Analysis of the FY 2019 Defense Budget

Transcription

1 SEPTEMBER 2018 Analysis of the FY 2019 Defense Budget AUTHORS Todd Harrison Seamus P. Daniels A Report of the CSIS INTERNATIONAL SECURITY PROJECT S DEFENSE OUTLOOK SERIES

2

3 Analysis of the FY 2019 Defense Budget

4 About CSIS

5 Contents 1 Overview of Defense-Related Funding... 1 Total Defense-Related Funding in the Request... 1 Five-Year DoD Budget Projection... 3 OCO and Emergency Supplemental Funding... 5 Historical Perspectives Trends in the DoD Budget...10 Getting Less for More...10 Military and Civilian Personnel...12 Operation and Maintenance...15 Acquisitions Major Acquisition Programs...25 Aircraft...25 Shipbuilding...31 Air and Missile Defense...33 Missiles and Munitions...35 Space...38 Ground Systems...39 Communications and Electronics Trends in Force Structure and Funding by Service...43 Army...44 Navy...45 Air Force Conclusion...49 About the Authors...52 ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET III

6 IV TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS

7 1 Overview of Defense-Related Funding Total Defense-Related Funding in the Request ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 1

8 Table 1: Summary of Defense-Related Funding in the FY 2019 Request 2 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS

9 Five-Year DoD Budget Projection ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 3

10 Figure 1: DoD's FYDP Projections vs. Actuals 4 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS

11 Figure 2: DoD FYDP Projections from FY 1980 to FY 2019 OCO and Emergency Supplemental Funding ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 5

12 Figure 3: Funding Designated for Afghanistan vs. Troop Levels 6 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS

13 Historical Perspectives ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 7

14 Figure 4: National Defense Outlays as a Percentage of GDP and Total Federal Outlays 8 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS

15 Figure 5: National Defense Outlays Adjusted for Inflation ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 9

16 2 Trends in the DoD Budget Getting Less for More Figure 6: Trends in the DoD Budget, Active End Strength, and Civilian FTEs 10 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS

17 Figure 7: Increases in Budget and Active End Strength ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 11

18 Military and Civilian Personnel Figure 8: Growth in Compensation Costs 12 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS

19 Figure 9: Military and Civilian Pay Raises ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 13

20 14 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS

21 Operation and Maintenance ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 15

22 Figure 10: O&M Budget Authority per Active Service Member Figure 11: DoD O&M Budget in the FY 2019 Request by Activity 16 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS

23 Figure 12: Increases in O&M Operating Forces Costs, FY 2000 to FY 2019 ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 17

24 Figure 13: DoD Petroleum Consumption and Spending 18 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS

25 Figure 14: Cost of PME by Course Type and Service Acquisitions ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 19

26 Figure 15: Acquisition Funding Figure 16: Aircraft Procurement Funding 20 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS

27 Figure 17: Missiles and Munitions Procurement Funding ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 21

28 Figure 18: Classified Procurement Funding Figure 19: Space Procurement Funding 22 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS

29 Figure 20: RDT&E Funding by Budget Activity ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 23

30 Figure 21: Requested versus Final Unclassified S&T Funding 24 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS

31 3 Major Acquisition Programs Aircraft ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 25

32 26 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS

33 ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 27

34 28 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS

35 ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 29

36 30 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS

37 Shipbuilding ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 31

38 32 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS

39 Air and Missile Defense ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 33

40 34 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS

41 Missiles and Munitions ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 35

42 36 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS

43 ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 37

44 Space 38 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS

45 ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 39

46 Ground Systems 40 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS

47 ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 41

48 Communications and Electronics 42 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS

49 4 Trends in Force Structure and Funding by Service Figure 22: Service Shares of the Total DoD Budget ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 43

50 Figure 23: Percentage Change in Service Base Budgets from FY 2017 Level Army 44 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS

51 Figure 24: Army End Strength and Budget Navy ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 45

52 Figure 25: Navy Active Force Ships and Budget TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS

53 Air Force ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 47

54 Figure 26: Air Force Total Aircraft Inventory and Budget 48 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS

55 5 Conclusion ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 49

56 50 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS

57 ANALYSIS OF THE FY 2019 DEFENSE BUDGET 51

58 About the Authors 52 TODD HARRISON AND SEAMUS P. DANIELS

59 COVER PHOTO U.S. ARMY PHOTO BY STAFF SGT. TIMOTHY R. KOSTER 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW Washington, DC Lanham Boulder New York London 4501 Forbes Boulevard Lanham, MD ISBN Ë xhsleocy280892z v*:+:!:+:!