Public Disclosure Authorized AFRICA Tanzania Education Global Practice Requesting Unit: AFCE1 Responsible Unit: GED01 IBRD/IDA Program-for-Results FY 2015 Team Leader(s): Cornelia Jesse, Salman Asim, Samer Al-Samarrai Seq No: 8 ARCHIVED on 26-Sep-2018 ISR32886 Created by: Salman Asim on 01-Jun-2018 Modified by: Salman Asim on 08-Sep-2018 Public Disclosure Authorized Program Development Objectives Program Development Objective (from Program Appraisal Document) A. Program Development Objective(s) Improve education quality in Tanzanian primary and secondary schools. Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Satisfactory Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Implementation Status and Key Decisions The Program Development Objective (PDO) of Tanzania Education Program for Results is to improve education quality in Tanzanian primary and secondary schools. Overall progress towards PDO continues to be satisfactory. Three out of the four PDO indicators for the original program were achieved at the time of the Mid-Term Review (MTR) in October 2016. PDO. PDOs 1a and 1b will be updated in the next ISR following completion of analysis and dissemination of the findings of the 2017 Early Grade Reading Assessment and Early Grade Math Assessment. PDOs 2a and 2b are updated following analysis of the 2016 Service Delivery Indicators; PDO 2a, the percentage of teachers found in a classroom has risen from 53% at baseline (2014) to 57% (2016); PDO 2b, the average teacher knowledge score (2b) has risen from 63.1 percent in Math in 2014 to 64.9 percent in 2016; however, the overall performance in English has declined, from 41.9 in 2014 to 31.7 in 2016. This decline is driven by a large reduction in scores in a composition task and could potentially reflect measurement issues. PDO 3, introduced during AF, measures national average Certificate of Secondary Education Examination (CSEE) pass rates in Science, English and Math. Progress against PDO 3 will updated following the release of CSEE pass rates for 2018, expected in August, and included in the next ISR. Overall implementation progress remains satisfactory. The Government has approved a revised School Quality Assurance Operations Manual and Handbook; Teacher Deployment Strategy; and Inclusive Education Strategy which includes provision for students with special needs, fulfilling three out of four Foundational DLRs under the AF. The remaining foundational DLR, which supports a School Infrastructure Strategy, is expected to be approved in August 2018. Implementation of the new School Quality Assurance Operations Manual and Handbook has already begun with training sessions conducted with School Quality Assurance officers and Ward Education Officers, and school visits underway. However, the Government has requested a three month extension of DLR 9.1 to complete the commissioning of policy and planning capacity building activities. The long-term fiscal outlook for the sector is a cause for concern. Under an Advisory and Analytical Services (P164398), the World Bank recently completed analysis of the fiscal forecast for provision of lower secondary education in the context of rapid increases in enrollment under the Fee- Free Basic Education Policy. The analysis suggests that if planned policies for construction and staffing are maintained, the cost of lower secondary education may increase by as much as 3.4 times by 2024.This is unlikely to be sustainable, and poses a threat to PDO achievement. Training was provided to policymakers and technical staff on the use of the tool during a research dissemination mission in May 2018. Further Technical Assistance is recommended to support the embedding of the model in Government and the expansion of the model to include primary education. 9/26/2018 Page 1 of 16
Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P147486 IDA-55270 Closed USD 122.00 122.00 0.00 85.28 26.49 76% P147486 IDA-60610 Effective USD 80.00 80.00 0.00 0.00 85.97 0% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P147486 IDA-55270 Closed 10-Jul-2014 19-Aug-2014 05-Dec-2014 30-Jun-2018 30-Jun-2018 P147486 IDA-60610 Effective 23-May-2017 30-Jun-2017 30-Jun-2017 31-Jan-2020 31-Jan-2020 Program Action Plan 1. Update Program Operations Manual to reflect changes under AF, including updated verification procedures. Client No 30-Nov-2017 Completed 2. Provide capacity building to LGA accountants and internal auditors in order to provide implementation support to schools. Client Yes CONTINUOUS In Progress To be discussed and finalized during the Fiduciary Mission, July 23-Aug 17 3. Prepare financial management guidelines and training manual for school management teams involved in preparation and approval/authorization of FM activities and documents. Client No 29-Dec-2017 In Progress To be discussed and finalized during the Fiduciary Mission, July 23-Aug 17 4. Provide adequate hardware and software to internal auditors at both central and LGA level to enable them to carry out their work, including access to Epicor and Lawson software. 9/26/2018 Page 2 of 16
Client No 31-Jul-2018 In Progress To be discussed and updated during the Fiduciary Mission, July 23-Aug 17 5. School Improvement Toolkits: Provide and disseminate toolkits to primary and secondary schools in English and Kiswahili to address the lack of a proper set up for procurement functions and procedures. Client Yes CONTINUOUS In Progress To be discussed and updated during the Fiduciary Mission, July 23-Aug 17 6. Share timely reports and budgets with RACEF Technical Working Group, including biennial disbursement and execution reports. Client Yes CONTINUOUS In Progress 7. Strengthen LGA and school service boards by establishing a complaints register and ensuring complaints are attended to. Client Yes CONTINUOUS In Progress To be discussed and updated during Safeguards Mission, September 2018 8. The EPforR coordination team will include a social development specialist and the environmental focal point of the MoEST. Client Yes CONTINUOUS Completed Thabith Etutu (MoEST) and Jonafrey Rwabugabo (PO-RALG) are the focal points for both EPforR and SEQUIP (once negotiated). 9. A Grievance Redress Mechanism (GRM) to be established at the school and LGA levels. The GRM has been discussed with stakeholders. 9/26/2018 Page 3 of 16
Client Yes CONTINUOUS In Progress The Government has not been able to share the guidelines for GRM at school and LGA level. The Government has received the hard copy from PO-PSM and is expected to share with DPs soon. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance -- Moderate Moderate Macroeconomic -- Moderate Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies -- Substantial Substantial Technical Design of Project or Program -- Substantial Substantial Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability -- Substantial Substantial Fiduciary -- Substantial Substantial Environment and Social -- Moderate Moderate Stakeholders -- Low Low Other -- -- -- Overall -- Substantial Substantial Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes To improve education quality in Tanzanian primary and secondary schools IN00631021 PDO 1: National average for reading correct words per minute in Oral Reading Fluency (ORF) sub module of EGRA assessment among Grade 2 students (Number, Custom) Value 17.90 23.60 23.60 25.00 Date 10-Jul-2014 04-Oct-2016 04-Oct-2016 30-Jun-2019 Measured as 'words per minute' IN00631022 PDO 2: National average on Level I Subtraction sub module of EGMA assessment among Grade 2 students (Number, Custom) Value 5.50 6.72 6.72 7.00 9/26/2018 Page 4 of 16
Date 10-Jul-2014 04-Oct-2016 04-Oct-2016 30-Jun-2019 Correct Answers per Minute IN00631023 PDO 3: Percentage of teachers found in classroom during unannounced visit (primary & secondary schools) (Percentage, Custom) Value 47.00 53.00 53.00 56.00 Date 10-Jul-2014 04-Oct-2016 04-Oct-2016 30-Jun-2019 IN00631024 PDO 4A: Average Teacher Knowledge Score in Mathematics (Percentage, Custom) Value 63.10 63.10 63.10 65.00 Date 04-Oct-2016 26-Sep-2017 26-Sep-2017 30-Jun-2018 IN00631025 PDO 4B: Average Teacher Knowledge Score in English (Percentage, Custom) Value 41.90 41.90 41.90 45.00 IN00631026 PDO 5A: National Average on CSEE Pass Rate in Mathematics (Percentage, Custom) Value 16.80 18.10 18.10 22.30 IN00631027 PDO 5B: National Average on CSEE Pass Rate in English (Percentage, Custom) Value 56.20 64.30 64.30 74.80 IN00634403 9/26/2018 Page 5 of 16
PDO 5C: National Average on CSEE Pass Rates in Sciences (Percentage, Custom) Value 53.60 54.20 54.20 71.40 IN00634404 PDO 1: National average for reading correct words per minute in Oral Reading Fluency (ORF) sub module of EGRA assessment among Grade 2 students (Number, Custom) Value 17.90 23.60 23.60 25.00 Date 10-Jul-2014 04-Oct-2016 04-Oct-2016 30-Jun-2019 Measured as 'words per minute' IN00634405 PDO 2: National average on Level I Subtraction sub module of EGMA assessment among Grade 2 students (Number, Custom) Value 5.50 6.72 6.72 7.00 Date 10-Jul-2014 04-Oct-2016 04-Oct-2016 30-Jun-2019 Correct Answers per Minute IN00634406 PDO 3: Percentage of teachers found in classroom during unannounced visit (primary & secondary schools) (Percentage, Custom) Value 47.00 53.00 53.00 56.00 Date 10-Jul-2014 04-Oct-2016 04-Oct-2016 30-Jun-2019 IN00634407 PDO 4A: Average Teacher Knowledge Score in Mathematics (Percentage, Custom) Value 63.10 63.10 63.10 65.00 Date 04-Oct-2016 26-Sep-2017 26-Sep-2017 30-Jun-2018 IN00634408 PDO 4B: Average Teacher Knowledge Score in English (Percentage, Custom) Value 41.90 41.90 41.90 45.00 9/26/2018 Page 6 of 16
IN00634409 PDO 5A: National Average on CSEE Pass Rate in Mathematics (Percentage, Custom) Value 16.80 18.10 18.10 22.30 IN00634410 PDO 5B: National Average on CSEE Pass Rate in English (Percentage, Custom) Value 56.20 64.30 64.30 74.80 IN00634411 PDO 5C: National Average on CSEE Pass Rates in Sciences (Percentage, Custom) Value 53.60 54.20 54.20 71.40 Intermediate Results Indicators by Results Areas Improved mastery of 3R (reading and numeracy) skills in Grade 2 students IN00631029 Percentage of Students achieving Grade 2 minimum numeracy skills (Percentage, Custom) Value 7.90 7.90 7.90 12.00 IN00631030 Percentage of students achieving benchmark ORF (50 correct wpm) in EGRA (Amount(USD), Custom) 9/26/2018 Page 7 of 16
Value 6.50 6.50 6.50 8.00 IN00631031 National Average on Level 2 Addition and Subtraction sub module of 3R assessments among Grade 2 Students (Percentage, Custom) Value 26.80 -- 26.80 30.00 Date 31-Oct-2016 -- 30-Jun-2018 30-Jun-2019 IN00631044 Share of pupils with English Textbooks in Standard 4 (Percentage, Custom) Value 26.30 26.30 26.30 50.00 IN00631045 Share of pupils with Mathematics Textbooks in Standard 4 (Percentage, Custom) Value 24.60 24.60 24.60 50.00 IN00634412 Released monthly full amount of capitaiton grants agreed for each year to all Primary Schools within each LGA (Percentage, Custom) Value 109.00 94.00 94.00 85.00 IN00634413 Released monthly full amount of capitation grants agreed for each year to all Secondary Schools within each LGA (Percentage, Custom) Value 107.00 156.00 156.00 85.00 9/26/2018 Page 8 of 16
IN00634416 IN00634417 IN00634419 IN00634420 IN00634414 Percentage of Primary Schools providing evidence of receipt of textbooks showing subject and grade level (Percentage, Custom) Value 0.00 -- 0.00 100.00 Date 04-Oct-2016 -- 30-Jun-2018 30-Jun-2019 New indicator added at Additional Financing. Value to be updated at the Annual Review in September. IN00634415 Percentage of public primary and secondary schools displaying school report cards based on Whole School Inspection (Percentage, Custom) Value 0.00 -- 0.00 50.00 Date 04-Oct-2016 -- 30-Jun-2018 30-Jun-2019 Indicator added at Additional Financing applicable only in FY19/20. Percentage (Primary) (Percentage, Custom Breakdown) Value 0.00 -- 0.00 50.00 Date 04-Oct-2016 -- 30-Jun-2018 30-Jun-2019 Percentage (Secondary) (Percentage, Custom Breakdown) Value 0.00 -- 0.00 50.00 Date 04-Oct-2016 -- 30-Jun-2018 30-Jun-2019 IN00634418 Number of Primary and Secondary schools that have received monetary School Incentive Grants (SIG) based on performance (Number, Custom) Value 0.00 400.00 400.00 400.00 Date 31-Jul-2014 26-Sep-2017 26-Sep-2017 30-Jun-2019 Number (Primary Schools) (Number, Custom Breakdown) Value 0.00 317.00 317.00 300.00 Date 30-Jul-2014 26-Sep-2017 26-Sep-2017 30-Jun-2019 Number (Secondary Schools) (Number, Custom Breakdown) 9/26/2018 Page 9 of 16
Value 0.00 83.00 83.00 100.00 Date 31-Jul-2014 26-Sep-2017 26-Sep-2017 30-Jun-2019 IN00634421 Share of Female Beneficiaries (Primary and Lower Secondary) (World Bank Core Indicator) (Percentage, Custom) Value 50.00 50.75 50.75 50.00 Date 31-Jul-2014 26-Sep-2017 26-Sep-2017 30-Jun-2019 Improved Teacher Peformance IN00631096 Percentage of Schools Receiving Follow Up Inspection Visits (Percentage, Custom) Value 0.00 -- 0.00 10.00 Date 04-Oct-2016 -- 30-Jun-2018 30-Jun-2019 IN00631097 Volume of outstanding teacher claims older than three months (Tanzania Billion Shillings) (Number, Custom) Value 25.00 34.00 34.00 2.00 Date 10-Jul-2014 26-Sep-2017 26-Sep-2017 30-Jun-2019 Improved Performance in Form IV examinations IN00631047 Female average pass rate on CSEE in Mathematics (Percentage, Custom) Value 12.80 14.10 14.10 17.90 IN00631048 Female average pass rate on CSEE in English (Percentage, Custom) 9/26/2018 Page 10 of 16
IN00631101 IN00631102 Value 52.50 60.90 60.90 73.80 IN00631049 Female average pass rate on CSEE in Sciences (Percentage, Custom) Value 45.70 47.60 47.60 64.20 Other Program Indicators IN00631050 Direct Program Beneficiaries (World Bank Core Indicator) (Number, Custom) Value 9,700,000.00 11,398,000.00 11,398,000.00 12,100,000.00 Date 31-Jul-2014 26-Sep-2017 26-Sep-2017 30-Jun-2019 Students (Number, Custom Breakdown) Value 9,700,000.00 11,200,000.00 11,200,000.00 12,100,000.00 Date 31-Jul-2014 26-Sep-2017 26-Sep-2017 30-Jun-2019 Teachers (Number, Custom Breakdown) Value 248,720.00 198,000.00 198,000.00 290,550.00 Disbursement Linked Indicators DLI_IND_TABLE DLI 1 DLR 1: Recipient has completed all the Foundational Activities (DLR 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.4) (Yes/No) (Process, 36.00, 0%) Value No No Yes Yes 9/26/2018 Page 11 of 16
Date 23-May-2017 19-Jun-2017 29-Jun-2018 -- Foundational DLRs 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3 are complete, following Government approval in December 2017 of the Teacher Deployment Strategy, Inclusive Education Strategy with a dedicated section on children with special needs, and the Operational Manual and Handbook for School Quality Assurance (QA). Foundational DLR 1.4 on School Construction Strategy is delayed with expected completion of August 30, 2018. US$24 million allocation on Foundation DLRs achieved in Year 1 of the Original EPforR. AF added new foundational DLRs for US$12 million. DLI 2 DLR 2.1: Recipient has released bi-annually total level of funds per agreed EPforR Budget Framework, according to agreed timeline (%) (Process, 38.00, 0%) Value 0.00 32.50 40.20 90.00 Date 25-Mar-2015 19-Jun-2017 04-Jun-2018 -- DLI 3 DLR 2.2: : Recipient has released monthly, full amounts of Capitation Grants (CGs) agreed for each year to all Schools within each LGA (%) (Yes/No) (Process, 12.00, 0%) Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 10-Jul-2014 04-Oct-2016 29-Jun-2018 -- DLI 4 DLR 2.3: Recipient has met the agreed target of percentage of Primary Schools providing evidence of receipt of textbooks showing subject and grade level (%) (Yes/No) (Output, 6.00, 0%) Value 0.00 -- 0.00 100.00 Date 23-May-2017 -- 30-Jun-2018 -- The Government to provide data on textbook receipts by Annual Review. DLI 5 DLR 3.1: Recipient has released an annual summary education performance report, in an acceptable (%) (Yes/No) (Process, 8.00, 0%) 9/26/2018 Page 12 of 16
Value No Yes No Yes Date 10-Jul-2014 26-Sep-2017 29-Jun-2018 -- To be updated in October 2018, following submission of the ASEPR in September 2018 and Independent Verification Team findings. DLI 6 DLR 3.2: Recipient has made available online annual school-level EMIS data with unique school identifiers (%) (Yes/No) (Output, 8.00, 0%) Value No Yes No Yes Date 10-Jul-2014 04-Oct-2016 30-Jul-2018 -- Annual EMIS data has bee compiled and shared with the Independent verification team. The Government has expressed reservations to upload the data on the open data portal. This will be taken up with the Government at the time of Annual Review in October 2018. DLI 7 DLR 4.1: Recipient has met the annual target for percentage of LGAs achieving the acceptable range for primary PTRs (Output, 10.00, 0%) Value 68.00 64.80 64.80 68.00 Date 10-Jul-2015 26-Sep-2017 29-Jun-2018 -- The Government to provide updates at the time of Annual Review in October 2018. Target to be updated at the Annual Review based on achievement of Foundation DLR. DLI 8 DLR 4.2: Recipient has met the Agreed Target of number of primary schools achieving the acceptable range of primary PTRs in each LGA (number) (Intermediate Outcome, 15.00, 0%) Value 5,672.00 5,742.00 5,742.00 5,672.00 Date 04-Oct-2016 26-Sep-2017 29-Jun-2018 -- The indicator will be updated at the time of Annual Review in October 2018. End Target will be updated based on achievement of Foundation DLR. DLI 9 DLR 5.2: Recipient has met the Agreed Target of number of Schools that have received monetary SIG based on performance (Number) (Output, 10.00, 0%) 9/26/2018 Page 13 of 16
Value 0.00 400.00 400.00 400.00 Date 19-Aug-2014 26-Sep-2017 30-Jun-2018 -- The Government to provide updates at the time of Annual Review in October 2018. DLI 10 DLR 6.2: Recipient has met the annual target of improvement in words per minute (wpm) in national 3R average in early grade Kiswhili reading assessment (wpm) (Outcome, 18.00, 0%) Value 23.60 -- 23.60 25.00 Date -- -- 30-Jun-2018 -- DLI 11 DLR 6.3: Recipient has met the Agreed Target of national average on level 2 addition and subtraction sub module of 3R assessment among grade 2 students (Outcome, 6.00, 0%) Value 26.80 26.80 26.80 30.00 Date 04-Oct-2016 26-Sep-2017 29-Jun-2018 -- EGRA/EGMA 3R assessments are delayed. The final report is expected shortly and the indicator will be updated at the time of Annual Review. DLI 12 DLR 7.1: Recipient has met the Agreed Target of percentage of LGAs/Regions achieving year-on-year increase in aggregate primary and lower secondary education survival rates. (Outcome, 12.00, 0%) Value 0.00 82.00 82.00 41.00 Date 04-Oct-2016 26-Sep-2017 30-Jun-2018 -- Year-on-Year increase to be estimated from EMIS data. The indicator will be updated when the results are compiled from the latest round of EMIS in August. DLI 13 DLR 7.2: Recipient has met the Agreed Target of percentage of regions achieving year-on-year increase in girls transition rate from primary standard 7 to Secondary form I (%) (Outcome, 6.00, 0%) 9/26/2018 Page 14 of 16
Value 0.00 -- 0.00 0.00 Date -- -- 30-Jun-2018 -- It is for the first time this indicator is measured. The values for baseline will be populated once EMIS data is cleaned. DLI 14 DLR 8.1 Recipient has met the Agreed Target of percentage of Schools displaying school report cards based on whole school inspection (%) (Process, 10.00, 0%) Value 0.00 -- 0.00 50.00 Date -- -- -- -- The introduction of the new School Quality Assurance framework is being rolled-out, with training provided to some School Quality Assurance Officers in region across Tanzania. However, MoEST remains behind their targets due to delays in approving the budget for training. As DLR 8.1 is a cumulative target up until FY 2018/19, the Government will not be claiming on DLR 8.1 for this year (FY 2017/18). No disbursement will be made on DLR 8.1, progress against the cumulative target will be independently verified in October 2019, Annual Review. DLI 15 DLR 8.2: Recipient has met the Agreed Target of increase in school quality score for selected Schools to be inspected twice in consecutive years (Intermediate Outcome, 5.00, 0%) Value 0.00 -- 0.00 800.00 Date -- -- 30-Jun-2018 -- DLI 16 DLR 9.1: Recipient has met the Agreed Target of number of new commissions granted to support policy, planning and innovation (number) (Process, 2.00, 0%) Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 Date 23-May-2017 26-Sep-2017 29-Jun-2018 -- The Government has requested a three-month extension of DLR 9.1, which rewards the commissioning of policy and planning capacity building activities, from 30th June 2018 to 30th September 2018 to allow the 9/26/2018 Page 15 of 16
completion of planning and contracting processes; revisions to the DLR to accommodate this extension will be considered at the Annual Review. 9/26/2018 Page 16 of 16