US Economic Indicators: Jobs Availability Survey ober 3, 218 Dr. Edward Yardeni 16-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 48-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Jobs Availability Survey 1-4 ober 3, 218 / Jobs Availability Survey www.
7 6 6 Figure 1. Jobs Availability Survey CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: JOBS AVAILABILITY Jobs Plentiful* (.9) Jobs Hard To Get* (13.2) 7 6 6 4 3 3 2 1 67 69 71 73 77 79 81 83 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 21 4 3 3 2 1 Source: The Conference Board. Figure 2. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: CURRENT CONDITIONS & JOBS AVAILABILITY 2 Jobs Plentiful Minus Jobs Hard To Get* (32.7) 1 Current Conditions Index (172.8) 1 1 - - - 67 69 71 73 77 79 81 83 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 21 Source: The Conference Board. Page 1 / ober 3, 218 / Jobs Availability Survey www.
Jobs Availability Survey 14 Figure 3. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE & JOBS AVAILABILITY 12 Jobs Hard To Get* 6 1 8 3 6 4 Unemployment Rate (percent) 2 67 69 71 73 77 79 81 83 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 21 Source: The Conference Board and Bureau of Labor Statistics. 8 7 6 6 4 3 3 2 1 Figure 4. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS & JOBS AVAILABILITY (sa) Jobs Hard To Get* Initial Unemployment Claims (thousands, sa, 4-week ma) 67 69 71 73 77 79 81 83 8 87 89 91 93 9 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 13 17 19 21 1/2 6 3 Source: The Conference Board and US Department of Labor. Page 2 / ober 3, 218 / Jobs Availability Survey www.
7 6 6 Figure. Jobs Availability Survey NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: JOB OPENINGS & JOBS AVAILABILITY (percent) Small Business with Job Openings* (3-ma) (37.7) Consumer Confidence Survey: Jobs Plentiful** (.9) 7 6 6 4 3 Sep 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 * First month of every quarter from 1974 to 1986, then monthly. * Source: National Federation of Independent Business and The Conference Board. 4 Figure 6. NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY: JOB OPENINGS & JOBS AVAILABILITY (percent) Sep 7 6 6 3 2 4 3 3 1 Small Business with Job Openings* (3-ma) (37.7) Consumer Confidence Survey: Jobs Hard to Get** (13.2) 74 76 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22 2 1 * First month of every quarter from 1974 to 1986, then monthly. * Source: National Federation of Independent Business and The Conference Board. Page 3 / ober 3, 218 / Jobs Availability Survey www.
Jobs Availability Survey 7 Figure 7. AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS & JOBS PLENTIFUL 12 6 Average Hourly Earnings* (yearly percent change) (2.7) 1 Consumer Confidence Survey: Jobs Plentiful** (.9) 8 4 6 3 2 4 Sep 1 2 78 8 82 84 86 88 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 * Production & nonsupervisory workers. * Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 6 6 4 3 3 2 1 Figure 8. ECI WAGES & SALARIES vs JOBS PLENTIFUL (sa) ECI: Wages & Salaries Private Industry (yearly percent change) Jobs Plentiful* 82 83 84 8 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 2 Q2 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6... 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. * Every other month from 1967 thru mid-1977, monthly data begins in July 1977. Seasonally adjusted. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Conference Board. Page 4 / ober 3, 218 / Jobs Availability Survey www.
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