US Economic Indicators: NFIB March, 19 Dr. Edward Yardeni -972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 48-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents 1-14 March, 19 / NFIB
1 Figure 1. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: OPTIMISM INDEX (1986=, sa) 1 9 9 9 9 8 Monthly data* (1.7) -ma (.7) 8 8 8 8 Figure 2. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: OUTOOK FOR GENERAL BUSINESS CONDITIONS (percent better minus worse 6 months from now) Monthly data* (11.) -ma (26.8) 8 - - - - - - - - Page 1 / March, 19 / NFIB
Figure 3. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: OUTOOK FOR EXPANSION (percent good time to expand next 3 months) Monthly data* (22.) -ma (.) 4 - - - - - - - Figure 4. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: REAL SALES (Net percent expecting higher in 6 months) Monthly data* (.) -ma (.1) 4 - - - - - - - * First month of every quarter from 1974 to 1986, then monthly Page 2 / March, 19 / NFIB
Figure. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: EARNINGS (percent higher minus lower over past 3 months) - - - - - - - Monthly data* -ma - - - 48 44 Figure 6. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: CAPITAL EXPENDITURES PLANS (percent increasing in the next 3 months) 48 44 36 36 32 32 Monthly data* -ma 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 14 18 22 * First month of every quarter from 1976 to 1986, then monthly. Page 3 / March, 19 / NFIB
Figure 7. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: INVENTORIES (percent increasing) - - - - - - - - - Monthly data -month average 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 14 18 22 - - - Figure 8. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: HIRING PLANS (percent increase minus decrease over next 3 months) 8 8 4 4-4 -8 - Monthly data* (.) -ma (.6) -4-8 - Page 4 / March, 19 / NFIB
Figure 9. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: JOB OPENINGS & HIRING PLANS Percent with job openings* (37.) Net percent increasing hiring over next 3 months* (.) - - Figure. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: JOB OPENINGS & QUALIFIED APPLICANTS (percent, sa) Percent with few or no qualified applicants for job openings (49.) Percent with job openings* (37.) Page / March, 19 / NFIB
Figure 11. NFIB: PERCENT BORROWING AT LEAST ONCE A QUARTER 1 47 Monthly data* -ma 1 47 43 43 39 39 31 31 27 27 23 23 Source: National Federation of Small Business. 36 34 32 26 22 18 14 8 6 4 2-2 Figure. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: REPORTING THAT CREDIT WAS HARDER TO GET LAST TIME (net percent) Monthly data* -ma 36 34 32 26 22 18 14 8 6 4 2-2 Source: National Federation of Small Business. Page 6 / March, 19 / NFIB
7 6 4 - - - - - - Figure 13. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: PRICING (percent) Percent Planning to Raise Average Selling Prices* (26.) Percent Raising Average Selling Prices* (13.) 7 6 4 - - - - - - 6 4 - - - - - - Figure 14. NFIB: PRICING (6-ma) Percent Planning to Raise Average Selling Prices Percent Raising Average Selling Prices 6 4 - - - - - - Page 7 / March, 19 / NFIB
Figure. MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS SMALL BUSINESSES FACE (percent, 6-ma) Poor Sales Taxes Government Regulation Financial & Interest Rates 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 21 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Figure. NFIB: SMALL BUSINESS EARNINGS & POOR SALES (percent, -ma) - - Percent Reporting Poor Sales (inverted scale) - NFIB: Earnings Higher Minus Lower Past 3 Months - 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 21 - Page 8 / March, 19 / NFIB
Figure 17. NFIB: SMALL BUSINESS REPORTING GOOD TIME TO EXPAND, CAPITAL SPENDING & EMPLOYMENT PLANS (-month average, percent) Capital Spending (next 3 to 6 months) Good Time To Expand Plans To Increase Employment - 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 21-36 Figure 18. NFIB: EXPANSION PLANS (-month average, percent) 36 32 32 8 4-4 -8 Capital Spending Plans (next 3 to 6 months) Percent of Firms With One or More Job Openings Percent of Firms Expecting to Increase Employment 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 21 8 4-4 -8 Page 9 / March, 19 / NFIB
32 Figure 19. NFIB: SMALL BUSINESS REPORTING GOOD TIME TO EXPAND & EARNINGS (-month average, percent) - - Good Time To Expand - Earnings Over Past 3 Months (higher minus lower) - 8 4 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 21 - Figure. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: EARNINGS & CAPITAL SPENDING PLANS (-month average, percent) - Earnings Over Past 3 Months* (higher minus lower) - Capital Spending Plans* (next 3 to 6 months) -4 * First month of every quarter from 1974 to 1986, then -month average. Page / March, 19 / NFIB
Figure 21. NFIB: SMALL BUSINESS EMPLOYMENT MEASURES (-month average, percent) Firms With One Or More Job Openings - Expecting To Increase Employment 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 21-4 Figure 22. NFIB: SMALL BUSINESS REPORTING GOOD TIME TO EXPAND & CAPITAL SPENDING (-month average, percent) 4 Capital Spending (next 3 to 6 months) Good Time To Expand 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 21 Page 11 / March, 19 / NFIB
4 Figure 23. NFIB: CAPITAL SPENDING INTENTIONS & CAPITAL SPENDING IN REAL GDP Q4 NFIB: Percent Planning Capital Expenditures Next 3 to 6 Months - Capital Spending in Real GDP on Equipment & Software (yearly percent change) 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 21 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Federation of Independent Business. - - 8 Figure. NFIB: CAPITAL SPENDING (percent) Capital Spending (percent) Making Plans Over the Past 6 Months Planning Over Next 3 to 6 Months 8 4 6 7 8 9 11 13 14 17 18 19 Page / March, 19 / NFIB
8 6 4 2 Figure. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: JOB OPENINGS & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE NFIB: Small Business with Job Openings* (percent, 3-month average) Unemployment Rate (percent) 41 39 37 33 31 29 27 23 21 19 17 13 11 9 7 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: National Federation of Independent Business and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Figure 26. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: JOB OPENINGS & JOBS AVAILABILITY (percent) 7 6 4 Small Business with Job Openings* (3-ma) (37.) Consumer Confidence Survey: Jobs Hard to Get** (13.7) Mar ** Every other month from 1967 through mid-1977, then monthly since July 1977. Seasonally adjusted. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: National Federation of Independent Business and The Conference Board. Page 13 / March, 19 / NFIB
Figure 27. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: EARNINGS & EMPLOYMENT PLANS (-month average, percent) - - - Earnings Over Past 3 Months* (higher minus lower) Expecting To Increase Employment* (next 3 months) 74 7 76 77 78 79 8 81 82 83 84 8 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 13 14 17 18 19 21 - - - * First month of every quarter from 1974 to 1986, then -month average. 4. 4. 3. Figure. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX: WAGES & SALARIES & NFIB 3. 2. Q4 2. 1. 1... ECI: Wages & Salaries Civilian Workers (yearly percent change) (3.) NFIB: Planning to Raise Worker Compensation in next 3 months (18.) 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 11 13 14 17 18 19 21 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Federation of Small Business. - Page 14 / March, 19 / NFIB
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