APRIL 2017 DFP Mining and Resources Job Index Introduction Welcome to the latest edition of the DFP Mining and Resources Job Index which provides month end data for April 2017. After consecutive months of growth, demand for mining and resources employment softened slightly with the DFP Mining and Resources Job Index falling 2.6% from 68.65 to 66.90 in April. Much of the decline this month could be attributed to seasonal factors, with the Easter holiday period potentially impacting the results. Despite the fall in April, vacancies have still increased 35.7% compared to the same time last year. Both the Western Australian and Queensland job markets declined, with WA s fall for the month almost erasing the gains made in the last quarter. Vacancies in the Oil and Gas sector rose by 10.4% and for a market that has been particularly weak it is encouraging news for job seekers. The positive momentum continues for Mechanical and Production Engineers with 5 consecutive months of growth, resulting in an increase in job vacancies by 60.2% over the past 6 months. We welcome all comments and observations. Our aim is to deliver research that is timely and informative to employers, job seekers and those with an interest in the Australian Mining and Resources job market. National Job Index DFP Mining and Resources Job Index 1 Permanent Temporary and Contract National Chart 1: National Index and Job Type Analysis After 3 consecutive months of solid growth, April saw a softening of demand with the DFP Mining and Resources Job Index slipping 2.6% from 68.65 to 66.90. Much of the decrease this month can be attributed to seasonal factors. During April, 3 working days were lost and inevitably over Easter and school holidays, the employment market tends to slow down. DFP Mining and Resources Job Index April 2017 1
National Job Index (continued) March was the highest point since November 2014 and demand has fallen back to the level seen in February. The fall has taken some of the shine off the very encouraging start to the year, however demand is still up 5.3% for the last 3 months. The extended holiday period had a greater impact on the permanent market than temporary and contractor hiring. Permanent job opportunities eased 3.9%, however it has been the stronger market throughout 2017. Growth in permanent vacancies over the last 6 month remains at a very healthy 15.9%. The volume of temporary and contract job advertisements fell just 0.6% in April. Demand has increased by 4.1% over the last quarter, which is still encouraging. It will be interesting to see whether softening commodity prices will result in a more pronounced decline in opportunities for job seekers over the coming months. DFP Mining and Resources Job Index v RBA Bulk Commodity Price Index (A$) 1 RBA Bulk Commodity Price Index DFP Mining and Resources Job Index Chart 2: Comparison between the National Index and the RBA Commodity Price Index The RBA Commodity Price Index fell a further 4.6% in April taking the aggregated fall to 7.3% in the last quarter. Many observers have predicted this for some time, with queries around demand from China. Employment activity has picked up substantially over the last 12 months up a massive 35.7% from the same time last year. But the Commodity Price Index has risen by even further 57% year on year. While hiring fell at a similar pace to falling prices between 2013 and 2016 it has not grown at the same pace as prices rose. If prices fall further and profit margins are pressured again, it seems unlikely that hiring activity will catch up. DFP Mining and Resources Job Index April 2017 2
State Analysis State Analysis 1 QLD WA Other Chart 3: Comparison of State Job Indices against the National Norm The key mining and resources states both took hits in April. Queensland fell 2.8% and Western Australia a notable 5.1%. WA s fall for the month has just about wiped out all of the gains made in the last quarter. Queensland s index is still up 4.3% for the quarter and, as reported last month, demand is still relatively strong compared to all of 2015 and 2016. Likewise, the job index for WA is still 37.7% higher than a year ago. Amongst the other states, job seekers in both the Northern Territory and South Australia continue to enjoy improved job prospects in 2017. NT has had 3 successive months of growth and SA has seen monthly expansion in job vacancies since November 2106. Tasmania and Victoria have also enjoyed more job vacancies in 2017. It may be that employers in these states have been more cautious, benefiting from less competitive markets and have now acted on increased hiring confidence. The graph below provides a breakdown of the proportions of each state and territory. State Proportions 47.4% 0.2% 12.5% 2.9% 26.2% ACT NSW NT QLD All 4 states mentioned above VIC, TAS, NT and SA contribute in total less than 15% to the overall national count of job advertisements. While growth in each region is good news for local job seekers, their contribution to the overall national mining and resources job market is limited. SA 6% 4.3% TAS VIC WA 0.5% Chart 4: Analysis of Job Advertisements by State and Territory DFP Mining and Resources Job Index April 2017 3
Sub Sector Analysis Sub Sector Analysis 1 Coal and Mineral Mining Oil and Gas Extraction Metal Ore Mining Exploration Mining Services Chart 5: Analysis of Job Vacancies by Sub Sector April was a very weak month for Metal Ore Miners with demand falling 11.3%. However, this is only the second fall in 6 months and still up 25.3% over that period as demand for staff is only just off a 3 year high. It is really a matter of whether demand simply slowed over Easter after strong growth, or whether falling prices is forcing producers to hold back on hiring once more. It is a similar story in Coal and Mineral Mining, with demand down 10.3% in April. Demand has really been easing amongst coal mining employers over the last 6 months, although thermal and coking prices remain strong, assisted in part by short term supply issues after Hurricane Debbie. Where the market is changing in a more positive direction is in Oil and Gas. It hit a low in February and has since picked up well. The index for Oil and Gas rose by 10.4% alone in April. This market has been particularly weak so any improvement is very welcome news for job seekers. There has been considerable media and political attention on local retail gas prices. This may have spurred short term growth, however the Federal Governments move to introduce some targets for allocation to the domestic market is a concern for producers and the longer term consequences Sub Sector Proportions on employment are uncertain. 4.7% The contrasting industry fortunes over the last month have led to some movement in market share. Metal Ore Mining has shed 4.4% to 45.1% while Oil and Gas has risen by 2.5% to 21.4%. 6.7% 22% 45.1% 21.4% Metal Ore Mining Oil and Gas Extraction Mining Services Exploration Coal and Mineral Mining Chart 6: The Proportion of Job Vacancies by Sub Sector DFP Mining and Resources Job Index April 2017 4
High Level Occupational Analysis High Level Occupational Analysis 1 1 Operational Management Engineering Professionals Trades and Operators Business Support 0.00 Chart 7: Analysis of Job Advertisements by Occupational Group All high level occupations fell in April. The highest fall, 5.5%, was seen in Operational Management while demand for Engineering Professionals eased just 0.6%. After growth in mid 2016, the Operational Management job scene has been fairly static over the last 6 months. It remains the weakest index at 55.71. Despite the small setback last month, Engineering has had a bullish run rising 38.7% in 6 months and 56.8% over 12 months, albeit from a very low base. Demand for Trades and Operators has been steady but far from spectacular in the last 6 months. Last September the index hit 80 for the first time in over 2 years and it has stagnated - down 1.2% over 6 months and up just 1% in 3 months. This is a good level of demand compared to other occupations and very positive compared to the declines experienced in 2014. It is somewhat disappointing that there has been so little growth more recently while prices and production levels have risen. DFP Mining and Resources Job Index April 2017 5
Operational Management Operational Management Analysis 1 Production and Project Management Technical Services and Maintenance Management Geologists, and other Sciences Occupational Health and Welfare Chart 8: Analysis of Job Vacancies across Operational Management Occupations The rise in demand for Geologists (and related sciences) has come to an abrupt halt. Growth in 8 of 9 months and a peak in demand seen last month has not been sustained. The fall of 15.7% was sufficient to wipe out most of the gains seen in 2017. On a positive note, job opportunities are still stronger than at any time in 2015 and 2016. The story is very similar for Technical Services and Maintenance Managers. A very poor April saw vacancies fall to their lowest level in 2017. Fortunately, from a longer term perspective, growth over the past 6 months is still positive at 29.4% and year on year is still a healthy 41.4%. Given the generally lacklustre Easter holiday impacted market, it was welcome news that job opportunities for OHS workers rose in April. It has been the weakest performer amongst Operational Management occupations for some time but has now overtaken Production and Project Management. DFP Mining and Resources Job Index April 2017 6
Engineering Professionals Engineering Professionals Analysis 1 1 Mechanical and Production Engineers Mining and Petroleum Engineers Other Engineers Engineering Trades and Technicians 0.00 Chart 9: Analysis of Job Vacancies across Engineering Occupations The great start to the year enjoyed by Mechanical and Production Engineers continues with a 1.4% rise in April. Whilst a smaller rise than previous months, it still has resulted in 5 consecutive months of growth and demand is at the highest seen since early 2015. Unfortunately a similar run enjoyed by Engineering Trades and Technicians has faltered. Demand eased just 2%, which brought to an end 6 months of growth totalling 26.9%. Job opportunities for Technicians and Tradesmen remain the strongest they have been since late 2014. Once again Mining and Petroleum Engineers are still finding the market very tough. Vacancies slipped a further 1.9% in April. After a strong recovery in the second half of 2016, much of that momentum has been lost and the trend appears to be down once more. DFP Mining and Resources Job Index April 2017 7
Trades and Operators Trades and Operator Analysis 1 1 Construction, Electrical and Mechanical Trades Drillers, Miners and Moving Plant Operators Riggers and Labourers Chart 10: Analysis of Job Vacancies across Mining and Resources Trades and Operators There has been a marked divergence in job prospects for Trades and Operators in 2017. While demand for Riggers and Labourers has risen considerably, demand for Drillers, Miners and Moving Plant Operators has fallen. Demand for the former now sits above 100 for the first time since February 2014, helped by a 7.2% rise in April. Demand for Drillers, Miners and Moving Plant Operators fell 9.2% in April and is now down 17.8% for the quarter. Their index, at 65.34 has fallen below that of Construction, Electrical and Mechanical Trades which also slipped 3.8% in April. Both enjoyed a strong finish to 2016 which has not been maintained this year. Data supplied under Copyright by HRO2 Research Pty Ltd DFP Mining and Resources Job Index April 2017 8 1300 337 000 dfp.com.au