MANAGING NUCLEAR MISSILE COMPETITIONS BETWEEN INDIA, PAKISTAN AND CHINA
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1 MANAGING NUCLEAR MISSILE COMPETITIONS BETWEEN INDIA, PAKISTAN AND CHINA
2 OVERVIEW OF MISSILE INVENTORIES
3 CHINA BALLISTIC MISSILES CATE-GORY DESIG-NATION RANGE PAYLOAD NOS. SRBMs (< 1000 KMS) DF-15 / M-9 / CSST Kgs; 350 kt DF-11 / M-11 / CSS-X kgs; 350 kt MRBMs *DF-3 / CSS kgs; 3.3 MT DF-21/21A /CSS-5 (Mod1&2) kgs; 350kT IRBMs *DF- 4 / CSS Kgs; 3.3MT ICBMs *DF-5/5A kgs; 4-5 MT 20 DF-31/ 31A 7200 / (?); 200 Kt MIRV(?) < 20 SLBM *JL1 / kgs; 350kT 12 JL kgs; 300kT) 60(?)
4 CHINA CRUISE MISSILES CATEGORY DESIG- NATION RANGE PAYLOAD NOS. LACM ALCM+ GLCM 3000 kms (?) Kh-55 / AS-15 (KENT) HN-1/ HN / kgs; 300 (?) 90 kt DH YJ TIANJIN (?) ASCMs YJ STYX / CSS-N- 2 SUNBURN / SS-N-22 SIZZLER N- 27 SS (?)
5 CHINA MISSILES MAIN FEATURES missiles, majority short range, conventionally armed 40 ICBMs, ranges kms M/ IRBMs, all land-based Only SLBM (JL-1) not successful New SLBM tested, awaiting Jin Class SSBN. Missiles are not targeted at specific countries in peacetime. Prior to mutual No-targeting agreement, half of ICBM inventory was targeting US Chinese missiles based on original buy-outs from the USSR/Russia. Modern Russian-supplied ASCMs About 120 missiles of the total inventory are nuclear capable.
6 PAKISTAN - MISSILES TYPE DESIGNATION PROPULSION RANGE KMS PAY- LOAD NOS. SRBM HATF 1/ 1A / SOLID FUEL 60-80/ HATF -2 / SHADOZ SOLID FUEL HATF -3/DF-11 / M11 GHAZNAVI SOLID FUEL HATF- 4 DF-15 SHAHEEN SOLID FUEL (?) HATF-6/M18(?) / SHAHEEN- II SOLID FUEL HATFV/GHAURI /NODONG LIQUID FUEL *GHAURI II LIQUID FUEL 1700 *GHAURI III LIQUID FUEL LACM HATF-VII/DH10 /BABUR 700 ALCM HATF VIII / RA AD 350
7 PAKISTAN MISSILES MAIN FEATURES Chinese and N Korean assistance Efforts under way for cruise missile- delivery systems Chinese selectively abide by the MTCR; e.g. air-launched missiles are excluded. Currently Pak still dependent on China and DPRK for propellent, critical components and technological aspects. The Ghaznavi (/M11) and Shaheen-I are believed to be operational. Shaheen II development is complete and induction and service trials may soon commence. Ghauri II development is likely to be completed soon. Pak also keeps missiles and warheads de-mated as well as separated. Warheads are believed to stored in disassembled state
8 INDIA - MISSILES Name/ Alt. Missile /Propulsion Warhead Payloa d Range Prithvi-I/ SS-150 Ballistic/ Liquid fuel Conv/ Nuclear 1, Prithvi-II/ SS-250 Ballistic/ Liquid fuel Conv/ Nuclear Dhanush/Prithvi- III/ SS-350 Ballistic/ Liquid fuel Conv/ Nuclear NK 350 Sh / Sm Agni- (TD) Ballistic /2Stage Hybrid Nos Nuclear 1,000 1,200-1, Agni-I Ballistic/ Solid fuel Nuclear 1, NK Agni-II Ballistic/ Solid fuel Nuclear 1,000 2,000-2,500 NK *Agni-III Ballistic/ Solid fuel Nuclear NK 3,500-4,000 *Agni-V Ballistic/ Solid fuel Nuclear NK 5,000 BrahMos/ PJ10 Ballistic/ 2 Stage Hybrid Engine Conv Sh/Sm/Gr/Air *Nirbhay Cruise Conv NK 1,000 km *K-15 Sagarika 2 stage SLBM Conv/ Nuclear km *Shourya Ballistic/Solid/Canist erised Conv/ Nuclear > km
9 MISSILE PROGRAMME DRIVERS - CHINA The Taiwan Issue China-US Relations. Relations with Russia. Japan AND South Korea. India.
10 MISSILE PROGRAMME DRIVERS - PAKISTAN Indo-centric threat perception Perception of Indian superiority in conventional forces Nuclear Deterrent meant to deter conventional attack Long land border, Navy irrelevant Major Indian value targets within range of fighter-bombers
11 MISSILE PROGRAMME DRIVERS - INDIA Long land border with both China and Pakistan History of territorial wars with both Both nuclear weapon states Strong China- Pakistan relations Transfer of missile and nuclear technology India s NFU policy Triad doctrine
12 MISSILE COMPETITION With China: India will cope, not compete Competition only applies to Pakistan and India Use of launches to convey political signals Ind-Pak-China triangle a complication
13 RISK FACTORS If Missile force over-stretched, C3 will be inadequate Political launches can be misinterpreted Conventional missile attack, nuclear response? Non state actors
14 EFFECT OF DOCTRINE NFU results in diversification of delivery systems First use option creates uncertainty Dispersal loosens control Dispersal strains C3, may result in predelegation
15 MEASURES TO CONTROL MISSILE COMPETITION Discussions to reach agreed force levels Risk reduction Centres Eschew conventional SRBMs No political launches Control non-state actors Include China
16 THANK YOU
This report was prepared by the National Air and Space Intelligence Center with significant contributions from the Defense Intelligence Agency
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