Welcome. Edmundo Gamillo Vice President, Middle Market Banking/Commercial Banking Chase Welcome. Our world Global Economic Outlook Paulo Goes Dean, Eller College of Management Anthony Chan, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Chase ghammond@eller.arizona.edu, 52 626 1679 1
Tucson MSA Economy Scorecard Our region Outlook for Tucson, Ph.D. Director, Economic Business Research Center 7 Our Roadmap Arizona jobs are growing fast this year Both Phoenix and Tucson generated accelerations Tucson is on pace for fastest growth since 26 Phoenix and Tucson house prices rise But remain low compared to many western metros Boosting migration to Arizona from high-price states Arizona exports are trending up But not to Mexico U.S. Dollar rising again Outlook is strong in the near term, but recession risks remain relevant Tucson MSA Job Growth By Industry Education and Health Services Professional and Business Services Over The Year, Third Quarter 21 Leisure and Hospitality Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation and Utilities Government Financial Activities Information Other Services Natural Resources and Mining $32,53 $65,99 $5,15 $55,6 $6,27 $5,76 $36,967 $,71 $5,796 $19,5 $5,291 Avg. Wages per Worker $5,5 in 217 2. 1.. 1. 2. 3.. Thousands of Jobs 6 ghammond@eller.arizona.edu, 52 626 1679 2
Tucson MSA Employment Benchmark Thousands 3 3 EBRC Benchmark BLS 3 376 372 36 36 I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 215 216 217 21 Personal Income Growth Converged Annual Growth Rates Arizona Phoenix MSA Tucson MSA 217 Growth Arizona: 5.6% Phoenix: 5.% Tucson: 5.% U.S.:.% 2 6 1 1 16 1 Percent 16 9 11 Federal Procurement Spending Median House Prices In Arizona, Fiscal Year Phoenix, Tucson, And Select Western Metros 16 1 1 $Billions 6 2 FY21 FY211 FY2 FY213 FY21 FY215 FY216 FY217 Department of Defense Not Department of Defense 1 ghammond@eller.arizona.edu, 52 626 1679 3
Median House Price Trends U.S. Cost Of Living By State 216 Phoenix, Tucson, And San Diego 2 U.S. Bureau Of Economic Analysis 15 1 5 5 1 Arizona.1% 15 13 2 Hawaii District of Columbia New York California New Jersey Maryland Connecticut Massachusetts New Hampshire Washington Alaska Colorado Virginia Vermont Delaware Oregon Florida Rhode Island Illinois Maine Pennsylvania Minnesota Nevada Utah Texas Wyoming Arizona Montana New Mexico Michigan Idaho Wisconsin Georgia North Dakota North Carolina Kansas Nebraska Louisiana Indiana South Carolina Iowa Tennessee Missouri Ohio Oklahoma South Dakota Kentucky West Virginia Arkansas Alabama Mississippi Percent Difference from U.S. 15 Median House Price Trends Gross Migration Flows To Arizona Phoenix, Tucson, And Select Western Metros Census ACS Five-Year Estimates 2-216 1 16 ghammond@eller.arizona.edu, 52 626 1679
And Legal Northbound Border Crossings From Mexico To U.S. Millions $ Millions 3.2 Arizona BPOE 9 3. Personal Vehicle Passenger 2. and Pedestrian Crossings (Left Axis) 7 2.6 6 2. 2.2 2. 1. Arizona Merchandise Exports Exports to Mexico (Right Axis) 5 3 2 1.6 1 2 6 1 1 16 1 Tucson MSA Job Change By Industry Forecast: 217-22 Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Professional and Business Services Construction Government Trade, Transportation and Utilities Manufacturing Financial Activities Information Mining and Logging Other Services.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 Thousands 17 19 Tucson MSA And U.S. Job Growth Tucson MSA Housing Permits Annual Rates Percent 6 Annual Rates Permits, 1, 2, Tucson U.S. 2 Single Family Multi Family 6,, 2, 5 1 15 2 25 6 5 1 15 2 25 1 2 ghammond@eller.arizona.edu, 52 626 1679 5
Tucson MSA Income And Sales Annual Growth Rates, Retail Sales Broadly Defined Percent Retail Sales Personal Income 21 5 1 15 2 25 Risks Three Employment Scenarios Optimistic Thousands 6 2 Learn about Southern Arizona. mapazdashboard.arizona.edu Pessimistic 3 22 36 3 25 21 215 22 225 Partners ghammond@eller.arizona.edu, 52 626 1679 6
Explore data for border economies. Arizona-Mexico Economic Indicators Discover the Forecasting Project azmex.eller.arizona.edu forecast.eller.arizona.edu Visit the award-winning Arizona s Economy A special thank you to for sponsoring today s event. azeconomy.eller.arizona.edu ghammond@eller.arizona.edu, 52 626 1679 7