San Francisco Transportation Plan Update CAC Meeting #9 September 19 th, 2012 www.sfcta.org/movesmartsf twitter.com/sanfranciscota www.facebook.com/movesmartsf
Process for Developing the Preferred Alternative Total Available Funding $64.3B State of Good Repair Needs Programs DRAFT Financially Constrained Plan Public Feedback Ranked Projects Draft Vision Scenario (Potential New Revenues) FINAL ADOPTED PLAN Final Vision Scenario www.sfcta.org/movesmartsf twitter.com/sanfranciscota www.facebook.com/movesmartsf 2
Evaluating Project Performance Ranking according to cost effectiveness in Plan goal areas POTENTIAL PROJECTS 2004 Countywide Plan Vision Scenarios Approved Plans & Projects Public Input & Call for Projects Project Performance Evaluation Plan Goal Areas (Benefit Score) Project Cost Additional Considerations www.sfcta.org/movesmartsf twitter.com/sanfranciscota www.facebook.com/movesmartsf 3
Development of Approach including ongoing outreach November 2011 Agency and Public Call for Projects results Outreach survey results Draft revenue estimate Draft project performance evaluation framework February 2012 Revised project performance evaluation framework May 2012 Revised revenue estimate Framework for developing preferred alternative September 2012 Draft project performance evaluation results October 2012 Outreach round on developing preferred alternative www.sfcta.org/movesmartsf twitter.com/sanfranciscota www.facebook.com/movesmartsf 4
Benefit Score Components Metric Market Score Problem Score Effect Score Total Score Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Motorized Travel Time Non-Auto Mode Share Transit Crowding Total 1 to 3 1 to 3-1 to 2 GHG Score 1 to 3 1 to 3-1 to 2 Travel Time Score 1 to 3 1 to 3-1 to 2 Mode Share Score 1 to 3 1 to 3-1 to 2 Crowding Score Project Benefit Score www.sfcta.org/movesmartsf twitter.com/sanfranciscota www.facebook.com/movesmartsf 5
Cost Score Components Annualized Project Cost based on: 1. Capital cost divided by project life - Cost submitted by agencies if available or estimated per unit - Estimates of project life by type 2. Annual transit operating cost* - Average cost per revenue-hour by agency and mode - Change in revenue hours based on modeled travel time and headways Example Project Component Cost ($m) Total Capital Cost 134 Project Life (yrs) 20 Annualized Capital 6.7 Annual Operating - Total Annualized Cost 6.7 * Note: maintenance costs for all projects excluded. www.sfcta.org/movesmartsf twitter.com/sanfranciscota www.facebook.com/movesmartsf 6
Benefit-Cost Index Benefit Score/Cost ($m) x 10 = Benefit-Cost Index Provides a rough index of project benefits in terms of meeting SFTP goal areas per dollar Not intended to be a comprehensive evaluation of project merit Other Considerations also apply: Equity Operational benefits Support for Priority Development Areas (PDAs) Safety Component Index Benefit Score 6 Annualized Cost ($m) Benefit-Cost Index Example Project 6.7 9 www.sfcta.org/movesmartsf twitter.com/sanfranciscota www.facebook.com/movesmartsf 7
Project Identification and Initial Screening Project sources: Agency and Public responses to RTP and SFTP Calls for Projects, Spring and Summer 2011 Summer 2011 public outreach surveys Transportation sector studies and plans; approved Area Plans Prop K Expenditure Plan SFMTA Capital Plan Analysis of SFTP Aspirational Scenarios and Baseline Needs www.sfcta.org/movesmartsf twitter.com/sanfranciscota www.facebook.com/movesmartsf 8
Initial Project Screening ~140 unique project or program proposals received Projects not included in evaluation: Baseline projects (e.g., Caltrain electrification, Central Subway) (16) Previously evaluated and screened (e.g., Balboa Park freeway deck, Van Ness Avenue subways) (3) Policy changes (7) Programmatic improvements (half of all submittals) Relatively low project cost; features/location undefined; or not modelable Cycletracks, bike lanes, bike parking Sidewalk widening, pedestrian improvements Traffic calming www.sfcta.org/movesmartsf twitter.com/sanfranciscota www.facebook.com/movesmartsf 9
Projects Evaluated Total of ~$13B in projects evaluated (excluding BART tube) Total discretionary revenues: $3.14B * Capital and operating costs included ** Excludes new BART tube Project Type Total Cost * ($M) Congestion / Demand Management Freeway / Arterial Capacity Change $268 $527 Transit Access $1,028 New or Extended Transit Line (all modes)** $4,468 Transit Service Increase $4,564 Transit Speed / Reliability Upgrade $2,205 Total $13,060 www.sfcta.org/movesmartsf twitter.com/sanfranciscota www.facebook.com/movesmartsf 10
Benefit-Cost Proxy Score Tiers Four Tiers High > 4 OR > 2.5 and in top third of Benefit Scores Middle-High > 1.5 Low-Middle > 0 Low = 0 Tiers defined by natural breaks www.sfcta.org/movesmartsf twitter.com/sanfranciscota www.facebook.com/movesmartsf 11
Benefit-Cost Proxy Index Top Tier Listed alphabetically Projects with Highest Benefit-Cost Proxy Scores Public/Agency Total Cost Better Market Street A/P $258 Congestion Pricing Cordon and Treasure Island A/P $119 Historic Streetcar Expansion E Turnaround A/P $149 HOV Lane, Central Freeway A $15 New Caltrain Station at Oakdale Avenue A/P $62 Potrero / Bayshore BRT A/P $128 Transit Effectiveness Project A/P $178 Transit Performance Initiative A $400+ Total Cost of Top Tier of Projects $1,309 www.sfcta.org/movesmartsf twitter.com/sanfranciscota www.facebook.com/movesmartsf 12
Top Tier Projects www.sfcta.org/movesmartsf twitter.com/sanfranciscota www.facebook.com/movesmartsf 13
Benefit-Cost Index Middle-High Tier Listed alphabetically Projects with Middle-High Benefit-Cost Proxy Scores Public / Agency Total Cost BART Metro Turnback A $500 BART 30 th Street Infill Station A/P $813 Carpool / bus lanes on I-280 (to 6 th ) and 101 (to Cesar Chavez) A $148 Evans Avenue transit priority A $71 Express bus service, Hunters Point and Candlestick Point A $147 Geary Boulevard BRT A $229 Geneva Avenue Extension A $148 Geneva TPS / BRT A/P $92 M-line 19 th Avenue west side alignment A $271 Stockton St. Transit Priority and Partial BRT P $35 T-line extension to Southern Intermodal Terminal A/P $152 Total Cost of Middle-High Tier Projects $2,606 www.sfcta.org/movesmartsf twitter.com/sanfranciscota www.facebook.com/movesmartsf 14
Middle-High Tier Projects www.sfcta.org/movesmartsf twitter.com/sanfranciscota www.facebook.com/movesmartsf 15
Benefit-Cost Index Low-Middle Tier Listed alphabetically Projects with Low-Middle Benefit-Cost Proxy Scores Agency/Public Total Cost Bridge over Yosemite Slough A $69 Central Freeway Removal / Octavia Boulevard Extension P $226 Central Subway Extension to North Beach / Fisherman s Wharf A $1,686 Contraflow carpool lane on Bay Bridge A $335 Extend M-line to Daly City A $377 Geary subway-to-surface rail P $1,430 Geneva Avenue light rail line P $440 Harney Way rebuild and BRT A $445 Historic Streetcar Expansion Fort Mason Extension A/P $93 Increased SF BART service A $702 J-Church Limited Bus P $45 Mission Bay ferry terminal A $75 Muni service expansion to accommodate growth A/P $2,000 N-Judah rail service to Mission Bay (along 16 th Street) P $619 Southeast Waterfront transit priority and increased service A $876 Total Cost of Low-Middle Tier Projects $9,418 www.sfcta.org/movesmartsf twitter.com/sanfranciscota www.facebook.com/movesmartsf 16
Low-Middle Tier Projects www.sfcta.org/movesmartsf twitter.com/sanfranciscota www.facebook.com/movesmartsf 17
Benefit-Cost Index Low Tier Listed alphabetically Projects with Benefit-Cost Proxy Score = 0 Agency/Public Total Cost 14-Mission trolleybus extension to Daly City P $39 Cable car extension to Japantown P $123 Candlestick Park ferry A $83 Replace Muni Metro L-Taraval with BRT P $124 Total Cost of Low Tier projects $369 www.sfcta.org/movesmartsf twitter.com/sanfranciscota www.facebook.com/movesmartsf 18
Lowest Tier Projects www.sfcta.org/movesmartsf twitter.com/sanfranciscota www.facebook.com/movesmartsf 19
Other Considerations Operational benefits Equity www.sfcta.org/movesmartsf twitter.com/sanfranciscota www.facebook.com/movesmartsf 20
Other Considerations Support for PDAs Safety www.sfcta.org/movesmartsf twitter.com/sanfranciscota www.facebook.com/movesmartsf 21
Reminder: Developing a Preferred Alternative Total Available Funding $64.3B State of Good Repair Needs Programs Project Tiers DRAFT Financially Constrained Plan Fall 2012 Draft Vision Scenario FINAL ADOPTED PLAN Spring 2013 Final Vision Scenario Public Feedback Fall 2012 www.sfcta.org/movesmartsf twitter.com/sanfranciscota www.facebook.com/movesmartsf 22
Additional Questions? Next Item: Budget Game for Fall Outreach www.sfcta.org/movesmartsf twitter.com/sanfranciscota www.facebook.com/movesmartsf
SFTP Adoption Timeline Summer 2012 Draft project evaluation Core Network Circulation study develop alternatives Draft Strategic Initiatives Fall 2012 Public and Board / Commission Outreach Develop draft Preferred and Vision scenarios Institutional recommendations Winter 2012/13 Revise and Evaluate Preferred and Vision scenarios Identify Core Network preferred alternative Draft SFTP (administrative) By April 2013 Public and Board / Commission Outreach Final SFTP + plan adoption SAN FRANCISCO COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY 24