POLITICAL CLIMATE. Roger Tutterow, Ph.D. Coles College of Business Kennesaw State t University

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1 ON THE ECONOMIC, BUSINESS AND POLITICAL CLIMATE Roger Tutterow, Ph.D. Coles College of Business Kennesaw State t University it CCUL Coastal Supervisory Committee & Internal Auditor Conference July 24, 2015 Charleston, SC

2 U.S. Quarterly GDP Average Growth Rates Last 4 Expansions 5.0 Quarterly GDP Average 4 expansion average % GDP vs. Final Sales 4% 2% -2% -4% -6% GDP Final Sales -8% -1 1Q-07 3Q-07 1Q-08 3Q-08 1Q-09 3Q-09 1Q-10 3Q-10 1Q-11 3Q-11 1Q-12 3Q-12 1Q-13 3Q-13 1Q-14 3Q-14 1Q-15 Page 1

3 Contributions To GDP Growth GDP = Consumption Gross Net Exports Government Investment 2013:Q :Q :Q :Q : Q : Q : Q Gross Investment = Nonresidential Residential Inventory 2013: Q : Q : Q : Q : Q : Q : Q ISM s PMI Jan-00 Sep-00 May-01 Jan-02 Sep-02 May-03 Jan-04 Sep-04 May-05 Sep-06 May-07 Sep-08 May-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Sep-12 May-13 Jan-14 Sep-14 May-15 Page 2

4 120 Foreign Exchange: Trading Partners Jan-02 Sep-02 May-03 Jan-04 Sep-04 May-05 Sep-06 May-07 Sep-08 May-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Sep-12 May-13 Jan-14 Sep-14 Consumer Sentiment Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Page 3

5 Retail Sales: 12% 9% 6% 3% -3% -6% -9% RS Total RS ex-auto -12% Jan-96 Nov-96 Sep-97 Jul-98 May-99 Mar-00 Jan-01 Nov-01 Sep-02 Jul-03 May-04 Mar-05 Nov-06 Sep-07 Jul-08 May-09 Mar-10 Jan-11 Nov-11 Sep-12 May-14 Mar Car & Truck Sales (SAAR, in millions) Auto Light Truck Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Page 4

6 Leading Economic Indicators (source: Conference Board, % change in last 6 months) 9% 6% 3% -3% -6% -9% -12% -15% Nov-04 Mar-05 Jul-05 Nov-05 Mar-06 Jul-06 Nov-06 Mar-07 Jul-07 Nov-07 Mar-08 Jul-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov Change in Employment (non-farm payrolls) Jan-00 Oct-00 Jul-01 Apr-02 Jan-03 Oct-03 Apr-05 Oct-06 Jul-07 Apr-08 Jan-09 Oct-09 Jul-10 Apr-11 Oct-12 Apr-14 Jan-15 Page 5

7 State Employment (Jobs Lost) 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% -3% -6% -9% -12% -15% North Dakota Alaska District of Col South Dakota Texas Nebraska West Virginia New York Louisiana Massachusetts Iowa Oklahoma New Hampshire Vermont Pennsylvania Montana Maine Kansas Arkansas Virginia Wyoming Minnesota Missouri Maryland New Mexico Colorado Washington Wisconsin New Jersey Kentucky Rhode Island Mississippi Connecticut Illinois Hawaii Indiana Utah Delaware Tennessee Alabama Ohio North Carolina South Carolina Georgia California Oregon Idaho Michigan Florida Arizona Nevada State Employment (Jobs Added) 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% -3% -6% North Dakota Utah Texas Colorado California Florida Idaho Washington Nevada Michigan Tennessee South Carolina Oregon Georgia Arizona North Carolina Delaware Indiana District of Col Kentucky Oklahoma Hawaii New York Ohio Massachusetts Minnesota Montana Maryland Alaska Iowa Nebraska South Dakota Louisiana Wisconsin Kansas Vermont Wyoming Connecticut Illinois Rhode Island Virginia Arkansas Pennsylvania Alabama New Hampshire Mississippi New Jersey Missouri New Mexico West Virginia Maine Page 6

8 State Employment (Net Change) 21% 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% -3% -6% North Dakota Texas District of Col Utah Alaska Colorado Washington New York Massachusetts South Dakota Oklahoma Nebraska California Louisiana Iowa Montana Tennessee Minnesota Idaho South Carolina Kentucky Vermont Georgia Maryland Kansas Oregon North Carolina Indiana Wyoming Florida Hawaii Delaware West Virginia Virginia Pennsylvania New Hampshire Arkansas Michigan Wisconsin Ohio Connecticut Rhode Island Illinois Missouri New Jersey New Mexico Arizona Mississippi Maine Alabama Nevada US Employment Shift by Sector 4 3 Loss Recover Total Mining Const Manuf T T & Util Info Fin Prof & Biz Ser Educ & HC Leis & Hosp Other Serv Govt Page 7

9 1 5% Employment: North Carolina Net L12M -5% -1-15% NC Asheville Burlington Charlotte Durham Fayetteville Goldsboro Greenville Durham Hickory Jacksonville New Bern Raleigh Rocky Mount Wilmington Winston-Salem Employment Change: SC Cities 16% Charleston HHI G'ville 14% Myrtle Beach Sp'burg 12% SC 1 Recovery Columbia Sumter 8% 6% Florence 4% 2% -14% -12% -1-8% -6% -4% -2% Recession Page 8

10 8% 6% 4% 2% -2% Employment: South Carolina Net L12M -4% SOUTH CAROLIN NA Charlesto on Columb bia Florenc ce Greenvil lle Hilton Hea ad Myrtle Beac ch Spartanbu rg Sumt er 25% 2 15% Employment: Florida Net L12M 1 5% -5% -1 FL Daytona Gainesville Jacksonville Lakeland Ocala Orlando Melborne Port St Lucie Vero Beach The Villages W Palm Beach Page 9

11 Employment Change: GA Cities 16% 14% Gainesville 12% 1 Atlanta Savannah Recovery GEORGIA 8% Athens Augusta Macon 6% Valdosta Columbus 4% Hinesville Brunswick Rome 2% Albany Warner Robins Dalton -25% -2-15% -1-5% Recession 1 5% Employment: Georgia Net L12M -5% -1-15% GEORGIA Albany Athens Atlanta Augusta Brunswick Columbus Dalton Gainesville Hinesville Macon Rome Savannah Valdosta Warner Robins Page 10

12 Prices: Still talk of Deflation/Inflation? CPI rose by 0.4% in May after having risen by 0.1% and 0.2% in April and March. Core CPI up 0.1% in May after having been up by 0.3% and 0.2% in April & March. Overall CPI is flat over last 12 months. Core up 1.7% over same period. Energy component was up by 4.3% in May and down by 16.3% over the last 12 months Core CPI & Core PCE (% change, L12M) 3.5% 3. Core CPI Core PCE 2.5% % % 0. Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Page 11

13 Crude Oil (Spot Price, WTI) Jan-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Federal Funds Rate Short Rates on Hold to mid 15? Page 12

14 10-Year Treasury Bonds: When Up? 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Jan-00 Oct-00 Jul-01 Apr-02 Jan-03 Oct-03 Apr-05 Oct-06 Jul-07 Apr-08 Jan-09 Oct-09 Jul-10 Apr-11 Oct-12 Apr-14 Jan-15 14% Five Little PIIGS 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% Portugal Ireland Italy Greece Spain Page 13

15 Bankers on C&I Loan Demand? Oct-91 Oct-92 Oct-93 Oct-94 Oct-95 Oct-96 Oct-97 Oct-98 Oct-99 Oct-00 Oct-01 Oct-02 Oct-03 Oct-04 Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 18% 16% Credit Card 14% Consumer Business 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% Loan Delinquency Jan-91 Mar-92 May-93 Jul-94 Sep-95 Nov-96 Jan-98 Mar-99 May-00 Jul-01 Sep-02 Nov-03 Jan-05 Mar-06 May-07 Jul-08 Sep-09 Nov-10 Mar-13 Page 14

16 Page 15

17 Credit Unions: Credit Quality Delinquency Ratio Net Charge-Off Ratio 1Q-07 2Q-07 3Q-07 4Q-07 1Q-08 2Q-08 3Q-08 4Q-08 1Q-09 2Q-09 3Q-09 4Q-09 1Q-10 2Q-10 3Q-10 4Q-10 1Q-11 2Q-11 3Q-11 4Q-11 1Q-12 2Q-12 3Q-12 4Q-12 1Q-13 2Q-13 3Q-13 4Q-13 1Q-14 2Q-14 3Q-14 4Q-14 1Q-15 Net Interest Margin % % % 2. Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Page 16

18 Credit Unions: Net Worth Ratio Q-07 2Q-07 3Q-07 4Q-07 1Q-08 2Q-08 3Q-08 4Q-08 1Q-09 2Q-09 3Q-09 4Q-09 1Q-10 2Q-10 3Q-10 4Q-10 1Q-11 2Q-11 3Q-11 4Q-11 1Q-12 2Q-12 3Q-12 4Q-12 1Q-13 2Q-13 3Q-13 4Q-13 1Q-14 2Q-14 3Q-14 4Q-14 1Q-15 25% 2 15% 1 5% -5% -1-15% -2-25% -3 Construction Spending Public Private Jan-01 Aug-01 Mar-02 Oct-02 May-03 Dec-03 Feb-05 Sep-05 Apr-06 Nov-06 Jun-07 Aug-08 Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10 Jul-11 Feb-12 Sep-12 Apr-13 Nov-13 Jun-14 Page 17

19 Construction Spending: Private Residential Non-Residential Jan-01 Aug-01 Mar-02 Oct-02 May-03 Dec-03 Feb-05 Sep-05 Apr-06 Nov-06 Jun-07 Aug-08 Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10 Jul-11 Feb-12 Sep-12 Apr-13 Nov-13 Jun-14 Non-Residential Construction Lodging Office Commercial Health care Educational Religious Public safety Amuse & Rec Transportation Communication Power Highway and street Sewage & waste disp Water supply Conserv and develop Manufacturing Page 18

20 US Housing Starts: SF and Total (12 month moving average) Total SF Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jul US Housing Starts: Multi-family (12 month moving average) Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Page 19

21 NC Housing Starts: Multi-family (12 month moving average) Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jan SC Housing Starts: Multi-family (12 month moving average) Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Page 20

22 FL Housing Starts: Multi-family (12 month moving average) Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jan GA Housing Starts: Multi-family (12 month moving average) Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Page 21

23 The Demographics: Boom & Bust The Demographics: Living Longer (life expectancy at 60) Page 22

24 Home Prices & CPI CPI Case-Shiller Jan-87 Nov-87 Sep-88 Jul-89 May-90 Mar-91 Jan-92 Nov-92 Sep-93 Jul-94 May-95 Mar-96 Jan-97 Nov-97 Sep-98 Jul-99 May-00 Mar-01 Jan-02 Nov-02 Sep-03 May-05 Mar-06 Jan-07 Nov-07 Sep-08 Jul-09 May-10 Mar-11 Nov-12 CS/S&P Home Price Index (FROM PEAK TO DECEMBER 2014) Drop Since peak -6-7 Dallas Denver Boston Charlotte Cleveland New York National-US Portland Seattle Washington Composite-20 Composite-10 Minneapolis Chicago Atlanta Los Angeles San Diego San Francisco Detroit Tampa Miami Phoenix Las Vegas Page 23

25 3 Home Prices: SE Region AL AR FL GA IA IL IN KY LA MO -2 MS NC SC TN TX Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 NC MSA Home Prices 2 Bust 15% 1 5% -5% -1-15% -2-25% -3 Recover Net Asheville Burlington Charlotte Durham-CH Fayetteville Goldsboro Greensboro-HP Greenville Hickory Jacksonville New Bern Raleigh Rocky Mount Wilmington Winston-Salem Page 24

26 SC MSA Home Prices Bust -3-4 Recover Net Charlesto on Columb bia Florenc ce Greenvil lle Hilton Head Islan nd Myrtle Beac ch Spartanbu rg Sumt er FL MSA Home Prices Bust Recover Net Gainesville e Jacksonville Lakeland Lakeland Melbourne e Ocala a Orlando Port St. Lucie The Villages s Vero Beach W Palm Beach Page 25

27 GA MSA Home Prices 3 Bust 2 Recover 1 Net Albany Athens Atlanta Augusta Brunswick Columbus Dalton Gainesville Hinesville Macon Rome Savannah Valdosta Warner Robins Household RE Equity (in $ Billions) Jan-00 Sep-00 May-01 Jan-02 Sep-02 May-03 Jan-04 Sep-04 May-05 Sep-06 May-07 Sep-08 May-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Sep-12 May-13 Jan-14 Sep-14 Page 26

28 Currents Issues in Fiscal Affairs Federal: Government default avoided in 2011 & 2013 what about 2015? In Play: Affordable Care Act, Keystone, Dodd-Frank, EPA, NLRB, SCOTUS. National solution to student debt? States: Bond ratings preserved during downturn Tax Reform Initiatives in other States Recent gains in manufacturing facilities due to reshoring SE states domination biz location ranking Local: RE valuation and revenues rising Fiscal distress moderating Page 27

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