Afghanistan Institution Building Center for Technology and National Security Policy National Defense University Dr. Mike Baranick Ms. Taylor Wilkinson
Overview Approaches Top-Down Bottom-Up Hybrid: Middle-Outward Provincial/District Level Involvement Paktia Province Nawa District How to measure and assess effectiveness of programs Tactical Conflict Assessment Planning Framework TCAPF
Bottom Up Strengths Local community involvement / empowers locals Accounts for needs of locals Capacity Building Weaknesses Long time No connection to national government Rift develops Fragments relationships / creates friction
Top Down Strengths Centrally managed / empowers central government Easier management / ministerial level Host-Nation Ownership Weaknesses Disconnect between National and Local levels what people want vs. what government provides out of sync supply-driven Graft / Corruption Example: Somalia and Somaliland
Middle Outward Province P District D D Village V V V V Understanding Afghan popular perceptions at the province, district, and local level is critical and usually ignored in official reporting.success in the area must be based on Afghan terms and values and the focal point for all activity must be the impact on Afghan perceptions and attitudes. -- CSIS Af-Pak report (2008)
Middle Outward Strengths Bridges gap between national government and local population This approach will enhance the following principles of stabilization and reconstruction: Capacity Building Sustainability/Enduring Host Nation Ownership Accountability Legitimacy of Local Authorities Results Direct impact to locals Reduces Corruption Flexibility Selectivity Increased Security Weaknesses Requires More Resources Time Commitment requires building relationships; trust; Confidence with local community
Middle Outward Capacity Building & Sustainability Strengthen local institutions Transfer technical skills/knowledge Acquire long-term ability to: establish/promote effective policies deliver competent public services Example: USAID Education Programs Design programs to ensure impact endures Services have lasting effect? Examples: Kajaki Dam Success Electricity vs. Diesel Generator Host-Nation Ownership Build on leadership, participation & commitment of country/ppl View local construction belonging to them address needs of community As result: 1. Community invest itself in project 2. Locals maintain & expand project enduring
Middle Outward Accountability & Legitimacy of Local Authorities Implement transparent and accountable programs Enhances legitimacy in eyes of population Visible involvement of local authorities increases trust & confidence of Afghans in their government Results & Direct Impact to Local People Resources directed to achieve: clearly defined, measurable, strategically focused objectives Reduces disconnect between what locals need and what is provided Resources allocated based on need, local commitment
Provincial Middle-Outward Paktia Province LTC Dan Moy, USAF, Paktia PRT Commander The challenge is helping people see how this new government here is going to really meet their needs where they are LTC Moy Zormat District Education Center help connect people to, and build public confidence in, the Afghanistan government LTC Moy Gardez City Road Construction Khost Province Paktia Province Road Construction Building roads that connect the villages to the government and the services it provides is one way to reinforce support for the government of the region LTC MOY Nawa District Helmand Province 1 st Battalion, 5 th Marines Nuristan and Kunar Provinces 1 st Squadron, 91 st Cavalry Regiment Logar Province 3 rd Squadron, 71 st Cavalry Regiment
Tactical Conflict Assessment and Planning Framework (TCAPF) Implementation USAID, 2006 create local stabilization plans to assist commanders and their staffs identify causes of instability, develop activities to diminish or mitigate them, and evaluate the effectiveness of the activities in fostering stability at the tactical level (provincial or local). FM 3-07 Stability Operations Recommended in ISAF COIN Training Guidance, Nov 2009 Recommended by USFOR-A for all deploying units, Sept 2009 Included in Army Doctrine, Field Manual 3-07 Stability Operations
Tactical Conflict Assessment and Planning Framework (TCAPF) - Methodology Implementation Implement Activity Evaluation Measure Impact Assess Select Data Sources Measure POPULATION See Collect / Log Local Perceptions Design Determine Output Indicators Identify Activities Act Select Data Sources Understand Determine Impact Indicators Identify & Prioritize Objectives Analysis Source: U.S.A.I.D
Tactical Conflict Assessment and Planning Framework (TCAPF) - Collection 4 Questions 1. Has the population of the village changed in the last 12 months? Population movement indicator of changes in relative stability 2. What are the greatest problems facing the village? Prioritize and focus activities appropriately Empowers people to take ownership of overall process 3. Who is trusted to resolve problems? Ids individual/institutions trusted to resolve issues Provides indication of level of support for host nation government 4. What should be done first to help the village? Local populace prioritize problems Helps affirm ownership Source: U.S.A.I.D.
Tactical Conflict Assessment and Planning Framework (TCAPF) - Database Source: U.S.A.I.D.
Tactical Conflict Assessment and Planning Framework (TCAPF) - Analysis Source: U.S.A.I.D.
Tactical Conflict Assessment and Planning Framework (TCAPF) - Design Does each activity: Increase support for the government? Decrease support for individuals or groups causing instability? Increase institutional and societal capability and capacity? Source: U.S.A.I.D.
Tactical Conflict Assessment and Planning Framework (TCAPF) Measure and Assessment Source: U.S.A.I.D.
Tactical Conflict Assessment and Planning Framework (TCAPF) Measure and Assessment Provincial Stability Report 400 350 Indexed Value 300 250 200 150 100 50 Factor 1: Night road movement Factor 2: Government legitimacy Factor 3: Public security concerns Factor 4: Population leaving home for security Factor 5: Enemy activity Factor 6: Afghan civilian casualties Factor 7: AAF intimidation of GIRoA Overall: Average of all 7 Factors 0 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Month Source: U.S.A.I.D.
Tactical Conflict Assessment and Planning Framework (TCAPF) In Use 4 th Civil Affairs Group, Regimental Combat Team 3 (RCT-3) TCAPF should be kept at a local level Sgt Scott M. Spaulding able to get to root causes of instability not just surface uncomplicated any Marine of any rank can gather information Our goal is to go out and see what the problems are in the eyes of the locals Petty Officer 2 nd Class William L. Lowry able to direct resources to address most significant problem Since the local populace is a center of gravity in a [COIN] operation, this tool helps us focus on that, which is the people Lt. Col. Leonard J. DeFrancisci
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