California Maine Idaho Source: EPA Goal Computation Technical Support Document; excludes Vermont. Includes all generation subject to the state goals: generation from fossil fuel- fried units (>25 MW), all RE generation except hydropower, and approximately 5.8% of nuclear generation; data also adjusted for incremental end- use efficiency. p.6
Electricity Production in the United States Percentage of Total U.S. Production Remaining states produce less than 3% of U.S. electricity generapon. Texas 11% Pennsylvania 6% Florida 5% California 5% Illinois 5% Alabama 4% New York 3% Ohio Louisiana 3% 3% Michigan Georgia Indiana Washington N. Carolina 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% The above graphic demonstrates the share of United States electricity generation by state. Source: EPA s egrid Database, 2012 Data. p.7
States Proportion of Total CO 2 Reductions from Electric Generation by 2030 (Budgeted Rate) Remaining states have reducpons in CO 2 less than 2% of total U.S. emissions or are expected to increase CO 2 Emissions. Texas - 17.87% 791 lb/mwh North Carolina - 2.25% 992 lb/mwh Michigan - 2.28% 1,161 lb/mwh South Carolina - 2.44% 772 lb/mwh Wisconsin - 2.49% 1,203 lb/mwh Wyoming - 2.52% 1,714 lb/mwh Indiana - 2.55% 1,531 lb/mwh Minnesota - 2.81% 873 lb/mwh Arizona - 2.84% Alabama - 4.44% 702 lb/mwh Mississippi - 3.01% 1,059 lb/mwh 692 lb/mwh Illinois - 3.08% Georgia - 3.65% 1,271 lb/mwh Arkansas - 3.62% 834 lb/mwh New York - 3.37% Oklahoma - 3.40% 910 lb/mwh 549 lb/mwh 895 lb/mwh Florida - 7.06% 740 lb/mwh Louisiana - 6.20% 883 lb/mwh Pennsylvania - 5.21% 1,052 lb/mwh Graph does not include Alaska and Hawaii because data was not available. Vermont is excluded because it is not covered by EPA's rule. The following states were excluded from the graph because they are anticipated to have gains in CO 2 emissions: North Dakota (1.0%), Kentucky (3.0%), California (7.0%), Montana (8.0%), Kansas (10.0%), Nebraska (10.0%), Missouri (14.0%), and Rhode Island (37.0%). Sources: EPA s egrid 2012 Data & Bloomberg, New Energy Finance analysis (for the rate-to-mass conversion on which percentages are based). p.8
States Assumed CO 2 Reductions from Electric Generation by 2030 (tons) 140,000,000 120,000,000 100,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000 0-20,000,000 Texas Florida Louisiana Pennsylvania Alabama Georgia Arkansas Oklahoma New York Illinois Mississippi Arizona Minnesota Indiana Wyoming Wisconsin South Carolina Michigan North Carolina Virginia Iowa Washington Massachusefs New Jersey Tennessee Colorado Maine Nevada Utah Oregon New Hampshire ConnecGcut Maryland Ohio Delaware Idaho New Mexico South Dakota West Virginia North Dakota Rhode Island Montana Kentucky Nebraska Kansas California Missouri Graph does not include Alaska and Hawaii because data was not available. Vermont is excluded because it is not covered by EPA's rule. Sources: EPA s egrid 2012 Data & Bloomberg, New Energy Finance analysis (for the rate-to-mass conversion on which percentages are based). p.9
EPA s Modeled Increases in Renewable Electricity 2012 to 2030 (MWh) BLOCK 3 100,000,000 90,000,000 80,000,000 70,000,000 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 2012 Existing Cap. 2012-2020 Decrease 2012-2020 Increase 2020-2030 Increase 10,000,000 0 Texas California Pennsylvania New York Florida Illinois Washington Oklahoma Alabama Ohio Oregon Georgia North Carolina Virginia Colorado West Virginia New Jersey South Carolina Wyoming Kansas Massachusetts Iowa Michigan Minnesota Indiana Louisiana Wisconsin Nevada Maryland North Dakota Mississippi New Hampshire New Mexico Arkansas Tennessee Nebraska Arizona Maine Idaho Connecticut Missouri Montana Utah South Dakota Kentucky Hawaii Delaware Rhode Island Alaska Modeled increases are in megawatt- hours (MWh) comparing 2012 data to EPA s projected 2020 target, and then comparing EPA s projected 2020 target to EPA s projected 2030 target. p.10
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STATE POLICYMAKER STATEMENTS REGARDING EPA'S UPCOMING GREENHOUSE GAS REGULATION FOR EXISTING POWER PLANTS (last updated 7/7/2014) LegislaPon LegislaPve ResoluPon Governor Le?er A?orney General Le?er PUC Commissioners Le?er/ ResoluPon AL * * * * * AR * * AZ * * * FL * * * * GA * * * * IL * * IN * * * * * KS * * * KY * * * * * * LA * * * * * MD * * MI * * * MO * * * * * MS Environmental Commissioner Le?er * * * * * MT * * * NV * NM * NC * * * * * ND * * * NE * * OH * * * * * OK * * * * PA * * * SC * * * * SD * * TN * * * TX * * * * * UT * * * VA * * * * WI * * * * WV * * * * * * p.12
QuesPons & Answers p.13