N AT I O N A L P O L I C Y O R I E N TAT I O N A N D A R C H I T E C T U R E KEIZO TAKEMI M E M B E R, H O U S E O F C O U N C I L LO R S, JA PA N C H A I R M A N, L D P P O L I C Y B O A R D I N T H E H O U S E O F C O U N C I L L O R S K E I O L O N G E V I T Y C L U S T E R P O L I C Y D I A L O G U E M E E T I N G O N S AT U R D AY, 1 4 A P R I L., 2018
Changes in Major Policies before introducing the Long-term Care Insurance System 1960s Beginning of welfare policies for the elderly 1970s Expansion of healthcare expenditures for the elderly 1980s Social hospitalization and bedridden elderly people as social problems 1990s Promotion of the Gold Plan Preparation for adoption of the Long-Term Care Insurance System 2000s Introduction of the Long-Term Care Insurance System Aging rate (year) 5.7% (1960) 7.1% (1970) 9.1% (1980) 12.0% (1990) 14.5% (1995) 17.3% (2000) Major policies 1963 Enactment of the Act on Social Welfare Services for the Elderly Intensive care homes for the elderly created Legislation on home helpers for the elderly 1973 Free healthcare for the elderly 1982 Enactment of the Health and Medical Services Act for the Aged Adoption of the payment of co-payments for elderly healthcare, etc. 1989 Establishment of the Gold Plan (10-year strategy for the promotion of health and welfare for the elderly) Promotion of the urgent preparation of facilities and in-home welfare services 1994 Establishment of the New Gold Plan (new 10-year strategy for the promotion of health and welfare for the elderly) Improvement of in-home long-term care 1997 Enactment of the Long-Term Care Insurance Act 2000 Enforcement of the Long-Term Care Insurance System 2
3 Asia Human Wellbeing Initiative (AHWIN)
Population aged 65 and over (in million) 1950 6 1 14 56 2015 5 48 53 98 153 2050 10 44 130 331 7 ASIA AFRICA EUROPE 41 195 N.AMERICA LAC OCEANIA ASIA AFRICA EUROPE N.AMERICA LAC OCEANIA 146 956 ASIA AFRICA EUROPE N.AMERICA LAC OCEANIA 4
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 Population (billions) 5 Population by Age Group Asia and Pacific Region Total 4 3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 2 1 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.1 1.0 0.1 0.1 1.1 1.3 0.1 1.5 0.1 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 65+ 15-64 0-14 - 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Note : Asia and Pacific region includes East, Southeast, and South-Central Asia, and Oceania Source : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision (DVD edition). Year 5
Dependency ratio of selected Asia and Pacific economies 110 100 Dependency ratio = Pop. aged 0 14 + 65~ Pop. aged 15 64 90 80 70 60 50 40 AFPPD China India Indonesia Japan Philippines Vietnam Thailand South Korea Kazakhstan 30 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Source : United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision (DVD edition). 6
Speed of aging Years required for aging rate to rise from 7% to 14% Projection France 1864 115 1979 Sweden 1887 85 1972 United Kingdom 1929 46 1975 Australia 1939 73 2012 Hungary 1941 53 1994 United States 1942 72 2014 Canada 1945 65 2010 Spain 1947 45 1992 Japan 1970 24 1994 Kazakhstan 1994 60 2054 South Korea 1999 18 2017 Singapore 1999 20 2019 Thailand 2002 20 2022 China 2002 23 2025 Sri Lanka 2007 20 2027 Vietnam 2016 18 2034 India 2023 28 2051 Indonesia 2025 25 2050 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Year Note : The year to the left of the bar designates the year in which the percentage of the population aged 65 and above (aging rate) reached 7%; the number to the right of the bar designates the year when the aging rate attained 14%. The number on the bar designates the years required for that increase. Source : Hungary by Kinsella and Wan He (2009); Kazakhstan, Vietnam, India, and Indonesia calculated using UN (2015) and others by IPSS (2016) 7
The 1st impact of aging GROWING DANGER OF NON-COMMUNICABLE DISEASES
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Aging and Cancer in Asia Source : WHO International Agency for Research on Cancer 10
Cases & Proposals: Future Vision of Cancer Genomic Medicine Promotion in Japan Medical societie s, etc. Regulator y agencies Cancer Genomic Medicine Promotion Consortium Liaison Council Scientific assessments of cancer genomic medicine from a third party s perspective Decision of directions based on assessments and submittal of proposals to MHLW Opinion gathering from the public and activities for diffusing cancer genomic medicine Determination of future direction of the Consortium (4) R&D Organization such as universities Strategic development and promotion of liquid biopsies *1, effective immune therapies *2 and others HAiC Service for establishing environment for developing AI (3) Private entities engaged in genomic analysis Genomic analysis assuring high-quality and efficiency Outsourcin g contract *1: Cancer genomic diagnosis using blood instead of cancer tissue *2: Treatment to attack cancer cells by activating immune function of living body (2) Organization to manage information related to cancer genomic medicine (National Cancer Center)) Standardization, collection and management of data Conclusion of contracts with medical institutions, R&D organizations and enterprises Management of patients data and consultation Database of genome analysis information Informatio n registration Referral of patients and delivery of specimen and information Information on clinical trials, etc. Technical support (1) Central medical institutions for cancer genomic medicine (designate 10-12 hospitals) Quality-assured NGS examination (outsourcing permitted) Providing explanations on assay results Provision of and support for genetic counseling Referral to and execution of clinical trials Collection, management and registration of adequate information on clinical trials Outsourcin g contract Sending of results and support for diagnosis Central medical institutions for cancer treatment (about 400 hospitals) Collection and managemen t of data (3) Private entities to support cancer genomic medicine Database of cancer-related knowledge Patients & Public Enterprises, etc. Medicine development Medical equipment development
Schedule for Implementing Cancer Genomic Medicine in Japan Central medical institutions for cancer genomic medicine (designate 10-12 hospitals) Approval of and gain health insurance coverage for genomic assays Revise basic plan Establish Select central and propose requirements 公募 medical concept on central for selecting institutions medical 診療報酬上の評価を検討 facilities ( 中医 institutions for 協 ) cancer genomic Prepare guidance for medical medicine based on societies to review the scope of the opinions of the diseases to be subjected to panel Consortium assays 2017 First half of 2018 Second half of 2018 2019 or later Position cancer genomic medicine (panel assays & whole genome assays)as an advanced medicine Prepare for implementing a new advanced medicine Implement a new advanced medicine using panel assays Win approval for panel assays ASAP Expansion of facilities to adopt cancer genomic medicine Gain health insurance coverage for panel assays winning approval Implement a new advanced medicine Positioning and review for implementation of whole genome assays Center for managing cancer genomic information (National Cancer Center) ) Promotion of R&D Prepare database of integrating clinical genome information Prototyping Accumulating data on database Prepare for operation of cancer genomic information center (includes unification of clinical information Prepare for whole genome analysis Launch operation of cancer genomic information center Cancer genomic information center Whole genome analysis Strategic R&D promotion (Promotion of investigator-initiated clinical trials and advanced medicine, as well as development of innovative drugs, effective immune therapies, liquid biopsies and others) 12
The 2nd impact of aging SUSTAINABILITY OF MEDICAL CARE
Proportion of population 60 years or over living independently, alone or with spouse Male (%) Female (%) Germany 91.5 88.7 USA 76.8 73.8 Japan 51.5 46.9 China 39.7 34.1 Vietnam 29.8 26.8 Indonesia 24.1 24.1 Thailand 21.3 16.8 India 17.3 15.8 Sources: Japan data based on 2010 Population Census; all other data based on United Nations, DESA, Population Division, 14 Population Ageing and Development 2012.
Health and welfare services for elderly in Japan Impact of introduction of Long-Term Care Insurance System (2000) Place of death Year Hospital Clinic Senior citizen health facilities Number of nursing homes Year Number of facilities Change Nursing homes Home 1951 9.1 2.6 - - 82.5 1970 32.9 4.5 - - 56.6 1990 71.6 3.4 0.0-21.7 2009 78.4 2.4 1.1 3.2 12.4 1990 2,260 3,994 nursing homes were newly 2000 4,463 +2,203 established in a period of 20 years. There was a 277% increase in 2011 6,254 +1,791 facilities. 15
Trends and the Future Prospects of Long-Term Care Benefits and Premiums The second phase The fourth phase The first phase The third phase The fifth phase The sixth phase The municipal governments formulate a Long-term Care Insurance Service Plan, which designates 3 years as one term and is reviewed every 3 years. As ageing proceeds, premiums estimated to rise to 6,771 yen in 2020 and 8,165 yen in 2025. In order to maintain sustainability of the long-term care insurance system, it would be necessary to establish Integrated Community Care System, and to make services more focused and efficient. Operation period Benefits(Total Cost) Insurance premiums 3.6 trillion (national average per month) 4.6 trillion FY2000 FY2001 FY2002 FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2020 FY2025 5.2 trillion 5.7trillion 6.2 trillon 6.4 trillion 6.4 trillion 6.7 trillion 6.9 trillion 7.4 trillion 7.8 trillion 8.2 trillion 8.9 trillion 9.4 trillion 10.0 trillion 10.1 trillion 2,911yen 3,293yen 4,090yen 4,160yen 4,972yen 5,514yen 6,771yen 8,165yen
Establishing Integrated Community Care System By 2025 when the baby boomers will become age 75 and above, a structure called Integrated Community Care System will be created that comprehensively ensures the provision of health care, nursing care, prevention, housing, and livelihood support. By this, the elderly could live the remainder of their lives in their own ways in environments familiar to them, even if they become heavily in need for long term care. As the number of elderly people with dementia is expected to rise, creation of Integrated Community Care System is important to support community life of the elderly with dementia. The progression status will have regional differences; large cities with stable total population and rapidly growing population of over 75, and towns and villages with decrease of total population but gradual increase of population over 75. It is necessary for the municipalities and prefectures that serve as insurers to create Integrated Community Care System based on the regional autonomy and independence.. Hospitals: Acute phase, recovery phase, chronic phase Community General Support Center Care manager In case of illness: Health Care Handles consultation and service coordination. Integrated Community Care System Model Outpatient / inpatient care Regular health care: PCP, clinics with in-patient facilities Regional affiliate hospitals Dental care, pharmacies Home One s own residence Senior residences offering services, etc. Livelihood support/ preventing long-term care So that seniors can continue active, healthy living Visits / Moving in When care becomes necessary... Nursing Care In-home services: Home-Visit Long-Term Care, Home-Visit Nursing, Outpatient Day Long-Term Care Multifunctional (Long-Term Care in a) Smal Group Home Short-Term Admission for Daily Life Long-Term Care Equipment for Long-Term Care covered by Public Aid 24-hour Home-Visit Service Combined Multiple Service (Multifunctional Long-Term Care in a Smal Group Home+Home-Visit Nursing) Preventive Long-Term Care Services * Integrated Community Care System is conceived in units of every-day living areas (specifically equivalent to district divisions for junior high-schools) in which necessary services can be provided within approximately 30 minutes. Facility/Residence services: Nursing care homes Geriatric health services facilities Communal-living care for dementia patients Living care for persons at government-designated facilities etc. Senior clubs, residents associations, volunteer groups, NPOs, etc. 17
The 3rd impact of aging AGING POOR
1,000,000 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 Recipients of Public Assistance by Age 65 yrs and older 967,552 45.5 % 500,000 400,000 50~59 0~19 300,000 200,000 100,000 30~39 40~49 60~64 20~29 271,896 265,846 231,119 213,982 117,581 59,865 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare National Survey on Public Assistance Recipients 19
The 4th impact of aging SHORTAGE OF CARE WORKERS
Asia Health and Wellbeing Initiative( AHWIN ) 〇 AHWIN aims to amass bilateral and regional cooperation, business and projects on aging-related challenges in the Asian region. 〇 The goal of the initiative is to create a vibrant and healthy society where people can enjoy long and productive lives, and to contribute to the economic growth. Training for professional elderly care service such as Functional Recovery Care Asia Building economic ties among industries related to elderly care Japan Career Development Training Enrichment of human resources for professional elderly care service such as Functional Recovery Care First approach image suggested by Japan 22
Working groups Asia Health and Wellbeing 体制 Initiative ( 案 ) Promotion System in Japan PRIVATE SECTOR Private Sector Consortium of Asia Health and Wellbeing Initiative [Chair] Shuichi Nakamura Review of systems of care and services in Japan COORDINATION Keizo Takemi Chair, Special Committee on International Health Strategy, LDP Hiroto Izumi Chair, Asia Health and Wellbeing Initiative Promotion Council Shuichi Nakamura Chair, Private Sector Consortium (Chairman, Medical Care and Welfare Policy Research Forum) Minister of MHLW Policy dialogue and dissemination Japan Center for international Exchange Special Committee on International Health Strategy, Liberal Democratic Party of Japan [Chair] Keizo Takemi Asia Health and Wellbeing Initiative Promotion Council (WG) LDP GOVERNMENT OF JAPAN [Chair] Hiroto Izumi Office of Healthcare Policy, Cabinet Secretariat [Members] Ministry of Justice (MOJ) Ministry of Finance (MOF) Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery (MAFF) Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) Training and movement of elderly care workers Building economic ties among industries related to elderly care industry Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) WHO Kobe Centre INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION 23
Councils and Working groups for Asia Health and Human Well-Being Initiative Councils Information dissemination Policy dialogues Conceptualization of Elderly Care in Japan Working Groups Development of teaching and training method Working Groups Government support for overseas market cultivation Working Groups 1 2 3 Organization and Management for Rehabilitation Development methods for Needs analysis, Care and evaluation Medical cooperation for Care Services for Independent Living for Elderly 4 New technology, Robot and ICT 1Human resource development in Asia 2 3 Support for the livelihoods of foreign workers Networking in Asia 4 Home Care 1 2 Support for overseas business development Large-scale projects (Clark Green City Project ) 5 Private Service provider 6 Dementia 23
United Nation The High-level Commission on Health Employment and Economic Growth 2 Recommendations of the Commission 1. Job creation 2. Gender equality and rights 3. Educations, training and competencies 4. Health service delivery and organization 5. Technology 6. Crises and humanitarian settings 7. Financing and fiscal space 8. Partnership and cooperation 9. International Migration 10. Data, Information and Accountability