we gather information about the social care sector

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1 Kent, Surrey and Sussex Local Education & Training Board Report, 2013 From the National Minimum Dataset for Social Care (NMDS-SC) January 2013 we gather information about the social care sector nmds-sc

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3 Foreword Skills for Care and the Association off Directors of Adult Social Services (ADASS) are working in partnership to raise the profile and participation of social care organisations in thee emerging work of Local Education and Training Boards (LETBs). This report is our opening offer to the Kent, Surrey,, Sussex LETB and is one of three prepared as a pilot project too demonstrate our offerr to LETBs. Skills for Care has a strategic role to ensure thatt the adult social care workforce w has the appropriately skilled people in the right places working to deliver high quality social care. c The Association of Directors of Adult Social Services Workforce Development Network considers, on behalf of ADASS, all issues whichh impinge on human resource and training issues including workforce analysis, management, development, competencies and qualifications and together wee have begun to scopee the levels of engagement the LETBs currently have with the adult social care sector; the three included in this pilot are: West Midlands, Yorkshire and Humber and Kent, Surrey and Sussex LETBs. The ADASS Workforce Developmentt Network and Skills for Care feel it is vital that social care organisations have an opportunity to engage effectively with LETBs alongside those from health and public health. It is imperative that LETB-thinking around workforce planning and a development is integrated, taking into account the whole workforce. This report is based on data from the National Minimum Data Set for Social S Care (NMDS-SC). Skills for Care is responsible for the NMDS-SC which is recognised as the leading source of robust workforce intelligence for social care. The ability to pull together NMDS-SC returns forr the adult social care sector s with the inclusion of data and information on health colleagues will support greater levels of integrated workforce planning.. This report will inform and support workforce planners and commissioners engaging in LETBs and the adult social care sector to develop one compelling workforcee offer. ADASS and Skills for Care welcome your comments and feedback on this report and we willl be working together with Health Education England to consider how we can take our o work forward in Sharon Allen CEO, Skills for Care Brian M Walsh Co-Chair ADASS Workforce Development Network 1

4 ADASS and Skills for Care have Department of Health (DH) approval to pilot greater integration and whole workforce planning in collaboration with three LETBs. Kent, Surrey & Sussex is one of the chosen pilot LETBs. The ambitions for the pilots have arisen as a result of examining the social care experience of collaboration with the LETBs. Skills for Care collated the national picture of LETB engagement with adult social care. This showed the need for a greater understanding of social care and the need to facilitate a common understanding of integrated workforce planning and development across health, public health and adult social care as well as embracing wider sector involvement such as housing and leisure services. One of the primary objectives for developing pilot sites is to establish the LETBs adult social care workforce intelligence needs. In establishing a clear offer of workforce data and analysis we will be able to support LETBs whole workforce planning. This adult social care sector workforce intelligence report has been developed for the purposes of identifying and providing information on the adult social care sector workforce within the Kent, Surrey & Sussex LETB geographical area. The social care sector is facing ever increasing demands on the quantity and quality of social care that is needed by people who use services and carers. The make up of the adult social care sector workforce continues to become more diverse as do the services delivered. A direct outcome of the Health and Social Care Act, in improving quality of care, tackling health inequalities in healthcare, promoting better integration of health and care services, ensuring choice and competition will only be provided with well trained and qualified staff in both health and social care services. The recent Kent, Surrey & Sussex stakeholder event (late 2012) recognised the need for greater integration of health a nd socia l care workforce planning particular ly in order to have an impact on t he delivery of services for people wit h dementia, to help ma nage the de mands on emergency a nd hospita l admissions and to support primary health care. We hope that in providing the LETB with work force intellig ence, data and analysis and in sh aring wider priorities for social care that we will support the region in developing a tra ined and skilled health and social care workforce delivering high quality services to people who need them. We look forward to continuing to work with you in order to deliver on our shared aims. Carl Biddle - Area Manager, London and the South East Carl.Biddle@skillsforcare.org.uk Mobile:

5 Table of contents 1. Introduction Where does the data come from? Key uses of NMDS-SC data in 2011/ Key background information for Kent, Surrey, Sussex Summary of overall key findings Issues for consideration Registered Nurses and Occupational Therapists key findings Social care establishments and organisations Turnover rates Vacancy rates Why do people leave their roles? Individual worker characteristics Age Gender Ethnicity Nationality Employment details Pay Qualifications Emerging population trends Direct payments recipients Workforce projections Population changes Council with social services responsibility (CSSR) level estimates Additional information Why you can trust the data in this report Direct payment recipients directly employing their own staff NMDS-SC online resources Dashboards Glossary of terms

6 1. Introduction This report provides an overview of adult social care services and the adult social care workforce in the Kent, Surrey, Sussex Local Education and Training Board (LETB) area. The information in the report is mostly derived from the National Minimum Data Set for Social Care (NMDS-SC). The report looks at the size and structure of this key sector in the Kent, Surrey, Sussex area, while also looking at key workforce issues such as retention and worker demographics. The report has been produced in co-production with ADASS and the Kent, Surrey, Sussex LETB. While giving an overview of the whole adult social care workforce the report does provide some focus on job roles that are more likely to operate across health and social care, namely registered nurses and occupational therapists. The report aims to raise awareness within LETBs of the size and structure of adult social care locally in addition to raising issues for discussion and future work. The NMDS-SC is the national system which Skills for Care, the sector skills council for adult social care in England, developed and manages. It is funded by the Department of Health. Skills for Care has been collecting data on the adult social care workforce via the NMDS-SC since late Where does the data come from? Individual social care employers and larger organisations upload information about their establishments and their employees. The information gathered is used at a national level to inform and influence policy within adult social care. At a local level the information is used to facilitate good workforce planning and commissioning. Skills for Care would not be able to report on this valuable information without the data provided by organisations and establishments who provide social care services. The data in this report is based on data held in the NMDS-SC as at October At this time, in England there are; 26,500 establishments registered on NMDS-SC 870,000 workers in these establishments 750,000 worker records in NMDS-SC A comprehensive breakdown of data from all the local authorities contained within this report is available on the NMDS-SC website, please follow this link Key uses of NMDS-SC data in 2011/12 include: Workforce planning at a local, regional and national level Estimating the size and structure of the adult social care workforce at local, regional and national level Forming the basis of forecasting models for the future size and structure of the adult social care workforce in England Providing robust data on the independent sector workforce Providing key benchmarked management information to individual care providing establishments Influencing and monitoring government policy 1.3. Key background information for Kent, Surrey, Sussex There are 6 local authorities in the Kent, Surrey, Sussex LETB (Kent, Surrey, East Sussex, West Sussex, Brighton and Hove, Kent and Medway). There are 1,900 records in the NMDS-SC of establishments which provide or organise adult social care in Kent, Surrey, Sussex. 4

7 There are almost 61,000 worker records in the NMDS-SC in Kent, Surrey, Sussex Summary of overall key findings There are estimated to be 144,000 adult social care jobs in the Kent, Surrey, Sussex LETB area. Workers who provide direct care make up around 110,000 of these jobs 128,000 people are working in the adult social care sector in Kent, Surrey, Sussex There are around 5,000 registered nurses working in adult social care in Kent, Surrey, Sussex There are causes for genuine concern with regard to the nursing workforce see section 1.6 Over 8 of jobs are in the independent sector (including those working for people who receive direct payments) Over a fifth (approximately 27,000 workers) of social care workers in Kent, Surrey, Sussex may retire in the next 10 years (21% aged over 55) There are nearly 11,700 direct payment recipients in Kent, Surrey, Sussex. The number of adult social care jobs is projected to grow by up to 82% by Issues for consideration Adult social care and health are moving towards a closer working relationship for this relationship to be effective, the workforce elements of the system also need to be increasingly integrated. This closer workforce integration needs to include understanding the required skillset but also it needs to include planning what type of workers and how many are and will be, required. It is envisaged that LETBs will play a key role in this concept of closer workforce integration, indeed one of the stated core functions of LETBs includes: work(ing) with local authorities and health and well-being boards in taking a joined-up approach across the local health, public health and social care workforce. Listed below are a series of issues that this report does not attempt to answer, but seeks to raise as areas of future discussion and collaborative work. Local authorities have overall responsibility for adult social care workforce planning and development in their geographic area. This responsibility extends across all sectors statutory, private and voluntary. However it should be recognised that they do not have control over all supply side levers particularly around the supply of registered nurses and occupational therapists. Discussions with LETB colleagues suggests that ideally all nursing and occupational therapy students that they fund would enter and remain in the health sector. NMDS-SC data shows just how many nurses are required within the Kent, Surrey, Sussex to work in adult social care (currently 5,000). It appears therefore that the LETB ambition (if realised) could have serious implications for social care employers particularly nursing home providers. The supply side lever that adult social care employers do have more control over is recruiting nurses from abroad and the data suggest that this is happening. However there are issues related with this route of filling posts. Issues include having a less stable workforce as migrant workers return to their country of origin or immigration rules change resulting in a lack of continuity for residents, and issues of language skills. Using Care Pathways as a methodology for facilitating better integrated workforce planning should highlight where areas of overlap between systems occur. Such work may well present 5

8 issues around new skill requirements in both sectors as well as new types of roles being required. Some further study on why and when nurses choose to move into adult social care would be beneficial to better understand this key element of the adult social care workforce. Given the issues above it seems that a close working relationship between Health Education England, LETBs, local authorities and Skills for Care would be of benefit to all involved Registered nurses and occupational therapists key findings Chart 1 below shows that there are around 5,000 registered nurses and 1,700 occupational therapists working in adult social care. In addition there are estimated to be around 100 allied health professionals. Chart 1. The estimated number of selected job roles in Kent, Surrey and Sussex Kent, Surrey, Sussex Occupational Therapists 1,700 Registered Nurses 5,000 Allied Health Professionals 100 While occupational therapists seem reasonably stable in terms of turnover and vacancy rates there appear to be potential issues with the registered nursing workforce in Kent, Surrey, Sussex. NMDS-SC data shows that almost half these nurses are due for retirement within the next 15 years (4 currently aged 50 or over) and that almost a third of them are from a non-european Economic Area (EEA) background. Add to that picture a turnover rate of around 1 in 5 nurses per annum and there seems to be grounds for concern and focussed recruitment and retention activity. It would appear nurses either move to adult social care later in their careers (there could be many reasons for this including more flexible working, less pressurised working, etc.) or they are recruited from abroad. This report has previously identified that of the two supply side levers of funding nursing courses and recruiting from abroad social care employers only have control over one of these. The current situation also leaves social care employers very exposed to changes in immigration rules for nurses and the skills shortage occupation list. Some discussions with adult social care employers on these issues would be beneficial. With regard to occupational therapists just 7% are from a non-eea background suggesting that recruitment from within England is less problematic. 6

9 2. Social care establishments and organisations Data from the Care Quality Commission (CQC) shows that overall in the Kent, Surrey, Sussex LETB area there are 3,559 registered services, of these, 2,123 (6) are care homes. In addition to these registered services there are a range of services not registered operating in areas such as day care and information, advice and guidance. Overall Skills for Care estimate there to be almost over 144,000 adult social care jobs being performed by around 128,000 people. In terms of where registered nurses work within adult social care there is a little surprise to find that 9 work within establishments offering an adult residential service (see chart 4). Chart 2. Sector of establishments (NMDS-SC) Other, 2% Voluntary or third sector, 24% Private sector, 6 Statutory local authority, 14% Chart 3. Main service of establishments (NMDS-SC) Healthcare Other, 1%, 4% Adult community care, 7% Adult domiciliary, 8% Adult Day, 18% Adult residential, 63% Chart 4. Main Service of registered nurses in Kent, Surrey, Sussex Adult residential, 9 Other, 1 Healthcare, 5% Adult domiciliary, 3% Adult community care, 1% Adult Day, 2.1. Turnover rates Turnover is one of the biggest costs to care organisations and a major influencing factor when it comes to the experience of service users. NMDS-SC data demonstrates that care workers in the Kent, Surrey, Sussex area have high turnover rates however registered nurses also experience high levels of turnover particularly in the independent (private) sector (see Chart 6). Occupational therapists have lower turnover rates in the statutory sector in general and while they appear to experience higher turnover in the independent sector, the numbers employed there are small. Chart 5. Turnover rates for selected job roles in England and Kent, Surrey, Sussex 3 25% 2 15% 1 5% 20.3% 21.5% All job roles 9.2% 10.2% Senior Management 12.9% 10.9% 11.4% % 9.2% Registered Manager England Social Worker Senior Care Worker Kent, Surrey, Sussex 27.4% 25.4% 13.8% 13.8% Care Worker Occupational Therapist 27.2% 27.6% Registered Nurse 11.6% 10.8% Allied Health Professional 7

10 Chart 6. Turnover rates by sector in Kent, Surrey, Sussex % 29.6% 18.8% Vacancy rates Social workers have the highest vacancy rates in Kent, Surrey, Sussex (5.5%), followed by care workers (3.7%) - see chart 7. For both these occupations, rates are a little below national averages % 14.9% 28.3% Care Worker Occupational Therapist Registered Nurse Statutory local authority Private sector Voluntary or third sector Chart 7. Vacancy by selected job role in England and Kent, Surrey, Sussex 18.6% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 3.8% 3.1% All job roles 2.6% 1.1% 1.5% 1.4% Senior Management Registered Manager % Social Worker 2.2% 2.2% Senior Care Worker 4.5% 4.6% 4.1% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% Care Worker Occupational Therapist Registered Nurse 3.6% * Allied Health Professional England Kent, Surrey, Sussex 2.3. Why do people leave their roles? NMDS-SC data shows that the top five reasons for leaving jobs include; personal reasons (14% in England and 15% in Kent, Surrey, Sussex), transferred to another employer (11% in England and 1 in Kent, Surrey, Sussex), resignation for other undisclosed reasons (8% in England and 7% in Kent, Surrey, Sussex), other (8% in England and 11% in Kent, Surrey, Sussex), and career development (7% in England and 8% in Kent, Surrey, Sussex). The majority (6 in England and 63% in Kent, Surrey, Sussex) of employers stated they did not know the destination of their leavers. However destinations given by employers include moving on to other roles in the independent adult care sector (11% in England and 12% in Kent, Surrey, Sussex), not to another job straightaway (6% in both Kent, Surrey, Sussex and 6% in England), the health sector (4% in England and 4% in Kent, Surrey, Sussex), other destinations (3% in Kent, Surrey, Sussex and 4% in England). The NMDS-SC collects this data at an aggregate level as such we cannot report on destinations by job role. 8

11 3. Individual worker characteristics This section contains information about workers in the Kent, Surrey, Sussex LETB area as at October 2012 and is derived from individual worker level data collected by the NMDS-SC. This information includes age, gender, nationality, job role and qualifications. Nationally, the NMDS-SC held information on almost 750,000 social care workers in the NMDS-SC and on 60,800 individual workers in the Kent, Surrey, Sussex area. The following section examines what the NMDS-SC is telling us about this vital part of the workforce and what issues those involved in workforce planning and commissioning in the sector should be aware of Age The average age of people working in adult social care in both England and the Kent, Surrey, Sussex area is 42 years old. Care workers have a slightly younger average age in both England and Kent, Surrey, Sussex (both 40 years old) while registered managers have an older average age in both England (48 years old) and Kent, Surrey, Sussex (47 years old). The chart below shows the age distribution of workers in England and the Kent, Surrey, Sussex area. The largest percentage of workers are aged (25%). In the Kent, Surrey, Sussex area, only 1 of workers are aged below 25 and 21% are over 55. Given a workforce of 128,000 in the Kent, Surrey, Sussex this could mean around 27,000 workers leaving the workforce over the next 10 years. Chart 10 shows that nurses have an age profile even more polarised towards older workers. For registered nurses working in adult social care, 43% are aged 50 or over the sector will potentially lose almost half its workforce to retirement within the next 10 to 15 years. Chart 8. Age distribution of workers in England and Kent, Surrey, Sussex % 2% 19% 19% 2 21% 26% 25% 24% 23% 9% 1 1% 1% 19 and Under 20 to to to to to 69 Over 70 England Kent, Surrey, Sussex Chart 9. Percentage age distribution of occupational therapists in in England and Kent, Surrey, Sussex 4 2 1% 19% 2 11% 23% 33% 26% 24% 26% 9% 7% 1% 19 and Under 20 to to to to to 69 Over 70 England Kent, Surrey, Sussex Chart 10. Percentage age distribution of registered nurses in England and Kent, Surrey, Sussex 4 2 1% 19% 2 7% 22% 26% 29% 28% 24% 9% 13% 1% 2% 19 and Under 20 to to to to to 69 Over 70 England Kent, Surrey, Sussex 9

12 3.2. Gender There is a much higher proportion of women in the social care workforce than men. The proportion of male to female workers is similar in both Kent, Surrey, Sussex and England where in both over four out of five workers are female (82% Kent, Surrey, Sussex and 83% in England). Gender distributions display some differences across job role groups in Kent, Surrey, Sussex (see chart 11). The proportion of women is highest in occupational therapists (89%), registered nurses (87%) and senior care workers (86%). Men are more widely represented working in management roles where 33% of senior managers are male. The general pattern of the whole workforce remains similar for occupational therapists, however allied health professionals are more likely to be men. Chart 11. Gender by selected job role in Kent, Surrey, Sussex % 89% 77% 87% 67% 83% 81% 86% 84% 18% 11% 23% All job Roles Occupational Allied Health Therapist Professional 13% Registered Nurse 3.3. Ethnicity Overall in the adult social care workforce three quarters of workers have a white ethnicity (73%). This figure drops to 45% when just considering registered nurses. Occupational therapists are far more likely to be from a white ethnic background (84%). 33% Senior Management Chart 12. Ethnicity of workers in Kent, Surrey, Sussex by main job role % 8% 15% 8% 2% 11% Male 18% 36% 3% 1 17% 19% Registered Manager 1 Female Social Worker 18% 14% 16% Senior Care Worker 6% 8% 5% 18% Care Worker 14% 17% % 84% 87% 87% 85% 74% 77% % 1 All job roles Occupational Therapist Allied Health Professional Registered Nurse Senior Management Registered Manager Social Worker Senior Care Worker Care Worker White BME Not known 10

13 3.4. Nationality Nationality of workers in the Kent, Surrey, Sussex is similar to that of the rest of England. Increasingly, a key measure is the number and percentage of workers that are of a non-eea nationality and therefore potentially working on a restricted basis or on a work permit. In England, 13% of workers are of a non-eea nationality, this falls slightly to 12% in the Kent, Surrey, Sussex area (see Chart 13). It is very interesting to note below the differences in nationalities of occupational therapists and registered nurses within Kent, Surrey, Sussex. Almost a third 1 of registered nurses are from outside the EEA suggesting that within adult social care the supply side is not meeting demand and that employers use a different supply side lever of recruiting from abroad to cope with this deficit. Further analysis of the nationalities of nurses working within adult social care in the Kent, Surrey, Sussex shows that Indian, Philippino and Zimbabwean are the most frequent stated nationalities (other than British). Chart 13. Nationality of social care workers in Kent, Surrey, Sussex % 5% 12% All Workers 94% 2% 4% Occupational Therapist 81% 8% 11% Allied Health Professional 61% 7% 32% Registered Nurse 95% 94% 2% 3% Senior Management 89% 2% 4% 4% 7% Registered Manager Social Worker Non-EEA EEA (non British) British 82% 81% 4% 5% 14% 14% Senior Care Worker Care Worker The table (Chart 14) below shows that in Kent, Surrey, Sussex, the percentage of non-british workers is on average 25%. The individual local authorities have a mixed picture where the percentage of British workers is between 62% and 87%. Chart 14. Table of Non- British Workers in Kent, Surrey, Sussex Council with Social Services Percentage of Non- Responsibilities British workers Kent, Surrey, Sussex 25% Surrey 38% West Sussex 25% Brighton & Hove 23% Kent 2 East Sussex 13% Medway 13% 1 Some additional analysis based on year of arrival in the UK would be useful here to ascertain how recent a phenomena this is. 11

14 Chart 15. Map of Non-British Workers in England Percentage of non-british Workers 4 and above 2 to 39.9% 1 to 19.9% to 9.9% 12

15 4. Employment details Chart 16 shows that about half of the social care workers in the NMDS-SC work full time (49% in England and 49% in the Kent, Surrey, Sussex area). However there are a significant number of part time staff (38% in England and 39% in Kent, Surrey, Sussex). Chart 17 below shows that 86% of the workforce recorded in the NMDS-SC are permanently employed, this figure is slightly higher in Kent, Surrey, Sussex (87%). The NMDS-SC shows that in both England and the Kent, Surrey, Sussex there are more employees who are from a bank or pool of staff (7% in both England and the Kent, Surrey, Sussex) than temporarily employed (4% in England and within Kent, Surrey, Sussex). Chart 16. Full Time or Part Time 4 49% 49% 38% 39% 2 12% 12% Full time Part time Neither of these England Kent, Surrey, Sussex Chart 17. Employment Status % 86% % 4% 7% 7% 2% 2% 1% 1% Permanent Temporary Bank or pool Agency Other England Kent, Surrey, Sussex 4.1. Pay NMDS-SC data shows that care workers and senior care workers in Kent, Surrey, Sussex are paid above England s median wages (see chart 18 and 19 below). For example, the Kent, Surrey, Sussex median hourly pay rate for care workers is 6.89 compared to the average in England of 6.70 per hour 2. Comparisons to the Living Wage are also of interest outside London, the Living Wage is 7.45 per hour, substantially higher than the median pay rate of care workers. Chart 18. Median hourly pay by main job role in England and Kent, Surrey, Sussex Senior Care Worker England Kent, Surrey, Sussex Minimum Wage 10,000 Care Worker 5,000 Chart 19. Median annual pay by main job role in England and Kent, Surrey, Sussex 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15, ,000 32,000 Senior Management 28,579 28,560 Registered Manager England 30,011 30,521 Social Worker Kent, Surrey, Sussex 26,151 24,456 22,644 23,502 Occupational Therapist Registered Nurse This pattern is consistent for higher paid jobs in the Kent, Surrey, Sussex including occupational therapists and nurses. Chart 19 shows that the median annual pay rate for a registered nurse working in adult social care is 24, National Minimum Wage the main rate for workers aged 21 and over, the rate, the rate for workers above school leaving age but under 18 and the apprentice rate, for apprentices under 19 or 19 or over and in the first year of their apprenticeship. 3 Chart 14 illustrates the National Minimum Wage for those age over 21 (as at October 2011) 13

16 4.2. Qualifications Within Kent, Surrey, Sussex, the NMDS-SC shows that 53% of the workforce in the NMDS-SC has a social care qualification. A fifth (2) of workers in this LETB are qualified to level 2 and 14% to level 3. In Kent, Surrey, Sussex almost half of the workforce (47%) do not hold any qualifications 4 (see chart 20). Chart 20. Highest qualifications achieved in England and Kent, Surrey, Sussex % 47% 2 1 1% 24% 2 13% 14% Entry or level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 or above England Kent, Surrey, Sussex 9% 13% 2% 9% 8% 2% Other relevant social care qualification(s) Any other qualification(s) No qualifications held There are 22% of workers who are working towards a qualification in Kent, Surrey, Sussex. The majority (6%) of these workers are aiming to achieve either a Level 2 qualification or a different social care qualification (5%). Chart 21. Highest qualification being worked towards in England and Kent, Surrey, Sussex % 6% 4% 4% 1% 2% Entry or level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 and above England Kent, Surrey, Sussex 7% 5% Other relevant social care qualification(s) 1% Any other qualification(s) 71% 78% No qualifications being worked towards 4 It is likely that non-social care qualifications are currently under reported in NMDS-SC. 14

17 5. Emerging population trends This section reports on Skills for Care s estimates of the numbers of social care workers that may be needed to meet the future social care needs of adults and older people in England. These projections include a number of hypothetical scenarios and are intended to contribute to policy development and planning. They should be interpreted as illustrative and as a basis for further work, rather than as Skills for Care s prescription for the future. As demographic trends indicate, people in the UK are living longer and their needs becoming more complex. This need reinforces the growing demands on social care services and the changing expectations of service users who require a workforce which is highly skilled and supported, and able to work in flexible ways Direct payments recipients The Health and Social Care Information Centre reported that there are 156,000 adults and older people in England in receipt of direct payments and 11,700 people in Kent, Surrey, Sussex. These direct payment recipients employ an estimated 16,500 people in the Kent, Surrey, Sussex. Expenditure by the government on direct payments for adults in England was 963 million in compared to 814 million in The chart below shows that since 2002, there has been a steady increase in the number of people choosing to organise their own care via the use of direct payments. Chart 22. Number of direct payment recipients in the Kent, Surrey, Sussex ,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Sep 02 Sep 03 Sep 04 Mar 05 Sep 05 Mar Brighton And Hove East Sussex Kent Medway Surrey West Sussex 5.2. Workforce projections Estimates of the demand for service increase in the future The State of the Adult Social Care Workforce Report includes projections of the future social care workforce, these projections include numbers of social care workers that may be needed to meet the future social care needs of adult and older people in England, to There are four models detailed in the report based on the different scenarios outlined below. The Base Case scenario The Base Case scenario assumes the same patterns of service which existed in continue at a constant rate while demand for services increases as anticipated. The number of jobs could rise by 65% to 2.8 million in 2025, and the number of people working in adult social care by 53% to 2.4 million. 5 (October 2012) 6 http// 15

18 Maximising Choice Under the Maximising Choice scenario, all who wish to have their publicly funded-social care provided in a highly personalised way in their own homes could do so. The number of jobs would nearly double to 3.1 million by 2025, and the number of people working in adult social care would rise to 2.6 million. Most jobs will be personal assistants. Contain and Community The Contain and Community scenario envisagess that most care and support would be provided by a largely unpaid workforce of family carers and community volunteers. The T paid workforce would focus on managing these resources and on front-line professionalised support at a whole family level. Paid jobs would increase by 37% to 2.3 million in 2025, and the number of people paid to work in adult social care by 26% to two million. Restricted Resources The Restricted Resourcess scenario assumes that future resources for adult social care will be very limited. Consequently, it envisages fewer butt more stringent assessments andd reviews, greater roles for community advice and guidance services and higher client-staff over two Chartt 23. Adult social care workforce jobs million, and the number of people working in adult social care projection in England by 14% to 1.8 ratios in publicly-funded residential care. The number of jobs would increase by 24% to just million. Chart 23 demonstrates that depending on the scenario, the number of jobs in adult social care is projected to grow by between 24% and 82% between 2010 and This means there could be between 2.1 million and 3.1 million jobs in England by For more detail please see The State of the Adult Social Care Workforce Report, Population changes Population estimates published by the Office of National Statistics for show that there are an estimated 41 million people aged 18 and over inn England. The population in Kent, Surrey, Sussex of those aged over 65 is projected to rise from 800,000 too 1.2 million an increase of 63%. Please see chart 24 below Chart 24. Population projections for Kent, Surrey and Sussex, (000 s) Total Population Aged 0 17 Totall Population Aged Total Population Aged Ski lls for Care 2010, uk/research/research_reports/state_of_the_adult_social_care_workforce_reports.aspx 16

19 for details of the population by age group in Kent, Surrey, Sussex. The population is projected to increase gradually from nearly 4.3 million until 2035 when it may reach over 5.1 million CSSR level estimates The number of jobs in the adult social care workforce in 2009 was estimated at 1.75 million and the number of people working in the sector at 1.6 million. There is an estimated 144,400 social care jobs in Kent, Chart 25. Estimated number of adult social care jobs by sector and Kent, Surrey, Sussex, 2010 Please note that NHS data is not available and therefore not included Surrey, Sussex, the largest number (102,900) are in the independent sector, 14,300 in local authorities and 27,200 are those employed by direct payment recipients. Brighton and Hove East Sussex Kent Medway Towns Surrey West Sussex - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 Local Authority Independent Direct payments recipients Total number of adult social care jobs by Kent, Surrey Sussex, 2010 Total 144,200 Brighton and Hove 8,000 Surrey 33,900 East Sussex 24,400 West Sussex 28,200 Kent 43,900 Medway Towns 5,800 17

20 6. Additional information 6.1. Why you can trust the data in this report Every effort is made to ensure that the data which makes up NMDS-SC information is reliable and fit for purpose. Data is checked and validated when it is entered into the NMDS-SC Any questionable data is filtered out All NMDS-SC information is less than 2 years old Data is suppressed or not shown where sample sizes are too small to be trusted NMDS-SC data quality is checked every month 6.2. Direct payment recipients directly employing their own staff There is currently very little information available about the percentage of direct payments recipients that directly employ their own staff (direct payments recipients have the option to use agency staff or purchase their own services rather than directly employing staff). For the purposes of this report, in absence of any better information, Skills for Care has continued to treat all direct payment recipients as employers. It is acknowledged that this is likely to result in some overestimation of the number of personal assistants in the workforce. Skills for Care plans to gather more information in time for next year s report in order to improve on these estimates NMDS-SC online resources To find out more about NMDS-SC, please follow the link at the end of this section. Skills for Care produces a number of reports for those who complete NMDS-SC. These include national, regional and local authority area reports which are specific to individual organisations. These reports have recently been updated to improve the quality of data and ensure they are as user friendly as possible. To have a look at the reports, please follow this link: Dashboards Skills for Care has enhanced the NMDS-SC reporting offer, making the information derived from the NMDS-SC more accessible to all users. Our aim is to overhaul and modernise the NMDS-SC reporting module in order to create reports and analysis that engage and encourage use of NMDS-SC across the sector for workforce and business planning. For more information please follow this link: 18

21 7. Glossary of terms For the purposes of this report, the following glossary provides a definition of terms used. Care-providing location/ Establishment - An establishment is defined as a single location or workplace at which care is provided or from which it is organised. For local authorities an establishment can be a team or department. Employees - Employees are all permanent and temporary staff at the establishment Jobs - the number of jobs in adult social care. This figure will generally be higher than the number of workers, as a single worker may hold more than one social care job. Workers - Workers are a sum of all staff at the establishment (permanent, temporary, pool, agency, student, volunteers and other staff). The worker total is taken from the number of workers recorded at the establishment. Worker records - A worker record is collected about each individual worker, this includes information about demographics, pay, qualifications and other topics. The number of worker records may be lower than the total number of workers at an establishment if a worker record has not been provided for all staff. Direct Payment recipients - The direct payments scheme is a UK Government 8 initiative which the gives recipients money directly, to pay for their own care. Direct payments can be used to purchase any service or services that meet the person's assessed needs and enable independence within their own home and community. For example, the payment can be used to directly employ personal assistants (the direct payments recipient may legally be classed as an employer) or care workers. Skills for Care acknowledge that there is currently very little information available about the percentage of direct payments recipients that directly employ their own staff (see 6.2 for further details). European Economic Area (EEA) 9 Workers from this area (and members of their families) can currently come to, live in and work in the UK. Vacancy rates- this is calculated as the number of vacant positions on the day NMDS-SC is completed as a percentage of all posts i.e. vacancy rates divided by employees + vacancies Turnover rate- this is the number of leavers in the 12 months prior to date of completion as a percentage of the total staff employed on the completion date i.e. number of leavers divided by the number of staff 8 viewed August 2012) 9 viewed August 2012) 19

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24 Skills for Care West Gate 6 Grace Street Leeds LS1 2RP telephone fax info@skillsforcare.org.uk web Skills for Care 2012