Ipswich Follow-up committee Belspo-Brussels 15/5/2018
Poverty and in-work poverty In-work poverty in Europe in 2016 Poverty in Europe in 2016 20 16 20 12 16 8 12 8 4 4 0 FI CZ BE IE DK HR NL MT NO SI SK SE FR AT CY LV UK LT DE EU EU28 HU EE PT PL BG IT LU ES EL RO 0 IS CH FI MT FR AT UK SE CY LU EE EU27 CZ SK NO NL SI DK HU BE IE DE EU EU28 HR LV EA EA19 PT BG MK ES RS EA18 PL LT IT EL RO
Trends Austerity, budgetary restraint Working hours polarization, long-term unemployment Flexibility, bogus self-emploment, precarisation Competitiveness, globalized economy De-unionization, platform economy Technological change, job polarization Migration, feminization, discrimination => Can we fend off in-work poverty in Belgium? 10 8 6 4 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Belgium Germany Netherlands France
Policy choices Trilemma Solve 2/3: Wage Other trade-offs Direct benefits vs in-work benefits Budget deficit Unemployment Low wages poverty line L D U D G N F X Jobless poverty L S Market distribution vs fiscal redistribution Flexibility or working hours polarization In-work poverty Employment Protection insiders or including outsiders
Social policy Wage Financial work incentives and the long- term unemployed: the case of Belgium (Diego Collado, Dieter Vandelanootte, Bea Cantillon) The effect of tax-benefit policy changes on the trilemma of welfare reform in Belgium and Sweden: a decomposition analysis (Diego Collado, Bea Cantillon) Policy choice Increase benefits Lower taxes Need both in order not to increase dependency trap Incentivize work through labour supply (eq. demand shift) to f Increase minima to G poverty line L D U L S G F N X D Jobless poverty In-work poverty Employment
Precariousness Wage Horemans, J. (2017). Atypical employment and in-work poverty. In H. Lohmann & I. Marx (Eds.), Handbook on In-Work Poverty (pp. 146 170). Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. L D L S Horemans, J., & Marx, I. (2017). Poverty and Material Deprivation among the Self-Employed in Europe: An Exploration of a Relatively Uncharted Landscape (Discussion Paper No. 11007) (p. 60). Bonn: IZA. Flexibility Shift demand to F through flexibility Lower wages to N through (bogus) self-employment Insufficient income: risk of poverty Temporary workers rely on state compensation Part-time workers rely on household poverty line U G F N X D Jobless poverty In-work poverty Employment
Collective bargaining Wage The effect of minimum wages on low-wage work (Sem Vandekerckhove, Maarten Goos, Guy Van Gyes) Poverty consequences of job polarization (Sem Vandekerckhove, Maarten Goos, Guy Van Gyes) Avoid low-wage work through minimum wages Monopsony wages (D-N) Insider-outsider dynamics (N-U) poverty line L D U D G N F X L S Minimum wages close to equilibrium, endogenous In-work poverty Jobless poverty National minimum wage catches up with growing low-wage sectors Employment
Discrimination Wage Kampelmann, S., & Rycx, F. (2016). Wage discrimination against immigrants: measurement with firm-level productivity data. IZA Journal of Migration, 5(1), 15. L D L S L union fait la force? Evidence for wage depression in firms with high diversity (Stephan Kampelmann, François Rycx) Wage gaps Differences in productivity: N-F Statistical and taste discrimination: D-N poverty line U D G N F X Jobless poverty For migrants as well as women In-work poverty Attenuated by collective bargaining Employment
Conclusions A different policy mix may yield a similar outcome: the choice is often political rather than economic. The labour market in Belgium is fair (to women, migrants, short-term unemployed): not the focus of the poverty debate. Resilience is not guaranteed: de-unionization, sectoral shifts. The residual working poor should be targeted on the same conditions as the jobless poor (no work-conditionality or LM policies).s
Conference Full day : 10:00-15:00 Session 1 (2h): presentations + comments from institutions (CRB, UNIA, POD MI, ) Social policy Precariousness Collective bargaining Discrimination Session 2 (1h): comments from international experts Session 3 (1h): panel debate with political study departments Timing?