NSF EPSCoR Track 1 Climate Change Annual Report Form Seed Grant

Transcription

1 DUE DATE: January 31, 2011 NSF EPSCoR Track 1 Climate Change Annual Report Form Seed Grant Project Lead: Karletta Chief Lead Institution: Desert Research Institute Lead /Phone: kchief@cals.arizona.edu; Project Lead Signature: Dear NSF EPSCoR 2010 Seed Grant Awardee: Please answer the following questions concisely and completely. Your report must cover activity from July 1, 2010 through June 30, 2011, unless you received a no cost extension (NCE). If you did receive a NCE, please indicate so and report on activity up through your NCE date. Submit your completed Annual Report Form by the due date above to Nick.Lancaster@dri.edu, and copy michele_casella@nshe.nevada.edu. 1. List the Goals, objectives, and expected outcomes of the project. Goal: Develop a conceptual model that couples human, socio political, and bio physical systems and develop a collaborative model that can be used to communicate and reach negotiated adaptive management strategies. Objective: Build feedback loops and constraints of a conceptual collaborative system dynamics model and evaluate the vulnerability of Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe TROA water rights under the impacts of climate change by addressing the following research questions. 1. What are the differences in stakeholders perception on vulnerability to climate change of PLPT Indian water rights in the Truckee River Basin? 2. What are crucial socio political aspects for TROA s adaptive management strategies under the uncertainty of climate change? What does a stakeholders power relations diagram and collaborative system dynamics model for adaptive management look like? 3. How does the TROA conceptual climate environment society feedback model of key stakeholders differ with each other and with expert elicited model? 4. How flexible is TROA to alternative water resources management strategies under additional stressors like climate change? What are major adaptive management strategies and policy levers? How current drought policies are either sufficient or insufficient as part of major adaptive management strategies under climate change impacts?

2 Expected Outcomes: Task 1: Evaluation of plural perspectives on perceived vulnerability of Indian water rights in Truckee River Basin using a questionnaire. Task 2: Development of a conceptual Climate Environment Society Feedback (CESF) model for each stakeholder group including policy makers using semi structured interviews and focus group discussions. Task 3: Evaluation of the flexibility of water management alternatives in an adaptive management framework under TROA and the development of expert s conceptual model by a) evaluating and mapping the power relations among major stakeholders; b) generating a conceptual description of the constraints and feedback loops within TROA; c) reviewing available hydrological/hydraulic/ecological models for Pyramid Lake; d) discussing the conceptual descriptions of the biophysical system with relevant experts; e) synthesizing a conceptual CESF model of the system (expert elicited model); f) comparing the expert elicited conceptual model with the models elicited from stakeholder groups from Task 2, and g) synthesizing key implications for future collaborative system dynamics model development task under adaptive management framework (Task 5). Task 4: Disseminate the project outcomes a) publish results in a peer reviewed journal; b) present at the Nevada Water Resources Association annual meeting; c) disseminate results to PLPT, other stakeholders, and the Federal Water Master; and d) submit an annual report to EPSCoR. Task 5: A proposal to NSF Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems The proposed study will provide preliminary data, conceptual knowledge, and relationships that will be used to submit a competitive proposal to NSF Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems. Major Expected Deliverables 1. Preliminary data to expand the scope of the study through a competitive proposal to NSF 2. Peer reviewed journal publication 3. Professional and tribal presentations 4. Conceptual model that is a collaborative effort and stakeholder driven 5. Final report 2. If you have not completed the project, when is the expected date of completion for the scope of work? December Summarize the results of the project. A climate change survey was administered to PLPT, analyzed, and presented to PLPT. Preliminary semi structured interviews and one on one interviews were conducted of tribal and non tribal stakeholders. A literature review was conducted on Truckee River tribal water rights and TROA.

3 Power relations of stakeholders were mapped. A conceptual model of constraints and feedback loops was developed, presented to PLPT, and refined. Focus group session was held with PLPT to discuss conceptual model. Climate scenarios were evaluated for this region. Two papers were written: 1) Evolution and vulnerability of PLPT tribal water resources under climate change and 2) Integrated assessment of CC on Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe. These papers will be submitted to a peer reviewed journal in May Results were presented to PLPT in October Graduate student Kiersten presented Analysis of Stakeholder Influence in Truckee River Operating Agreement Negotiations at the Nevada Water Resources Association Meeting in Fall 2011 and PI Mahesh Gautam presented A systematic approach to vulnerability analysis of Pyramid Lake Indian Water Rights under climate change at the Association of Environmental Engineering and Science Professors (AEESP) Annual Meeting in Summer Preliminary data was developed for a NSF proposal. We plan to submit a proposal in October Explain how the project utilized or supported the new infrastructure being developed as part of the NSF EPSCoR project? What were some of the successes and challenges in doing so? We leveraged existing climate change surveys and the network that was built by the policy component with tribes to do our research. This allowed us to increase the response rate of the surveys and collect more data that was beneficial to the greater survey effort. The challenge was finding different ways to approach the tribe, tribal members, and administer the survey to increase the survey response rate. 5. Describe the ways in which the project generated new data sets, new methods of data collection, archiving, or analysis; new instruments or technologies; and/or data that would support new conceptual frameworks? Same as response in question 4. We gathered biophysical and social data from tribal and non tribal stakeholders to develop a conceptual model. 6. Explain how the project addressed basic research needs that would be supported by NSF programs? Please state the specific NSF programs or NSF solicitations that support research addressed by your project. The project focused on climate change impacts on a vulnerable population using an interdisciplinary approach that coupled human and natural systems. This provides preliminary data to apply for a NSF CNH grant. 7. Did the project lead to follow on proposal to NSF or other granting agencies? Please list all proposals whether pending, funded or declined. If a proposal has not been submitted yet, please provide plans for submission (agency and program). (Note: Per the 2010 Seed Grant solicitation, a proposal to NSF or other major competitive grant programs should be submitted within six months of the completion of the project. ). We plan to submit a proposal in October We were still collecting data and was not prepared to submit a proposal in October 2011.

4 8. How many graduate students were supported by this project? Please provide their name, institution, and academic program. 1 graduate student, Kiersten Wilde, UNLV, environmental policy 9. How many undergraduate students were supported by this project? Please provide their name, institution, and academic program. 1 undergraduate student, Janine Winnemucca, Truckee Meadows Community College (TMCC), Environmental Science 10. Provide a budget summary detailing the expenditures in the project Postdoc support 11,804 Wages and fringe benefits 7,948 Travel 1,403 Operations 491 Sub<25KNOIC 3,389 Over run 51 Total 24, List any other outputs that have resulted from your research during the reporting period including: articles submitted to or published in refereed journals; talks, presentations, or abstracts at professional meetings; Patents awarded, pending, or licensed Posters: Gautam, M., K. Chief, K. Wilde, and W. Smith, Jr Climate change vulnerabilities an integrated assessment in Pyramid Lake Paiute Indian Reservation. Geophysical Union National Meetings, San Francisco, CA. 12/5/2011. K. Wilde, Gautam, M., Chief, K., J. Winnemucca, and W. Smith, Jr The vulnerability of Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribal Water Resources to Climate Change: Analysis of Perception, Power, and Influence. Nevada NSF EPSCOR Climate Change Conference, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV, February 1, Presentations: Chief, K., Gautam, M., K. Wilde, and W. Smith, Jr The vulnerability of Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribal Water Resources to Climate Change: Analysis of Perception, Power, and Influence. Indigenous Women Activism and Scholarship in the Spirit of Vine Deloria, Jr., Vine Deloria, Jr. Distinguished Scholars Series. Presented at University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ. 1/20/2011. K. Wilde, Chief, K., Gautam, M., and W. Smith, Jr Analysis of Stakeholder Influence in Truckee River Operating Agreement Negotiations. Nevada Water Resources Association 2011 Truckee River Symposium, September 27 28, 2011, Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada.

5 Gautam, M., K. Chief, and K. Wilde A systematic approach to vulnerability analysis of Pyramid Lake Indian Water Rights under climate change. Association of Environmental Engineering and Science Professors (AEESP) Research and Education Conference. Global Sustainability and Environmental Engineering and Society: Implications for Research, Education and Practice. July 10 12, 2011, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL. DVD: W. Smith, Jr., K. Chief, Gautam, M., and K. Wilde DVD: Climate change impacts on Nevada Tribes. The Nevada Infrastructure for Climate Change Science, Education, and Outreach Manuscripts: Chief, K., K. Wilde, and Gautam, M Evolution and Vulnerability of Pyramid Lake Indian Water Rights under Climate Change: Analysis of Perception, Power and Influence. In Preparation. Gautam, M. and K. Chief Climate change vulnerabilities an integrated assessment in Pyramid Lake Paiute Indian Reservation. In Preparation.