29 June 2018 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS. Non-mining states drive engineering activity in Q1 2018

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1 29 June 2018 AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS The ABS latest estimates of engineering construction activity for the March quarter (Q1) of 2018, indicate there was more engineering construction work done in the non-mining states than the mining states for the first time since This is largely because of rising infrastructure spending in New South Wales and Victoria and the end of the mining investment boom in the mining states. Significant volumes of public infrastructure work continue to be contracted out to the private sector, with the private sector accounting for 71% of all engineering work being done for the public sector in Q Work in the pipeline for transport infrastructure (roads, highways, bridges and rail) continues to rise, reflecting recent announcements by State Governments. Job vacancy data released this week by the ABS suggest the unemployment rate may fall below 5.5% in the coming months. On an annual basis, job vacancies rose at its fastest rate since early 2011 (+21.4% p.a.) to a record high of 234,200 vacancies in May 2018 (trend). However, the change in vacancies reported by the ABS are significantly higher than other measures of vacancies, which suggest much slower, albeit still positive, employment growth. Last week, the ABS estimated that 51,992 Australian businesses were involved in exporting goods in , an increase of 700 businesses or 1.4% from the previous year. This represents just 2.3% of all active businesses in Australia (2.2 million in June 2017) or 6.0% of all active businesses with employees (868,000 in June 2017). To find out more please read our Who are Australia s exporters? factsheet here. Also, please click here for Ai Group s analysis of the New South Wales State Economy and State Budget for Non-mining states drive engineering activity in Q The ABS estimates that the real value of engineering construction work done in Q1 of 2017 increased 2.8% q/q to $23.6 billion (seasonally adjusted, inflation adjusted). The cyclical decline in engineering construction after the mining investment boom, which was acting as a major drag on growth, appears to be over. The drivers of engineering construction activity over the past decade have changed dramatically. For the first time since 2005, the real value of engineering construction was greater in the non-mining states than the mining states, largely because of rising infrastructure spending in New South Wales and Victoria and the end of the mining investment boom in the mining states (Queensland, Western Australia and Northern Territory). 1

2 Engineering construction in the mining states bottomed out at $11.0bn in the December quarter of 2016 and has risen slightly to $11.1bn in the March quarter of 2018 (there was a one-off spike in the September quarter of 2017 because of the timing of an LNG platform installation in Western Australia). This is less than half the record level reached in September 2013 of $25.6bn. Many mining projects have since completed the construction phase and have shifted to the production and export phase. Chart 1: Real value of engineering construction, mining and non-mining states, seasonally adjusted Source: ABS, Engineering Construction Activity, Mar 2018 The majority of engineering construction work done in Q was for the private sector, which increased by 0.6% q/q to $14.2bn (+10.4% p.a.). Work done for the public sector also added to growth in the March quarter, with an increase of 6.3% q/q to $9.5bn (+19.2% p.a.). Significant volumes of public infrastructure work are being contracted out to the private sector; engineering work done by the private sector for the public sector rose by 27.6% p.a. to $6.7bn in Q1 of 2018 (real inflation-adjusted volumes, seasonally adjusted) and accounted for 71% of all engineering work being done for the public sector (Chart 2). This is particularly evident in Victoria and New South Wales where work done by the private sector for the public sector accounted for 89% and 74% of all engineering work being done for the public sector, respectively (nominal, unadjusted data). Reflecting work starting on significant road and rail projects, the nominal value of public-sector infrastructure work on roads, bridges and rail has been rising steadily for the last two years (see Chart 3). Telecommunications (which includes the work done for the roll-out of the NBN) has also seen a sizeable increase in engineering work for the public sector. As a percentage of GDP, 2

3 engineering work for the public sector on roads and rail is nearing the levels seen during the GFC, where government stimulus significantly increased the amount of infrastructure spending as a proportion of GDP. Chart 2: Engineering work done for the public sector, seasonally adjusted Source: ABS, Engineering Construction Activity, Mar 2018 Chart 3: Engineering construction work done for the public sector, selected activities, (original, 4-quarter moving average) Source: ABS, Engineering Construction Activity, Mar

4 Looking ahead, the pipeline of future work grew in Q1, with the value of work yet to be commenced in the March quarter rising 20.0% q/q to $59.2 billion (nominal, unadjusted data). The private sector is expected to conduct $54.8bn of this engineering construction, with $24.2bn being done for the public sector. There is a declining pipeline of work for the private sector in mining related projects (including LNG projects), but also less port infrastructure investment. In contrast, future work for transport infrastructure (roads, highways and bridges), railways and utilities is increasing, reflecting significant transport investment announcements by State Governments (Chart 4). Chart 4: Work yet to be done by the private sector (original, 4-quarter moving average) Note: The scale on the left axis is ten times the scale on the right axis. Other includes pipelines, recreation, telecommunications, other heavy industry and other. Source: ABS, Engineering Construction Activity, Mar 2018 Consistent with the changing geographic destination of engineering construction activity, construction employment has risen particularly rapidly in NSW and Victoria over the past year (Chart 5). Construction is estimated to be around its highest share of employment in a century and now employs 1.2 million people or 9.4% of the workforce. 4

5 Chart 5: Construction employment by state, to May 2018, trend Note: Data is unadjusted. Right hand axis is a different scale to left hand axis. Source: ABS Labour force Australia, detailed quarterly, May 2018 ABS Job Vacancies suggest unemployment may fall below 5.5% Job vacancy data released by the ABS this week indicate job vacancies rose 4.6% q/q to a record high of 234,200 in May 2018 (trend). This comprised of 214,000 private sector vacancies, which have increased by 23.0% p.a., and 20,100 public sector vacancies, which have grown by 6.7% p.a. Total job vacancies grew at the fastest pace since early 2011 at 21.4% p.a. Victoria accounted for around half of the increase in job vacancies over the past year (unadjusted data). It appears labour market conditions are improving in the mining states where job vacancies are up 20.1% p.a. in Queensland, 26.3% p.a. in Western Australia and 24.6% p.a. in the Northern Territory. ABS job vacancies as a proportion of the total labour force are now at their highest level on record at 1.8%, indicating that there are more job vacancies as a proportion of people who are working or looking for work. This measure tends to lead movements in the unemployment rate by 3-9 months and suggests the unemployment rate may fall below 5.5% in the coming months (see chart 6). 5

6 Chart 6: ABS Job Vacancies as proportion of labour force and unemployment rate (trend) Note: The survey was suspended between May 2008 and November 2009 Source: ABS Job Vacancies, May 2018; ABS Labour Force, May 2018 However, other leading indicators of employment growth suggest slower employment growth in coming months. Last week, the Department of Jobs and Small Business Internet Vacancy Index (IVI) fell for the third month in a row, with online job vacancies falling by 0.9% m/m to 180,700 in May (trend). The change in vacancies reported by the ABS - both over the quarter and past year - are significantly higher than other measures of vacancies such as the Department of Jobs and Small Business IVI, ANZ job ads and Seek job ads (see Table 1). Table 1: Job vacancy data for May 2018 (trend) May s (trend) % change p.a. (trend) ANZ job ads % Internet vacancy index % ABS job vacancies % Seek job ads N/A 13.0% Source: ANZ Job Ads, May 2018; Department of Jobs and Small Business Vacancy Report, May 2018; ABS Job Vacancies, May 2018; SEEK Employment data report, May

7 This week s data and events, 25 Jun 29 Jun 2018 Day Date Data/event Data period Previous release Tue 26 Jun ABS Land Management and Farming in Australia (A) 88,073 agricultural businesses, +2.8% p.a. Wed 27 Jun ABS Engineering Construction Activity Mar (Q) +2.8% q/q, +13.7% p.a. Thu 28 Jun ABS National Accounts: Finance and Wealth Mar (Q) Total national capital formation $100.2bn ABS Job Vacancies May (Q) +4.6% q/q, +21.4% p.a. Fri 29 Jun RBA Financial Aggregates May (M) Total credit +0.2% m/m, +4.8% p.a. RBA International Reserves & Foreign Currency Liquidity May (M) Official reserve assets $82.5bn M = monthly. Q = quarterly. H = half-yearly. A = annual. All data are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise noted. Next week s data and events, 2 Jul 6 Jul 2018 Day Date Data/event Data period due for release Previous release Mon 2 Jul Australian PMI Jun (M) May (M): 57.5 points ANZ Job Ads Jun (M) +1.5% m/m, +11.5% p.a. Tue 3 Jul RBA Board Meeting Jul (M) Jun (M): Cash rate 1.50% ABS Building Approvals May (M) Apr (M): -0.3 m/m +13.3% p.a. Wed 4 Jul Australian PSI Jun (M) May (M): 59.0 points ABS Retail Trade May (M) Apr (M): Nominal sales +0.4% m/m ABS International Trade in Goods and Services May (M) Apr (M): Imports $33.2bn, exports $34.2bn RBA Chart Pack Jul (M) June (M): - Fri 6 Jul Australian PCI Jun (M) May (M): 54.0 points M = monthly. Q = quarterly. H = half-yearly. A = annual. B= Biennial. All data are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise noted. 7

8 Australian economy: latest full-year growth rates and government forecasts RBA SoMP (May 2018) actual f f f GDP, % change p.a., year end Unemployment rate, %, year end Inflation (CPI), % change p.a., year end Treasury Budget (May 2018) p GDP, % change p.a., year average Household consumption, % p.a., year average Dwelling investment, % p.a., year average Business investment, % p.a., year average p Employment growth, % p.a., year end Unemployment rate, %, year end Terms of trade, % change p.a., year end Inflation (CPI), % change p.a., year end Wages (WPI), % change p.a., year end f = forecast. p = projection. Sources: ABS various data; RBA Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP), latest quarter; Australian Treasury, Budget (May 2018). Australian economy: latest indicators Economy FX and commodity prices (Friday morning) RBA official cash rate, % Jun (M) 1.50 AUD/USD exchange rate US$ Real GDP, % change p.a. Mar (Q) 3.1% Oil price (WTI light crude, USD/BBL) US$73.17 Headline CPI, % change p.a. Mar (Q) 1.9% - Gold price (USD/OZ) US$1, Unemployment rate, % trend May (M) 5.5% - Copper price (USD/tonne, LME spot) US$ Australian Industry Group monthly performance of industry indexes Australian PMI May (M) 57.5 Australian PSI May (M) 59.0 Australian PCI May (M) 54.0 M = monthly. Q = quarterly. All data are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise noted. Arrows represent direction of movement relative to last week for prices, and last observation for growth rates and indexes. Sources: ABS various data; Ai Group; Australian Financial Review market prices (as of Thu); London Metals Exchange market prices (as of Fri). Ai Group Economics and Research Team Julie Toth Chief Economist (03) David Richardson Senior Economist (02) Colleen Dowling Senior Research Analyst (03) Andrew Bridger Economist (03) Molly Knox Research Assistant (03) economics@aigroup.com.au 8