2040 Demographic Forecast

Transcription

1 Public Meetings July 30-31, 2007 North Central Texas Council of Governments Transportation Department

2 Forecast Geography This forecast will provide long-range, small area population, household and employment projections in five-year intervals through the year 2040.

3 Forecast Review Process NCTCOG Creates Initial Dataset and Reviews Local Government and Public Review Appeal process NCTCOG Reviews Changes NCTCOG Staff Dispute Procedures Executive Board Approval NCTCOG Executive Board

4 Regional Control Totals Year Population Employment million 3.3 million 2010* 6.7 million 3.7 million *Control totals are subject to change.

5 Land Use Model Geography DRAM/EMPAL models to 777 forecast districts.

6 Local Review Geography NCTCOG disaggregates district data to 6,672 Traffic Survey Zones.

7 Guidelines for Local Government Review The NCTCOG Executive Board is the sole governing body for NCTCOG s Demographic Forecast. Local governments will review the Demographic Forecast outcomes at the Traffic Survey Zone (TSZ) level. Local governments will review demographics for the years of 2010, 2015, and regional levels of households and employment are subject to change based on the local review. For 2015 and 2040, regional totals will not be adjusted during local review. Cities may provide information about maximum density allowed to NCTCOG staff. NCTCOG will maintain that limit for a minimum of two 5-year increments.

8 Procedures for 2010 Local Government Review In instances where only a portion of a TSZ is located within a local government s jurisdiction, the following steps will be taken to prepare data for city review: NCTCOG will determine the percentage of developable land (not park or floodplain) in the TSZ that is located within each city. NCTCOG will split the demographic data based on this percentage.

9 Procedures for 2010 Local Government Review Minor Adjustments: For households in each TSZ, cities may adjust up to 25% or 250 total households, whichever is lower. NCTCOG shall accept the change. Changes: For households in each TSZ, cities may suggest adjustments over 25% or 250 total households, however, the city must provide evidence to support the change. Evidence is proof of tangible progress toward construction. NCTCOG may accept or reject changes based on information provided. The same rules apply for employment adjustments.

10 Procedures for 2010 Local Government Review Evidence Current zoning allows the project to be built by right. A building permit for a building within the development has been pulled. A subdivision plat/replat has been requested. Construction loans or other grant documents have been processed. If the development is a planned development (PD), a site plan has been submitted to the city council for approval. Other evidence may be submitted for review. NCTCOG will review other evidence, meet with the city if needed, and determine appropriate changes. NCTCOG may accept or reject changes based on evidence provided.

11 Procedures for 2010 Local Government Review Cities are requested, but not required, to provide input to NCTCOG where growth should be taken from or added. Local governments will have 30 days to submit modifications to NCTCOG. Local governments are asked to submit a final approval of the 2010 household population and employment to NCTCOG via fax, , or U.S. mail. A template document will be available for download from the NCTCOG 2040 Demographic Forecast web site.

12 Procedures for 2010 Local Government Review Modification Dispute: In the event that a member request cannot be resolved through informal discussions between NCTCOG staff and the jurisdiction, the following steps shall be taken: Local governments must present their case for the requested modifications to members of the Demographic Forecast Local Review Group for discussion and final recommendation. Appeals of the recommendations of the Local Review Group and NCTCOG staff will be made to the NCTCOG Executive Board in conformance with their policies and procedures.

13 Important Dates July 27, 2007 Surface Transportation Technical Committee Meeting July 30-31, 2007 Transportation Department Public Meeting August 9, 2007 Regional Transportation Council Meeting August 2007 Local Government Review of Data

14 For More Information: Alicia Hopkins or Duane Dankesreiter