Latin American Educational Foundation October 12, 2008 Keystone, Colorado How Colorado Higher Education Measures Up David Longanecker, President Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE)
Colorado Commission on Higher Education Annual Retreat August 13, 2007 Vale, Colorado David Longanecker, Executive Director Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) How Colorado Higher Education Measures Up IF CHALLENGES ARE OPPORTUNITIES, YOU ARE IN FOR QUITE A JOYOUS RIDE
How Colorado Measures Up: On Educational Achievement The Good News Colorado is relatively well educated.
Percent of Population Age 25-64 with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2005 48.7 50 45.7 37.4 40 30 25.0 20 10 0 West Virginia Arkansas Louisiana Kentucky Nevada Mississippi Tennessee Alabama Indiana Oklahoma Texas Missouri South Carolina New Mexico Ohio Idaho Wyoming Arizona Georgia Michigan North Carolina Alaska Montana Florida Pennsylvania Delaware Maine Oregon Wisconsin United States Iowa South Dakota Kansas Utah California Illinois Nebraska Hawaii Rhode Island Washington North Dakota Virginia New York Maryland Vermont New Hampshire Minnesota New Jersey Colorado Connecticut Massachusetts Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey (ACS) NCHEMS
Percent of Adults with an Associate Degree or Higher by Age Group Colorado, the U.S. and Leading OECD Countries, 2004 Age 25-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-54 Age 55-64 46.5 46.1 46.2 44.2 36.2 40.7 39.4 39.0 23.2 29.4 34.1 39.2 15.7 21.5 28.9 40.4 20.0 25.2 32.3 40.7 27.3 32.9 35.7 42.3 16.4 33.5 49.1 19.2 32.7 45.1 51.6 34.5 41.4 47.0 53.3 60 50 40 30 20 9.7 10 0 Canada Japan Korea Sweden Belgium Ireland Norway U.S. Colorado Source: Education at a Glance 2005, OECD -- NCHEMS
How Colorado Measures Up: On Educationaql Achievement The Good News Colorado is relatively well educated. Important Colorado s labor requirements will require it
Projected Percent Change in Occupations Requiring Some Postsecondary Training, 2002-2012 46.3 50 40 31.3 30 21.4 20 11.0 10 0 West Virginia Kansas Pennsylvania North Dakota Connecticut New York Alaska Illinois Michigan Louisiana Nebraska Oregon Ohio Indiana Maine South Carolina Iowa Wyoming Missouri New Jersey Alabama Delaware Rhode Island Oklahoma Vermont South Dakota Wisconsin Washington Minnesota Hawaii Tennessee United States Arkansas Mississippi Montana Kentucky Maryland California Texas North Carolina New Mexico New Hampshire Georgia Florida Arizona Virginia Idaho Colorado Utah Nevada Note: Some college, Associate, Bachelor s and higher. Source: ACINet, Career InfoNet -- NCHEMS
How Colorado Measures Up: On Educational Achievement -- The Rest of the Story On Student Learning? On Participation and Success Pretty average
Student Pipeline, 2004 100 91.3 Of 100 9th Graders, How Many 80 60 69.7 73.2 57.3 Best Performing State United States Colorado 40 20 38.8 42.3 42.0 26.9 28.1 27.3 18.4 20.4 42.3 29.7 36.4 0 Graduate from High School Directly Enter College Enroll in Second Year Graduate Within 150% of Program Time Age 25-44 with Bachelor's Degree Source: NCES Common Core Data, IPEDS Residency and Migration Survey, IPEDS Enrollment Survey, IPEDS Graduation Rate Survey -- NCHEMS
How Colorado Measures Up: On Academics -- The Rest of the Story On Student Learning? On Participation and Success Pretty average On Parity in Participation and Success Not a pretty story
Percent Educational Attainment of Population Age 25-64 By Race/Ethnicity Colorado, 2005 40 37.5 White Non-Hispanic Hispanic American Indian, Alaska Native Black Non-Hispanic Asian, Pacific Islander Other Non-Hispanic 30 20 10 4.0 9.2 10.4 9.0 8.3 29.9 25.1 20.5 15.3 26.0 24.6 26.3 32.9 28.8 23.1 17.3 14.6 9.1 10.5 4.9 5.9 11.2 12.6 18.0 12.9 29.0 8.2 19.1 28.8 3.9 7.3 14.5 23.1 10.2 7.9 0 Less than High School High School Some College Associate Bachelor's Graduate/ Professional Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey PUMS File --NCHEMS
Difference (in Percentage Points) in College Attainment Between Whites and Minorities,* 40 2006 34.1 30 22.0 20 10 Vermont 0 Colorado California North Dakota Nebraska Massachusetts South Dakota Connecticut Illinois New York Wisconsin New Jersey Washington Texas Arizona Minnesota New Mexico Hawaii Iowa Utah Nevada Idaho Kansas Oregon Rhode Island United States Pennsylvania North Carolina South Carolina Montana Maryland Virginia Alaska Maine Michigan Wyoming Georgia Delaware Alabama Louisiana Oklahoma Indiana Mississippi Tennessee Missouri Ohio Arkansas Kentucky Florida New Hampshire West Virginia -6.5-10 * Minorities include Black non-hispanics, Hispanics, and American Indians/Alaska Natives Source: NCHEMS (from U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS (PUMS))
How Colorado Measures Up: On Educational Achievement -- How Is This Possible? How Does: Average (or below average, in participation) Lead To Best? The Colorado Paradox
Migration Rate* of College- Educated Residents Age 22-64 Associate and Higher, 1995-2000 240 203.0 180 3.0 8.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 18.0 20.0 23.0 31.0 33.0 36.0 38.0 40.0 44.0 48.0 52.0 53.0 55.0 58.0 61.0 70.0 75.0 81.0 97.0 100.0 103.0 127.0 120 60 0-53.0-51.0-46.0-45.0-44.0-25.0-24.0-24.0-18.0-16.0-16.0-12.0-11.0-8.0-6.0-6.0-6.0-5.0-3.0-3.0-2.0 New Mexico Michigan Illinois Missouri Kentucky Connecticut Arkansas Maine Massachusetts Minnesota Delaware New Hampshire New Jersey Idaho Tennessee Maryland South Carolina California Virginia Texas Washington Oregon North Carolina Colorado Georgia Florida Arizona Nevada -60-103.0-120 * Per 1,000 residents age 22-64 with college degrees. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, PUMS (based on 2000 Census) -- NCHEMS
Percent of Residents Age 25-64 with an Associate Degree Born In-State, 2005 76.8 80 60 52.4 40 33.0 20 8.8 0 Nevada Alaska Arizona Florida Wyoming Colorado Delaware Maryland Virginia New Hampshire Oregon Idaho Georgia Washington New Mexico California Montana Oklahoma New Jersey Vermont Texas Hawaii Tennessee Arkansas State Average South Carolina North Carolina Connecticut Utah Kansas South Dakota Missouri Maine Rhode island West Virginia Nebraska Alabama Mississippi New York Kentucky Illinois Indiana Louisiana Massachusetts Minnesota North Dakota Wisconsin Ohio Iowa Michigan Pennsylvania Source: 2005 ACS -- NCHEMS
Percent of Residents Age 25-64 with a Bachelor s Degree or Higher Born In- State, 2005 70 64.4 60 50 41.7 40 30 22.9 20 8.3 10 0 Nevada Alaska Arizona Florida New Hampshire Colorado Delaware Virginia Maryland Vermont Wyoming Oregon Idaho New Mexico Washington Georgia California New Jersey North Carolina Connecticut South Carolina Maine State Average Hawaii Montana Tennessee Texas Rhode island Utah Kansas Massachusetts Arkansas Missouri Oklahoma Minnesota Illinois Alabama New York Kentucky Indiana Nebraska South Dakota West Virginia Wisconsin North Dakota Iowa Ohio Mississippi Michigan Pennsylvania Louisiana Source: 2005 ACS - NCHEMS
Migration Rate* of Residents Age 22-64 with Less than a High School Diploma, 1995-2000 240 130 142 143 150 94 95 96 99 103 104 105 106 100 8 11 12 17 20 22 25 25 26 29 32 33 35 37 37 38 38 39 45 46 49 51 52 54 56 57 61 63 64 64 71 73 76 76 77 50 Vermont North Dakota Wyoming 0-3 -1-46 West Virginia Louisiana Ohio Alaska Hawaii Pennsylvania South Dakota Maine Montana Mississippi Alabama California New York Kentucky New Hampshire Missouri Michigan New Mexico Indiana Maryland Illinois Tennessee Wisconsin Virginia South Carolina Massachusetts Arkansas New Jersey Idaho Oklahoma Iowa Connecticut Rhode Island Texas Washington Delaware North Carolina Minnesota Florida Nebraska Kansas Georgia Oregon Utah Arizona Colorado Nevada -50 * Per 1,000 residents age 22-64 with less than a high school diploma. Source: State Higher Education Officers (SHEEO) -- NCHEMS
How Colorado Measures Up: On Educational Achievement -- How Is This Possible? How Does: Average Lead To Best? The Colorado Paradox Let others educate the Colorado Work Force Let the children of others benefit from Colorado s Strong Economy
How Colorado Measures Up on Demographics Where We Are Today Substantial Inequities Where We Are Headed Substantial Growth In Demand Ahead
How Colorado Measures Up on Demographics With Virtually All Growth from Populations Traditionally Underserved And Enrollment Policies and Practices That May Exacerbate This
Population Projections Percent Change, 2000-25 93.3 85.8 60 50 40 28.4 30 24.2 20 10.5 10 0 North Dakota West Virginia Ohio Iowa New York Pennsylvania Nebra ska South Dakota Louisiana Wyoming Illinois Michigan Mississippi Alabama Connecticut Kansas Massachusetts Rhode Island Indiana Oklahoma Maine Kentucky Missouri Wisconsin New Jersey Montana Vermont New Mexico Arkansas Hawaii United States Minnesota Tennessee South Carolina Delaware Maryland New Hampshire Colorado California Alaska Virginia Oregon Washington Georgia North Carolina Idaho Utah Texas Florida Arizona Nevada Source: U.S. Census Bureau -- NCHEMS
Colorado Total Population Estimates by County, 2005 524,809 529,305 558,663 564,857 600,000 500,000 402,219 400,000 State estimated population = 4,722,755 228,158 249,572 271,842 279,508 300,000 Front Range = 81.9% 129,746 150,974 200,000 19,507 20,687 21,284 21,862 22,741 24,767 24,963 27,997 29,991 37,554 43,376 47,230 47,650 47,684 49,772 100,000 568 786 923 1,417 1,423 1,809 1,952 2,523 3,409 3,874 4,082 4,257 4,577 4,628 4,953 5,377 5,563 5,617 6,000 7,032 7,190 7,664 7,724 7,741 8,446 9,196 9,785 11,882 12,251 13,140 13,397 13,923 14,182 14,822 15,254 15,387 16,879 16,944 0 San Juan Hinsdale Mineral Kiowa Jackson Dolores Cheyenne Sedgwick Costilla Custer Baca Ouray Phillips Washington Gilpin Crowley Bent Lincoln Rio Blanco Saguache San Miguel Kit Carson Lake Huerfano Conejos Clear Creek Yuma Archuleta Rio Grande Grand Moffat Prowers Gunnison Pitkin Alamosa Las Animas Chaffee Park Otero Logan Routt Teller Elbert Montezuma Summit Morgan Delta Montrose Broomfield La Plata Fremont Eagle Garfield Mesa Pueblo Weld Douglas Larimer Boulder Adams Jefferson Arapahoe Denver El Paso Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates - NCHEMS
Counties in which 80% of Colorado s Hispanic Population Resides, 2005 Source: NCHEMS (from U.S. Census Bureau)
U.S. Public and Nonpublic High School Graduates, 1996-97 to 2004-05 (Estimated), 2005-06 to 2021-22 (Projected) 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 Millions 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 Knocking at the College Door - 2008
Public and Nonpublic High School Graduates by Region, 1996-97 to 2004-05 (Estimated), 2005-06 to 2021-22 (Projected) 1.3 1.2 1.1 South 1.0 Millions 0.9 0.8 West 0.7 Midwest 0.6 Northeast 0.5 0.4 Knocking at the College Door - 2008
Percent Change Between 2004-05 and 2014-15 in Total High School Graduates, by State
Percent Change Between 2004-05 and 2014-15 in Total High School Graduates, by State AK WA ME OR IA CT IL MD CA MO KY NM OK TN SC MS -4.99% to 5% HI
Percent Change Between 2004-05 and 2014-15 in Total High School Graduates, by State AK WA ME CA OR NE MN WI IA IL MO MI KY OH WV PA NY MA RI CT MD NM OK TN SC MS -5% to -9.99% -4.99% to 5% HI
Percent Change Between 2004-05 and 2014-15 in Total High School Graduates, by State AK CA OR WA MT WY ND SD NE KS MN WI IA IL MO MI KY OH WV PA NY NH VT ME MA RI CT MD NM OK LA MS TN SC -10% or less -5% to -9.99% -4.99 to 5% HI
Percent Change Between 2004-05 and 2014-15 in Total High School Graduates, by State AK CA OR WA MT WY CO ND SD NE KS MN WI IA IL MO MI KY OH WV PA VA NY NH VT ME MA RI CT NJ MD DE DC NM OK LA MS TN AL SC -10% or less -5% to -9.99% -4.99% to 5% 5.01% to 10% HI
Percent Change Between 2004-05 and 2014-15 in Total High School Graduates, by State AK CA OR WA ID MT WY CO ND SD NE KS MN WI IA IL MO MI OH IN KY WV PA VA NY NH VT ME MA RI CT NJ MD DE DC NM OK AR LA MS TN AL SC NC -10% or less -5% to -9.99% -4.99% to 5% 5.01% to 10% 10.01% to 20% HI
Percent Change Between 2004-05 and 2014-15 in Total High School Graduates, by State AK CA WA OR NV ID UT MT WY CO ND SD NE KS MN WI IA IL MO IN MI KY OH WV PA VA NY NH VT ME MA RI CT NJ MD DE DC HI AZ NM TX OK AR LA MS TN AL GA SC FL NC -10% or less -5% to -9.99% -4.99% to 5% 5.01% to 10% 10.01% to 20% Greater than 20%
65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 Colorado High School Graduates 1991-92 to 2004-05 (Actual), 2005-06 to 2021-22 (Projected) 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 Public Total Public & Nonpublic Total
How Colorado Measures Up on Demographics Where We Are Today Substantial Inequities Where We Are Headed Substantial Growth In Demand Ahead With Virtually All Growth from Populations Traditionally Underserved
180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% Cumulative Percent Change in Colorado's Public High School Graduates After 2004-05 by Race/Ethnicity 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black, non-hispanic Hispanic White, non-hispanic
Composition of Colorado's Public High School Graduates by Race/Ethnicity, 2004-05 (Actual); 2009-10 and 2014-15 (Projected) 2014-15 2009-10 2004-05 1% 3% 1% 4% 6% 5% 17% 1% 5% 5% 21% 25% 64% 68% 74% American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black, non-hispanic Hispanic White, non-hispanic
How Colorado Measures Up on Demographics Where We Are Today Substantial Inequities Where We Are Headed Substantial Growth In Demand Ahead With Virtually All Growth from Populations Traditionally Underserved And Enrollment Policies and Practices That May Exacerbate This
Racial/Ethnic Composition of Enrollment in Colorado by Sector, 2006-07 100% 90% 80% 1.5% 1.9% 1.2% 3.7% 5.0% 5.2% 6.7% 3.4% 1.9% 6.7% 10.0% 17.9% 70% 60% 50% 40% 70.3% 79.7% 85.0% 30% 20% 10% 0% Public 2-Yr Public 4-Yr Flagships Source: NCES IPEDS White non-hispanic Hispanic Black non-hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander American Indian/Alaska Native
Undergraduate Enrollment in Colorado of Racial/Ethnic Groups by Sector, 2006-07 100% 90% 13.5% 10.7% 18.0% 14.5% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 40.0% 28.9% 26.1% 4.1% 22.7% 8.1% 37.4% 5.3% 24.7% 8.1% 30% 20% 10% 4.0% 27.1% 56.4% 58.5% 39.3% 52.6% 0% Black non- Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Hispanic White non- Hispanic Source: NCES IPEDS Public 4-Yr Private Non-Profit 4-Yr Public 2-Yr (or less) For-profit
Percent of 18-24-Year-Olds Enrolled in Postsecondary Institutions by Race/Ethnicity 45 40 41.7 35 30 25 27.7 31.8 24.7 20 15 19.7 16.3 10 5 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003 2004 White Black Hispanic
How Colorado Measures Up on Demographics Enrollment Policies That May Exacerbate This The Original Concept: Selective/Highly Selective: Top Quartile Moderately Selective: Next Third Open Admissions: The Rest About 40% Current Policy/Practice: Selective/Highly Selective: Top 30% Moderately Selective: Less Than 10% Open Admissions: 65%
Selected Characteristics of Undergraduates by Race/Ethnicity, 2003-04 White Black Hispanic Dependent Borrowers 39.4% 51.1% 32.2% Avg. Amt. Borrowed by Dep. Students $6,921 $6,526 $6,157 Work Full-Time 21.3% 31.3% 28.1% Work Part-Time 53.7% 40.7% 46.4% Dependent 53.0% 35.8% 46.5% First Generation 34.0% 46.0% 49.7% English is Primary Language 97.6% 93.8% 58.0% Notes: Borrowing figures include loans from all sources, including PLUS. Figures for work (including work-study) apply to students enrolled full-time only. All data are for U.S. citizens and resident aliens only. Source: National Center for Education Statistics, National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS)
How Colorado Measures Up on Demographics The Challenges Substantial Gaps in Equity of Outcomes Significant Growth With Virtually All Growth from Populations Traditionally Underserved And Enrollment Policies and Practices That May Exacerbate This
How Colorado Measures Up on: Finance The Good News Colorado Is A Wealthy State
Personal Income Per Capita, 2005 47,819 $50,000 37,946 34,586 $40,000 24,820 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 Louisiana Mississippi Arkansas West Virginia New Mexico Utah Idaho South Carolina Kentucky Alabama Oklahoma Montana Arizona North Carolina Tennessee Georgia Maine Indiana North Dakota South Dakota Missouri Oregon Iowa Texas Ohio Kansas Michigan Florida Vermont Wisconsin Nebraska Hawaii United States Pennsylvania Washington Alaska Nevada Illinois Rhode Island Wyoming California Delaware Minnesota Colorado Virginia New Hampshire New York Maryland New Jersey Massachusetts Connecticut Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Census Bureau -- NCHEMS
How Colorado Measures Up on: Finance The Good News Colorado Is A Wealthy State And Higher Education Is Affordable (on average) Below Average tuition by sector as a share of peer institutions (CCHE/NCHEMS Study) Community Colleges: 80% Four-year Institutions: 64% Research Universities: 86%
How Colorado Measures Up on: Finance But Averages Don t Tell The Whole Story Colorado Lags in Financial Assistance Estimated need-based U.G. grant dollars/u.g. FTE (NASSGP- 2005) U.S.: $446 WICHE: $386 Colorado: $274 Colorado rank: 26th
How Colorado Measures Up on: Finance The Good News Colorado Is A Wealthy State But That Wealth Is Not Equally Distributed
Household Income Distribution for Whites & Hispanics, 2005 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% $0-10K $10-20K $20-30K $30-40K $40-50K $50-60K $60-70K $70-80K $80-90K $90-100K $100-110K $110-120K $120-130K $130-140K $140-150K $150-160K $160-170K $170-180K $180-190K Percent $190-200K $200K + White Hispanic Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, (ipums.org).
35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Household Income Distribution for Hispanics Percent $0-20K $20-40K $40-60K $60-80K $80-100K $100-120K $120-140K $140-160K $160-180K $180-200K $200K + Colorado Nation (excl. CO)
Good finance policy: Allocations make higher education affordable Very affordable for the State
State & Local Public Higher Education Support per Full Time Student (NCHEMS/SHEEO)
State & Local Support for Public Higher Education per $1,000 of Personal Income (NCHEMS/SHEEO)
Good finance policy: Sustaining/Enhancing Institutional Capacity The Supply Side of the Equation Funding is inadequate to sustain, let alone enhance institutional quality or accessibility Combined Appropriations,Tuition and Fee Revenue Compared to Peer Institutions (CDHE & NCHEMS) Community Colleges: 69% Four-year Institutions: 58% Research Universities: 64%
Good finance policy: Fair Allocations The Balance Between Institutional and Student Support. Both roughly equally under-funded Need-based financial aid at a little more than half the norm Institutional support at about a little more than half the norm Fairness between institutions Mighty difficult to achieve perceived fairness with this level of deprivation. Is the measure average deprivation or absolute level of support?
Good finance policy: transparency to relevant stakeholders Transparency to citizens COF not yet achieving goal of encouraging greater participation Still confusion between gross and net price
Good finance policy: transparency to relevant stakeholders Transparency to institutions Institutions at risk because COF payments are not predictable Fee for Service is perhaps all too predictable following past practice, rather than state s emerging needs The C-Change s temporary condition places funding sustainability at risk
Performance Relative to Total Funding per FTE Overall Index Scores for State Higher Education Systems (NCHEMS) 122.7 127.7 136.3 120 48.3 51.9 53.3 60.2 60.3 63.2 63.3 67.0 68.1 69.5 69.8 70.3 71.0 71.6 71.7 74.3 74.9 75.4 76.0 76.8 78.3 78.5 80.5 82.2 83.2 83.9 84.8 85.0 85.2 85.5 88.4 88.7 89.3 90.7 90.9 91.2 91.7 92.2 96.3 96.8 99.5 100.0 100.9 101.5 103.2 104.3 106.9 90 60 30 0 Alaska Kentucky Maine Arkansas West Virginia Vermont Nevada South Carolina Louisiana New Jersey Georgia Idaho Wyoming Mississippi Hawaii Texas Tennessee New Mexico Oklahoma Oregon Ohio Alabama Michigan Indiana Pennsylvania Florida New York Montana Connecticut North Carolina South Dakota Minnesota Missouri Delaware California Kansas Illinois Nebraska Virginia Washington New Hampshire Maryland Wisconsin Arizona North Dakota Iowa Rhode Island Colorado Massachusetts Utah
30 Student Pipeline Result, 2002 PA ND IA MA NH MN CT 25 SD WI NJ NE VA DE IN RI WY ME VT Performance 20 UT CO CA OH MO IL KS US MT MI NY NC MD 15 WA KY WV AR TN AZ OR ID FLOK MS AL LASC GA TX NV HI NM AK 10 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 Total Funding Per FTE
CHALLENGES OR OPPORTUNTIES Persistent Equity Gaps Substantial Growth Limited Resources, but prospects for More More for More Same for More Less for Less But Polity Will Be Critical Taxes Matter The Ultimate Challenge To Turn your Joy Ride into a Joyous Ride