IrishJobs.ie Jobs Report Q2, 2016

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Josephine Greer
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1 Headlines Job vacancies up 7% year-on-year Job vacancies up 4% quarter-on-quarter Strong increase annually in Environmental, Health, and Safety; Engineering and Utilities; Construction, Architecture, and Property; Production, Manufacturing, and Materials; and Secretarial and Administration Quarterly increases in job vacancies in two thirds of all sectors analysed Most substantial vacancy gains in Donegal and Offaly Highest vacancy-to-employment rates recorded in Limerick and Dublin Greatest percentage increases in vacancy-to-employment rates recorded in Leitrim and Waterford Job Advertisements up 7% Year on Year The latest ESRI Quarterly Economic Commentary forecasts that the Irish economy will continue to grow robustly by 4.6% in The outlook is marginally reduced compared to the previous Commentary, mainly due to a slowdown in international trade and uncertainties related to the Brexit fall-out. The contribution of net trade to economic growth is weakening which means that growth is almost entirely a function of domestic sources. Employment continues to grow on a modest basis - 0.8% in Q and 2.4% year-on-year. Nearly all sectors experienced rising employment on an annual basis with the administrative and support services activities and the construction sector performing particularly well. The unemployment rate fell from 9 to 8.3% in Q1 and is expected to fall to 7.6% by the end of the year. Due to the tightening labour market, wages are expected to increase by 2.3% in Spatially, the recovery is meeting most of the Irish regions. In Q1 all regions, except the West (the region centred on Galway) and the Mid-East (the commuting belt of Dublin), experienced a growth in employment year-on year. The highest year-on-year increase (4.6%) was recorded in Dublin. Unemployment fell in all regions, notably in Dublin, the Border and the Mid-West region. Irishjobs.ie data from 2016: Q2 reveals that job advertisements have increased by 7% year-on-year, with quarterly job advertisements up 4%. Figure 1 (below) illustrates the strong upward trajectory of total job vacancies throughout 2015 and into the first two quarters of 2016, with the index value increasing by 15 points from 2015:Q2.

2 2009:Q2 2009:Q4 2010:Q1 2010:Q2 2010:Q3 2010:Q4 2011:Q1 2011:Q2 2011:Q3 2011:Q4 2012:Q1 2012:Q2 2012:Q3 2012:Q4 2013:Q1 2013:Q2 2013:Q3 2013:Q4 2014:Q1 2014:Q2 2014:Q3 2014:Q4 2015:Q1 2015: Q2 2015:Q3 2015:Q4 2016:Q1 2016:Q2 Index Value (2009=100) % Change IrishJobs.ie Jobs Report Q2, 2016 Figure 1: Total Jobs (2009:Q2=100) QoQ Change, % YoY Change, % Total Jobs by industry, 2009:Q2=

3 Sectors The strong recovery in manufacturing continues to be the key driver of the growth in Irish job vacancies (Figure 2). The year-on-year growth in manufacturing job vacancies of 30% has outpaced that of Hotel and Catering over the last 12 months, (19% year-on-year growth, as it recovers from a dip in late 2014) and Sales (a year-on-year decrease of 4%). IT, however, has experienced a fall of 7% in terms of the yearon-year growth of vacancies in this sector. This fall can be seen to be consistent with the level of fluctuation in IT vacancies since 2014:Q Sales Manufacturing 500 Hotel/Catering IT 400 Figure 2: Sectoral Growth (2009:Q2=100)

4 The sectoral trends illustrated in Figure 2 are explored further in Table 1. A Number of distinct trends can be gleaned from Table 1. Comparing the level of the sectoral indices in 2016:Q2 to the benchmark index quarter (2009: Q2 =100) gives an indication of the breadth of the recovery. The strongest vacancy index changes can be seen in Production, Manufacturing, and Materials (+453%); HR and Recruitment (+421%); Construction, Architecture, and Property (+367%); Transport, Warehousing and Motors (+332%); and Banking, Financial Services and Insurance (+252%). Notable vacancy index declines since 2009:Q2 are evident in Telecoms (-36%); Publishing, Media, and Creative Arts (-33%); and Education, Childcare, and Training (- 30%). The largest annual increases have been experienced in Environmental, Health, and Safety (+47%); Engineering and Utilities (+38%); Construction, Architecture, and Property (+37%), Production, Manufacturing, and Materials (+30%); and Secretarial and Administration (+30%). The largest annual declines in the index can be seen in Telecoms (-35%) and Accountancy and Finance (-10%). Quarterly changes, of course, include greater fluctuation. Notable positive movements from 2016:Q1 to 2016:Q2 include Beauty, Haircare, Leisure, and Sport (+24%), General Management (+23%), and Legal (+22%) while the largest negative movers were Telecoms (-12%); and Security, Trades, and General Services (-12%).

5 Table 1: Changes (%) in sectoral job advertisements (2009:Q2 = 100) Sector Index Points Annual % Quarterly % Accountancy & Finance Banking, Financial services & Insurance Beauty,Hair Care, Leisure & Sport Construction, Architecture & Property Customer Service, Call Centres & Languages Education, Childcare & Training Engineering & Utilities Environmental, Health & Safety General Management Hotel & Catering HR / Recruitment IT Legal Marketing Medical Professionals & Healthcare Production, Manufacturing & Materials Public Sector Publishing, Media & Creative Arts Retailing, Wholesaling & Purchasing Sales Science, Pharmaceutical & Food Secretarial & Admin Security, Trades & General Services Social & Not for Profit Telecoms Tourism, Travel & Airlines Transport, Warehousing & Motor

6 2009:Q2 2009:Q4 2010:Q1 2010:Q2 2010:Q3 2010:Q4 2011:Q1 2011:Q2 2011:Q3 2011:Q4 2012:Q1 2012:Q2 2012:Q3 2012:Q4 2013:Q1 2013:Q2 2013:Q3 2013:Q4 2014:Q1 2014:Q2 2014:Q3 2014:Q4 2015:Q1 2015: Q2 2015:Q3 2015:Q4 2016:Q1 2016:Q2 IrishJobs.ie Jobs Report Q2, 2016 Figure 3: Changes in High Value Added Sectors Medical Professionals & Healthcare Science, Pharmaceutical & Food In keeping with our previous reports, we take the vacancy rates of two high-skill, high value added sectors (Medical Professionals and Healthcare; Science, Pharmaceutical and Food) as useful barometers of the Irish employment outlook. Taken over a 12 month time span, both sectors have experienced strong growth in vacancy rates. Job advertisements have increased in Medical Professionals and Healthcare throughout 2015 and into 2016 (18% year-on-year growth) but have fallen by -7% quarter-on quarter. Science, Pharmaceutical and Food job advertisements also experienced strong growth in the first three of quarters of 2015, reached a plateau in 2015: Q4 and 2016:Q1, but have picked up in 2016:Q2 (25% year-on-year growth; 5% quarter-on quarter growth).

7 Figure 4: Job availability as % of total jobs in Q Hotel & Catering Banking, Financial services & Insurance Sales IT Production, Manufacturing & Materials Accountancy & Finance Customer Service, Call Centres & Languages Public Sector Science, Pharmaceutical & Food Engineering & Utilities Retailing, Wholesaling & Purchasing Medical Professionals & Healthcare General Management Transport, Warehousing & Motor Secretarial & Admin Construction, Architecture & Property Marketing HR / Recruitment Beauty,Hair Care,Leisure & Sport Tourism, Travel & Airlines Education, Childcare & Training Social & Not for Profit Telecoms Publishing, Media & Creative Arts Legal Security, Trades & General Services Environmental, Health & Safety Across the economy as whole, it can be seen from Figure 4 that the largest proportions of 2016Q:2 job vacancies reside in Hotels and Catering (12%); Banking, Financial Services, and Insurances (10%); Sales (10%), and IT (9%).

8 Location Table 2: Percentage changes in job vacancies by location YoY % Quarterly change% Carlow 25-3 Cavan Clare Cork 6 10 Donegal 6 38 Dublin 11 6 Galway 7 12 Kerry Kildare 14 5 Kilkenny 53 8 Laois Leitrim Limerick 8 11 Longford Louth Mayo Meath Monaghan 3 17 Offaly Roscommon Sligo 10 6 Tipperary Waterford Westmeath 5 5 Wexford 48 3 Wicklow 22 8 As regards job vacancy gains by location, the national quarter-on-quarter growth level is well distributed across the counties, with only County Carlow experiencing a modest fall (-3%). Highest quarter-onquarter increases are evident in Donegal (+38%), Offaly (+37%), Louth (+28%), and Waterford (+ 25%). More modest percentage increases are experienced in Kildare (+5%), Dublin (+6%) and Sligo (+6%). The strong quarterly performance translates in positive year-on-year figures for nearly all counties. Highest

9 year-on-year increases are evident in Leitrim (+67%), Waterford (+59%), Longford (56%), Kilkenny (+53%), and Offaly (51%). More modest year-on-year increases are experienced in Monaghan (+3%) and Westmeath (+5%) with Mayo country experiencing a slight (-2%) year-on-year fall. There is no clear pattern in this regional spread with the group of traditionally lagging counties including the lowest and highest annual growth rates. This IrishJobs.ie Job Index Report also provides an insight into the relative importance of the number of vacancies for locations. The indicator used the vacancy rate is calculated as the number of vacancies in a location divided by employment in that location (for details see methodological note). The results for Q are mapped in Figure 5. The highest vacancy rates are recorded in Dublin (4.7) and Limerick (4.2). This compares to substantially lower rates in Cavan (1.4) and Monaghan (1.4). We find very low rates in some of the traditionally economically lagging counties the border counties of Monaghan, Cavan and Donegal; the western peripheral counties Mayo and Kerry; and the Midlands counties Offaly and Laois. At the same time, some traditionally lagging counties, such as Leitrim, Sligo and Roscommon are performing relatively well. Figure 6 presents the year-on-year changes in the vacancy rates. Encouragingly, all counties experienced an improvement in their vacancy rate with the greatest percentage increases recorded in Leitrim (+64%) and Waterford (61%). More modest vacancy rate increases are recorded in Monaghan, Mayo, Westmeath, Cork, Donegal, Dublin and Limerick. Where the modest rate increases in Dublin and Limerick are related to a high base rate, some of the traditionally lagging counties clearly continue to have difficulty in converging to national average levels.

10 Figure 5: Vacancies per 000 in employment

11 Figure 5: Vacancies per 000 in employment Figure 6: Vacancy Rate by County Carlow Cavan Clare Cork Donegal Dublin Galway Kerry Kildare Kilkenny Laois Leitrim Limerick Longford Louth Mayo Meath Monaghan Offaly Roscommon Sligo Tipperary Waterford Westmeath Wexford Wicklow Q2_2016 Q2_ Conclusion The rate of job vacancies being created in the Irish economy in 2016: Q2 shows a continuation of the robust performance seen throughout 2015 and into the first quarter of What is more, this growth in the rate of job vacancies extends across both sectors and regions. Recent job vacancies span a wide

12 range of sectors, including: Environmental, Health, and Safety; Engineering and Utilities; Construction, Architecture, and Property; Production, Manufacturing, and Materials; and Secretarial and Administration. As regards job vacancy gains by location, the national quarter-on-quarter growth level is well distributed across the counties. Highest quarter-on-quarter increases are evident in Donegal, Offaly, Louth, and Waterford. The strong quarterly performance translates in positive year-on-year figures for nearly all counties, with highest year-on-year increases evident in Leitrim, Waterford, Longford, Kilkenny, and Offaly.. The highest vacancy-to-employment rates were recorded in Dublin and Limerick. All counties experienced an improvement in their vacancy rate, with the greatest percentage increases recorded in Leitrim and Waterford.

13 A Note on the data The report looks at all corporate jobs advertised on IrishJobs.ie and Jobs.ie from 01/04/16 to 30/06/15 Methodology: Vacancy Rate by Location To obtain an insight into the relative importance of the number of vacancies in specific locations we developed a new indicator the vacancy rate. The indicator is calculated as the number of vacancies in a location divided by thousands in employment in that location. The numbers employed are obtained from the Quarterly National Household Survey. The QNHS provides employment figures at the level of the eight spatial planning regions in Ireland. The numbers employed per county are estimated by applying the proportional distribution of employment across the counties in a planning region as reported in the latest CSO population census (2011) Report Authors The IrishJobs.ie Job Index data is prepared and analysed by Dr. Declan Curran, economist, and Dr. Chris Van Egeraat, economic geographer, DCU. -ends-

IrishJobs.ie Jobs Report Q1, 2016

IrishJobs.ie Jobs Report Q1, 2016 Headlines Job vacancies up 14% year-on-year Job vacancies up 1% quarter-on-quarter Strong increase annually in Medical Professionals and Healthcare; HR and Recruitment;