A European Net Assessment of the People s Liberation Army (Navy)

Transcription

1 Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies Conference Report A European Net Assessment of the People s Liberation Army (Navy) Prepared by Peter Roberts

2 A European Net Assessment of the People s Liberation Army (Navy) Prepared by Peter Roberts Conference Report, May 2017 Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies

3 ii A European Net Assessment of the People s Liberation Army (Navy) 185 years of independent thinking on defence and security The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) is the world s oldest and the UK s leading defence and security think tank. Its mission is to inform, influence and enhance public debate on a safer and more stable world. RUSI is a research-led institute, producing independent, practical and innovative analysis to address today s complex challenges. Since its foundation in 1831, RUSI has relied on its members to support its activities. Together with revenue from research, publications and conferences, RUSI has sustained its political independence for 185 years. London Brussels Nairobi Doha Tokyo Washington, DC The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s), and do not reflect the views of RUSI or any other institution. Published in 2017 by the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No-Derivatives 4.0 International Licence. For more information, see < Conference Report, May Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies Whitehall London SW1A 2ET United Kingdom +44 (0) RUSI is a registered charity (No )

4 RUSI CONVENED a conference on 23 February 2017 to consider the rise of China s naval forces, both conventional, in the form of the People s Liberation Army (Navy) (PLA(N)), and the maritime militia. The event took place at the Institute s Whitehall building with more than 100 attendees from academia, industry, the military and various parliamentarians. Speakers from across Europe, Asia and the US examined the growth of capability and the ambition of China through the prisms of international relations, global politics and economics, and military balance. The conference found that there were contradictions between China s foreign policy statements and financial investment in its naval forces. Beijing s statements about peaceful coexistence, mutually beneficial growth and belief in the global system seem at odds with its current approach towards the rule of law, intellectual property rights, human rights and ecological damage. It is little wonder, therefore, that many are concerned about the future direction of Chinese foreign and security policy, given that Beijing is starting to amass the systems and tools necessary to challenge the global order from a military perspective. The shift in manpower and investment within the People s Liberation Army (PLA) is most significant as a statement of intent, since Beijing has not made its ambitions in foreign affairs public. In 1980, the PLA changed direction on force design and capability development shifting from a land-centric view to one that largely became centred on the PLA(N). China is moving away from having a naval force designed for policing and deterring within its own territorial and coastal waters to one that has deep water military vessels capable of projecting national power on a global scale. It is a radical and deliberate step that will, by 2020, create the world s second-biggest ocean going navy, with policy aspirations to dominate the oceans (including the Atlantic), and counter US hegemony at sea. Evidence for PLA(N) s Growth China s naval power is vested within the PLA(N), coast guard, border force and fisheries enforcement agencies. The last three were classified as forming a maritime militia (CMM). The conference was briefed on the development of a 500-ship navy within the PLA(N) by 2050, against a US aspiration of 355 ships. The CMM is also projected to consist of the same number of assets within the same timeframe. In addition, the conference was updated on Chinese naval port facility expansion in the South China Sea (including the basing of radars, missiles and fighter aircraft), Africa, South East Asia and potentially South America. Two theories of the PLA(N) s development were outlined. The first centred on the conceptual development of the force, detailing the expansion of the PLA(N) through the use of naval theories about sea denial and control to explain the acquisition of warfare capabilities and future growth strategy. The second covered the material expansion of the PLA(N), demonstrating the shift from coastal warfare vessels, adaptation for active defence and finally into a transformation era

5 2 A European Net Assessment of the People s Liberation Army (Navy) for a true power projection force. Both theories of naval development acknowledged the key roles played by General Liu Huaqing (also known as the father of the modern Chinese navy) and, later, Admiral Wu Shengli (Commander of the PLA(N) ) both of whom continue to exert a significant influence on the growth plans for the PLA(N) and in the wider development of national strategy. Explaining Chinese Force Design Participants debated why the Chinese wanted to develop this kind of force design. What challenge, threat or context were triggering this move? Few satisfactory answers emerged, except for the stated Chinese ambition of retaking Taiwan, by force if necessary. Other explanations included China s Six War doctrine1 (in which the areas identified in the 1938 map of shame are recaptured), and the popular Island Chain theory2 of Chinese foreign policy (that sees the gradual ability to exercise sea control over areas bounded by island chains; Taiwan first, Guam later, and Hawaii a distant dream). Both these explanations forecast that by 2035, China will be the dominant force in the Pacific and, by 2050, the top global maritime power with the ability to re-craft international law and norms at will. Notable within this analysis and the subsequent discussions was the theory of a neo-mahanian approach to President Xi Jinping s foreign policy. The research paper for the conference outlined the theory that departing from the maritime policies of previous Chinese President Hu Jintao Xi appeared to see a greater role for the PLA(N), with a lesser role for the CMM, fishing and merchant marine fleets. In doing so, the rational deduction (following the strategy espoused by naval theorist Alfred Mahan) was a future large-scale decisive engagement between Chinese forces and the US Navy at a time and place of Beijing s choosing. Considering the scale of forces alone, no outright victory for either side was the best the US could hope for. Challenges to China s Naval Capability Development Yet the conference also heard that China s naval forces faced a series of serious challenges in meeting its goals to become a global military power, capable of deterring and coercing others. While it will achieve quantitative superiority, and burgeoning capabilities in air power, space, technical systems and spread of capabilities, the Chinese naval forces still represent three navies: a coastal force; a land-based strike force; and a blue-water capability. Before 2025, China s naval leadership faces serious challenges in achieving the potential of that force due to a shortfall in adequate doctrine, the delivery of anti-ship cruise missiles in sufficient numbers against manoeuvring targets, kill chain decision cycle coherence. and training. 1. Geoff Wade, China s Six Wars in the Next 50 Years, The Strategist, blog of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 26 November Bernard D Cole, Reflections on China s Maritime Strategy: Island Chains and the Classics, paper presented to the Maritime Security, Seapower, and Trade Conference, US Naval College, Newport, RI, March 2014.

6 Peter Roberts 3 After 2025, when the PLA(N) is due to have shifted to a doctrine of sea control, the main challenges are likely to emanate from coordinating the sheer number of vessels, the lack of a central operating concept and doctrine (the philosophy of the force), ill-equipped commanders from unit level to high command, a lack of understanding for their own rules of combat, and an institutional lack of experience in combat. Common to these challenges will be both the leadership of the PLA(N) over the coming decade and the planned shift to a force that relies on shared information which enables rapid decisionmaking. This could become a key vulnerability for the Chinese military, given its current reliance on a centrally driven command and approval process. Conclusions Given the evidence outlined at the conference, delegates were left with the question of what Europe might do, or be expected to do, in response. While the conference found that the rise of China s naval power was much larger than many had appreciated, it left several questions unanswered. How will China use its newfound power? Does the arrival of a 500-ship Chinese navy pose a direct threat to Europe? Is the CMM likely to form the core of an indirect warfare challenge to global free-trade shipping, on which Europe relies? How could future Alliance constructs be strengthened in order to build a coherent challenge to China s naval forces? Would Russia be an ally for the West, a Chinese partner or an opportunistic neutral player in the Pacific over the coming decades? What constitutes a Chinese definition of militarisation and does it differ from a Western view? To what end might this be helpful in explaining military deployments across the China Seas and throughout the One Belt, One Road/Maritime Silk Road plans? Peter Roberts is the Director of Military Sciences at RUSI.