US Lodging Industry Overview. Jan D. Freitag Senior Vice President

Transcription

1 US Lodging Industry Overview Jan D. Freitag Senior Vice President 1

2 Click on Hotel Data Presentations 2

3 Agenda Total US Review Chain Scale Review Segmentation Review Group & Transient 2012 / 2013 Forecast Channel Study Highlights 3

4 Total US Review 4

5 Supply / Demand Imbalance Drove Last 12 Months % Change Room Supply* 1.8 bn 0.4% Room Demand* 1.06 bn 4.4% Occupancy 60.5% 4.0% A.D.R. $ % RevPAR $62 8.0% Room Revenue* $109 bn 8.4% 12 Months Ending March 2012, Total US Results * All Time High 5

6 Q1 2012: Highest Demand - EVER (245 Million Rooms Sold) 6

7 Demand Growth Expected To Revert To Mean. Supply Not An Issue 8 8.0% 4 4.4% 0-0.9% -4 Supply Demand - 4.7% % *Total US, Supply & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/90 3/12 7

8 ADR Rebound Trajectory Bodes Well for % 0-0.2% -0.9% -5 Demand ADR -4.7% -4.6% % -8.7% *Total US, ADR & Demand % Change, 12 MMA 1/90 3/12 8

9 ADR Discounting at Twice The Speed of ADR Increases 110 Sept 08 $ % Dec 11 $ % Months Apr 10 $ Months *Total US, ADR $, 12 MMA

10 ADRs Are Growing (But Comps Get More Difficult) Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 * Total US, ADR $ % Change, by Month, 1/11 3/12 10

11 Do You Really Know Your Competitors? National Nameback %:??% * % of hotels that use hotels in their compset which have named them Source: STR Analytics 11

12 Do You Really Know Your Competitors? National Nameback %: 45% * % of hotels that use hotels in their compset which have named them Source: STR Analytics 12

13 Chain Scale Review 13

14 Q1: Strong Demand Growth, Supply Not An Issue Supply Demand Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale *Supply / Demand % Change, by Scale, Q

15 Q1: Strong Beginning to Occupancy ADR Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale *OCC / ADR % Change, by Scale, Q

16 Upper End Sells 7 out of 10 Rooms Every Night Months end 3/ Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale *Absolute OCC %, by Scale, 2007 & 12 Months ending 3/12 16

17 ADR Growth Is Strong But Not Strong Enough (...yet) $293 $ Months end 3/12 $159 $149 $121 $113 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale *Absolute ADR $, by Scale, 2007 & 12 Months ending 3/12 17

18 Segmentation Review 18

19 Transient Demand Breaks Records, But Millions Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec *Transient Demand in Millions of Rooms; 2007, 2011, 2012 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents) 19

20 Transient ADR Still Lags 2007 Results $ $180 $170 $160 $150 $140 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec *Transient ADR $, 2007, 2011, 2012 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents) 20

21 We Expect Transient ADR Growth To Continue Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 *Transient ADR % by Month, 1/11 3/12 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents) 21

22 12 Group Demand Has Not Changed Over Time, But Millions Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec *Group Demand in Millions of Rooms, 2007, 2011, 2012 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents) 22

23 Group ADRs Still Depressed (& Could Dampen Future Absolute ADRs) $ $160 $150 $140 $130 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec *Group ADR $, 2008, 2011, 2012 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents) 23

24 Group ADR Expectation Still Depressed Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 *Group ADR % by Month, 1/11 3/12 Data is for upper tier hotels only (LUX & UU chains, & Upper Tier independents) 24

25 2012 / 2013 Forecast 25

26 Rooms Pipeline Still Not An Issue in 2012 Phase March 2012 March 2011 Dec 2007 In Construction Planned Pipeline Active Pipeline *Total US Pipeline, in 000s of rooms, by Phase by Year Planned Pipeline includes projects in Final Planning and Planning phases Source: STR / McGraw-Hill Construction Dodge 26

27 U/C Pipeline By Selected Markets Market Projects Rooms Chicago 6 1,300 Miami 9 1,200 Nashville 4 1,400 NYC 50 7,600 Orlando 15 3,700 Washington, DC 12 2,700 27

28 Total United States Forecast 2012 / 2013 Key Performance Indicator % Change 2012 Forecast 2013 Forecast Supply 0.5% 1.1% Demand 2.0% 1.8% Occupancy 1.5% 0.7% ADR 4.0% 4.6% RevPAR 5.5% 5.4% 28

29 Total United States Chain Scale Key Performance Indicator Outlook 2012F by Chain Scale Chain Scale Occupancy (% chg) ADR (% chg) RevPAR (%chg) Luxury +2.6% +5.1% +7.9% Upper Upscale +1.5% +4.2% +5.7% Upscale +2.3% +4.6% +7.1% Total United States 1.5% 4.0% 5.5% 29

30 Channel Study Highlights 30

31 OTA Revenue: 8% Of Revenue, 88% Of Our Conversation OTA Brand.com CRS/Voice GDS Prop Direct/Other Total US *Total rooms revenue in billions $, by channel, June YTD

32 Wide ADR Variance Between OTA and GDS Channel OTA Brand.com CRS/Voice GDS Prop Direct/Other Total US *ADR $, by channel, June YTD

33 Wide ADR Variance By OTA Business Model Retail Merchant Opaque *ADR $, by OTA channel, June YTD

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