Regional Demographic Shifts and Their Implications for Higher Education

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1 Regional Demographic Shifts and Their Implications for Higher Education Minnesota State University Moorhead Forum Moorhead, MN Dec. 1, 2008 Dr. Richard Rathge Professor and Director North Dakota State Data Center Material also provided by Tom Stinson, Minnesota State Economist Tom Gillaspy, Minnesota State Demographer 1 North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND Phone: (701) URL:

2 Presentation Objective: e: 1. Review regional population movement 2. Discuss implications for labor force 3. Briefly explore impact of demographics on Higher Education 2 North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND Phone: (701) URL:

3 Population Change for MN, ND,SD, sands) Populatio on (in thou Minnesota North Dakota South Dakota North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND Phone: (701) URL:

4 4 North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND Phone: (701) URL:

5 Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center, September

6 Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center, September

7 Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center, September

8 Projected Percent Change in Total Population in the Great Plains States by County: 2000 to 2020 Note: For purposes of this study, the Great Plains is defined as all counties in Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses; Individual state agencies providing population projections Decrease: -10% or more Decrease: 0% to -9.9% Increase: 0% to 19.9% 9% Increase: 20% to 59.9% Increase: 60% or more 8 North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND Phone: (701) URL:

9 Minnesota Has 5 Ruralplexes (And One Metroplex) RURALPLEX Northwest Valley Up North Central Lakes Sourthwest Corn Belt Southeast River Valley Metroplex

10 Population Change 1970 to 2000 And 2005 to Av erage Ann ual Rate of Growth 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% 0.17% 0.53% 0.58% Northwest Valley 0.06% 06% Up North 1.27% 1.02% Central Lakes -0.56% 0.05% 05% Southwest Corn Belt 0.47% 0.17% Southeast River Valley 1.25% 1.06% Metroplex

11 Most Ruralplex See Little Natural Increase Natural Increase Migration Rate Per 1000 Population in Northwest Up North Central Southwest Southeast Valley Lakes Corn Belt River Valley Metroplex Census Bureau estimates

12 N.D. Rural-Urban Population Distribution, Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Decennial Censuses. Percent Rural Urban Year Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center May

13 North Dakota Cass County 4 similar il counties 40 similar counties McIntosh County Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center May

14 Percent Change in Total Population Estimatesfor t North Dakota by County: July 1, 2005 to July 1, 2006 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Table 1. Annual Estimates of the Population for Counties: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2006 (CO-EST ), estimates.php. Divide Williams Burke Bottineau Rolette Cavalier Pembina Renville Towner Mountrail Ward McHenry Pierce Benson Ramsey Walsh United States = 1.0% North Dakota = 0.2% Loss: -2.1%to-4.1% Loss: -0.0% to -2.0% Gain: 0.0% to 2.0% McKenzie Nelson Grand Forks McLean Eddy Dunn Mercer Sheridan Wells Foster Griggs Steele Traill Billings Oliver Golden Valley Stark Morton Burleigh Kidder Stutsman Barnes Cass Slope Hettinger Grant Emmons Logan LaMoure Ransom Richland Bowman Adams Sioux McIntosh Dickey Sargent Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center May

15 A Maturing Age Distribution, 2000 (National data) Male Female Population (in millions) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base. 15 North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND Phone: (701) URL:

16 A Maturing Age Distribution, 2020 Male Female Population (in millions) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base. 16 North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND Phone: (701) URL:

17 Baby Boomers enter system million/yr or 5,000 a day (on average) Baby Boomers enter age 85 North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND Phone: (701) URL: 17 Source: Older Americans 2004

18 Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the Total Population in North Dakota by County: 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Divide Burke Renville Bottineau Rolette Towner Cavalier Pembina Williams Mountrail Ward McHenry Pierce Benson Ramsey Walsh McKenzie Dunn McLean Mercer Sheridan Wells Eddy Foster Nelson Griggs Grand Forks Steele Traill Golden Valley Billings Stark Oliver Morton Burleigh Kidder Stutsman Barnes Cass Slope Hettinger Grant Emmons Logan LaMoure Ransom Richland Bowman Adams Sioux McIntosh Dickey Sargent Less than 15% 15% to 21.9% 22% to 27.9% 28% or more Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center, September

19 Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the Total Population in North Dakota by County: 2020 Source: North Dakota State Data Center, North Dakota Population Projections: 2005 to 2020, Sept Divide Renville Burke Bottineau Rolette Cavalier Towner Pembina Williams Mountrail Ward McHenry Pierce Benson Ram sey Walsh Nelson Grand Forks McKenzie Dunn Mercer McLean Sheridan Wells Eddy Foster Griggs Steele Traill Billings Oliver Burleigh Kidder Stutsman Barnes Cass Stark Morton Slope Hettinger Grant Emm ons Logan LaMoure Ransom Richland Bowman Adams Sioux McIntosh Dickey Sargent Less than 15% 15% to 21.9% 22% to 27.9% 28% or more Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center, September

20 Projected Change in Population 2005 to % Total Age % 40% 37.0% 35.9% 41.8% 34.7% 38.3% 45.9% 30% 20% 10% 0% 13.5% 5.4% 6.0% 4.8% 0.5% Northwest Up North Central Southwest Southeast Valley Lakes Corn Belt River Valley 11.1% Metroplex

21 2000 Census Rural and Urban Population Distributions by Age and Gender for North Dakota Traditional Babyboom X Generation Y Generation Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center May

22 60 Figure 2. Age-Specific Net Migration: Farm 's 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center May

23 60 Figure 4. Age-Specific Net Migration: Metro 's 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center May

24 MN, ND, and SD Residents who have Moved in Past Year by Age, % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Total Movers by State 14.7% 17.6% 17.0% 1 to to to to plus 30% 20% 10% 0% All Movers Movers to a All Movers Movers to a All Movers Movers to a Different Different Different County County County Minnesota North Dakota South Dakota Universe: Persons 1 year and older Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS, Table B North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND Phone: (701) URL:

25 Ruralplex Are Older And Have A Lower Proportion Of Children 65+ Under 15 25% 20% 15% 17.4% 20.1% 15.7% 19.3% 20.4% 19.5% 20.3% 20.4% 16.9% 15.7% 22.3% 10% 99% 9.9% 5% 0% Northwest Up North Central Southwest Southeast Valley Lakes Corn Belt River Valley Metroplex

26 Population of Persons Ages 0 to 9 and Ages 65 and Older North Dakota: 1890 to , , ,000 90,000 60, , Age 0 to 9 Age 65 and Older Prepared by the North Dakota State Data Center March 2007 North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND Phone: (701) Fax: (701) URL: 26

27 Presentation Objective: e: 1. Review regional population movement 2. Discuss implications for labor force 3. Briefly explore impact of demographics on Higher Education 27 North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND Phone: (701) URL:

28 Labor Force Will Grow, But Slowly In Some Areas 14% 12% 12.2% 12.0% Cha ange % 8% 6% 4% 2% 5.9% 4.7% 2.2% 5.4% 0% Northwest Valley Up North Central Lakes Southwest Corn Belt Southeast River Valley Metroplex

29 Labor Force Over Age 45 Will Increase Much More Rapidly % Change 45+LF % Change Under 45 LF CHan nge % 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 11.9% 1.4% 7.9% 25% 2.5% 18.5% 7.4% 9.5% 12.9% 0.1% 25.0% 4.3% -5% -10% Northwest Valley Up North Central Lakes -3.8% Southwest Corn Belt Southeast River Valley Metroplex

30 Projected Change 2005 to 2015 Population Age 15 To 24 Future Work Force 1% 01% 0.1% -1% -3% -5% -3.1% -7% -9% -7.9% -8.2% -11% -13% -9.7% -11.3% Northwest Up North Central Southwest Southeast Valley Lakes Corn Belt River Valley Metroplex

31 Change in North Dakota s Labor Force by Age: 1970 to 2020 Change in Labor Forc ce (Persons) 80,000 60,000 40, , ,000-40, to to to to to to to plus 45 to to to 34 Note: The change in labor force participation was calculated for 2010, 2015, and 2020 by applying the 2006 ACS labor force participation rates to the population projections. Sources - U.S. Census Bureau: 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 Census; 2006 ACS. North Dakota State Data Center: North Dakota Population Projections by Age and Gender: 2010, 2015, North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND Phone: (701) URL:

32 North Dakota s Labor Force Participation i i Rates by Age: 1980 to % 80% Percent in Labor Force 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% % 0% 20 to to to to to to to to plus 32 North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND Phone: (701) URL: Sources - U.S. Census Bureau: 1980, 1990 and 2000 Census; 2006 ACS

33 Presentation Objective: e: 1. Review regional population movement 2. Discuss implications for labor force 3. Briefly explore impact of demographics on Higher Education 33 North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND Phone: (701) URL:

34 Historical and Projected Change in ND K-12 Enrollment Percent Change from Previous Year Source: Department of Public Instruction

35 Resident Live Births, and High School Graduates, in North Dakota Source: North Dakota Department of Health; North Dakota Department of Public Instruction, Bismarck ND.

36 Resident Live Births, and High School Graduates, in Minnesota 36 North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND Phone: (701) URL:

37 Demographic Presentation 2008 Dr. Richard Rathge, Director North Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND NDSU, IACC 424, Fargo, ND Phone: (701) Fax: (701) URL: 37 North Dakota State University, IACC Building, Room 424, Fargo, ND Phone: (701) URL:

ND Academic Scholarship and ND Career and Technical Education Scholarship

ND Academic Scholarship and ND Career and Technical Education Scholarship Progress Overview September 29, 2011 Prepared for the State Board of Higher Education Presented to Higher Education Committee November