Higher Higher in the Tree

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1 Higher Higher in the Tree Stronger Economies Together Regional Economies 101 January 12, 2012 The Dalles, OR Bruce Sorte, Eastern Oregon Community Economist OSU Extension Service/Rural Studies Program Hermiston Agricultural Research & Extension Center Phone: (Campus Winter 2012)

2 You are doing well already. MCEDD s effectiveness Gorge bridging the urban/rural divide Ideologies, economic restructuring, and mostly globalization of consumption patterns and production

3 Today Background Your Questions for Today Describing Economic Development Global Economy Regional Economy Rungs of the Ladder More Questions

4 Background - Sorte Banking, federal/state educational research project, retail, manufacturing, OSU, elected office Cover from the top of the Cascades to the eastern border of Oregon. Impact analysis, teaching, presentations, newspaper columns, blogs and workshops You folks contribute to my work by providing me some travel funds through Extension s Wasco County budget thank you.

5 Questions that you want answered today?

6 Economic Development Community Work Resilience

7 Community Caring Sharing Representing

8 Work Three Purposes of Work: First, to provide necessary and useful goods and services. Second, to enable every one to use and thereby perfect our gifts like good stewards. Third, to do so in service to, and in cooperation with others, so as to liberate ourselves from our inborn egocentricity, E.F. Schumacher

9 Resilience An economically resilient community is one that can be economically shocked, quickly begin a rebound, and reach an equilibrium that although different than the pre-shock equilibrium, preserves the community social capital, jobs and population.

10 Global Trends Real wages converge until 2050 (Hans Rosling+Asia Rising) Technology that connects us with significant benefits also replaces workers especially semiskilled workers Standard of living Energy Water Baby boomers Terrorism and fear Migration to then from rural places

11 Example Since 1969, real average earnings have grown by 10.5% in rural Oregon, 32% in Oregon, and 47.4% U.S. Earnings in rural Oregon were 90% of the average earnings per job in the U.S. in 1969 and now they are 67%.

12 Example Eight of the 18 counties on this side of the mountains have median ages over 45. Rural Oregon has trouble retaining its youth and pretty soon retirees will move back to metro areas.

13 Where have all the consumers gone?

14 Regional Economy Hood River, Sherman & Wasco Counties 2010 Data Description Employment - Full & Part-time Output ($) Total Value Added ($) Total 31,004 3,101,954,962 1,622,958,251 Ag, Forestry, Fish & Hunting 4, ,526, ,500,392 Health & social services 4, ,599, ,849,104 Government 3, ,980, ,821,360 Retail trade 3, ,780, ,139,568 Accommodation & food services 2, ,552,320 77,834,888 Manufacturing 1, ,449, ,369,232 Professional- scientific & tech svcs 1, ,136,784 98,171,032 Other services 1, ,321,008 41,727,064 Construction 1, ,732,752 57,991,376 Administrative & waste services 1,190 58,866,668 25,129,070 Arts- entertainment & recreation ,415,128 21,876,768 Real estate & rental ,726, ,998,320 Finance & insurance ,008,096 55,061,804 Wholesale Trade ,346,192 83,982,400 Information ,276,720 36,690,816 Transportation & Warehousing ,436,400 31,196,672 Educational svcs ,172,601 4,769,363 Management of companies ,103,110 8,512,747 Mining ,622,487 2,732,019 Utilities 96 42,900,616 32,604,256

15 Regional Economy - Leakages Description Intermediate Goods (Production Process) Institutional (Households) Total Imports from Outside Region Total 930,225, ,664,297 1,746,890,278 Manufacturing 439,010, ,644, ,655,090 Finance & insurance 94,677,567 89,103, ,780,602 Real estate & rental 48,658,195 87,943, ,602,005 Professional- scientific & tech svcs 61,517,303 20,880,198 82,397,501 Other services 23,175,991 52,280,388 75,456,379 Mining 62,088, ,307 62,194,907 Information 30,912,472 24,722,765 55,635,237 Wholesale Trade 22,922,218 32,190,105 55,112,324 Transportation & Warehousing 35,800,156 17,806,765 53,606,920 Health & social services 855,267 39,425,632 40,280,900 Administrative & waste services 30,597,918 5,851,855 36,449,772 Educational svcs 2,008,762 32,879,761 34,888,522 Utilities 16,921,932 15,497,475 32,419,407 Management of companies 28,351, ,351,229 Retail trade 1,517,537 23,411,518 24,929,055 Ag, Forestry, Fish & Hunting 21,895,128 2,892,442 24,787,570 Accommodation & food services 3,522,348 12,760,984 16,283,333 Arts- entertainment & recreation 4,049,884 11,519,110 15,568,994 Construction 1,612,990 7,353,229 8,966,219 Government 129,619 2,394,693 2,524,312

16 Opportunities Aging Boomers 10 years half >65 Reduced land and labor costs Skilled labor availability Value of dollar declines moderately increasing export opportunities, yet increasing energy costs Familiarity with the internet Converging food consumption patterns worldwide I-84 Proximity to Portland-Vancouver Metro

17 Rungs of the Ladder Optimize education -focus on education, mentoring, and apprenticeships by investing more money and time a lot more and consolidate administration/services not facilities Create and test regional and local identities Know your elevator pitch and the mental image it creates. Drink more coffee with business owners. Visit other places. Put your work and money into locally owned businesses (e.g. investments to compete with large retailers) and businesses that use local suppliers. Consider a formal Business Retention and Expansion (BR&E) projects Flood your decision makers with bold ideas, encourage them to take risks, and use their failures. Expect your decision makers and community leaders to demonstrate their commitment by have the difficult conversations with competitors Find any way you can to bring newcomers into the community and diversify your people and ideas. Keep up the good work that your are already doing by protecting your core industries and programs.

18 Questions?

19 OREGON COUNTY MONITOR - A report for each county in Oregon that includes measures of families ability to meet their basic needs. (Current site is still in Beta mode. Please let us know if you have comments or suggestions.) OREGON REGIONAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS PROJECT - A web-based program to create graphic trends analysis of local economic indicators and generate analysis of local employment growth. OREGON RURAL COMMUNITIES EXPLORER -An online toolset that includes data and other information to increase understanding of rural issues including vitality and change in Oregon's rural communities.

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