CRJ581 Case Study: DRNC Scenario 1. The Democratic-Republican National Convention Miami, Florida (Explanation of the Overarching

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1 CRJ581 Case Study: DRNC Scenario 1 Required Readings The Democratic-Republican National Convention Miami, Florida (Explanation of the Overarching Theme) Nuñez, E. L. (2012). Imagery as a Factor for Assessing Risk Background The following story is a fictional account of planning and preparation leading up to the mythical Democratic-Republican National Convention (DRNC) event in Miami, Florida. The story is loosely based on an amalgamation of real life occurrences in the lead up to the Free Trade Area of the Americas conference in Miami, Florida in The names of all the characters in the story are fictional. As you read the story, keep in mind the risk factors that event planners must take into consideration when formulating the strategic and operational plans for the event. At the end of the story, you will be asked to respond to several questions related to this scenario. Miami-Dade Police has been designated as the lead local agency and lead operational planner for the event security. This policy differs significantly from the 2003 FTAA in which the City of Miami was designated as the lead local agency. Since this event meets the criteria of a National Special Security Event (NSSE), the U.S. Secret Service has been designated as the lead coordinating agency with overarching statutory authority for the planning and execution of the event. Supervisory Special Agent Samantha Salerno has been appointed as the lead agent in-charge for the event. So far a few major planning decisions have been made. The American Airlines Arena in Downtown Miami has been selected as the location for the main event of the convention. Because of its proximity to the entrance to the Port of Miami, the selection of this arena poses some challenges regarding the balance between buffer zone security and the normal, day-to-day business of the Port, which includes cargo traffic, as well as cruise ship passenger traffic. Moreover, the local merchants of the adjacent stores in the Bayside Marketplace will also be affected by the week-long event. The high likelihood of protestors demonstrating at the event adds another significant factor to the policy planning process. Stakeholder maps and organization charts of information and collaborative networks are provided for your reference. Also included are two satellite photographs of Downtown Miami with overlays designating the secure perimeter and the maritime exclusionary zone for the event. Case Study The South Florida JTTF and Fusion Center The South Florida Joint Terrorism Task Force (JTTF) is an inter-agency group dedicated to the investigation of terrorist organizations. Members of the JTTF include the U.S. Attorney s Office for the

2 CRJ581 Case Study: DRNC Scenario 2 Southern District of Florida; the FBI; U.S. Immigrations and Customs Enforcement; U.S. Secret Service; the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives; the Internal Revenue Service; the Bureau of Prisons; the Florida Department of Law Enforcement; Miami Dade Police Department; City of Miami Police Department; Broward Sheriff s Office; Palm Beach County s Sheriff s Office; Ft. Lauderdale Police Department; Hollywood Police Department; and the Miramar Police Department (DOJ, 2009). The JTTF has played an integral role in the arrest and prosecution of several terrorist cells operating in the South Florida region. In , the JTTF conducted an investigation which led to the arrest and conviction of a self-made home grown group that later became known as the Liberty City Six. This group planned and plotted to detonate bombs in several American cities, including the Sears Tower in Chicago, Illinois. The group considered itself a cell of the greater al Qaida network, and believed they were working in coordination with the worldwide terror organization (DOJ, 2009). In 2011, a JTTF investigation and wire tap resulted in the arrest of a local Imam from mosque in Miami named Hafiz Muhammad Sher Ali Khan. The Imam was charged with providing aid to terror organizations associated with the Taliban and al Qaida. Also arrested for terrorism conspiracy were two of his sons, Izhar Khan, Imam at the Jamaat Al-Mu mineen mosque in Margate, Florida, and Irfan Khan (Miami Herald, 2011). The JTTF has also played an integral support role by providing valuable intelligence on terrorist groups to planners of large scale special events such as the Summit of the Americas, the Super Bowls, the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), the Presidential Debates, and now the DRNC National Convention scheduled for upcoming year. The South Florida Fusion Center was established in 2002, as a direct result of the September 11 attacks the year prior. The Fusion Center was located in southern Broward County, and served as a meeting place for the JTTF investigators and as an intelligence gathering and dissemination hub for the entire South Florida region. The South Florida center was part of a broader national network of fusion center that shared information and attempted to connect the dots in order to streamline the information flow process. Preliminary Planning for the DRNC The Democratic-Republican National Convention was twelve months away and Major Louis Warren had been chosen by Miami-Dade Police Director Melanie Duncan to be the lead planner and incident commander for the event. Major Warren had participated in other large scale events throughout his career, but this was the first time that he would be the top person in charge. Major Warren had recently graduated with a master s degree in management/public administration. Along the way, he had learned to appreciate the importance of a methodical approach to case study analysis which formed much of the regimen of his master s studies. He had learned the difference between qualitative and quantitative studies, and how both were important to the understanding of the world around us. Warren had also worked in the Department s Criminal Intelligence Bureau for a couple of years prior to this, and had developed a considerable understanding of the importance of actionable intelligence for the success of operations.

3 CRJ581 Case Study: DRNC Scenario 3 There was one more important, but less obvious influence from Major Warren s past that contributed to his mind set for the DRNC. Warren had been a big baseball fan ever since he was a kid in middle school. He could recite by memory the batting averages, number of home runs, RBIs, pitchers ERAs, and an endless stream of statistics of his favorite players. From baseball, Warren had learned the importance of competitive matchups based on historical statistics. It was not enough to match a lefty against a lefty to try to strike out a batter in the ninth inning. Warren liked how modern baseball managers kept track of the statistics of each individual player as they matched up against each individual opponent. It was in these micro numbers that truly indicated the competitive advantage of one player over another. It was a lesson that would shape his approach to the planning of the DRNC. Major Warren knew that planning for the DRNC was fundamentally the same as planning for the Super Bowl or the FTAA Conference that he had previously participated in, albeit in a much smaller role. Planning for these large-scale special events requires preparation for a myriad of potential threats, ranging from large crowd management, to passive resistance protestors, to violent Anarchists, to bonifide terrorists at the extreme end of the spectrum. Planners also have to contend with man-made accidental threats such as hazardous material spills and airplane and train crashes. Natural disasters must also be taken into account. After all, the DRNC is taking place in August, and that is historically one of the worst months for hurricanes in the South Florida area. When planning for the DRNC, Warren knew that he had to take into account all of these potential threats. In other words, he would have to take an all hazards approach for the preparation, response, and recovery of any incidents associated with the DRNC event. Warren knew that taking an all hazards approach to planning did not mean that every possible threat would be dealt with. While his manpower and equipment resources for the event will be augmented heavily by other local, state, and federal agencies, there are not enough people to cover all the threats, all the time. By necessity, Warren has to work with a finite amount of resources. Since you cannot be in all places at all times, Warren knew that he had to take a fresh look at the risks that he faced for this particular event. While all special event planning is fundamentally the same, each event has its unique characteristics. Therefore, Warren knew that before any other planning took place, he had to get a grasp on the relative risks likely to be encountered during this event. Risk management is about putting ones resources at the right place, at the right time, for an optimal effect. This is sort of like the statistical matchups that baseball managers consider when they decide to bring in a relief pitcher to face a pinch hitter in the later innings of a game. In order to take advantage of the statistical matchups, Warren knew that he had to conduct a fresh risk analysis in the context of the DRNC. The Risk Analysis Major Warren assembled a small workgroup to conduct a risk analysis of the potential threats associated with the DRNC special event. The workgroup was comprised of Detective Mike Warner, Miami-Dade Police, Homeland Security Bureau and JTTF member; Lieutenant Fred Hayes, of the Miami- Dade Police Special Patrol Bureau; and Mary Straight, Intelligence Analyst, South Florida Fusion Center.

4 CRJ581 Case Study: DRNC Scenario 4 This small workgroup would be augmented by a cadre of interdisciplinary personnel from various law enforcement and emergency management agencies, but the three members mentioned above formed the core of the workgroup. The purpose of the workgroup was to conduct a comprehensive risk analysis as it relates to the DRNC, and then to report the findings to Major Warren, who in turn would report to his Director, Melanie Duncan, who is a sitting member of the DRNC Security Subcommittee (see the attached DRNC Org Charts). The end deliverable of this initial risk analysis is to quantify and rank order the risks associated with the DRNC so that planners can make rational decisions on how best to deploy their resources. In order to determine risk, analysts must assess the likelihood of a threat occurring, as well as the consequences associated with the threat becoming actualized. Simply stated, Risk = Likelihood X Consequence. Some threats are likely to occur, but are not very consequential. An example of a high likelihood, low consequence threat is traffic gridlock during the event. Other threats are less likely to occur, but are very high in consequence. An example of a low likelihood, high consequence threat would be a nuclear detonation at the Port of Miami during the DRNC. The highest risks are posed by those threats that are both likely and high in consequence. An example of a high likelihood, high consequence threat is a hurricane (especially in South Florida in August). The workgroup has divided its labor into three areas of analysis. Intelligence Analyst Mary Straight s job is to assess the consequence factors associated with the DRNC. Her job is to assess the intrinsic and symbolic values of all assets and critical infrastructure associated with the event. JTTF and Homeland Security Detective Warner s job is to assess the threats associated with the DRNC. He will have to work closely with Lieutenant Hayes, who has the most knowledge of the DRNC area of operations, and knows the vulnerabilities of the layout (see the attached DRNC layout map). It is the interplay between the perceived threats and the identified vulnerabilities that determines the likelihood aspect of the risk formula. Detective Warner, Lieutenant Hayes, and Analyst Straight will conduct their threat, vulnerability, and consequence assessments respectively and then will meet to combine their work into an overall risk analysis that takes into account the likelihood and the consequence associated with each of the perceived threats. Their work will form the basis for the initial risk assessment report that will be provided to Major Warren and the Security Subcommittee. This is only the first risk assessment for the event, and it can be expected that there will be many more to come as the event draws closer. Assignment Instructions For the purpose of this assignment, you are to review the threat, vulnerability, and consequence assessment reports provided to you by the risk analysis workgroup. Your job is to weigh the relative risks associated with the DRNC, and to report to Major Warren your recommendations.

5 CRJ581 Case Study: DRNC Scenario 5 In a narrative essay not to exceed 1,500 words, identify and rank order the risks associated with the DRNC. Explain your methodology and how you arrived at your conclusions. Your report is important because it will form the basis for planning the distribution of manpower and equipment resources for the DRNC special event. Refer to the Grading Rubric to see how your instructor will grade your assignment. Post your essay in the Assignment Dropbox no later than 11:59 p.m. on Sunday. Resources: The DRNC Convention Overarching Theme PDF PowerPoint Org Charts for the DRNC Host Committee and Subcommittees (PDF) PDF PowerPoint of the Stakeholders for the DRNC PDF PowerPoint of the Information and Collaborative Networks for the DRNC PDF PowerPoint of the DRNC Layout in Downtown Miami Threat Assessment Report Provided by Detective Mike Warner Vulnerability Assessment Report Provided by Lieutenant Fred Hayes Consequence Assessment Report Provided by Intelligence Analyst Mary Straight References Department of Justice (2009). DOJ Press Release: Leader of Liberty City Six Convicted on All Counts, Four Others Convicted on Multiple Counts, and One Defendant Acquitted on Charges of Conspiring to Support Al Qaeda, Attack Targets in the United States, May 12, Retrieved on June 2, 2011, from Miami Herald (2011). Feds indict Miami imam, family members on charges of supporting Taliban, June 2, Retrieved on June 2, 2011 from