Rational Expectations: The impacts of the Panama Canal Expansion on Gulf Coast ports

Transcription

1 Rational Expectations: The impacts of the Panama Canal Expansion on Gulf Coast ports Michael Bomba Center for Economic Development and Research University of North Texas

2 Justifications for the Panama Canal Expansion Growing global trade volumes Changing supply chains for retailers; decentralization of distribution centers Alternate routing of cargo away from Ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach Carriers are using larger ships to lower costs, which exceed the handling capability of the Panama Canal Photo Credit:

3 Direction of Trade Transiting the Panama Canal 25, Long Tons of Cargo (in Thousands) 2, 15, 1, 5, FY 2 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24 FY 25 FY 26 FY 27 FY 28 FY 29 FY 21 FY 211 Pacific to Atlantic Tonnage Atlantic to Pacific Tonnage Source: Panama Canal Authority, 213

4 Panama Canal Trade Handled by Ports in the Eastern United States 9, Eastern U.S. Exports 7, Eastern U.S. Imports Long Tons of Cargo (in Thousands) 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Long Tons of Cargo (in Thousands) 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, FY 2 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24 FY 25 FY 26 FY 27 FY 28 FY 29 FY 21 FY 211 FY 212 FY 2 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24 FY 25 FY 26 FY 27 FY 28 FY 29 FY 21 FY 211 FY 212 Gulf Ports South Atlantic Ports North Atlantic Ports Great Lakes Ports Other U.S. Ports Source: Panama Canal Authority, 213 Gulf Ports North Atlantic Ports Other U.S. Ports South Atlantic Ports Great Lakes Ports

5 Destination of Cargo Transiting the Panama Canal from U.S. Gulf Ports 7, Long Tons of Cargo (in Thousands) 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, FY 2 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24 FY 25 FY 26 FY 27 FY 28 FY 29 FY 21 FY 211 FY 212 Asia South America Central America West Coast Canada Oceania United States

6 Origin of Cargo Transiting the Panama Canal to U.S. Gulf Ports 3, Long Tons of Cargo (in Thousands) 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, FY 2 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24 FY 25 FY 26 FY 27 FY 28 FY 29 FY 21 FY 211 FY 212 Asia South America Central America Oceania United States Canada

7 Panama Canal Trade Handled by Gulf Coast Ports Exports to Asia Imports from Asia 45, 25, Long Tons of Cargo (in Thousands) 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Long Tons of Cargo (in Thousands) 2, 15, 1, 5, FY 2 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24 FY 25 FY 26 FY 27 FY 28 FY 29 FY 21 FY 211 FY 212 FY 2 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24 FY 25 FY 26 FY 27 FY 28 FY 29 FY 21 FY 211 FY 212 Source: Panama Canal Authority, 213 Source: Panama Canal Authority, 213

8 Panama Canal Trade Handled by Gulf Coast Ports Exports to Western South America Imports from Western South America 14, 6, Long Tons of Cargo (in Thousands) 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Long Tons of Cargo (in Thousands) 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, FY 2 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24 FY 25 FY 26 FY 27 FY 28 FY 29 FY 21 FY 211 FY 212 FY 2 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24 FY 25 FY 26 FY 27 FY 28 FY 29 FY 21 FY 211 FY 212 Source: Panama Canal Authority, 213 Source: Panama Canal Authority, 213

9 Panama Canal Trade Handled by Gulf Coast Ports Exports to Mexico and Central America Imports from Mexico and Central America 12, 1,6 Long Tons of Cargo (in Thousands) 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Long Tons of Cargo (in Thousands) 1,4 1,2 1, FY 2 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24 FY 25 FY 26 FY 27 FY 28 FY 29 FY 21 FY 211 FY 212 FY 2 FY 21 FY 22 FY 23 FY 24 FY 25 FY 26 FY 27 FY 28 FY 29 FY 21 FY 211 FY 212 Source: Panama Canal Authority, 213

10 Future Texas trade with Asia, South America, and Central America will grow to coincide with population and economic growth Carrier trends towards larger ships will require improvements to port infrastructure to remain competitive The trend towards larger vessels includes all cargo types General Findings

11 Share of Total Intermodal Containers Handled at U.S. Ports 1% 9% 7.% 7.% 7.5% 7.3% 7.4% 7.7% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Other Gulf Coast Ports Atlantic Coast Ports Pacific Coast Ports 2% 1% % Source: U.S. Maritime Administration, 213b.

12 Intermodal Containers Handled at Gulf Ports 2,5, Number of TEUs Handled in the U.S. Gulf by U.S. Customs Port 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Galveston, TX Tampa, FL Panama City, FL Freeport, TX Mobile, AL Gulfport, MS New Orleans, LA Houston, TX Source: U.S. Maritime Administration, 213b.

13 Intermodal Cargoes Unlikely that the largest containerships will immediately call on Gulf Coast ports Texas market dominates the Gulf but is too small to be among the most important ports of call One or more transshipment centers will likely develop in the Caribbean. The expanded Panama Canal s transit tolls, will strongly influence future ship routing by carriers Photo Credit:

14 Agricultural Products Expanded canal offers lower transportation costs for agricultural goods but production costs are increasing Texas agriculture producers more likely to remain competitive than to acquire new markets from the expansion Photo Credit:

15 Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Currently 8.8% of world fleet can operate in the canal, will increase to 88% of fleet after expansion 1 approved LNG export terminal in the U.S. Gulf, 9 proposed, and 12 potential facilities Extraordinary profit potential for exporters Photo Credit: GE Reports, 213.

16 Landed LNG Prices November 213 Location Price ($US/MMBtu) Lake Charles, LA - USA $3.15 Altamira, Mexico $16.4 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil $14.65 Bahia Blanca, Argentina $15.65 Korea $15.65 China $15.65 Japan $15.25 United Kingdom $1.66 Belgium $1.4 Source: FERC, 214 and Waterborne Energy, Inc., 214.

17 Transportation Industry Trends and Issues Overcapacity is an ongoing problem for carriers as ship size grows New pollution laws will affect carrier costs Railroads intend to compete aggressively against allwater services Trucking, especially longdistance drivers, will be impacted by Hours of Service rules Ports are finding it difficult to predict future outcomes from the canal expansion Photo Credit:

18 Key Findings from Port Interviews Latin America may offer opportunities for new niche markets, but they will require infrastructure investment Smaller Texas ports should expand their marketing activities into Latin America, including Pacific Coast ports Last mile landside infrastructure issues are still challenges at many ports Photo Credit : Journal of Commerce

19 Panama Canal Wildcards Canal expansion takes much longer than planned Continued drought in the Central United States affects agricultural output Price of natural gas drops due to fall in demand or increased supply LNG routed to Europe for political reasons Asian and Latin American markets decline

20 Contact Info Michael S. Bomba, Ph.D. Center for Economic Development and Research University of North Texas 1155 Union Circle #31469 Denton, Texas 7623 (94) voice Photo Credit:

21 Panama Canal Expansion

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