ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN: Middle-skill jobs in Fresno, Merced, San Joaquin, Santa Clara and Stanislaus Counties

ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN: Middle-skill jobs in Fresno, Merced, San Joaquin, Santa Clara and Stanislaus Counties Central Valley/Mother Lode Region April 2017 Prepared by: Nora J. Seronello Center of Excellence Central Valley/Mother Lode Region seronellon@mjc.edu

TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 3 INTRODUCTION... 4 STUDY METHODOLOGY... 4 TOP FIVE OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTERS... 5 TOP INDUSTRIES BY AREA... 7 FASTEST GROWING INDUSTRIES... 9 2016 IN-DEMAND JOBS... 11 IN-DEMAND SKILLS... 14 IN-DEMAND CERTIFICATIONS... 19 EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK... 21 WAGES... 27 EDUCATIONAL TRAINING... 32 COMMUNITY COLLEGE SUPPLY... 37 CONCLUSION & RECOMMENDATIONS... 41 APPENDIX A: METHODOLOGY & DATA SOURCES... 43 APPENDIX B: MERCED COUNTY COMMUTING PATTERN... 45 APPENDIX C: JOB COUNT BY CLUSTER AND AREA... 46 APPENDIX D: JOB OPENINGS BY OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTER... 48 APPENDIX E: COMMUNITY COLLEGE SUPPLY... 51 APPENDIX F: CURRENT AND PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT, ALL OCCUPATIONS... 54 MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 2

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY With a focus on middle-skill jobs, which are anticipated to undergo strong growth in the state and region over the next decade, the Central Valley/Mother Lode Center of Excellence has conducted a labor market analysis targeting three geographic regions in and around the Central Valley: a four-county region comprising Fresno, Merced, San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties; Merced County; and Santa Clara County. The study collected data on workforce needs for middle-skill occupations, those requiring either a high school diploma, some college education or an associate degree, but less than a bachelor s degree. Job posting data were analyzed to determine which occupations, skills and certifications are most in demand in the three regions of focus. Wages for occupations with the most projected job openings for each region were also determined. Data related to community college supply, occupational outlooks and educational attainment typically required by employers also were analyzed. The study determined that a large number of Merced county workers are commuting from the Los Banos area in Merced County to the San Francisco Bay Area. Commuters are primarily traveling to Santa Clara County, followed by Stanislaus, Fresno and San Joaquin counties. Key findings include: The two largest occupational clusters for all three regions are production, and office and administrative support. Elementary and secondary schools (local government) and local government (excluding education and hospitals) comprise two of the top industries with the most jobs for the four-county area, Merced County and Santa Clara County. The services for the elderly and persons with disabilities industry is the No. 1 fastest growing industry in the four-county region and Santa Clara County, and ranks No. 2 in Merced County. This industry is projected to have nearly 18,000 job openings over the next five years for all three regions. The occupation of registered nurses ranked first in the four-county area and Merced County for most job postings. Registered nurses ranked second in Santa Clara County. It should also be noted, the most in-demand certification for all three areas is registered nurse, and this occupation pays some of the highest wages. With more than 15,000 registered nurses in the four-county area, this occupation is expected to grow by 14%, with 836 annual job openings through 2021. Across all three geographic areas studied, there were a significant number of postings for first-line supervisors of retail sales workers, sales representatives and customer service representatives in all three geographic areas. In Merced County, the occupations with the most projected openings, aside from registered nurses, are: heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers (8% growth, 61 annual openings); teacher assistants (6%, 52 annual openings); and packaging and filling machine operators and tenders (12%, 43 annual openings). Among the occupations with the most projected job openings in Merced County, farmers, ranchers and other agricultural managers earn the second highest experienced wage ($21.08 per hour), and maintenance and repair workers rank third ($20.20). None of the experienced wages for the top 10 occupations in Merced County fall below the county s living wage. In Merced County, community colleges are conferring the most awards in the areas of health; business and management; commercial services; engineering and industrial technologies; and public and protective services. MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 3

INTRODUCTION The Central Valley/Mother Lode Center of Excellence received a request in early 2017 from Merced College to conduct an environmental scan to determine regional labor market demand and identify sectors where future job growth will occur. The following report focuses on middle-skill jobs, which are expected to be in high demand over the next 10 years. To gauge workforce needs in the selected northwestern section of the Central Valley region and Santa Clara County, the Center of Excellence conducted an examination of community college-relevant, middle-skill occupations, those jobs generally requiring less than a bachelor s degree. However, exceptions are made for those occupations that are targeted by local programming, such as animal breeding, and/or jobs that require some level of up-skilling, such as management and supervisorial occupations. This report discusses which jobs are currently in high demand and which will be in the future, with a special focus on Merced County. The study determined that many Merced County workers (25%) are commuting from the Los Banos area to the San Francisco Bay Area. Review of Merced County commuter patterns confirms this fact, revealing that the majority of residents are employed within Merced County, followed by (in order) Stanislaus, Santa Clara, San Joaquin and Fresno counties. There are workers whose employment is scattered across a number of Bay Area counties; however, the greatest concentration of workers commute to Santa Clara County. When the focus is narrowed to include only Los Banos residents, the pattern is fairly similar, but the largest commuting group is traveling to Santa Clara County followed by Stanislaus, Fresno and San Joaquin counties. Based on this information, the scan parameters are set to include these five counties. Santa Clara County is discussed separately because it is not part of the Central Valley/Mother Lode region. In the following sections, Merced County is examined as part of the fourcounty group and on its own because it is the study s target county, and subsequently, has the largest concentration of (targeted) workers. (Appendix B shows Merced County s commuting pattern.) STUDY METHODOLOGY To determine workforce development and training needs of local employers, skills and certification data for occupations that require less than a bachelor s degree were extracted from Burning Glass, a job market analytics provider that gleans real-time data from hundreds of millions of job postings. Burning Glass was also used to identify the top 10 most in-demand jobs over the last 12 months. The parameter of job postings requiring less than a bachelor s degree was used to filter out those jobs that were not middleskill jobs, and, thus, are not relevant for community college programs. The sections of the report pertaining to occupations, wages and education level focus on the top 25 occupations that have the greatest number of annual openings for each region of focus. See Appendix C for details on all relevant occupations, which are organized by occupational cluster rather than sector to avoid duplication. It should be noted that a single completion at a community college can translate into supply for more than one occupation; therefore, the completions or supply data is contained in its own section separate from the occupational data to avoid duplication of a single award. It is also of note that a single award or completion does not always represent a single person because an individual can receive multiple awards in a single term or year. Emsi, an economic modeling data provider, was used to establish job numbers across community collegerelevant occupations and workforce demand projections over the next five years. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), including the Current Population Survey (CPS) national data, were assembled to provide typical education and training levels for each occupation. The California Community Colleges Chancellor s Office-Data Mart, which provides data on student outcomes, and the federal Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) were used to identify the number of students completing college programs and entering the workforce. Please refer to Appendix A for more details. MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 4

TOP FIVE OCCUPATIONAL CLUSTERS To determine where jobs are concentrated in the three focal areas, the study analyzed five occupational clusters: office and administrative support; production; transportation and material moving; installation, maintenance and repair; and sales and related. The majority of jobs in all three geographic areas are concentrated within the office and administrative support cluster (Exhibit 1). The next top clusters are production, and transportation and materials moving. Exhibit 1. Top five occupational clusters by percentage of jobs Office and Administrative Support (37) 20% 17% 18% Production (91) 10% 10% 10% Transportation and Materials Moving (31) 3% 9% 8% Installation, Maintenance and Repair (48) 6% 8% 8% Sales and Related (14) 5% 7% 9% Santa Clara Merced 4-CVML Counties The study also analyzed occupational clusters to determine which cluster has the greatest employment. Please see Appendix C for the total number of jobs for each of the three geographic areas arranged by occupational cluster. Exhibit 2 shows the percent of jobs comprising each cluster. In Santa Clara County, office and administrative support, computer and mathematical, business and financial, and architecture and engineering jobs account for a larger percentage of these clusters than in the four-county area or Merced County. Merced County leads the three areas with a higher percentage of jobs in transportation and materials moving; management; education, training and library; and farming, fishing and forestry. The four-county area has a greater percentage of jobs in the clusters of healthcare practitioner and technical, healthcare support and personal care service. More detailed analysis of job openings by occupational cluster is included in Appendix D. MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 5

Exhibit 2. Percent of jobs comprising each cluster % of 2016 by Occupational Cluster 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 Office and Administrative Support (37) Production (91) Transportation and Materials Moving (31) Installation, Maintenance and Repair (48) Sales and Related (14) Healthcare Practitioners and Technical (24) Construction and Extraction (47) Healthcare Support (17) Personal Care Services (17) Management (13) Education, Training and Library (7) Business and Financial (16) Food Preparation and Serving Related (5) Protective Service (19) Farming, Fishing and Forestry (11) Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports and Media (26) Computer and Mathematical (6) Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance (4) Architecture and Engineering (13) Legal (3) Life, Physical and Social Science (11) Santa Clara Merced 4-CVML Counties MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 6

TOP INDUSTRIES BY AREA The following tables show the top 12 industries for the four-county Central Valley/Mother Lode (CVML) area as a whole, and Santa Clara and Merced counties individually. For each industry, the current number of jobs, projected number of jobs by 2021 and percent change are calculated. Four-county CVML Area The three industries with the greatest number of jobs in the four-county area are: elementary and secondary schools, local government and crop production (Exhibit 3). However, crop production is projected to lose nearly 1,300 jobs over the next five years, a 4% decline. Meanwhile, employment within local government is expected to remain steady, with only minimal growth, 2% over the next five years. Industries with the most jobs that are projected to undergo rapid expansion include: services for the elderly and persons with disabilities, a 45% increase with more than 14,000 new jobs; temporary help services, an 18% increase with nearly 3,000 new jobs; and general warehousing and storage, a 27% increase with nearly 4,000 new jobs. Exhibit 3. Industries with the most jobs in the four-county area Industry 2016 2021 5-Yr 5-Yr % Elementary and Secondary Schools (Local Government) 67,472 71,854 4,382 6% Local Government, Excluding Education and Hospitals 39,109 39,745 636 2% Crop Production 34,854 33,580 (1,274) (4%) Farm Labor Contractors and Crew Leaders 32,852 33,765 913 3% Services for the Elderly and Persons with Disabilities 31,411 45,574 14,163 45% Limited-Service Restaurants 29,879 33,214 3,335 11% General Medical and Surgical Hospitals 25,359 26,007 648 3% Full-Service Restaurants 23,932 25,422 1,490 6% Offices of Physicians (except Mental Health Specialists) 15,794 17,540 1,746 11% Supermarkets and Other Grocery (except Convenience) 15,326 15,831 505 3% Stores Temporary Help Services 15,182 17,966 2,784 18% General Warehousing and Storage 14,061 17,833 3,772 27% Santa Clara County Industries with the most employment in Santa Clara County include elementary and secondary schools, local government and limited-service restaurants. These industries will undergo moderate growth, adding 2,271 jobs collectively by 2021 (Exhibit 4). Several industries in the county are expected to contract over the next five years. The farm labor contractors and crew leaders industry is projected to lose 122 jobs, a decline of 3%, while the supermarkets and other grocery industry will lose 82 positions, a 2% decline. Industries undergoing the most rapid growth in the county include services for the elderly and persons with disabilities, which will add 2,561 jobs by 2021, a 45% growth rate. Limited-service and full-service restaurants, will grow by 11% and 10% respectively, adding a total of 1,356 jobs between the two industries. Wineries will expand by 11%, adding 386 positions. MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 7

Exhibit 4. Industries with the most jobs in Santa Clara County Industry 2016 2021 5-Yr 5-Yr % Elementary and Secondary Schools (Local Government) 14,757 15,725 968 7% Local Government, Excluding Education and Hospitals 8,643 9,157 514 6% Limited-Service Restaurants 7,186 7,975 789 11% General Medical and Surgical Hospitals 6,293 6,424 131 2% Full-Service Restaurants 5,961 6,528 567 10% Services for the Elderly and Persons with Disabilities 5,661 8,222 2,561 45% Crop Production 5,581 5,936 355 6% Farm Labor Contractors and Crew Leaders 3,867 3,745 (122) (3%) Animal Production and Aquaculture 3,821 3,784 (37) (1%) Supermarkets and Other Grocery (except Convenience) 3,588 3,506 (82) (2%) Stores Offices of Physicians (except Mental Health Specialists) 3,432 3,767 335 10% Wineries 3,369 3,755 386 11% Merced County Merced County has the same three top industries as the four-county region: elementary and secondary schools, crop production and local government (Exhibit 5). Several industries in the county are projected to shrink over the next five years: local government will shed 57 jobs, a 1% decline; animal production and aquaculture will experience a similar decline, losing 50 positions, also a 1% decline. Poultry processing will shrink by 2%, losing 50 jobs as well. The supermarkets and other grocery industry will decline by 5%, shedding 69 jobs. Three industries are projected to experience robust growth by 2021. The services for the elderly and persons with disabilities will increase by 49%, adding 1,184 jobs. Colleges, universities and professional schools will grow by 43%, offering 1,427 new positions. The industry comprising farm labor contractors and crew leaders will add 502 new positions, a 15% growth rate. Exhibit 5. Industries with the most jobs in Merced County Industry 2016 2021 5-Yr 5-Yr % Elementary and Secondary Schools (Local Government) 8,393 8,796 403 5% Crop Production 6,104 6,672 568 9% Local Government, Excluding Education and Hospitals 3,993 3,936 (57) (1%) Animal Production and Aquaculture 3,780 3,730 (50) (1%) Farm Labor Contractors and Crew Leaders 3,365 3,867 502 15% Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools (State 3,300 4,727 1,427 43% Government) Limited-Service Restaurants 2,743 2,994 251 9% Services for the Elderly and Persons with Disabilities 2,441 3,625 1,184 49% Poultry Processing 2,227 2,177 (50) (2%) Full-Service Restaurants 1,409 1,464 55 4% General Medical and Surgical Hospitals 1,363 1,327 (36) (3%) Supermarkets and Other Grocery (except Convenience) Stores 1,322 1,253 (69) (5%) MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 8

FASTEST GROWING INDUSTRIES To determine where jobs will be five years from now, the study looked at the largest and fastest growing industries in the four-county CVML region, Santa Clara County and Merced County. Four-county CVML Area Of the three largest industries in the four-county CVML area elementary and secondary schools, local government, services for the elderly and persons with disabilities, and limited-service restaurants only one, services for the elderly and persons with disabilities, is among the area s fastest growing industries, with a 45% growth rate, representing the addition of more than 14,000 jobs. Elementary and secondary schools will experience the second greatest gains adding 4,382 jobs by 2021 (Exhibit 6). The general warehousing and storage industry will expand by 27%, adding 3,772. Likewise, warehouse clubs and supermarkets are projected to undergo robust growth at 41%, adding nearly 3,000 jobs. Also notable are several industries associated with health care: home health care services at 41%, HMO medical centers at 35% and offices of physicians at 11%. Exhibit 6. Fastest growing industries in the four-county area Industry 2016 2021 5-Yr 5-Yr % Services for the Elderly and Persons with Disabilities 31,411 45,574 14,163 45% Elementary and Secondary Schools (Local Government) 67,472 71,854 4,382 6% General Warehousing and Storage 14,061 17,833 3,772 27% Limited-Service Restaurants 29,879 33,214 3,335 11% Temporary Help Services 15,182 17,966 2,784 18% Warehouse Clubs and Supercenters 6,725 9,458 2,733 41% Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools (State Government) 9,118 11,269 2,151 24% Home Health Care Services 4,577 6,467 1,890 41% HMO Medical Centers 5,429 7,304 1,875 35% Offices of Physicians (except Mental Health Specialists) 15,794 17,540 1,746 11% State Government, Excluding Education and Hospitals 11,881 13,592 1,711 14% Full-Service Restaurants 23,932 25,422 1,490 6% Santa Clara County In Santa Clara County, the top three largest industries are also adding the greatest number of jobs in the county. As in the four-county CVML area, warehouse clubs and supercenters, and general warehousing and storage are expected to expand by 35% and 29%, respectively (Exhibit 7). General warehousing and storage will add 636 jobs by 2021, while warehouse clubs and supercenters will add 447. Services for the elderly and persons with disabilities is also the fastest-growing industry in Santa Clara County (45% growth and 2,561 new jobs). Industries associated with health care will undergo robust growth: HMO medical centers (33%, 678 new jobs); home health care services (42%, 593 new jobs); and nursing care facilities (16%, 396 new jobs). MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 9

Exhibit 7. Fastest growing industries in Santa Clara County Industry 2016 2021 5-Yr 5-Yr % Services for the Elderly and Persons with Disabilities 5,661 8,222 2,561 45% Elementary and Secondary Schools (Local Government) 14,757 15,725 968 7% Limited-Service Restaurants 7,186 7,975 789 11% HMO Medical Centers 2,063 2,741 678 33% General Warehousing and Storage 2,228 2,864 636 29% Home Health Care Services 1,417 2,010 593 42% Full-Service Restaurants 5,961 6,528 567 10% Local Government, Excluding Education and Hospitals 8,643 9,157 514 6% Warehouse Clubs and Supercenters 1,243 1,690 447 36% Nursing Care Facilities (Skilled Nursing Facilities) 2,407 2,803 396 16% Wineries 3,369 3,755 386 11% Crop Production 5,581 5,936 355 6% Merced County The fastest growing industry in Merced County is employment placement agencies at 63%, representing the addition of 199 new positions (Exhibit 8). As in the four-county CVML area and Santa Clara County, services for the elderly and persons with disabilities is one of the fastest growing industries in Merced County. This industry will grow by 49% in Merced County, adding 1,184 jobs. This industry is followed by colleges, universities and professional schools, which will expand by 43%, adding the largest number of new jobs, 1,427 by 2021. Crop production, the county s second largest industry, will grow modestly, 9%, adding 568 jobs. Unlike the four-county CVML area and Santa Clara County, health care-related industries are not projected to undergo rapid expansion in Merced County (other than offices of physicians, 12% growth, 139 new jobs). Instead, industries associated with food production, such as fruit and vegetable canning, farm labor contractors and crop harvesting, are expected to grow significantly. Exhibit 8. Fastest growing industries in Merced County Industry 2016 2021 5-Yr 5-Yr % Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools (State Government) 3,300 4,727 1,427 43% Services for the Elderly and Persons with Disabilities 2,441 3,625 1,184 49% Crop Production 6,104 6,672 568 9% Farm Labor Contractors and Crew Leaders 3,365 3,867 502 15% Elementary and Secondary Schools (Local Government) 8,393 8,796 403 5% Limited-Service Restaurants 2,743 2,994 251 9% Warehouse Clubs and Supercenters 692 929 237 34% Employment Placement Agencies 316 515 199 63% Fruit and Vegetable Canning 1,107 1,296 189 17% Offices of Physicians (except Mental Health Specialists) 1,206 1,345 139 12% Crop Harvesting, Primarily by Machine 448 584 136 30% Corporate, Subsidiary, and Regional Managing Offices 1,008 1,138 130 13% MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 10

2016 IN-DEMAND JOBS The Center of Excellence analyzed one year (March 1, 2016 through February 28, 2017) of job posting data for the four-county Central Valley/Mother Lode area, Santa Clara County and Merced County. The following tables show the top 10 jobs for each of the three geographic areas that are the focus of this report. One of the most notable findings is that registered nurses comprise one of the most in-demand jobs in each of the three regions studied. In both the four-county CVML area and Merced County, heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers are the second most sought-after workers, according to job posting data. Four-county CVML Area Registered nurses (10,088 ads) and heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers (6,458 ads) had the greatest number of job postings in the last twelve months in the four-county CVML area. These were followed by sales representatives (4,052 ads), first-line supervisors of retail sales workers (2,418 ads) and customer service representatives (2,313 ads) (Exhibit 9). Exhibit 9. with the most postings in the four-county area SOC Code Occupation Job Postings 29-1141.00 Registered Nurses 10,088 53-3032.00 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 6,458 41-4012.00 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products 4,052 41-1011.00 First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers 2,418 43-4051.00 Customer Service Representatives 2,313 43-3031.00 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 1,793 43-6014.00 Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 1,728 49-9071.00 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 1,471 11-9111.00 Medical and Health Services Managers 1,350 11-9199.00 Managers, All Other 1,336 MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 11

Santa Clara County Software developers (applications) with 26,935 job postings, was the most in-demand occupation in Santa Clara County. This occupation had nearly three times the number of job postings as the next most indemand occupation, registered nurses, which had 9,566 postings. Sales representatives (wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products) followed with 8,001 postings. Managers (all other) totaled 7,196 job postings, and web developers had 5,189 postings (Exhibit 10). Exhibit 10. with the most postings in Santa Clara County SOC Code Occupation Job Postings 15-1132.00 Software Developers, Applications 26,935 29-1141.00 Registered Nurses 9,566 41-4012.00 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products 8,001 11-9199.00 Managers, All Other 7,196 15-1134.00 Web Developers 5,189 41-1011.00 First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers 4,010 43-6014.00 Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 3,814 11-2022.00 Sales Managers 3,661 43-4051.00 Customer Service Representatives 3,048 15-1121.00 Computer Systems Analysts 2,754 MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 12

Merced County As in the four-county CVML area, registered nurses, with 868 job postings, was the most in-demand occupation, followed by heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers, with 761 job postings. First-line supervisors of retails sales workers with 221 job postings and sales representatives (wholesale and manufacturing, except tech and scientific products) with 21 job postings are positions also commonly listed in Merced County (Exhibit 11). Other common job postings include physician assistants (138 postings), teacher assistants (137 postings) and first-line supervisors of food preparation and serving workers (129 postings). Exhibit 11. with the most postings in Merced County SOC Code Occupation Job Postings 29-1141.00 Registered Nurses 868 53-3032.00 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 761 41-1011.00 First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers 221 41-4012.00 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products 219 29-1071.00 Physician Assistants 138 25-9041.00 Teacher Assistants 137 35-1012.00 First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers 129 43-4051.00 Customer Service Representatives 122 49-9071.00 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 117 11-9199.00 Managers, All Other 114 MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 13

IN-DEMAND SKILLS For each of the three areas analyzed by the study, the top skills valued by employers were collected and organized using Burning Glass. Skills were categorized as either baseline, specialized or software related. For each table below, the percentage of postings is based on the number of total postings that indicated a certification as opposed to the total overall number of postings. Four-county CVML Area The top baseline skills for each of the geographic areas studied greatly varied. In the four-county CVML area, the top baseline skills valued by employers were communication skills, writing and physical demand (Exhibit 12). Exhibit 12. Top 10 baseline skills in the four-county area Baseline Skills Job Postings % of Postings Communication Skills 22,163 30% Writing 13,923 19% Physical Demand 10,954 15% Organizational Skills 10,189 14% Computer Skills 8,738 12% English 8,517 12% Problem Solving 7,711 10% Planning 7,668 10% Building Effective Relationships 7,439 10% Team Work/ Collaboration 7,307 10% Specialized skills most sought by employers in the four-county area were customer service, sales and scheduling (Exhibit 13). These skills seem to reinforce the study s finding that customer service representatives comprise the No. 3 top occupation in the area for projected growth. Exhibit 13. Top 10 specialized skills in the four-county area Specialized Skills Job Postings % of Postings Customer Service 12,530 17% Sales 10,311 14% Scheduling 9,404 13% Microsoft Excel 9,397 13% Supervisory Skills 8,449 11% Microsoft Office 6,905 9% Repair 6,083 8% Budgeting 6,018 8% Retail Setting 5,865 8% Teaching 4,963 7% MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 14

Microsoft products software skills dominated the four-county job postings. The most commonly sought software skills were Microsoft Excel, Microsoft Office and Microsoft Word (Exhibit 14). Exhibit 14. Top 10 software skills in the four-county area Software Skills Job Postings % of Postings Microsoft Excel 9,397 13% Microsoft Office 6,905 9% Microsoft Word 4,820 7% Microsoft PowerPoint 2,740 4% Microsoft Outlook 1,336 2% Word Processing 1,167 2% Microsoft Access 944 1% SAP 834 1% SQL 703 1% Microsoft Windows 676 1% Santa Clara County Santa Clara County and Merced County share two top baseline skills: communication skills and writing. The third most desired skill in Santa Clara County is team work/collaboration (Exhibit 15). Exhibit 15. Santa Clara County s top 10 baseline skills Baseline Skills Job Postings % of Postings Communication Skills 86,131 39% Writing 54,397 24% Team Work/ Collaboration 43,173 19% Problem Solving 37,608 17% Planning 29,866 13% Detail-Oriented 29,567 13% Organizational Skills 29,444 13% Research 26,689 12% Creativity 19,556 9% Troubleshooting 19,369 9% MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 15

Customer service, Microsoft Excel and project management comprise the top three specialized skills for Santa Clara County (Exhibit 16). As in the four-county CVML area, customer service, sales and scheduling are highly ranked. Exhibit 16. Santa Clara County s top 10 specialized skills Specialized Skills Job Postings % of Postings Customer Service 29,110 13% Microsoft Excel 28,326 13% Project Management 24,674 11% Scheduling 24,099 11% Sales 22,774 10% JAVA 21,523 10% Python 20,675 9% Budgeting 20,665 9% Microsoft Office 19,195 9% Software Engineering 19,164 9% The top three software skills in Santa Clara County are Microsoft Excel, JAVA and Python (Exhibit 17). Exhibit 17. Santa Clara County s top 10 software skills Software Skills Job Postings % of Postings Microsoft Excel 28,326 13% JAVA 21,523 10% Python 20,675 9% Microsoft Office 19,195 9% LINUX 17,533 8% C++ 14,308 6% SQL 12,941 6% Oracle 12,323 6% Microsoft PowerPoint 12,124 5% JavaScript 11,662 5% MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 16

Merced County As in Santa Clara County, communication skills and writing were among the top baseline skills desired by employers in Merced County. As in the four-county CVML area, physical demand, organizational skills and English were also top desired skills (Exhibit 18). Exhibit 18. Merced County s top 10 baseline skills Baseline Skills Job Postings % of Postings Communication Skills 1,552 30% Writing 1,014 20% Physical Demand 734 14% Organizational Skills 693 13% English 628 12% Problem Solving 534 10% Computer Skills 501 10% Bilingual 486 9% Team Work/ Collaboration 452 9% Planning 441 9% As in both Santa Clara County and the four-county CVML area, customer service, scheduling and sales were the most in-demand specialized skills in Merced County (Exhibit 19). Unlike the other two regions, supervisory skills were more in-demand, falling within the top three most desired specialized skills. Exhibit 19. Merced County s top 10 specialized skills Specialized Skills Job Postings % of Postings Customer Service 725 14% Supervisory Skills 655 13% Scheduling 599 12% Sales 556 11% Teaching 523 10% Microsoft Excel 513 10% Retail Setting 486 9% Repair 410 8% Microsoft Office 368 7% Budgeting 367 7% MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 17

Merced County s top software skills mirrored the four-county CVML area in that Microsoft product software skills dominated the job postings. Microsoft Excel, Microsoft Office and Microsoft Word ranked among the top three most sought skills (Exhibit 20). One software skill not present in the other regions is Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP); however, only 37 job postings mention this skill. Both Merced County and the four-county CVML area have SAP as a top software skill. Exhibit 20. Merced County s top 10 software skills Software Skills Job Postings % of Postings Microsoft Excel 513 10% Microsoft Office 368 7% Microsoft Word 309 6% Microsoft PowerPoint 152 3% Microsoft Outlook 82 2% Word Processing 80 2% SAP 56 1% Microsoft Windows 42 1% Microsoft Access 40 1% Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) 37 1% MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 18

IN-DEMAND CERTIFICATIONS For each of the three areas analyzed by the study, the certifications most in-demand by employers were collected and categorized using Burning Glass. Four-county CVML Area Exhibit 21 shows the top three certifications for the four-county CVML area: registered nurse, CDL Class A (a commercial drivers license) and first aid CPR automated external defibrillator (AED). As mentioned earlier, registered nurses and heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers are the top two occupations for the region and both have strong projected growth. Exhibit 21. CVML area s in-demand certifications Certifications Job Postings % of Postings % of Postings Specifying Certifications REGISTERED NURSE 9,671 8% 28% CDL CLASS A 3,197 3% 9% FIRST AID CPR AED 3,151 3% 9% REAL ESTATE CERTIFICATION 2,638 2% 8% BASIC CARDIAC LIFE SUPPORT CERTIFICATION 1,571 1% 5% COMMERCIAL DRIVER'S LICENSE 1,444 1% 4% CA LICENSE 1,183 1% 3% NURSE PRACTITIONER 1,077 1% 3% BOARD CERTIFIED/BOARD ELIGIBLE 919 1% 3% LICENSED VOCATIONAL NURSE (LVN) 917 1% 3% Santa Clara County As in the four-county CVML area, the registered nurse certification is one of the most highly sought certifications in Santa Clara County. Other top certifications are first aid CPR AED and Certified Public Accountant (Exhibit 22). Another top credential is the Project Management Certification. Exhibit 22. Santa Clara County s in-demand certifications Certifications Job Postings % of Postings % of Postings Specifying Certifications REGISTERED NURSE 9,273 3% 22% FIRST AID CPR AED 3,100 1% 7% CERTIFIED PUBLIC ACCOUNTANT (CPA) 2,674 1% 6% PROJECT MANAGEMENT CERTIFICATION (E.G. PMP) 2,364 1% 6% SECURITY CLEARANCE 1,728 1% 4% BASIC CARDIAC LIFE SUPPORT CERTIFICATION 1,660 1% 4% NURSE PRACTITIONER 1,441 1% 3% REAL ESTATE CERTIFICATION 1,333 0% 3% CDL CLASS A 1,141 0% 3% COMMERCIAL DRIVER'S LICENSE 1,040 0% 2% MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 19

Merced County Merced County s top three certifications are identical to the four-county CVML area: registered nurse, CDL Class A and first aid CPR AED (Exhibit 23). Merced County has registered nurses and heavy and tractortrailer truck drivers within its top four occupations, out of the 25 occupations with strongest projected employment. As in Santa Clara County, nurse practitioner is a top certification in Merced County. Interestingly, Merced County s top certifications are more concentrated in health care than the other regions analyzed by the study. Out of the top 10 certifications for Merced County, four are related to nursing occupations. These four certifications are registered nurse, nurse practitioner, licensed vocational nurse and critical care registered nurse. Exhibit 23. Merced County s in-demand certifications Certifications Job Postings % of Postings % of Postings Specifying Certifications REGISTERED NURSE 803 8% 30% CDL CLASS A 436 4% 16% FIRST AID CPR AED 297 3% 11% CA LICENSE 114 1% 4% NURSE PRACTITIONER 109 1% 4% COMMERCIAL DRIVER'S LICENSE 101 1% 4% ADVANCED CARDIAC LIFE SUPPORT (ACLS) 100 1% 4% CERTIFICATION BOARD CERTIFIED/BOARD ELIGIBLE 93 1% 3% LICENSED VOCATIONAL NURSE (LVN) 81 1% 3% CRITICAL CARE REGISTERED NURSE (CCRN) 78 1% 3% MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 20

EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK In addition to analyzing industry size and growth in the three geographic regions of focus, the study looked at current and projected employment for occupations in the four-county region, Santa Clara County and Merced County. The top 25 occupations with the most annual openings for each area are shown below. Four-county CVML Area The top two occupations in the four-county CVML area mirrored the area s job posting results. With more than 15,000 registered nurses in the region, this occupation is expected to grow by 14%, with 836 annual job openings through 2021 (Exhibit 24). Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers will experience moderate growth at 10%, resulting in 742 annual opening through 2021. The occupation of customer service representatives, also a top occupation among job posting data, will grow by 13%, with 508 annual openings. Other occupations of note include: nursing assistants and home health aides. The nursing assistants occupation will grow by 18%, with 477 annual openings. Meanwhile, the home health aides occupation is projected to grow by a staggering 83%, resulting in 429 annual openings through 2021. Additional health care-related occupations undergoing strong growth include medical assistants at 12%, with 276 annual openings; and licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses at 18%, with 237 annual openings. Other occupations with a high number of annual openings and strong growth rates include: Teacher assistants (7%, 423 annual openings); Industrial truck and tractor operators (11%, 397); Maintenance and repair workers (8%, 358); and Packaging and filling machine operators and tenders (7%, 349). Of the top 25 occupations with a high number of annual openings, only one occupation in the area is projected to decline: childcare workers. This occupation is expected to shrink by 8%, losing 788 positions. However, the childcare workers occupation is still expected to have 269 annual openings through 2021. MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 21

Exhibit 24. Current and projected employment in the four-county area Occupation 2016 5-Yr 5-Yr % s Registered Nurses 15,337 2,191 14% 1,991 836 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 19,844 1,910 10% 1,799 742 Customer Service Representatives 9,748 1,237 13% 1,304 508 Nursing Assistants 7,866 1,385 18% 999 477 Home Health Aides 2,127 1,763 83% 383 429 Teacher Assistants 10,507 765 7% 1,349 423 Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators 8,143 890 11% 1,093 397 Maintenance and Repair Workers, 8,358 635 8% 1,154 358 General Packaging and Filling Machine 6,838 467 7% 1,278 349 Operators and Tenders Secretaries and Administrative 12,837 828 6% 731 312 Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales 8,593 281 3% 1,179 292 Workers Cooks, Restaurant 5,611 626 11% 798 285 First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers 4,989 608 12% 804 282 Medical Assistants 6,028 700 12% 680 276 Childcare Workers 9,507 (788) (8%) 1,344 269 First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers 8,674 641 7% 696 267 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and 7,000 513 7% 778 258 Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products Licensed Practical and Licensed 3,538 620 18% 566 237 Vocational Nurses Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and 3,896 374 10% 533 181 Cosmetologists Agricultural Equipment Operators 4,110 325 8% 577 180 Correctional Officers and Jailers 3,790 322 8% 552 175 Sales Representatives, Services, All 4,377 366 8% 493 172 Other Office and Administrative Support 4,422 211 5% 618 166 Workers, All Other Automotive Service Technicians and 4,645 167 4% 649 163 Mechanics Industrial Machinery Mechanics 2,484 407 16% 358 153 MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 22

Santa Clara County Just as in the four-county CVML area, the occupation of registered nurses ranks No. 1 for the greatest number of annual openings (Exhibit 25). With a growth rate of 14%, the registered nurses occupation will have 806 annual openings in the county. Similar to the four-county CVML region, customer service representatives is another occupation expected to lead all occupations in annual openings. It has a projected 14% growth rate and is expected to add 748 new jobs annually. The occupation of sales representatives ranks third in the county, with a 13% growth rate adding 552 new jobs annually. Silicon Valley s influence on employment growth is apparent in the analysis of the top 25 occupations for Santa Clara County. Several tech-related jobs are expected to undergo strong growth over the next five years: Computer user support specialists has a projected growth rate of 19% and 465 annual openings; Network and computer system administrators has a projected growth rate of 13% and 253 annual openings; and Web developers has a projected growth rate of 28% and 251 annual openings. Occupations related to office work also have positive outlooks: Secretaries and administrative assistants, 9% growth rate and 422 annual openings; First-line supervisors of office and administrative support workers, 9% growth rate and 305 annual openings; Business operations specialists, 7% growth rate and 304 annual openings; Office and administrative support workers, 6% growth rate and 180 annual openings; and Bookkeeping, accounting and auditing clerks, 2% and 158 annual openings. Education-related occupations showing expansion over the next five years include childcare workers, teacher assistants, preschool teachers and self-enrichment education teachers. Unlike the four-county CVML region, none of the top 25 occupations in Santa Clara County are projected to contract in the next five years. MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 23

Exhibit 25. Current and projected employment in Santa Clara County Occupation 2016 5-Yr 5-Yr % s Registered Nurses 14,803 2,101 14% 1,930 806 Customer Service Representatives 13,702 1,895 14% 1,845 748 Sales Representatives, Services, All Other 11,146 1,465 13% 1,294 552 Computer User Support Specialists 8,862 1,675 19% 648 465 Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, 14,905 1,278 9% 833 422 Except Legal, Medical, and Executive Home Health Aides 1,935 1,563 81% 348 382 Cooks, Restaurant 6,186 912 15% 899 362 Childcare Workers 8,156 275 3% 1,497 354 First-Line Supervisors of Food 5,636 771 14% 919 338 Preparation and Serving Workers Nursing Assistants 4,806 954 20% 615 314 First-Line Supervisors of Office and 8,817 811 9% 714 305 Administrative Support Workers Business Operations Specialists, All Other 11,258 815 7% 704 304 Teacher Assistants 7,611 541 7% 958 300 Maintenance and Repair Workers, 7,185 506 7% 986 298 General Network and Computer Systems 6,389 802 13% 464 253 Administrators Web Developers 3,542 983 28% 271 251 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and 6,668 453 7% 729 236 Manufacturing, Technical and Scientific Products Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and 4,409 465 11% 608 215 Cosmetologists Preschool Teachers, Except Special 4,912 269 5% 795 213 Education Medical Assistants 4,349 561 13% 497 212 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and 6,232 343 6% 713 211 Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales 7,014 101 1% 941 208 Workers Office and Administrative Support 4,551 263 6% 636 180 Workers, All Other Self-Enrichment Education Teachers 3,153 533 17% 330 173 Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 11,039 203 2% 587 158 MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 24

Merced County The composition of the top 25 occupations in Merced County differs somewhat from that of the four-county CVML area. As in the four-county area, the heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers occupation takes one of the top slots (Exhibit 26). This occupation has a projected 8% growth rate with 61 annual openings in Merced County. The occupation of teacher assistants ranks second, with a 6% projected growth rate and 52 annual openings. In third place is packaging and filling machine operators and tenders with a 12% projected growth rate and 47 annual openings. In Merced County, there are four occupations related to health care that fall within the top 25 jobs with a strong outlook. They are as follows: Registered nurses, 10% growth, 42 annual openings; Nursing assistants, 17% growth, 32 annual openings; Medical assistants, 10% growth, 23 annual openings and Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses, 15% growth, 16 annual openings. Reflecting the agrarian economic base of the county, several top occupations are agriculture related and will expand over the next five years: Packaging and filling machine operators and tenders, 12% growth, 47 annual openings; Agricultural equipment operators, 16% growth, 41 annual openings; Industrial truck and tractor operators, 9% growth, 36 annual openings; Graders and sorters (agricultural products), 8% growth, 24 annual openings; and Life, physical, and social science technicians, all other (which includes precision agriculture jobs),13% growth, 14 annual openings. However, not all agriculture-related occupations will continue to grow. The occupation of farmers, ranchers and other agricultural managers is projected to contract by 1%, shedding 23 positions. But this occupation will still have 36 annual openings through 2021. for childcare workers will shrink by 17%, resulting in the discontinuing of 111 positions. However, these occupations have 17 annual openings to replace those workers exiting (such as through retirement). MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 25

Exhibit 26. Current and projected employment in Merced County Occupation 2016 5-Yr 5-Yr % s Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 1,817 141 8% 80 61 Teacher Assistants 1,366 87 6% 35 52 Packaging and Filling Machine 749 90 12% 43 47 Operators and Tenders Registered Nurses 933 91 10% 49 42 Agricultural Equipment Operators 678 107 16% 66 41 Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators 805 74 9% 38 36 Farmers, Ranchers, and Other 1,816 (23) (1%) 180 36 Agricultural Managers Maintenance and Repair Workers, 717 72 10% 37 35 General Secretaries and Administrative 1,074 108 10% 74 34 Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive Nursing Assistants 547 92 17% 60 32 Home Health Aides 111 130 117% 99 31 Industrial Machinery Mechanics 458 74 16% 46 28 First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers 531 51 10% 24 27 First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales 740 41 6% 15 26 Workers Office and Administrative Support 415 69 17% 43 26 Workers, All Other Customer Service Representatives 700 35 5% 10 25 Graders and Sorters, Agricultural Products 751 58 8% 34 24 First-Line Supervisors of Office and 723 59 8% 36 23 Administrative Support Workers Medical Assistants 537 54 10% 31 23 Cooks, Institution and Cafeteria 468 34 7% 14 20 Cooks, Restaurant 375 38 10% 20 18 Childcare Workers 659 (111) (17%) 86 17 Life, Physical, and Social Science 235 31 13% 14 17 Technicians, All Other Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and 344 36 10% 19 17 Cosmetologists Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 256 38 15% 22 16 MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 26

WAGES The study identified the top occupational clusters offering the highest wages in each of the three geographic areas of focus (Exhibit 27). By identifying the occupations projected to undergo the most growth and the occupational clusters that offer the best wages, the study aims to shed light on areas that would benefit from educational program expansion or development. Of the three geographic areas, Santa Clara County offers the highest wages, followed by the four-county CVML area. Based on the chart below, Merced County appears to offer the lowest wages. This is likely a reflection of the different costs of living associated with each geographic area. Although the healthcare practitioner and technical cluster is not currently one of the largest clusters by employment for any of the three geographic regions, each has occupations that are projected to undergo robust growth over the next four years. For example, registered nurses will undergo 10% to 14% growth. This occupational cluster offers earnings ranging from an entry-level wage of $23.75/hour in Merced County to an experienced wage of $48.19/hour in Santa Clara County. Occupations related to the computer and mathematical cluster show strong growth projections in Santa Clara County. (Occupations within this cluster do not fall among the top 25 occupations for either Merced County of the four-county CVML area.) In Santa Clara County, hourly wages vary from $28.14 entry level to $47.27 experienced. Within the management cluster, there are several occupations in each of the three geographic regions of focus that are projected to expand by 2021. Wages for these occupations range from $17.36/hour entry level in Merced County to $42.33/hour experienced in Santa Clara County. Occupations projected to undergo robust growth in this cluster include: Secretaries and administrative assistants (four-county CVML area, Merced County, Santa Clara County); Office and administrative support workers (four-county CVML area, Merced County, Santa Clara County); First-line supervisors of office and administrative support workers (four-county CVML area, Merced County, Santa Clara County); and Bookkeeping, auditing and accounting clerks (Merced County, Santa Clara County). The business and financial cluster contains only one occupation among the top 25 projected to expand in the next five years: business operations specialists (Santa Clara County). MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 27

Exhibit 27. Occupational clusters with the highest wages in Santa Clara County, Merced County and the four-county CVML region Santa Clara Merced 4-CVML Counties Occupational Cluster (# of Occupations) Entry Wage Exp. Wage Entry Wage Exp. Wage Entry Wage Exp. Wage Healthcare Practitioners and Technical $28.96 $48.19 $23.75 $35.46 $25.10 $35.26 (24) Computer and Mathematical (6) $28.14 $47.27 $18.99 $25.49 $18.15 $29.23 Management (13) $24.18 $42.33 $17.36 $23.35 $15.84 $24.23 Business and Financial (16) $23.47 $40.92 $18.17 $29.62 $16.25 $28.48 Protective Service (19) $28.31 $40.63 $19.59 $29.81 $19.79 $30.70 Legal (3) $17.95 $32.17 $14.62 $21.44 $16.04 $23.29 Sales and Related (14) $17.58 $32.08 $12.58 $19.06 $12.82 $21.05 Architecture and Engineering (13) $19.66 $30.41 $19.61 $28.31 $17.84 $27.11 Construction and Extraction (47) $17.94 $29.08 $13.84 $20.50 $14.10 $21.07 Life, Physical and Social Science (11) $18.28 $28.03 $15.60 $21.04 $13.23 $20.39 Installation, Maintenance and Repair (48) $16.34 $25.78 $13.31 $21.31 $13.21 $21.12 Farming, Fishing and Forestry (11) $12.60 $24.89 $9.44 $10.57 $9.87 $11.81 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports and $15.76 $24.55 $13.01 $18.07 $12.68 $18.15 Media (26) Office and Administrative Support (37) $15.11 $24.30 $11.41 $17.24 $12.00 $18.04 Transportation and Materials Moving (31) $15.16 $22.35 $12.04 $18.74 $13.06 $19.29 Building and Grounds Cleaning and $13.40 $20.23 $12.05 $16.50 $12.18 $17.07 Maintenance (4) Production (91) $12.04 $18.97 $11.80 $17.29 $11.09 $15.96 Healthcare Support (17) $12.48 $18.74 $10.06 $13.00 $10.62 $14.31 Education, Training and Library (7) $12.57 $18.69 $12.27 $17.57 $11.87 $17.23 Food Preparation and Serving Related (5) $9.57 $14.58 $10.14 $13.55 $9.67 $12.78 Personal Care Services (17) $9.18 $12.93 $8.87 $10.46 $9.41 $11.72 MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 28

CVML Four-county Area Data analysis also addressed wages for the top 10 jobs in each region with the most annual openings. The wages for the top 10 jobs in the four-county area are shown in Exhibit 28. The living wage for one adult in the four-county CVML region is $10.86 per hour. Six out of 10 of these occupations fall below the region s living wage for entry-level positions: nursing assistants, home health aides, teacher assistants, maintenance and repair workers (general), packaging and filling machine operators and tenders, and secretaries and administrative assistants (except legal, medical and executive). The experienced wage of only one occupation home health aides falls below the living wage for the region. The highest paying occupation for experienced workers is registered nurses, $45.93/hour, which is more than double the wage of the second highest paying occupation, maintenance and repair workers, $19.11/hour. Exhibit 28. Wages for occupations with the most job openings in the four-county area Occupation Pct. 10 Hourly Earnings Median Hourly Earnings Registered Nurses $32.67 $45.93 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers $13.05 $18.55 Customer Service Representatives $11.00 $16.64 Nursing Assistants $9.98 $13.19 Home Health Aides $9.26 $10.64 Teacher Assistants $10.67 $14.87 Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators $11.48 $17.11 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General $10.67 $19.11 Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders $9.59 $13.84 Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical and Executive $10.36 $16.56 MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 29

Santa Clara County As in the four-county region, the wages for registered nurses exceed those of the top 10 occupations with the greatest number of job openings in Santa Clara County. Entry-level registered nurses can expect to earn $34.96 per hour while experienced nurses earn $62.46 per hour (Exhibit 29). It should be noted the experienced wage for registered nurses in Santa Clara County far exceeds the experienced wage of registered nurses in the four-county region, $45.93. The living wage for one adult in the county is $15.71 per hour, and the entry-level wages of seven of the top 10 occupations in the county fall below this number: customer service representatives, secretaries and administrative assistants (except legal, medical and executive), home health aides, cooks (restaurant), childcare workers, first-line supervisors of food preparation and serving workers, and nursing assistants. This suggests that workers in these occupations cannot afford to live in the county and would need to commute from outside the county. Four occupations have experienced wages that fall below the county s living wage: home health aides, cooks (restaurant), childcare workers and nursing assistants. Santa Clara County differs from the other two regions in having so many top 10 occupations with experienced wages that fall below the county s living wage. Merced County does not have any, and the four-county area only has one. In addition to registered nurses, several occupations pay strong experienced wages, such as sales representative ($35.98 per hour) and computer user support specialists ($36.39 per hour). Exhibit 29. Wages for occupations with the most job openings in Santa Clara County Occupation Pct. 10 Hourly Earnings Median Hourly Earnings Registered Nurses $34.96 $62.46 Customer Service Representatives $12.14 $21.14 Sales Representatives, Services, All Other $17.87 $35.98 Computer User Support Specialists $19.41 $36.39 Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical and Executive $13.19 $21.08 Home Health Aides $9.37 $11.79 Cooks, Restaurant $9.34 $12.89 Childcare Workers $8.07 $11.11 First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers $9.95 $16.14 Nursing Assistants $11.83 $14.53 MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 30

Merced County The living wage for one adult in Merced County is $10.26 per hour. The entry-level wages of four of the top 10 occupations with the most projected openings in Merced County fall below the living wage: packaging and filling machine operators and tenders, agricultural equipment operators, secretaries and administrative assistants (except legal, medical and executive), and nursing assistants (Exhibit 30). As in Santa Clara County and the four-county region, registered nurses earn the highest wages of the 10 occupations with the most job openings: $30.89 as an entry-level hourly wage and $46.11 for an experienced hourly wage. The experienced wage for registered nurses is more than double the wages of next two top-earning occupations in the county. Farmers, ranchers and other agricultural managers rank second highest ($21.08 per hour), and maintenance and repair workers rank third ($20.20). None of the experienced wages for the top 10 occupations in Merced County fall below the county s living wage. Exhibit 30. Wages for occupations with the most job openings in Merced County Occupation Pct. 10 Hourly Earnings Median Hourly Earnings Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers $11.57 $17.50 Teacher Assistants $10.76 $15.59 Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders $10.00 $15.87 Registered Nurses $30.89 $46.11 Agricultural Equipment Operators $9.01 $10.16 Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators $11.99 $19.54 Farmers, Ranchers and Other Agricultural Managers $16.47 $21.08 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General $10.95 $20.20 Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical and Executive $10.02 $16.79 Nursing Assistants $9.56 $11.94 MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 31

EDUCATIONAL TRAINING The study also took a close look at the typical educational requirements for middle-skill jobs in the fourcounty region, Merced County and Santa Clara County. Middle-skill jobs require some college or an associate degree, but less than a bachelor s degree. CVML Four-county Area Exhibit 31 shows the typical entry-level education, typical on-the-job training and percent of workers in the specific occupation who possess an associate degree or some college coursework. A majority of the region s top 25 jobs require either a postsecondary nondegree award, or a high school diploma combined with some form of on-the job training. While a fair number of occupations require a postsecondary nondegree award, none requires an associate degree. Exhibit 31. Typical educational attainment for the top 25 jobs in the four-county region Occupation Typical Entry-Level Education (BLS) Typical On-The-Job Training (BLS) % of Current Workers with Associate Degree or Some College Coursework (CPS) Registered Nurses Bachelor's degree None 42.1% Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers Customer Service Representatives Nursing Assistants Home Health Aides Teacher Assistants Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators Maintenance and Repair Workers, General Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers Cooks, Restaurant First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers Medical Assistants Childcare Workers Postsecondary nondegree award High school diploma or equivalent Postsecondary nondegree award No formal educational credential Some college, no degree No formal educational credential High school diploma or equivalent High school diploma or equivalent High school diploma or equivalent High school diploma or equivalent No formal educational credential High school diploma or equivalent Postsecondary nondegree award High school diploma or equivalent Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training 28.3% 43.7% None 41.7% Short-term on-the-job training 41.7% None 43.7% Short-term on-the-job training Long-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training 24.2% 38.2% 18.6% 47.5% None 38.1% Moderate-term on-the-job training 23.4% None 37.9% None 65% Short-term on-the-job training 36.7% MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 32

First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists Agricultural Equipment Operators Correctional Officers and Jailers Sales Representatives, Services, All Other Office and Administrative Support Workers, All Other Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics Industrial Machinery Mechanics High school diploma or equivalent High school diploma or equivalent Postsecondary nondegree award Postsecondary nondegree award No formal educational credential High school diploma or equivalent High school diploma or equivalent High school diploma or equivalent Postsecondary nondegree award High school diploma or equivalent None 40.8% Moderate-term on-the-job training 31.6% None 74.1% None 41.6% Short-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Long-term on-the-job training 12.7% 52.4% 34.3% 42.7% 33.4% 41.7% Santa Clara County A high percentage of Santa Clara County s top occupations require a high school diploma combine with some form of on-the-job training (Exhibit 32). This is the case for customer service representatives, sales representatives (services, all other), secretaries and administrative assistants (except legal, medical and executive) and childcare workers. Only one occupation in the top 25 requires an associate degree: web developers. Occupations requiring some college preparation include computer user support specialists, nursing assistants and medical assistants. Exhibit 32. Typical educational attainment for the top 25 jobs in Santa Clara County Occupation Typical Entry-Level Education (BLS) Typical On-The-Job Training (BLS) % of Current Workers with Associate Degree or Some College Coursework (CPS) Registered Nurses Bachelor's degree None 42.1% Customer Service Representatives Sales Representatives, Services, All Other Computer User Support Specialists Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive Home Health Aides High school diploma or equivalent High school diploma or equivalent Some college, no degree High school diploma or equivalent No formal educational credential Short-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training 43.7% 34.3% None 45.2% Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training 47.5% 41.7% MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 33

Cooks, Restaurant Childcare Workers First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers Nursing Assistants First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers Business Operations Specialists, All Other Teacher Assistants Maintenance and Repair Workers, General No formal educational credential High school diploma or equivalent High school diploma or equivalent Postsecondary nondegree award High school diploma or equivalent Moderate-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training 23.4% 36.7% None 37.9% None 41.7% None 40.8% Bachelor's degree None 27.9% Some college, no degree High school diploma or equivalent None 43.7% Long-term on-the-job training 38.2% Network and Computer Systems Administrators Bachelor's degree None 39.5% Web Developers Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Technical and Scientific Products Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists Associate degree None 27.2% Bachelor's degree Postsecondary nondegree award Moderate-term on-the-job training 31.6% None 41.6% Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education Associate degree None 37.8% Medical Assistants Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers Office and Administrative Support Workers, All Other Self-Enrichment Education Teachers Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks Postsecondary nondegree award High school diploma or equivalent High school diploma or equivalent High school diploma or equivalent High school diploma or equivalent Some college, no degree None 65% Moderate-term on-the-job training 31.6% None 38.1% Short-term on-the-job training 42.7% None 26.7% Moderate-term on-the-job training 48.8% MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 34

Merced County In Merced County, only one of the top 25 occupations requires an associate degree: life, physical and social science technicians, all other (Exhibit 33). Nearly 34% of workers in this occupation have completed an associate degree or some college coursework. Occupations that require a postsecondary nondegree include heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers, nursing assistants, medical assistants, and licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses. Exhibit 33. Typical educational attainment for the top 25 jobs in Merced County Occupation Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers Teacher Assistants Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders Typical Entry-Level Education (BLS) Postsecondary nondegree award Some college, no degree High school diploma or equivalent Typical On-The-Job Training (BLS) Short-term on-the-job training % of Current Workers with Associate Degree or Some College Coursework (CPS) 28.3% None 43.7% Moderate-term on-the-job training 18.6% Registered Nurses Bachelor's degree None 42.1% Agricultural Equipment Operators Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers Maintenance and Repair Workers, General Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive Nursing Assistants Home Health Aides Industrial Machinery Mechanics First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers Office and Administrative Support Workers, All Other Customer Service Representatives Graders and Sorters, Agricultural Products First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers No formal educational credential No formal educational credential High school diploma or equivalent High school diploma or equivalent High school diploma or equivalent Postsecondary nondegree award No formal educational credential High school diploma or equivalent High school diploma or equivalent High school diploma or equivalent High school diploma or equivalent High school diploma or equivalent No formal educational credential High school diploma or equivalent Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training 12.7% 24.2% None 28.9% Long-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training 38.2% 47.5% None 41.7% Short-term on-the-job training Long-term on-the-job training 41.7% 41.7% None 37.9% None 38.1% Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training Short-term on-the-job training 42.7% 43.7% 11.7% None 40.8% MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 35

Medical Assistants Cooks, Institution and Cafeteria Cooks, Restaurant Life, Physical, and Social Science Technicians, All Other Childcare Workers Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses Postsecondary nondegree award No formal educational credential No formal educational credential None 65% Short-term on-the-job training Moderate-term on-the-job training 23.4% 23.4% Associate degree None 33.9% High school diploma or equivalent Postsecondary nondegree award Postsecondary nondegree award Short-term on-the-job training 36.7% None 41.6% None 74.1% MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 36

COMMUNITY COLLEGE SUPPLY The study cataloged available relevant education and training programs that prepare students to enter jobs related to the occupational clusters identified earlier in this report. The supply of community college students provides a picture of how postsecondary institutions are meeting employer demand for qualified employees. Community colleges can use the following analysis as they work toward developing new programs or tailor existing programs to specifically target employer needs. To quantify the available education and training programs through community colleges, programs relevant to the top 25 occupations were identified for this section of the report using Taxonomy of Programs (TOP) codes. (Please refer to Appendix E which includes more detailed data concerning community college supply.) Four-county CVML Area Analysis of community college supply data for the four-county CVML region shows that community colleges are conferring awards for those 25 occupations that have the highest annual projected openings; but it appears that several have an insufficient number of completers or no completers. To meet projected demand, new programs or additional completions are needed in several areas. Some of those include, but are not limited to, educational aide (teacher assistant), registered nurse, licensed vocational nurse, home health aide, and nursing assistant (Exhibit 34). MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 37

Top 6 Exhibit 34. Community college supply in the four-county CVML region Top Program Area 2013-16 Avg. CC Awards 2012-15 Avg. Other Awards Overall 3-Yr Average 010200 Animal Science 25-25 010300 Plant Science 31-31 010900 Horticulture 14-14 011200 Agriculture Business, Sales and Service 66-66 050200 Accounting 151 112 263 050600 Business Management 59-59 050800 International Business and Trade 2-2 050900 Marketing and Distribution 11-11 051400 Office Technology/Office Computer Applications 144 172 316 080200 Educational Aide (Teacher Assistant) 34-34 080900 Special Education 0-0 094700 Diesel Technology 10-10 094720 Heavy Equipment Maintenance 24-24 094730 Heavy Equipment Operation 6-6 094800 Automotive Technology 146-146 120800 Medical Assisting 45 1,521 1,565 120810 Clinical Medical Assisting 15-15 123010 Registered Nursing 571-571 123020 Licensed Vocational Nursing 52 175 227 123030 Certified Nurse Assistant 98-98 130500 Child Development/Early Care and Education 635 14 649 130550 The School Age Child 38-38 130620 Dietetic Services and Management 4-4 130630 Culinary Arts 48 308 356 130710 Restaurant and Food Services and Management 1-1 130900 Gerontology 2-2 210510 Corrections 37 11 48 300700 Cosmetology and Barbering - 976 976 MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 38

Santa Clara County Santa Clara County is graduating students in health sector areas of need, but is not conferring enough awards to meet demand for registered nurses and home health aides (Exhibit 35). It appears too few awards are being conferred in many other areas, including: sales and salesmanship; computer information systems or computer support; office technology/office computer applications; child development/early care and education; culinary arts; hospitality; and restaurant and food services management. Exhibit 35. Community college supply in Santa Clara County Top 6 Top Program Area 2013-16 Avg. CC Awards 2012-15 Avg. Other Awards Overall 3-Yr Average 050630 Management Development and Supervision 0-0 050650 Retail Store Operations and Management 1-1 050800 International Business and Trade 3-3 050900 Marketing and Distribution 24-24 050940 Sales and Salesmanship 2-2 051400 Office Technology/Office Computer Applications 17 21 38 051440 Office Management 3-3 061430 Website Design and Development 9 4 13 070200 Computer Information Systems 6-6 070600 Computer Science (Transfer) 21-21 070700 Computer Software Development 0-0 070710 Computer Programming 54-54 070800 Computer Infrastructure and Support 1-1 070900 World Wide Web Administration 3-3 070910 E-Commerce (Technology emphasis) - - - 080900 Special Education 7-7 083520 Fitness Trainer 3-3 094500 Industrial Systems Technology and Maintenance 9-9 120800 Medical Assisting 37 402 439 120810 Clinical Medical Assisting 38-38 123010 Registered Nursing 169-169 123030 Certified Nurse Assistant 0 53 53 123080 Home Health Aide 32-32 130500 Child Development/Early Care and Education 206 23 229 130550 The School Age Child 0-0 130630 Culinary Arts - 199 199 130700 Hospitality 8-8 130710 Restaurant and Food Services and Management 26 56 83 300700 Cosmetology and Barbering 156 417 574 MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 39

Merced County Based on the analysis of community college supply in Merced County, it appears that community colleges are exceeding employer demand in the health cluster, and meeting demand in the agriculture sector. However, demand in the following areas is likely not being met: food processing and related technologies; automotive technology; and childhood development/early care and education (Exhibit 36). Considering commuting patterns, there is a strong probability that graduates are filling in-demand areas in one or more of the other four counties where workers are commuting. It appears Merced County community colleges need to increase the number of graduates in the areas of culinary arts, restaurant and food services management. There is also unmet demand in several other areas: management development and supervision, office technology/office computer applications, customer service, consumer services, and industrial systems technology and maintenance. Top 6 Top Program Area Exhibit 36. Community college supply in Merced County 2013-16 Avg. CC Awards 2012-15 Avg. Other Awards Overall 3-Yr Average 010100 Agriculture Technology and Sciences, General 3 3 010200 Animal Science 6 6 010240 Equine Science - - 010300 Plant Science 2 2 010900 Horticulture 8 8 011200 Agriculture Business, Sales and Service 16 16 011600 Agricultural Power Equipment Technology 40 40 050200 Accounting 25 25 050630 Management Development and Supervision 3 3 050650 Retail Store Operations and Management - - 051400 Office Technology/Office Computer Applications 28 28 094500 Industrial Systems Technology and Maintenance 2 2 094800 Automotive Technology 21 21 120800 Medical Assisting - 30 30 123010 Registered Nursing 53 53 130500 Child Development/Early Care and Education 51 51 130630 Culinary Arts 9 9 MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 40

CONCLUSION & RECOMMENDATIONS The Central Valley/Mother Lode Center of Excellence analyzed state and federal data to determine labor market demand, projected occupational growth and educational supply for three areas of focus: the four-county region comprising Fresno, Merced, San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties; Merced County separately; and Santa Clara County. This study focused on occupations particularly relevant to community college programs, those considered middle-skill jobs. These jobs typically require some college preparation or an associate degree, but less than a bachelor s degree. The study determined that a large number of Merced county workers are commuting from the Los Banos area to the Bay Area. Commuters are primarily traveling to Santa Clara County, followed by Stanislaus, Fresno and San Joaquin counties. In analyzing these three distinct geographical areas, the study determined that some commonalities are shared. For example, the two largest occupational clusters for all three areas are production, and office and administrative support. However, transportation and materials moving, and installation, maintenance and repair are occupational clusters that comprise larger shares of jobs for Merced County and the fourcounty region than Santa Clara County. Elementary and secondary schools (local government) and local government (excluding education and hospitals) comprise two of the top industries with the most jobs for the four-county region, Merced County and Santa Clara County. However, while crop production is also a top industry for Merced County and the four-county region, it is not for Santa Clara County, whose restaurants and general medical and surgical hospitals industries take precedence. Current and projected employment for all occupations analyzed for each region are included in Appendix F. Key Findings and Recommendations: Community colleges in Merced County may want to consider expanding program development to meet the needs of the industry encompassing services for the elderly and persons with disabilities. This is the No. 1 fastest growing industry in the four-county area and Santa Clara County and ranks only second to colleges, universities and professional schools in Merced County. This industry is expected to create nearly 18,000 jobs over the next five years across all three regions. Job posting data can be particularly helpful in determining the areas in which hiring in occurring and the types of training that will be most useful for community college students. The occupation of registered nurses ranked first in the four-county area and Merced County for most job postings, followed by heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers. Registered nurses ranked second in Santa Clara County in job posting analysis. It should also be noted, the most in-demand certification for all three regions is registered nurse, and this occupation pays some of the highest wages of all occupations analyzed. With more than 15,000 registered nurses in the four-county region, this occupation is expected to grow by 14%, with 836 annual job openings. Across all three geographic areas studied, there were a significant number of postings for first-line supervisors of retail sales workers, sales representatives and customer service representatives. Skills most in-demand by employers varied considerably across regions. The skills most highly sought in Santa Clara County involve customer service, project management and scheduling. In-demand software skills in Santa Clara County are much more technical than in the other two regions, with JAVA, Python and Linux being frequently cited by job postings, in addition to Microsoft Excel. Merced County and the four-county region share top in-demand baseline skills communication skills, writing and MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 41

physical demand. They also share customer service and sales as common preferred specialized skills, and Microsoft Word and Excel as preferred software skills. Aside from registered nurse certifications, in-demand certifications include CDL Class A and First Aid CPR AED for both Merced County and the four-county region. Commonly requested certifications in Santa Clara County include Certified Public Accountant and project management certification. If community colleges are preparing students who are likely to seek employment in Santa Clara County, then programs may want to give attention toward these two types of certifications. In addition to registered nurses, occupations with strong projected growth in the four-county region include: heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers (10%, 742 annual openings); customer service representatives, (13%, 508 annual openings); nursing assistants (18%, 477 annual openings); and home health aides (83%, 429 annual openings). Community colleges targeting growing occupations in Santa Clara County may want to tailor programs to the following occupations: customer service representatives (14% growth, 748 annual openings); sales representatives (13%, 552 annual openings); computer user support specialists (19%, 465 annual openings); network and computer system administrators (13%, 253 annual openings); and web developers (28%, 251 annual openings). Santa Clara County also has a positive outlook for office workers, such as secretaries and administrative assistants, first-line supervisors of office workers, business operations specialists and office and administrative support workers. In Merced County, the occupations with the most projected openings aside from registered nurses are: heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers (8% growth, 61 annual openings); teacher assistants (6%, 52 annual openings); and packaging and filling machine operators and tenders (12%, 43 annual openings). The occupations related to the computer and mathematical occupational cluster in Santa Clara County are projected to undergo strong growth and offer wages that are higher than many other occupations studied for the three areas. A number of these occupations are middle-skill jobs that offer strong earning potential. After registered nurses in Merced County, farmers, ranchers and other agricultural managers earn the second highest experienced wage ($21.08 per hour), and maintenance and repair workers rank third ($20.20). None of the experienced wages for the top 10 occupations in Merced County fall below the county s living wage. Merced County s community colleges may want to consider giving attention toward increasing the number of graduates in the areas of culinary arts; management development and supervision; office technology/office computer applications; customer service; consumer services; and industrial systems technology and maintenance. MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 42

APPENDIX A: METHODOLOGY & DATA SOURCES Methodology This report identifies occupations that are relevant to the California Community Colleges. Occupations can be identified using the federal Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) system, while related educational programs can be found using Taxonomy of Programs (TOP) codes. A TOP-SOC crosswalk can be used to identify education programs that are directly related to specific occupations. Data Sources Labor market and educational supply data compiled in this report derive from a variety of sources. Data were drawn from external sources, including the Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc., the California Community Colleges Chancellor s Office Management Information Systems Data Mart and the National Center for Educational Statistics (NCES) Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). Below is the summary of the data sources found in this study. Data Type Community College Awards Labor Market Information Living Wage Private Education Awards Typical Education Level and On-the-job Training Additional Education Requirements/ Employer Preferences Source California Community College Chancellor s Office Data Mart. The program awards module provides all credit degrees and certificates (from 6 to 60 semester units) that have been reported to the Chancellor s Office: datamart.cccco.edu. Economic Modeling Specialists, Intl. (EMSI). EMSI occupational employment data are based on final EMSI industry data and final EMSI staffing patterns. Wage estimates are based on Occupational Employment Statistics (QCEW and Non-QCEW Employees classes of worker) and the American Community Survey (Self-Employed and Extended Proprietors). Occupational wage estimates also affected by county-level EMSI earnings by industry: economicmodeling.com. A living wage calculator that estimates the cost of living in a specific community or region: livingwage.mit.edu. National Center for Educational Statistics (NCES) Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). It includes all credit degrees and certificates (from less than one year to four years) that have been reported to IPEDS. Higher education institutions are required to report completion data to NCES if they participate in any federal financial assistance program authorized by Title IV of the Higher Education Act: nces.ed.gov/ipeds. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) uses a system to assign categories for entry-level education and typical on-the-job training to each occupation for which BLS publishes projections data: www.bls.gov/emp/ep_education_tech.htm. The O*NET Job Zone database includes over 900 occupations as well as information on skills, abilities, knowledges, work activities and interests associated with specific occupations: www.onetonline.org MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 43

Key Terms and Concepts Job : openings are calculated by dividing the number of years in the projection period by total job openings. Education Attainment Level: The highest education attainment level of workers age 25 years or older. Employment Estimate: The total number of workers currently employed. Employment Projections: Projections of employment are calculated by a proprietary Economic Modeling Specialists, Intl. (EMSI) formula that includes historical employment and economic indicators along with national, state and local trends. Living Wage: The cost of living in a specific community or region for one adult and no children. The cost increases with the addition of children. Occupation: An occupation is a grouping of job titles that have a similar set of activities or tasks that employees perform. Percent : Rate of growth or decline in the occupation for the projected period; this does not factor in replacement openings. s: Estimate of job openings resulting from workers retiring or otherwise permanently leaving an occupation. Workers entering an occupation often need training. These replacement needs, added to job openings due to growth, may be used to assess the minimum number of workers who will need to be trained for an occupation. Total Job (New + s): Sum of projected growth (new jobs) and replacement needs. When an occupation is expected to lose jobs or retain the current employment level, number of openings will equal replacements. Typical Education Requirement: represents the typical education level most workers need to enter an occupation. Typical On-The-Job Training: indicates the typical on-the-job training needed to attain competency in the skills needed in the occupation. MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 44

APPENDIX B: MERCED COUNTY COMMUTING PATTERN MIDDLE-SKILL JOBS: FRESNO, MERCED, SAN JOAQUIN, SANTA CLARA AND STANISLAUS COUNTIES 45