The Uncertain Cost of War(s) Problems for National Security Spending, Cost Calculation, and Future Plans

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1 1800 K Street, NW Suite 400 Washington, DC Phone: Fax: Web: The Uncertain Cost of War(s) Problems for National Security Spending, Cost Calculation, and Future Plans Dr. Anthony H. Cordesman, Robert Hammond, and Jordan D Amato Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy Updated October 13, 2010

2 2 Contents Historical Trend Data 7 DoD Estimates. 21 GAO Estimates 35 CRS Estimates.. 41 CBO Estimates.. 57 Key Cost Factors: Troop Levels 62 Spotlighting Afghan War Costs.. 67 Spotlighting Iraq War Costs Projected Future Costs 89 Homeland Security: The Other War 109

3 3 Overview This brief is a part of series prepared by the Burke Chair in Strategy on current issues in defense budgeting and strategy. Other briefs within this series include, The Coming Challenges in Defense Planning, Programming and Budgeting Unplanning for Uncertainty The Macroeconomics of US Defense Spending This brief focuses on the difficulty of accurately assessing the real costs of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as the problem of the Department of Defense s (DOD) over-reliance on emergency supplemental funding for Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) in Iraq and Afghanistan. It bases its analysis on research done by and statistics provided by the DOD, the Government Accountability Office (GAO), the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), and the Congressional Research Service (CRS). The first section analyzes the costs of war from WWII to present. The analysis in this section comes to three key conclusions. First, as of 2008 the CRS estimated the combined costs of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as the second highest in US history after WWII, surpassing the total spent on the Vietnam War in real terms (Slide 6). Second, while defense spending as a whole is high relative to Clinton Era spending, as a share of GDP and total federal outlays, recent defense spending is at one of its lowest points since WWII (Slide 7). Third, current US defense spending as a fraction of GDP and total federal outlays is lower than during any other wartime era since WWII except for the Gulf War (Slide 8). The following sections analyze funding for the Afghan and Iraq Wars since the beginning of major Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) operations in In contrast to funding for previous wars, Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) and Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) have been funded primarily through emergency supplemental spending bills.

4 4 Overview Until 2010 these supplemental funding requests were sent to Congress during the middle of each fiscal year, after Congress already received and passed the DOD s initial, fiscal year budget request for the year (Slide 10). Research presented in this report reveals that the DOD, for most of OEF and OIF, has essentially been running two concurrent budgets: an initial fiscal year budget to fund day-to-day DOD operations and budget based on emergency supplementals to fund OCO in Iraq and Af-Pak (Slide 10-27). It should be noted, however, that the different DOD, GAO, CBO, and CRS estimates that follow show that the actual war costs are difficult, if not impossible to precisely assess. The DOD, GAO, CBO, and CRS all arrive at different estimates of the real costs of war. It is important to note that the obscurity of war costs constitute a further, although perhaps intangible, cost in themselves. By perpetually underestimating the costs of war, supplemental war funding has essentially misled politicians into believing more discretionary funding is available than actually is. This in turn leads to inefficient policymaking and deeper deficit spending. Supplementals present special problems despite attempts by the Obama Administration and the DOD to institutionalize war funding into the DOD s FY 2011 Budget. The Administration still submitted its request for OCO funding a supplemental request, separate from the baseline DOD budget request. However, in a break from the past, the Administration submitted an OCO supplemental budget request simultaneously with its baseline budget requests. Moreover, comparison of the FY 2010 OCO supplemental, the FY 2010 emergency OCO supplemental and the FY 2011 OCO supplemental seems to reflect the Administration s efforts to institutionalize war funding into the FY 2011 budget request. Allowing for some variation due to changes in conditions and requirements on the ground, the FY 2011 OCO supplemental is roughly equivalent to the sum of initial and emergency FY 2010 OCO funding requests. This report also examines possible future war costs. This section comes to two key conclusions. First, difficulties associated with accurately assessing past war costs make extrapolating projections of future war costs difficult. Second, despite efforts in FY 2011 to institutionalize war funding into the initial budget request, any projections of future war costs remain heavily contingent upon factors exogenous to budgetary choices, such as the conditions on the ground and domestic support for the wars.

5 A High Cost Guesstimate of Strategic Partnership: FY2011-FY2015 (in $US billions) State maintains 5 facilities and provides security. State takes over police training support. No US combat role after FY2011. US provides FMS aid to Iraqi forces to give defense capability against Iran FY10 Enacted FY10 Total w Request FY11 Request FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 Cum -FY01 FY10 Cum -FY01 FY10 w State & AID * 43.4* VA Medical * 6.5* DoD * 752.0* Total 62.8* 65.8* 51.1* 25* 12.4* 12.4* 12.4* 747.6* 801.9* Source: Estimate by Anthony H. Cordesman based on Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11, Congressional Research Service, RL33110 CRS Report RL30588, July 16,

6 Guesstimate of Annual and Cumulative Cost of Worst Cost Success in the Afghan War: FY2010-FY2020 (In Current $US Billions) Extremely intense fighting with dropping allied support. --"Supplemental" in FY Make decisive gains by FY15. --US and ISAF withdrawal cautiously during FY15-FY17 --Maintain significant support funding of Afghan forces and government through FY2020 & beyond --DoD pays cost of police as well as armed forces, and protection of remaining civil & military advisory presence though FY FY01/ 02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 Enact ed FY10 Total w Cum FY01- FY10 DoD *284.3* *568.5*852.8 State/USAID *18.5 * *57.6 *76.1 VA Me dical *1.0 * *6.7 *7.7 Total War Funding *20.8 *14.7 *14.5 *20 *19 *39.2 *43.5 *59.5 *72.7 *104.8*303.8*455.2*119.4*126.4*121.4*109.3 *91.9 *29.2 *13.1 *10.1 *9.1 *9.1 *632.8*936.6 Cum FY01- FY11 FY11 Requ est FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Total Total FY11- FY01- FY20 FY20 Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from data in Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11, Congressional Research Service, RL33110 CRS Report RL30588, July 16,

7 Historical Trend Data

8 8 Cost of the Wars We Have Fought KEY POINTS: 1. CRS estimates the combined costs of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to be the second highest in real terms after WWII. 2. Defense spending as a whole is high relative to Clinton era spending, but low historically. 3. In historical terms, current Defense spending poses relatively little burden on the economy and federal budget. ANALYSIS: Public perception is that Defense spending places a heavy burden on the economy and the federal budget. However, DOD and CBO statistics demonstrate that the costs are not that high. In constant dollars, total spending on the GWOT, Iraq and Afghanistan just surpassed spending on Vietnam in Nevertheless, the burden of current Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) funding on the economy and federal budget is small relative to the costs of previous wars. In historical terms, current total Defense spending also places relatively little burden on the economy and federal spending.

9 9 The Total Cost in Blood of Major US Wars 1,200,000 1,000, , , , ,000 0 Revolutiona ry War War of 1812 Mexican War Civil War )Union( -Spanish American War WWI WWII Korean War :Vietnam Gulf War AfPak War Iraq War Duration / /2010 Combat Deaths 4,435 2,260 1, , , ,557 33,739 47, ,485 Other Deaths 11, ,097 2,061 63, ,842 2,835 10, Serious Wounded 6,188 4,505 4, ,881 1, , , , , ,290 12,899 Note: None of the data for different wars are directly comparable for historical reasons. The Civil War data do not include 74,524 Confederate battle deaths, 59,297 other deaths, and 26,000-31,000 deaths in Union POW camps. The wounded data in the totals assume that hospitalized wounded and WIA, Not returned to Duty provide the best historical comparison over time. There were 150,341 additional non-hospitalized wounded in Vietnam, 19,051 wounded and returned to duty in Iraq, and 4,103 wounded and returned to duty in AfPak as of 1/10/2010. A total of 343 more US military have died in peacekeeping & humanitarian missions since Graph adapted from data provided in Anne Leland & Mari-jana Oboroceanu, American War and Military Operations Casualties: Lists and Statistics, CRS RL325492, February 26, 2010; and casualty reporting on Defenselink as accessed on October 5, 2010.

10 US Casualty Details in Past Wars - I 10 Adapted from data provided in Anne Leland & Mari-jana Oboroceanu, American War and Military Operations Casualties: Lists and Statistics, CRS RL325492, February 26, 2010; and casualty reporting on Defenselink as accessed on October 5, 2010.

11 US Casualty Details in Past Wars - II 11

12 US Casualty Details in Past Wars - III Notes: Data prior to World War I are based on incomplete records in many cases. Casualty data are confined to dead and wounded and, therefore, exclude personnel captured or missing in action who were subsequently returned to military control. a. Marine Corps data for World War II, the Spanish-American War, and prior wars represent the number of individuals wounded, whereas all other data in this column represent the total number (incidence) of wounds. b. Not known, but estimates range from 184,000 to 250,000. c. As reported by the Commissioner of Pensions in the annual report for FY1903. d. Authoritative statistics for the Confederate forces are not available. Estimates of the number who served range from 600,000 to 1,500,000. The final report of the Provost Marshal General, , indicated 133,821Confederate deaths (74,524 battle and 59,297 other) based upon incomplete returns. In addition, an estimated 26,000 to 31,000 Confederate personnel died in Union prisons. e. The Marine Corps number serving is included in the Navy total. f. Number serving covers the period April 21 to August 13, 1898, while dead and wounded data are for the period May 1 to August 31, Active hostilities ceased on August 13, 1898, but ratifications of the Treaty of Peace were not exchanged between the United States and Spain until April 11, g. Includes air service. Battle deaths and wounds not mortal include casualties suffered by American forces in northern Russia to August 25, 1919, and in Siberia to April 1, Other deaths cover the period April 1, 1917, to December 31, h. Data are for the period December 1, 1941, through December 31, 1946, when hostilities were officially terminated by presidential proclamation, but a few battle deaths or wounds not mortal were incurred after the Japanese acceptance of the Allied peace terms on August 14, Number serving from December 1, 1941, through August 31, 1945, were: Total 14,903,213; Army 10,420,000; Navy 3,883,520; and Marine Corps 599,693. i. Includes Army air forces, also known as the Army Air Corps. j. Battle deaths and wounds not mortal include casualties incurred in October 1941 due to hostile action. k. Worldwide military deaths during the Korean War totaled 54,246. In-theater casualty records are updated annually. l. Number serving covers the period August 5, 1964, (Vietnam era begins) through January 27, 1973 (date of cease-fire). Deaths include the period November 1, 1955, (commencement date for the Military Assistance Advisory Group) through May 15, 1975 (date last American service member left Southeast Asia, i.e. Vietnam). Wounds not mortal exclude 150,332 persons not requiring hospital care. Casualty records are updated annually, including current deaths that are directly attributed to combat in the Vietnam Conflict. Additional detail now on table shows number of WIA service members not requiring hospital care. m. Coast Guard numbers are included with Navy. Casualty records are updated annually. Adapted from data provided in Anne Leland & Mari-jana Oboroceanu, American War and Military Operations Casualties: Lists and Statistics, CRS RL325492, February 26, 2010; as drawn from Defense Manpower Data Center, Statistical Information Analysis Division, personnel/casualty/wcprincipal.pdf. 12

13 The Cost in Blood of Recent Smaller Actions a. According to the Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms, as amended through 31 August 2005, a non-hostile casualty is a casualty that is not directly attributable to hostile action or terrorist activity, such as casualties due to the elements, self-inflicted wounds, or combat fatigue, available at b. The above-named reference defines a hostile casualty as a victim of a terrorist activity or a casualty as the result of combat or attack by any force against U.S. forces. Adapted from data provided in Anne Leland & Mari-jana Oboroceanu, American War and Military Operations Casualties: Lists and Statistics, CRS RL325492, February 26, 2010; Source: Defense Manpower Data Center, Statistical Information Analysis Division, personnel/casualty/table13.htm; and casualty reporting on Defenselink as accessed on October 5,

14 The Rising Impact of (Serious) Wounded on Total Casualties a. Current as of July 4, 2009, includes deaths due to Hostile and Non-Hostile causes. b. Current as of July 13, 2009; includes Major Limb Amputation and Amputation of Toes, Thumbs, Fingers, Partial Hand, and Partial Foot. c. Individual soldiers may have multiple amputations. Note: Does not reflect impact of serious head wounds, a major shift in casualty impact in the Iraq and Afghan Wars Adapted from data provided in Anne Leland & Mari-jana Oboroceanu, American War and Military Operations Casualties: Lists and Statistics, CRS RL325492, February 26, 2010; and Department of Defense Military Casualties website, at amputation information and PowerPoint presentation provided by Dr. Michael Carino of the Office of the Surgeon General, U.S. Army. 14

15 DoD Estimate of Casualties in Afghan-Pakistan and Iraq Wars as of 1/10/2010 * OPERATION ENDURING FREEDOM (Other Locations), includes casualties that occurred in Guantanamo Bay (Cuba), Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Jordan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Philippines, Seychelles, Sudan, Tajikistan, Turkey, Uzbekistan, and Yemen. * OPERATION IRAQI FREEDOM includes casualties that occurred between March 19, 2003, and August 31, 2010, in the Arabian Sea, Bahrain, Gulf of Aden, Gulf of Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Persian Gulf, Qatar, Red Sea, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. Prior to March 19, 2003, casualties in these countries were considered OEF. Personnel injured in OIF who die after 1 September 2010 will be included in OIF statistics. * OPERATION NEW DAWN includes casualties that occurred on or after September 1, 2010 in the Arabian Sea, Bahrain, Gulf of Aden, Gulf of Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Persian Gulf, Qatar, Red Sea, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. Wounded show the number of service members who were Wounded In Action (WIA) and Returned to Duty within 72 hours AND WIA and Not Returned to Duty within 72 hours. To determine the total WIA figure, add the columns "WIA RTD" and " WIA Not RTD" together.. **** OPERATION ENDURING FREEDOM (Afghanistan only), includes casualties that occurred in Afghanistan only. Graph adapted from data provided in casualty reporting on Defenselink as accessed on October 5,

16 16 The Total Cost in Dollars and Percent of GDP of Major US Wars ($US in Millions) Graph adapted from data provided in Stephen Daggett, Costs of Major Wars, Congressional Research Service, RS22925, June 29, 2010.

17 The Total Dollar Cost of Recent US Wars (In Billions of $US Dollars) Graph adapted from data provided in Costs of Major U.S. Wars by the Congressional Research Service. July pg. 5 17

18 The Declining Economic Burden of War Source: Dept. of Defense. Fiscal Year 2011 Budget Request: Summary Justifications. Washington DC: Dept. of the Comptroller. February pg 3 18

19 The Declining Economic Burden of War Graph adapted from data provided in Costs of Major U.S. Wars by the Congressional Research Service. July pg. 5 19

20 % 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% The Budget Impact of Hot and Cold Wars Defense Spending as a Percentage of Total Federal Outlays WWII Korean War Vietnam War Reagan Build-up Clinton Era Source: Dept. of Defense. Fiscal Year 2011 Budget Request: Summary Justifications. Washington DC: Dept. of the Comptroller. February pg 3 20

21 DoD Estimates of Cost of Wartime Operations

22 22 Costing and Budgeting Current and Future Overseas Contingency Operations KEY POINTS: 1.The US has funded OEF and OIF mainly through supplemental, emergency spending bills. 2.The approach of supplemental spending has made the process of determining the real costs of the wars extremely difficult. 3.Past war costs are highly obscure and difficult to ascertain: the CBO, GAO, CRS and DOD all arrive at different estimates. ANALYSIS: Funding OEF and OIF through emergency supplemental funding requests obscures and tends to underestimate the real costs of both wars and makes long-term planning difficult for both civilian and military leaders. As a result, the job of prioritizing various federal spending titles becomes much more difficult for federal policymakers. Similarly, year-to-year budgetary inconsistency caused by over reliance on supplemental funding makes it difficult for military leaders to form accurate expectations of future funding upon which military leaders can then adjust long-term operational and force structure strategies. This issue is especially troubling given the necessity of consistency and long-term commitment in executing successful COIN strategy.

23 Over-Reliance on Emergency Supplementary Funding for OCO From FY 2002 to FY 2009, Congress passed 17 emergency funding bills to fund operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. These emergency funding requests total $822.1 billion (FY 2009 dollars). The 2010 Supplemental OCO request constituted 20.2% of total FY 2010 OCO funding. Why has the DOD relied upon supplementary funding for OCO? By labeling funding as emergency, the DOD can bypass budgetary constraints set forth by Congress at the beginning of the FY. Emergency supplementals are typically proposed during the middle of the FY when Congress has less time to review the specifics of the funding request. Mid-year emergency supplementals bypass review from the appropriations committees. By separating war funding out from the regular budget, the DOD can politically strong-arm Congress into quickly passing its funding request politicians do not want to be seen as not supporting the troops overseas. Adapted from: The White House. President Barack Obama Letter to OMB Requesting Emergency Funding for Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. The White House: Washington DC. April And Dept. of the Comptroller. Budget Request Summary Justifications. DOD: Washington DC. March And Shaun Waterman, Cost of War: Institutionalizing the War on Terror, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Affairs/Security-Watch/Detail/?lng=en&id=

24 Cost Estimates are Dubious: Iraq War as a Case Study Reliance on emergency OCO funding has obscured the real costs of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Obscurity of war costs leads to uncertain resource management and allocation is a further, although perhaps intangible, cost in itself. By perpetually underestimating the costs of war, supplemental war funding has essentially misled politicians into believing more discretionary funding is available that what actually is. This in turn leads to inefficient policymaking and deeper deficit spending. Some of the best work to date has been by Amy Belasco of the CRS. It attempts to combine the budget authority cost of the war for both the Department of Defense and Department of State. The Iraq War totals $709 billion for FY2003-FY2010 in the January 2010 estimate by the CBO. But, the FY 2010 estimates do not include a guesstimate for the ultimate cost of the supplemental request, which has yet to be approved by Congress. The GAO has provided estimates in terms of obligations. The costs are much lower because they do not include the authorized future costs in the CRS estimate and they do not include FY2008. The total cost of the war to DOD through FY2007 is shown as $378.1 billion. Regardless, the GAO, CBO, CRS and DOD all arrive at different estimates of the actual war costs. Source: CBO, Budget and Economic Outlook for Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020, January, 2010, p. 7 24

25 Earlier Estimates of Impact of Supplementals on DoD Budget: FY1999-FY2009 (in $US billions) Source: Adapted by Anthony C. Cordesman from data provided by Office of the Undersecretary of Defense (Comptroller), National Defense Budget Estimates for 2008, Washington, Department of Defense, March

26 Current DoD Estimate of the Impact of Wartime Supplementals: FY2001-FY2015 (in $US billions) Source: Office of the Undersecretary of Defense (Comptroller), Fiscal Year 2011 Budget Request: Summary Justifications. Washington, Department of Defense, February

27 Progress in Including War Costs in FY 2011 Budget Request The current Administration s policy is to institutionalize war funding into the initial budget request. OCO funding is still submitted in a separate, supplemental request but is submitted simultaneously with the FY 2011 base budget request. This supplemental request must also through the appropriations committees. Therefore, Congress now has more oversight on OCO funding than it has in the past. A brief comparison of OCO funding in FY 2010 and FY 2011 seems to corroborate the Administrations claims. The FY 2011 Base OCO request represents a 22.5% increase of the base request in FY In other words, the FY 2011 Base OCO request is only 2.3% less than total FY 2010 OCO funding. However, even if the DOD submitted a more honest budget this year, the likelihood of an FY 2011 emergency OCO request hinges on developments in the Afghanistan surge, which are inherently unpredictable. Adapted from: The White House. President Barack Obama Letter to OMB Requesting Emergency Funding for Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. The White House: Washington DC. April And Dept. of the Comptroller. Budget Request Summary Justifications. DOD: Washington DC. March

28 Projected Cost of War to DoD: FY2010-FY2011 (in $US billions) Source: Office of the Under Secretary of the Comptroller, FY2011 Budget Request: Overview, February 2011, p

29 Adapted from: US Dept. of Defense. Fiscal Year 2011 Budget Request: Summary Justifications. Dept of the Comptroller: Washington DC. February

30 Adapted from: US Dept. of Defense. Fiscal Year 2011: Summary Justification. Dept of the Comptroller: Washington DC. February

31 Adapted from: US Dept. of Defense. Fiscal Year 2010 Budget Request: Summary Justifications. Dept of the Comptroller: Washington DC. May

32 The Overseas Contingency Operations Request for FY 2011: Operations and Force Protection 100 Operations (FY 2011 $US Billions) 20 Force Protection (FY 2011 $US Billions) , Total , Total 89.4 Supplemental 15.2 Previously Requested , Total , Total 12 Supplemental 3.3 Previously Requested Adapted from: US Dept. of Defense. Fiscal Year 2011 Budget Request: Summary Justifications. Dept of the Comptroller: Washington DC. February

33 The Overseas Contingency Operations Request for FY 2011: Military Intelligence and IED Defeat 8 Military Intelligence Program (FY 2011 $US Billions) 3.5 IED Defeat Program (FY 2011 $US Billions) , Total , Total 7.0 Supplemental 1.3 Previously Requested , Total , Total 3.3 Supplemental 0.4 Previously Requested Adapted from: US Dept. of Defense. Fiscal Year 2011 Budget Request: Summary Justifications. Dept of the Comptroller: Washington DC. February

34 Adapted from: US Dept. of Defense. Fiscal Year 2011 Budget Request: Summary Justifications. Dept of the Comptroller: Washington DC. February

35 GAO Estimates of Cost of Wartime Operations

36 The Baseline: GAO Estimate of Cost of War To DOD Through FY2008 Source: GAO R. GWOT. September pg 7. 36

37 GAO Estimate of Cost of War To DOD Through FY2008 Adapted from: GAO R. GWOT. 30 March pg 6. 37

38 GAO Estimate of Cost of War To DOD Through FY2009 Adapted from: GAO R. GWOT. 30 March pg 4. 38

39 The Baseline: GAO Estimate of Cost of War To DOD Through FY2011 Source: GAO R. OCO. July pg

40 The Baseline: GAO Estimate of Cost of War To DOD Through FY2011 Source: GAO R. OCO. July pg

41 CRS Estimates of Cost of Wartime Operations

42 CRS Estimate of Changing War Costs Adapted from: Belasco, A. Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY : Cost and Other Potential Issues. Washington DC: CRS. July

43 CRS Estimate of Annual Spending on the Afghan Wars by Category FY : Cumulative Source: Adapted by Jordan D Amato from data provided by Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11. Congressional Research Services (RL33110). Updated, 16 July

44 CRS Estimate of Total Spent on Iraq and Afghan Wars FY 2001 FY2011: By Year Source: Adapted by Jordan D Amato from data provided by Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11. Congressional Research Services (RL33110). Updated, 16 July

45 Afghan War Costs Rise as Iraq War Cost Drops: FY2001-FY2011 Source: Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11, Congressional Research Service, RL33110 CRS Report RL30588, July 16,

46 CRS Estimate of Total Spent on Iraq and Afghan Wars FY 2001 FY2011: Cumulative Source: Adapted by Jordan D Amato from data provided by Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11. Congressional Research Services (RL33110). Updated, 16 July

47 CRS Estimate of Average Monthly Spending on Iraq and Afghan Wars FY 2001 FY2011 Source: Adapted by Jordan D Amato from data provided by Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11. Congressional Research Services (RL33110). Updated, 16 July

48 (Billions of $USD) CRS Estimate of Annual Cumulative Spending on Iraq and Afghan Wars by Agency FY FY Fail to react to insurgency until FY06. Only seriously react in FY10, near doubling FY09 Total. State/AID (civil side of spending on population centric war remains minimal FY01/02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 Enacted FY10 Total w Request FY11 Request DoD State/USAID VA Medical Source: Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11. Congressional Research Services (RL33110). Updated, 16 July

49 CRS Estimate of Annual Cumulative Spending on Iraq and Afghan Wars by Agency FY FY2011 Total = 1,085.5 Total = 1,291.3 Total = 1,462 Source: Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11. Congressional Research Services (RL33110). Updated, 16 July

50 (Billions of $USD) CRS Estimate of Average Monthly DOD Spending on Iraq and Afghan Wars FY FY FY01&02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 Enacted FY10 Supp Request FY11 Request Cum Enacted: FY01-10 Iraq Afghanistan Cum: FY01-11 w Pending Reqs Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from data provided by Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11. Congressional Research Services (RL33110). Updated, 16 July

51 Billions of $USD CRS Estimate of Annual Foreign Aid Spending on Iraq and Afghan Wars FY 2001 FY FY01&0 2 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 Enacte d FY10 Supp Reques t FY11 Reques t Cum Enacte d: FY01-10 Iraq Afghanistan Cum Total: FY01-11 Inc Pendin g Reqs Source: Adapted by Jordan D Amato from data provided by Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11. Congressional Research Services (RL33110). Updated, 16 July

52 CRS Estimate of Annual US Aid Spending Iraqi and Afghan Security Forces FY Source: Adapted by Jordan D Amato from data provided by Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11. Congressional Research Services (RL33110). Updated, 16 July

53 CRS Estimate of Annual and Cumulative Total Spending on the Iraq and Afghan Wars: FY2001-FY2011 Source: Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11, Congressional Research Service, RL33110 CRS Report RL30588, July 16,

54 CRS Estimate of Annual and Cumulative Total Spending on the Iraq and Afghan Wars: FY2001-FY2011 Source: Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11, Congressional Research Service, RL33110 CRS Report RL30588, July 16,

55 CRS Estimate of Annual and Cumulative Spending by Agency on the Iraq and Afghan Wars: FY2001-FY2011 Source: Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11, Congressional Research Service, RL33110 CRS Report RL30588, July 16,

56 CRS Estimate of the Guns to Butter Ratio in the Iraq and Afghan Wars: FY2001-FY2011 Source: Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11, Congressional Research Service, RL33110 CRS Report RL30588, July 16,

57 CBO Estimates of Cost of Wartime Operations

58 CBO Estimate of US Spending on Operations Funding for Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and for Related Activities Since September 2001, lawmakers have provided slightly more than $1.1 trillion in budget authority for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and related activities (see the table at right). That amount includes funding for military and diplomatic operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and certain other regions; for some veterans benefits and services; and for related actions of the Department of Justice. Appropriations specifically designated for those purposes averaged about $100 billion a year from 2003 through 2006, rose to $171 billion in 2007 and $187billion in 2008, and then declined to $155 billion last year. For 2010, the Congress has appropriated $164 billion for such activities, including about $34 billion provided in the recently enacted Supplemental Appropriations Act, Funding to date for military operations and other defense activities totals $999 billion, most of which has gone to the Department of Defense (DoD). Lawmakers have also provided $53 billion to train and equip indigenous security forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. In addition, $54 billion has been pro- vided for diplomatic operations and foreign aid to Iraq, Afghanistan, and other countries that are assisting the United States in those efforts. DoD reports that in fiscal year 2010, obligations for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and for related activities have averaged $10.6 billion per month (through May, the last month for which data are available). That monthly average is about $800 million less than the amount reported for Operation Enduring Freedom (in and around Afghanistan) accounts for 51 percent of the obligations in 2010 up from 34 percent in 2009 and 20percent in Operation Iraqi Freedom accounts for 49 percent of those obligations, down from 65 percent in 2009 and 80 percent in Additional security missions that have taken place in the United States since the terror- ist attacks of September 11, 2001,such as combat air patrols over Washington, D.C., and New York City, known as Operation Noble Eagle account for less than 1 percent of obligations in Because most appropriations for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and for related activities appear in the same budget accounts as appropriations for DoD s other functions, it is impossible to determine precisely how much has been spent on those activities. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the $1,052 billion appropriated since 2001 for military operations, other defense activities, and indigenous security forces in those two countries resulted in outlays of about $730 billion through 2009, with about $155 billion of that amount spent in Of the $54 billion appropriated for international affairs activities related to the war efforts, about $40 billion was spent through 2009, CBO estimates, including $5 billion in In total, outlays for all of those activities amounted to about $160 billion last year. On the basis of the sums appropriated for 2010, outlays will total about $170 billion this year, in CBO s estimation. Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook, August 2010, Box-1-3, p

59 140 CBO Estimate of Comparative Total Annual US Spending on Afghan and Iraq Wars: FY2001-FY2010 (BA in Billions of $USD) FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY Iraq War * Afghan War * TOTAL 14* 19* 88* 111* 81* 120* 171* 187* 155* 164* 1,109* Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook, August 2010, Box-1-3, p

60 Explanation of CBO Estimate of US Spending a. CBO estimated the funding provided for Operation Iraqi Freedom by allocating funds on the basis of information in budget justification materials from the Department of Defense and in monthly reports on the department s obligations. b. Includes Operation Enduring Freedom (in and around Afghanistan), Operation Noble Eagle (homeland security missions, such as combat air patrols, in the United States), the restructuring of Army and Marine Corps units, classified activities other than those funded by appropriations for the Iraq Freedom Fund, efforts to increase the size of the Army and Marine Corps, and other operations. (For 2005 through 2010, funding for Operation Noble Eagle has been intermingled with regular appropriations for the Department of Defense; that funding is not included in this table.) c. Funding for indigenous security forces is used to train and equip local military and police units in Iraq and Afghanistan. That funding was appropriated in accounts for diplomatic operations and foreign aid (budget function 150) in 2004 and in accounts for defense (budget function 050) starting in d. In 2010, most funding for diplomatic operations in, and foreign aid to, countries helping the United States fight terrorism has been in regular appropriations and cannot be separated from appropriations for activities unrelated to those operations. Numbers shown here for 2010 include only funding provided in the Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2010 (Public Law ). e. Includes funding for some veterans benefits and services, as well as certain activities of the Department of Justice. Excludes about $8 billion in spending by the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) for the incremental costs of medical care, disability compensation, and survivor benefits for veterans of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and related activities. That amount was based on CBO s estimates of spending from regular appropriations for VA and was not explicitly appropriated for war-related expenses. Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook, August 2010, Box-1-3, p

61 CBO Estimate of Total Annual US Spending on Afghan and Iraq Wars: FY2001-FY (BA in Billions of $USD) FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 TOTAL *14 *19 *88 *111 *81 *120 *171 *187 *155 *164 *1,109 AFGHANISTAN --Defense Ops & Activities *347 --ANSF Development *29 --Diplomatic Ops & Act. * *23 --Other * * 1 1 * 0 *2 --Subtotal *14 *20 *39 *23 *21 *25 *49 *48 *61 *102 *402 IRAQ --Defense Ops & Activities *652 --INSF Development *24 --Diplomatic Ops & Act *31 --Other * * 1 1 * 0 *2 --Subtotal *0 *0 *49 *88 *59 *95 *123 *140 *94 *61 * Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook, August 2010, Box-1-3, p

62 Key Cost Factors: Troop Levels

63 US Troop Levels: Build-Up in Afghanistan versus Build Up in Iraq: Source: Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11, Congressional Research Service, RL33110 CRS Report RL30588, July 16, 2010; Afghanistan: Post-Taliban Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy, by Kenneth Katzman; CRS Report RL31339, Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security, by Kenneth Katzman; CRS Report RL34387, Operation Iraqi Freedom: Strategies, Approaches, Results, and Issues for Congress, by Catherine Dale; CRS Report R40156, War in Afghanistan: Strategy, Military Operations, and Issues for Congress, by Steve Bowman and Catherine Dale. Notes: Actuals through May 2010; CRS estimates for June-September Figure design by Amber Wilhelm, CRS Graphics. 63

64 CRS Estimate of Troop Levels and Pay Adapted from: Belasco, A. Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY : Cost and Other Potential Issues. Washington DC: CRS. July

65 CRS Estimates How Force Levels Shift Adapted from: Belasco, A. Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY : Cost and Other Potential Issues. Washington DC: CRS. July

66 CRS Estimate Troop Levels: Possible Reductions in Iraq, Increase in Afghanistan Adapted from: Belasco, A. Troop Levels in the Afghan and Iraq Wars, FY : Cost and Other Potential Issues. Washington DC: CRS. July

67 Spotlighting Afghan War Costs

68 CBO Estimate of Annual US Spending on Afghan War: FY2001-FY2010 (BA in Billions of $USD) FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY AFGHANISTAN --Defense Ops & Activities *347 --ANSF Development *29 --Diplomatic Ops & Act. * *23 --Other * * 1 1 * 0 *2 --Subtotal *14 *20 *39 *23 *21 *25 *49 *48 *61 *102 *402 Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook, August 2010, Box-1-3, p. 15; * = $0 to $499 million 68

69 CBO Estimate of Annual US Spending on Afghan War By Category: FY2001-FY2010 (BA in Billions of $USD) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY AFGHANISTAN --Defense Ops & Activities *347 --ANSF Development *29 --Diplomatic Ops & Act. * *23 --Other * * 1 1 * 0 *2 --Subtotal *14 *20 *39 *23 *21 *25 *49 *48 *61 *102 *402 Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook, August 2010, Box-1-3, p

70 CRS Estimate of Annual and Cumulative Spending by Agency on the Afghan War: FY2001-FY2011 Source: Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11, Congressional Research Service, RL33110 CRS Report RL30588, July 16,

71 CRS Estimate of The Guns to Butter Ratio: Comparative Spending by Agency on the Afghan War: FY2001-FY2011 Source: Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11, Congressional Research Service, RL33110 CRS Report RL30588, July 16,

72 CRS Estimate of Annual Spending on the Afghan War by Agency FY 2001 FY2011: By Year Source: Adapted by Jordan D Amato from data provided by Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11. Congressional Research Services (RL33110). Updated, 16 July

73 (Billions of $USD) CRS Estimate of Average Monthly Spending on Afghan War FY 2001 FY OEF FY01&02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 Enacted FY10 Supp Request OEF FY11 Request Source: Adapted by Jordan D Amato from data provided by Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11. Congressional Research Services (RL33110). Updated, 16 July

74 (Billions of $USD) CRS Estimate of Average Monthly DOD Spending on Afghan War FY FY Afghanistan FY01&02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 Enacted FY10 Supp Request FY11 Request Cum Enacted: FY01-10 Afghanistan Cum: FY01-11 w Pending Reqs Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from data provided by Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11. Congressional Research Services (RL33110). Updated, 16 July

75 Billions of $USD CRS Estimate of Annual Foreign Aid Spending on Afghan War FY 2001 FY FY01& 02 Afghanistan FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 Enacte d FY10 Supp Reque st FY11 Reque st Cum Enacte d: FY01-10 Cum Total: FY01-11 Inc Pendin g Reqs Afghanistan Source: Adapted by Jordan D Amato from data provided by Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11. Congressional Research Services (RL33110). Updated, 16 July

76 (Billions of $USD) CRS Estimate of Annual US Aid Spending on Afghan Security Forces FY FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY10 Supp Request FY11 Request Afghan Security Forces Fund Toal Source: Adapted by Jordan D Amato from data provided by Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11. Congressional Research Services (RL33110). Updated, 16 July

77 Gross Strategic Negligence in ANSF Development (Comparative Spending on the Afghan and Iraqi Security Forces Funds: FY2004-FY2011 In Current $US Billions) Source: Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11, Congressional Research Service, RL33110 CRS Report RL30588, July 16, 2010, and Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Comptoller)/CFO, US Department of Defense FY2011 Budget Request, February 2010, p

78 (Total Authorized Manning) Rushing the ANSF Development Goals Before Trainers and Executed Programs Are in Place: , , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Nov 2009 Oct 2010 Goal Oct 2011 Goal Actual ANA 97, , ,600 ANP 93, , ,000 Source: Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Comptoller)/CFO, US Department of Defense FY2011 Budget Request, February 2010, p

79 Major Flow of ESF Aid The FY 2010 Consolidated Appropriations Act provides almost $2.04 billion for ESF programs in Afghanistan. As of March 31, 2010, this brings the cumulative total funding for the ESF to nearly $9.74 billion, more than 18.9% of total U.S. assistance to the reconstruction effort. As of March 31, 2010, USAID reported that of this amount, more than $7.57 billion had been obligated, of which more than $5.39 billion has been disbursed.27 USAID reported that cumulative obligations as of March 31, 2010, increased by more than $36.81 million over cumulative obligations as of December 31, In addition, cumulative disbursements as of March 31, 2010, increased by nearly $ million over cumulative disbursements as of December 31, Source: SIGAR, Quarterly Report, July 2010, p

80 Massive Increase in CERP Aid The FY 2010 DoD Appropriations Act provides $1.20 billion for CERP to promote and support development activities. Of this amount, $1.00 billion is for initiatives in Afghanistan.14 This brings the cumulative total funding for CERP to nearly $2.64 billion - more than 5.1% of total U.S. reconstruction assistance in Afghanistan.15 As of June 30, 2010, DoD reported that of this amount, nearly $1.64 billion had been obligated, of which more than $1.24 billion has been disbursed. Source: SIGAR, Quarterly Report, July 2010, pp

81 Half of All US Aid Goes to ANSF As of June 30, 2010, nearly $25.23 billion had been appropriated to the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) for building the ANSF- almost 49.0% of total U.S. reconstruction assistance in Afghanistan. DoD reported that of this amount, more than $21.83 billion had been obligated, of which nearly $20.79 billion had been disbursed.6 Figure 3.4 displays the amounts made available for the ASFF by fiscal year. DoD reported that cumulative obligations as of June 30, 2010, increased by more than $1.56 billion over cumulative obligations as of March 31, Cumulative disbursements as of June 30, 2010, increased by nearly $2.37 billion over cumulative disbursements as of March 31, As of June 30, 2010, DoD had disbursed nearly $20.79 billion for ANSF initiatives. Of this amount, nearly $13.62 billion was disbursed for the ANA and nearly $7.08 billion for the ANP; the remaining $0.09 billion was directed to related activities.10 As shown in Figure 3.6, of the funds disbursed for the ANA, the largest portion -- nearly $6.25 billion -- supported Equipment and Transportation. Of the funds disbursed for the ANP, the largest portion -- nearly $1.94 billion --also supported Equipment and Transportation. Source: SIGAR, Quarterly Report, July 2010, p

82 Counternarcotics: 8% of All Aid The DoD CN fund provides support to the counter-narcotics effort in the following ways: Supporting military operations against drug traffickers, expanding Afghan interdiction operations, building the capacity of Afghan law enforcement--including the Afghan Border Police with specialized training, equipment, and facilities As of June 30, 2010, nearly $1.43 billion had been appropriated to DoD for counter-narcotics efforts in Afghanistan - almost 2.8% of total U.S. reconstruction assistance. As of June 30, 2010, more than $2.68 billion had been allotted to INL for INCLE-funded efforts-more than 5.2% of total U.S. reconstruction assistance in Afghanistan. INL reported that of this amount, nearly $2.13 billion had been obligated, of which nearly $1.68 billion had been liquidated. Source: SIGAR, Quarterly Report, July 2010, p. 48, 50 82

83 Spotlighting Iraq War Costs

84 CBO Estimate of Annual US Spending on Iraq War: FY2001-FY2010 (BA in Billions of $USD) FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY IRAQ --Defense Ops & Activities *652 --INSF Development *24 --Diplomatic Ops & Act *31 --Other * * 1 1 * 0 *2 --Subtotal *0 *0 *49 *88 *59 *95 *123 *140 *94 *61 *709 Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook, August 2010, Box-1-3, p. 15; * = $0 to $499 million 84

85 (Billions of $USD) CRS Estimate of Average Monthly Spending on Iraq War FY 2001 FY OIF FY01&02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 Enacted FY10 Supp Request OIF FY11 Request Source: Adapted by Jordan D Amato from data provided by Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11. Congressional Research Services (RL33110). Updated, 16 July

86 CRS Estimate of Average Monthly DOD Spending on Iraq War FY 2001 FY Source: Adapted by Jordan D Amato from data provided by Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11. Congressional Research Services (RL33110). Updated, 16 July

87 (Billions of $USD) CRS Estimate of Annual US Aid Spending on Iraqi Security Forces FY FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY10 Supp Request Iraqi Security Forces Fund FY11 Request Toal Source: Adapted by Jordan D Amato from data provided by Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11. Congressional Research Services (RL33110). Updated, 16 July

88 CRS Estimate of Annual Foreign Aid Spending on Iraq War FY 2001 FY Source: Adapted by Jordan D Amato from data provided by Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11. Congressional Research Services (RL33110). Updated, 16 July

89 Projected Future Costs

90 90 Looking Ahead KEY POINTS: 1. Difficulties associated with accurately assessing past war costs make extrapolating projections of future war costs difficult. 2. Future projections of war costs are highly contingent upon factors exogenous to budgetary choices. ANALYSIS: The obscurity surrounding the real costs of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq to date make extrapolating even baseline war costs in the out years very prone to inaccuracy. Uncertainty surrounding projections of future costs increases exponentially when the influence that conditions on the ground and other exogenous factors are taken into account. The impact these factors can have upon the Administration s decision to increase, sustain or draw-down operations in Iraq and Afghanistan is incredibly difficult to predict accurately. In spite of this, the CBO predicts that Defense spending will continuously decrease as a share of GDP over the next several years.

91 91 The Lower Cost of Having Won Previously, most future cost estimates assumed either a constant level of war or a three to five year decline in spending as the US wins. The CBO has provided other estimates of the DOD budget in outlays if major cuts take place in current deployments. There is also a CBO estimate showing the steady-state cost of maintaining a US presence after the US has helped Iraq achieve a high degree of security and stability. The capital cost of the US maintaining a 55,000 manpower level in strategic overwatch and an advisory role is estimated to be $4-8 billion. The annual cost is estimated to be $10 billion. The capital cost of the US maintaining a 55,000 manpower level that both supports Iraqi forces in combat and provides an advisory role is estimated to be $8 billion. The annual cost is estimated to be $25 billion.

92 Ending Conflicts Could Lower the Baseline Budget Adapted from: CBO. Long Term Implications of the Department of Defense s 2010 Fiscal Budget Submission. Nov pg

93 93 Guesstimating the Long-Term Cost of the Afghan War, Iraq War, and GWOT The baseline budget does not include most war costs. Supplementals are not measures of the cost of the war. There are no reliable DOD cost estimates, and the CRS, CBO, and GAO have each produced different estimates. The full nature of deferred costs is unclear. The Iraq War is driven by externals like Iran, Iraqi accommodation, Iraqi force development and willingness to take over the financial burden. The Afghan War is drive by externals like Pakistan, the role of our allies, and progress in Afghan governance and force development

94 Key Factors Driving Future War-Related Costs Major increases are being made in ground forces with very uncertain mixes of modernization and reset, and allowances for transfers of equipment and supplies to Iraqi and Afghan forces. The CBO does not project the rise in military manpower costs per se, but does project that the future O&M costs of military manpower will rise sharply above the historical trend: By approximately by 20% from FY2006-FY2025 if real-world unbudgeted costs are included. The CBO s estimate of rising military medical costs is stunning: Much of this is not war related, but rather the result of Congressional actions that have effectively raised the entitlement cost of military medical care for the entire military. The vast majority of this cost growth is attributable to growth in medical benefits received by non-active duty military health care members, like retired military and family members of active duty military. 94

95 95 CBO Estimate of the Impact of Current Wars on the Defense Budget Through FY2025 The estimated baseline cost of the defense budget averages $521 billion a year between FY2014 and FY2025 if deployed US combat personnel drop to about 35% of the present total by FY2025 The $521 billion does not include supplementals but does raise the DOD level by 8% to correct for DOD under-costing. The real world cost, with supplementals and correcting for DOD undercosting of the budget would be about $146 billion higher than DOD projects through FY2013, and would average about $621 billion from FY2014-FY2025. The real world operating cost of US forces would be far higher than DOD budgets for. But, even with these cost increases, the percent of GDP spent on defense would still continue to drop, reaching 2-3% by FY2025.

96 CBO Estimate of Costs Associated 30,000 Troop Surge in Afghanistan (In Appropriations of $US Current Billions by Fiscal year) Operations Personnel Other Force Protection Total Source: CBO. CBO s Analysis of Scenarios for Funding the Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq January, 2010 pg 2 96

97 200 CBO Estimates of Future US Spending on Afghan and Iraq Wars: FY2010-FY2020 (BA in Billions of $USD) FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Total Reduce troops deployed to 60,000 by *534 *747 Reduce troops deployed to 30,000 by *297 *416 CBO Baseline Estimate *853 *1,776 Total Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook, August 2010, pp

98 CBO Estimates of Future US Spending on Afghan and Iraq Wars: FY2010-FY2020 (BA in Billions of $USD) Estimates are based on CBO s August 2010 projections of discretionary spending for the next 10 years include outlays for operations in Afghanistan and Iraq and for related activities. The outlays projected in the baseline come from budget authority provided for those purposes in 2009 and prior years, the $164 billion in budget authority provided for 2010, and the $1.8 trillion that is assumed to be appropriated over the period (under the assumption that annual funding is set at $164 billion plus adjustments for anticipated inflation, in accordance with the rules governing baseline projections). In coming years, the funding required for war-related activities in Iraq, Afghanistan, or other countries may eventually be smaller than the amounts in the baseline if the number of deployed troops and the pace of operations diminish over time. Considerable uncertainty exists about future military operations; thus, CBO has formulated two budget scenarios involving reduced deployment of U.S. forces to Afghanistan and Iraq or to future military actions elsewhere in the world. (Many other scenarios some costing more and some less are also possible.) In 2009, the number of U.S. active-duty, Reserve, and National Guard personnel deployed for war-related activities averaged about 220,000, CBO estimates. The average number of personnel deployed in 2010 would decrease from that number in one scenario and increase in the other. Force levels would decline thereafter in both scenarios but at different rates and to different sustained levels. (Those levels could represent various allocations of forces among Afghanistan, Iraq, and other areas.) In the first scenario, average troop levels would drop significantly over a three-year period from roughly 200,000 this year to 150,000 in 2011, 65,000 in 2012, and 30,000 by the beginning of That number of deployed personnel would be sustained through 2020 (although not necessarily in Afghanistan and Iraq). Under that scenario, total discretionary outlays between 2011 and 2020 would be about $1.2 trillion less than the amount projected in CBO s baseline. In the second scenario, the number of military personnel deployed for war-related purposes would rise to an average of 230,000 in 2010 and 2011 and then decline more gradually and to a higher sustained level than in the first scenario. The average number of deployed troops would decrease to 195,000 in 2012, 135,000 in 2013, 80,000 in 2014, and 60,000 in 2015 and thereafter. Under that scenario, total discretionary outlays over the period would be $914 billion less than the amount in the baseline. Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook, August 2010, pp

99 (BA in Billions of $USD) CBO Estimates of Future US Spending on Afghan and Iraq Wars: FY2010-FY FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Reduce troops deployed to 60,000 by Reduce troops deployed to 30,000 by CBO Baseline Estimate Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook, August 2010, pp

100 CBO Estimates of Future US Spending on Afghan and Iraq Wars: FY2010-FY2020 Estimates are based on CBO s August 2010 projections of discretionary spending for the next 10 years include outlays for operations in Afghanistan and Iraq and for related activities. The outlays projected in the baseline come from budget authority provided for those purposes in 2009 and prior years, the $164 billion in budget authority provided for 2010, and the $1.8 trillion that is assumed to be appropriated over the period (under the assumption that annual funding is set at $164 billion plus adjustments for anticipated inflation, in accordance with the rules governing baseline projections). In coming years, the funding required for war-related activities in Iraq, Afghanistan, or other countries may eventually be smaller than the amounts in the baseline if the number of deployed troops and the pace of operations diminish over time. Considerable uncertainty exists about future military operations; thus, CBO has formulated two budget scenarios involving reduced deployment of U.S. forces to Afghanistan and Iraq or to future military actions elsewhere in the world. (Many other scenarios some costing more and some less are also possible.) In 2009, the number of U.S. active-duty, Reserve, and National Guard personnel deployed for war-related activities averaged about 220,000, CBO estimates. The average number of personnel deployed in 2010 would decrease from that number in one scenario and increase in the other. Force levels would decline thereafter in both scenarios but at different rates and to different sustained levels. (Those levels could represent various allocations of forces among Afghanistan, Iraq, and other areas.) In the first scenario, average troop levels would drop significantly over a three-year period from roughly 200,000 this year to 150,000 in 2011, 65,000 in 2012, and 30,000 by the beginning of That number of deployed personnel would be sustained through 2020 (although not necessarily in Afghanistan and Iraq). Under that scenario, total discretionary outlays between 2011 and 2020 would be about $1.2 trillion less than the amount projected in CBO s baseline. In the second scenario, the number of military personnel deployed for war-related purposes would rise to an aver- age of 230,000 in 2010 and 2011 and then decline more gradually and to a higher sustained level than in the first scenario. The average number of deployed troops would decrease to 195,000 in 2012, 135,000 in 2013, 80,000 in 2014, and 60,000 in 2015 and thereafter. Under that scenario, total discretionary outlays over the period would be $914 billion less than the amount in the baseline. Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook, August 2010, pp

101 CBO Estimate of Possible Future Savings From Reduced Wartime Expenditures ($US Billions) Source: CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook: FY , January 2010, pp

102 CBO Estimate of Affects on Deficit with Different Withdrawal Rates from Afghan and Iraq Wars Activities refers to total number of troops deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan. A positive number indicates an decrease in the CBO s projected baseline budget e.g. more funds are available for other uses. Negative numbers indicate an increase in the deficit. Note: These numbers do not include additional costs incurred from debt service (In $US Current Billions by Fiscal year) Activities to 30,000 by Activities to 60,000 by Source: CBO, The Budget and Economic Outlook: FY , January 2009, pp

103 Future War Costs are Highly Unpredictable Ultimately, projections of future war costs must be taken with a grain of salt. Future war costs are highly contingent upon factors exogenous to the budgetary decisions. Exogenous factors include the whole host of events and circumstances outside the immediate control of the President, Congress and the DOD, such as conditions on the ground and political will. Obscurity in war cost accounting since the beginning of GWOT operations obfuscates any effort to extrapolate future costs based on past and present data. Source: Todd Harrison, Analysis of the FY 2011 Defense Budget, June 2010, pp

104 Guesstimate of Annual and Cumulative Cost of Worst Cost Success in the Afghan War: FY2010-FY2020 (In Current $US Billions) Extremely intense fighting with dropping allied support. --"Supplemental" in FY Make decisive gains by FY15. --US and ISAF withdrawal cautiously during FY15-FY17 --Maintain significant support funding of Afghan forces and government through FY2020 & beyond --DoD pays cost of police as well as armed forces, and protection of remaining civil & military advisory presence though FY FY01/ 02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 Enact ed FY10 Total w Cum FY01- FY10 DoD *284.3* *568.5*852.8 State/USAID *18.5 * *57.6 *76.1 VA Me dical *1.0 * *6.7 *7.7 Total War Funding *20.8 *14.7 *14.5 *20 *19 *39.2 *43.5 *59.5 *72.7 *104.8*303.8*455.2*119.4*126.4*121.4*109.3 *91.9 *29.2 *13.1 *10.1 *9.1 *9.1 *632.8*936.6 Cum FY01- FY11 FY11 Requ est FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Total Total FY11- FY01- FY20 FY20 Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from data in Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11, Congressional Research Service, RL33110 CRS Report RL30588, July 16,

105 A High Cost Guesstimate of Strategic Partnership: FY2011-FY2015 (in $US billions) State maintains 5 facilities and provides security. State takes over police training support. No US combat role after FY2011. US provides FMS aid to Iraqi forces to give defense capability against Iran FY10 Enacted FY10 Total w Request FY11 Request FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 Cum -FY01 FY10 Cum -FY01 FY10 w State & AID * 43.4* VA Medical * 6.5* DoD * 752.0* Total 62.8* 65.8* 51.1* 25* 12.4* 12.4* 12.4* 747.6* 801.9* Source: Estimate by Anthony H. Cordesman based on Amy Belasco, The Cost of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Other Global War on Terror Operations Since 9/11, Congressional Research Service, RL33110 CRS Report RL30588, July 16,

106 CSBA Estimate of US DOD Cost of Afghan and Iraq Wars: FY2002-FY2015 Source: Todd Harrison, Analysis of the FY 2011 Defense Budget, CSBA, June 2010, p

107 107 CSBA s Projections of Future War Costs: High Estimate The CSBA formulates a projection of future war costs by multiplying per troop costs by assumed troop levels. The high estimates troop level assumptions are: For Afghanistan: Troop levels remain at peak in Afghanistan throughout FY Then decline by 15,000 per year. Reach 55,000 in FY For Iraq: Troop level remains constant at 40,000 through FY ,000 are withdraw annually thereafter. Graphs adapted from: Todd Harrison, Analysis of the FY 2011 Defense Budget, June 2010, pp 10.

108 108 CSBA s Projections of Future War Costs: Low Estimate The low estimates troop level assumptions are: For Afghanistan: Return to pre-surge troop levels by FY Withdraw 20,000 annually thereafter. Only 10,000 remain in FY For Iraq: Withdrawal of forces is completed in FY No forces remain in country from FY 2013 forward. Graphs adapted from: Todd Harrison, Analysis of the FY 2011 Defense Budget, June 2010, pp 10.

109 Homeland Security: The Cost of the Other War

110 (BA in Current $US Billions) 110 The Other Defense (Wartime) Budget: Homeland Security Funding: FY2010-FY , , , , , , , FY09 Enacted FY09 Suppleme ntal/emer gency FY10 Enacted FY10 Suppleme ntal/emer gency FY11 Request DoD 19, , , Total Non-DoD, 43, , , , Source: Topics Report, Section 23. Homeland Security Analysis, Table 32-1, US Budget Request for FY2011, p. 379.

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